12 Jul 2005
C'mon Feel the Math! Our good friend William Krasker is back, using his statistical model to ask the question: Does overtime -- and the presence of a third possible outcome, a tie -- change the optimal strategy for certain situations? The answer: Yes, and it matters more later in the season because teams know how a tie will affect their playoff chances. As an example, Krasker shows how a St. Louis decision to punt in overtime of Week 17 was the wrong decision, even though it would usually be the right decision. (The Rams had good luck and things worked out anyway.) By the way, there's a link to skip the math and I recommend using it.
48 comments, Last at 18 Jul 2005, 11:24pm by Miles
A look at fourth-down decision making in 2014 highlights Sean Payton, Marc Trestman, and... wait, this can't be right... Jim Caldwell? Plus: Chip Kelly may be less aggressive than you think he is.