07 Dec 2005
With Oakland and the Jets set to square off, it's time to debate Curtis Martin and LaMont Jordan again. "Martin was coming off a career year - he won the NFL rushing title - and there was no way to predict his production would decline this dramatically," says Rich Cimini of the New York Daily News.
Martin current stats, projected to 16 games:
980 rushing yards, 157 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns
Martin projection from PFP 2005:
1067 rushing yards, 174 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns
I guess he's right, nobody could predict his production would decline this dramatically. Just ALMOST this dramatically. (The strange part about this is that Cimini, um, "borrowed liberally" from my Jets chapter in his preseason Jets preview, so we know he saw this projection.)
32 comments, Last at 08 Dec 2005, 9:18pm by Travis
Thanks a lot, Dak Prescott. Now more people will think the fourth round is still a gold mine for quarterbacks, but the data says otherwise. The update to our quarterback draft study for 1994-2016 shows little has changed: finding a good QB is really hard.