Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

23 Jul 2006

Chiefs, CB Law Agree to Terms

Between Bengals arrests over the weekend, the Kansas City Chiefs signed cornerback Ty Law to a "five year" deal. What are the odds Law is looking for yet another team next offseason?

Posted by: Russell Levine on 23 Jul 2006

28 comments, Last at 25 Jul 2006, 1:27pm by GlennW

Comments

1
by karl (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 8:36pm

Law must love this - skip all the offseason commitments, work out at home, and get a massive signing bonus from herman edwards each year.

2
by KSR (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 8:51pm

I'm kind of surprised he signed before training camp, I had anticipated him waiting it out to see if anyone's starter goes down so he could raise his price. Now the Patriots can use all that cap space to put a giant pile of money on the field across from opposing recievers.

3
by charles 2.0 (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 9:31pm

Now the Patriots can use all that cap space to put a giant pile of money on the field across from opposing recievers.

or they could line the field with their superbowl rings and have recievers slide on their butt when they start running

4
by JRM (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 9:48pm

A few months ago there was a thread here where everyone called Law "stupid" for asking for big money.

My guess is that crow will be on many a plate for tomorrow's lunch, just as it was when Terrell Owens signed a lucrative contract with Dallas.

I'm anxiously awaiting the details of Law's new deal.

5
by NF (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 10:21pm

NYJ 2005 Passing Def. DVOA: -18.1%, 2nd in the NFL.

Kansas City's 2005 Rushing Def. DVOA: -17.4%, 4th in NFL.

Kansas City's 2005 Passing Def. DVOA: 1.0%, 20th in the NFL.

To quote a FO Extra Points description from a while back: Holy perfect match, Batman.

6
by MJK (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 10:41pm

Isn't this a short term fix for the Chiefs? Law and Surtain are certainly excellent CB's who will strike fear into opposing offenses, but neither one is exactly young. If the Chiefs are smart, Law's deal is structured to pay him big this year (so they could get him) but to make him easy to cut when his inevitable decline cuts in.

7
by Josh (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 12:27am

6: Surtain is only 29, so that's not old. Law is just a short term fix, but as FO has pointed out, the offense other than LJ is old and the window of opportunity with this core is closing, so a short term improvement is helpful

8
by jonnyblazin (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 1:18am

As someone who watched most of the Jets games last year (and I'm not even a fan!), I'll say that most of Law's interceptions weren't "look at that outstanding coverage" interceptions, but rather "I can't believe the QB threw it right to him" interceptions. There were definitely games in which he allowed a high percentage of completion to his receiver, and sometimes he just looked kinda old (I'm thinking of his reaction to a juke by LT, who makes a lot of defenders look bad, but not that bad).

9
by Travis (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 4:03am

Re: 8

I remembered Law much the same way you did, but go to NFL.com's highlights and re-watch his interceptions. You'll find he played better than you thought.

I posted this about 2 months ago, but it's newly relevant.

Through NFL.com video highlights and newspaper articles, a fuller description of Law’s 10 interceptions:

1. Chiefs - fooled QB into thinking he was covering short receiver, then dropped back to pick off end zone fade (no video on NFL.com)

2. Bucs - overthrow, Law not cover man

3. Bills (Week 6) - perfect coverage on long sideline pass

4. Falcons - perfect coverage on short slant, ball slightly overthrown

5. Panthers - pass bounced off of Stephen Davis, Law not cover man

6. Raiders - overthrow on slant, not clear if man or zone (Law 5 yards off receiver)

7. Patriots - jumped out pass, returned for TD

8. Bills (Week 17) - deflected off receiver (no video on NFL.com)

9. Bills (Week 17) - deflected off receiver (no video on NFL.com)

10. Bills (Week 17) - jumped in front of deep slant (zone? Bills needed to go 75 yards for TD in last minute)

Conclusion: Law fully earned at least 5 of his interceptions.

10
by James C (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 10:01am

This is either the final piece that allows the Cheifs to make a legitimate push for the Superbowl or the last rusty nail that causes the whole rickety structure to collapse. This team is either really experienced or really old.

11
by Peter (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 10:34am

Yeah pretty much... the team needs to try to win immediately, it's a great decision for them. If only they had a second WR, I'd think they were Superbowl ready (Tony G being the first, of course).

12
by karl (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 10:36am

Re, 10:

Even if this is the final piece they need to put that defense togethor, they have to play in the AFC West with two other very good teams - I still don't see them making it over denver and san diego.

13
by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 11:37am

They have surely improved over last season, in which they beat both the Chargers and the Broncos. The Broncos did finish with a better record, but the Chiefs were second in the division. The Chargers won't be close. It is a two team race between the Chiefs and Broncos.

14
by James C (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 11:51am

The Chargers may regret letting Brees go and taking their lumps with a rookie, and I am still a long way from being sold on their secondary.

I think Walker will be great for the Broncos at least in the second half. Their defense should improve if only by their intention to blitz less.

Law should help the Chiefs' defense and their offense should dominate again. All in all it looks like a tough division to win. My prediction more moaning by Carl Peterson at the end of the year about having fourteen teams in the playoffs.

15
by LnGrrrR (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 12:06pm

Well...speaking as a Pats homer, I hope he does well for the Chiefs. They're usually a fun team to watch at least, and this can't hurt.

16
by MRH (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 1:26pm

Re #11 - Eddie Kennison is a better WR than almost anyone realizes.

Here's his DPAR/DVOA ranks the last three years:

6/4; 17/25; 18/18

Even granting last year was a never-to-be-repeated career year, he looks like a perfectly fine wr - not a star, but in the middle of the pack for a wr1.

Here's the list of wrs who have finished in the top 25 of DPAR and DVOA the last three years:

Santana Moss, Hines Ward, Reggie Wayne, and Eddie Kennison. That's it: only 4 players. Let me guess that Kennison makes much less than those other three, so he's a moneyball bargain.

17
by Peter (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 2:03pm

I agree with the posters above... Chargers probably aren't a playoff team, and while the Broncos look like a guaranteed 12-win team, I think the Chiefs have an excellent chance for a wildcard.

18
by thisbemike (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 2:12pm

Sadly, this is a great signing for the Chefs.. Last year Law was nothing short of fat and out of shape and stillmanaged 10 INT's. The detractor will say it was unimpressive compared to the amount of Pass Interference calls he received but by all accounts he's healthy, and back in shape. Look for more of the same in INT's and less PI calls. great signing! would have loved to have seen him back with the Pats.

19
by GlennW (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 3:38pm

> A few months ago there was a thread here where everyone called Law “stupid� for asking for big money.

I was one of those people who said Law was misguided or intentionally obstinant (not stupid), but the base article featured Law's agent asking for $10m/year for however many years. Likewise I'm interested in how much he'll actually make this season, as well as over his entire term with the Chiefs, but I know it's not going to be $10m/per.

Regarding cap space, the Patriots need to be most concerned with who lines up on the other side of the ball from Law; i.e. Deon Branch.

20
by Stoos` (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 4:44pm

Law will supposedly be making $30mil over 5 years...so around six million a year. Far lower than his original asking price.

As for the above post, I don't see the Broncos winning 12 this year. I think if KC can win 11 they will be West Champs.

21
by Kachunk (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 5:03pm

"I’ll say that most of Law’s interceptions weren’t “look at that outstanding coverage� interceptions, but rather “I can’t believe the QB threw it right to him� interceptions."

I haven't played football, and most of my knowledge about it comes from this site, but I do know sports, and that's a HUGE pitfall that a lot of people fall for in evaluating talent.

The guy who is the best is the one who makes the difficult things look routine. In soccer (at all but the highest levels) the goalkeepers who are best don't impress you with the diving saves, because they make routine catch after routine catch because they're ALWAYS in the right place. Similarly with infielders in baseball--if they're good enough they'll be in the right place almost all the time, and won't have to make those diving catches very often.

I didn't watch all the Jets games, but I'd bet that's the case--his positioning was simply excellent, so the quarterback "just threw it right to him."

22
by thisbemike (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 6:21pm

re:21 I would tend to agree with your general theory but...no, Ty Law was largely unimpressive last year. With the Pats he was beyond great. an ankle injury and and an inactive off season really slowed him down. Still a great signing for the Chefs.

23
by JRM (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 6:30pm

Re #19 and 20- Law was never asking for $10 M per. He wanted $10 M in guarantees.

I have no idea how much of the deal is guaranteed, or how much signing bonus he got. My guess is he got the $10 M guarantee he asked for, but we'll see.

24
by thad (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 7:58pm

2
yeah 2 pass int calls against law last year

25
by dave whorton (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 9:32pm

i would love to know how ty law did and also champ bailey did . what were the comp.% against them and tds also given up. these two are regarded as two of the best but you when your the best teams generally don't throw your way . but with 18 combined pics alot of teams were not impressed with either.bailey gets beat for a td in the champ. game by a no name wr. had brady threw a better pass in the playoff game champ wouldn't have had a pic but woiuld of given up a td . can't wait for the prospectus and the football scientists book also.

26
by Luke (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 11:24pm

The chiefs D showed signs of life last year. If Hali contributes immediately he will do more for their pass defense than Law and Surtain combined.

Chiefs will win the AFC West this year. Could even make the big dance.

27
by Daniel (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 12:43am

ProFootballTalk is reporting that their sources confirm that Law's deal is basically a 1-year, $5 million dollar deal with huge escalators in the second season that will probably facilitate his release. Not exactly the big splash he thought he had comming.

28
by GlennW (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 1:27pm

> ProFootballTalk is reporting that their sources confirm that Law’s deal is basically a 1-year, $5 million dollar deal with huge escalators in the second season that will probably facilitate his release.

Yes. As expected Law's deal is effectively the same kind of make-good, likely-only-one-season proposition that he had with the Jets, at half the guarantee he was asking for (for the record, since he's signed and will actually even be at camp on time, I have no real problem with him asking for the moon-- just saying that it was unrealistic). If Law is outstanding and/or the Chiefs are big winners the contract may pay more, but such events would also signify that his market value had greatly increased anyway.