Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

21 Nov 2006

Aaron Rodgers Out for the Season

Brett Favre cannot be stopped and anyone who gets in his way will be destroyed. Or something like that. Aaron Rodgers is done for the season with a broken foot and rookie Ingle Martin is now the backup.

Posted by: P. Ryan Wilson on 21 Nov 2006

29 comments, Last at 21 Nov 2006, 11:11pm by Arkaein

Comments

1
by SJM (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 2:07am

Ingle Martin? I was hoping for Tee Martin.

2
by Erasmus (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 2:48am

what Brock Berlin was not around?

3
by throughthelookingglass (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 3:26am

Aaron, we hardly knew ye.

4
by What (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 3:41am

Is it too late to trade for Vinny Testerverde??

5
by Ivarsson, Sweden (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 5:35am

Apparently it's a little bit of hit-or-miss when it comes to GB QB durability.

6
by Rick (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 8:35am

That's just weird. I guess there's no QB controversy in Green Bay this season.

7
by cabbage (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 11:25am

Is aaron Rogders hopping on the Rex Grossman career path?

8
by PackerNation (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 11:26am

Although the Fawning Legion of Adoring Worshippers (FLAWs)maintain Brett is playing great, he's really been an average/below average NFL QB this year by quite a few measures.

There was hope at least that Rodgers might get some time to show something towards the end of the season. Not gonna happen.

So, the Packers will end this offseason with a QB situation that consists of a guy who will be 38 and very much declining or an untested kid.

Time to talk to Jacksonville about trading for Leftwich.

9
by houlie4 (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 11:37am

(sigh) I wish we could have some reasonable middle ground with Favre commentators, it seems like he can either do no wrong, or do no right.

I'm not sure what the "quite a few measures" are that Favre is average or below average in, but he's ranked 8th in DPAR and 10th in DVOA (admittedly these are prior to the NE game I believe). So that's not bad. and certainly above average so far this year.

The guy is not a god. He makes mistakes, sometimes ones that are inexcusable for a QB of his experience. He is of course, declining (but everyone pretty much is past the age of about 30). But he's been pretty good this year, better than last year certainly, and better than average.

And from the small amount I've seen of Rodgers so far, better than him as well. For now anyway. we'll see what the future holds.

My guess is Favre comes back for 1 more year maybe 2. Who knows where that leaves Rodgers. Then again he might retire. Its all speculation.

10
by Parker (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 11:39am

This pretty much proves what I have suspected all along. I'm not going to write down what that is for fear of some kind of Wisconsin style retribution, but I think most of you know what I am talking about.

11
by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 11:39am

Free Ingle Martin!

12
by PackerNation (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 11:40am

#9 Yes, footballoutsiders.com DVOA rates him pretty well. It also had Green Bay's defense rated higher than New England's going into that game. It's a good measure, but not a perfect one.

Click on my name and go to the website and read the first article. I think that'll clear up what I'm talking about when I say "quite a few measures".

Or go to Stats.com and look for yourself at his situational splits.

He's not above average this year. He's average to below average pretty much across the board.

13
by Charles the Philly Homer (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 11:56am

RE 12, 8:

Byron Leftwich doesn't seem like a panacea to me. He's rated very poorly in terms of DVOA this season and in previous seasons. He also doesn't possess the kind of anecdotal/subjective evidence for being great in the NFL like winning a Super Bowl or being a comeback artist or performing in the playoffs.

Play Rodgers and draft a late-rounder. Build the lines for now to protect him, the Packers seem pretty good at the skill positions.

14
by B (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 12:06pm

12: DVOA ranks Favre 10th, the rankings on your site have him about 13th. Those are pretty close, and neither is "below average" there are 32 starting QBs in the league and 39 have completed at least 60 passes. There isn't a guy without a starting job who can step in and perform better than Favre is now. Of course, if he gets injured again, the Packers no longer have a backup plan.

15
by PackerNation (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 12:15pm

#14 My rankings are NFC rankings only...not league wide rankings. So you're talking about 13 out of 16, not 13 out of 32. I thought that was stated pretty clearly there.

16
by krugerindustrialsmoothing (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 12:17pm

how much do you think Bledsoe is worth to bring him in for a half a season if only to guarantee that the guy you have waiting in the wings will have wild sucess? Can't anyone else see this pattern developing?

17
by B (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 12:23pm

15: My mistake.
16: Two words: J. P. Losman.

18
by Justanothersteve (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 1:17pm

#17 - J.P. Losman is three words, but good point.

19
by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 2:43pm

Re: 18

Actually it's 2 letters and 1 word.

20
by Heckler (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 2:53pm

During the long dark depression that is the off-season I did watch (sadly) the NFL Networks coverage of the NFL combine one Friday. I remember thinking that Ingle looked great and hoped that even though he came out of Fuhrman someone would pick him up. Didn't follow him after that, but here he is in good positions to play a bit for the Packers. That being said, if I were Packers management, I might be feeling around for a veteran to sign.

21
by Zac (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 3:04pm

Local reports are that the Packers have brought J.T. O'Sullivan, Todd Bouman, and Bradlee Van Pelt in for tryouts.

22
by Arkaein (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 3:21pm

Re 15: your stats on Favre are cherry picked and basically stupid. You measure 4th quarter completion %, why is this more important than other quarters? Comp % inside both the 10 and 20 as two spearate stats? You don't consider INTs at all, which is flat out dumb. DVOA and DPAR are backed by statistical analysis that show what stats actually matter in winning football games. Unless you can give similar justification for your cherry picked stats I see no real merit in them.

23
by cabbage (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 3:27pm

#16 is called the "showalter Method"

24
by PackMan (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 3:54pm

The Packers signed Todd Bouman.

25
by Richie (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 5:10pm

Why would you only rank NFC QB's?

26
by RecoveringPackerFan (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 9:22pm

As I have been in Colorado this season, I haven't seen much of Favre. That said, based on what I have seen and his stats, he is still decent and may have another year of acceptable performance. I am also optimistic that the Pack can develop enough of a line before the Aaron Rodgers experience starts for us that we can run and keep the kid upright enough to be, you know, Viking-esque on offense.

27
by PackerNation (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 9:26pm

I apologize for my poor writing skills.

#25. I clearly stated the reason in the article for ranking only NFC QBs. The source of the information, Stats, Inc. only rates the top 20 and Favre is not in the top 20 in the NFL in numerous categories. So for simplicity's sake, I used NFC rankings because my intention was to show, by comparison, that Favre ranks in the bottom half of starting QBs in many, many categories. I apologize if I didn't make that clear enough in the article.

#22. Stats, Inc. has about 30 splits on a variety of subjects. I did, indeed, "cherry-pick" some of the ones I thought were more relevant to my central point, which is that the Packers aren't getting very good quarterbacking. If you would prefer to do your own research, go to Stats, Inc., and see for yourself. In the vast majority of categories, he's in the bottom half of the rankings.

Specifically, in the redzone, in close games, in the 4th quarter....we're getting very much below average quarterbacking.

And yes, I do think that what a QB does in the 4th quarter is more significant than what he does in the first.

Lastly, I would never disparage DVOA, which I believe is a very good measure which was conceived of and tested by guys a lot smarter than me. But I do not think it is a perfect measure and perhaps somebody could explain how a QB who is so much below average in so many rankings could rank so high in DVOA. For that matter, how could the Packers defense rank higher than New England's in Drive Chart rankings?

28
by ZS (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 11:04pm

Reason #1 why, as a guy who likes the Packers more than the other three NFC North teams, I do not like Aaron Rodgers or the idea of him at QB:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Tedford

29
by Arkaein (not verified) :: Tue, 11/21/2006 - 11:11pm

Re 27: The explanation I can give is that not all stats are equal. You say that 4th quarter is more important that 1st quarter. I disagree as the success or failure of earlier plays influences the later plays. QBs who are successful early rarely have to make a lot of great passes late, and will usually end up handing off a lot more to protect leads created by strong play early. In any case even if one quarter is significantly more important than others, it's weight can't be more than about 35% of an entire game, while most other stats cover an entire game and so should be given more weight.

Also, like I said above you've skipped several very key stats, namely total TD passes, total INTs and INT %, and sacks (which FO has pointed out and Aaron Rodgers made clear on Sunday is not just a product of good protection, Favre's quick release helps a lot here). DPAR in particular recognizes that Favre should be rewarded when the offense relies on him to make such a large number of plays per game, and that he has to make those plays even when the defense is expecting pass. Total TDs and INTs are reflected most strongly in DPAR.

Yes, Favre's completion % and YPA are down this year. But he's protecting the ball so much better than last year, and even quite a bit better than the average QB this year, and this is much more important than any individual stat that you pointed out in your article.