Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

05 May 2006

Niners Trade Dorsey for Dilfer

Let me tell you why Mike Nolan is a very selfish person: By trading Ken Dorsey for Trent Dilfer, I now have to re-write my Cleveland Browns chapter for PFP 2006. Seriously, I wonder if Nolan will name Dilfer the starter giving Alex Smith a little more time to recover from his off-season hand enlargement operation.

Posted by: P. Ryan Wilson on 05 May 2006

37 comments, Last at 08 May 2006, 3:21pm by Pat

Comments

1
by masocc (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 10:42am

As a 'Hawk fan, I wish the 49ers fans the best of luck as they begin their Dave Krieg 2.0 era.

2
by Sophandros (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 10:50am

But Dilfer has a Super Bowl Ring, which automatically makes him a great quarterback.

3
by mawbrew (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 11:14am

As a Browns fan, I'm of two minds on this trade. Dilfer was the only QB on the roster who has ever done anything. I think he still gave the Browns a better chance to win games next year than Frye.

OTOH, the guy has to understand he's not on the coaching staff. And if he can't do that then I guess he's got to go.

I do think SF has a much better chance to be competitive next year if Dilfer plays rather than Smith.

4
by Charles Jake (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 11:39am

Speaking of PFP 2006, Kudos for having the guts to put the Frank Gore prediction on the cover after The Kevin Jones Debacle.

5
by Ben (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 12:12pm

Nolan only wants to save Smith from being the first losing QB at Cardinals Stadium.

6
by admin :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 1:37pm

Frank Gore's not on the cover, that was an early mockup ... Ronnie Brown is going on the cover instead.

7
by bravehoptoad (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 2:24pm

You realize Ken Dorsey was our most experienced quarterback? If Dilfer ends up being nothing more than an absolutely average veteran, we'll come out way ahead.

...depending on what draft pick that was we sent over to Cleveland for the privelege of the swap.

8
by ChrisFromNJ (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 3:01pm

#7:

PFT is saying it's a seventh-rounder. Methinks you guys made out *very* well.

9
by sam_acw (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 3:08pm

You have to rate Dilfer as the better if the 2. He's got a ring (largely through not making big mistakes) and he's a pretty reliable backup.
If SF were just looking for an upgrade form Alex Smith they'd have signed Jeff George ;-)

10
by Dark Star (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 3:46pm

Maybe if the Colts had Dilfer they would have won the superbowl by now!

11
by ZS (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 4:45pm

Hey, they alreaedy have a Dilfer-level QB in Sorgi.

Unless Sorgi is worse/Dilfer is better than I think.

12
by Smeghead (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 4:57pm

Well, Dilfer's trying to be a good teammate, but let's just say Sorgi has protection problems.

13
by jetsgrumbler (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 6:02pm

re: smeghead. hillarious. vernon davis just cried for joy knowing he might have a real qb throwing passes. you know dilfer has won a superbowl, right?

14
by michael (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 8:44pm

as a niners fan im very happy they got trent dilfer to tutor alex smith. Mike nolan is doing an outstanding job through the draft and free agency. my prediction the niners finish in 2nd place in the nfc west behind seattle 8-8 record. i know most of you ppl are going to bash me for saying that lol.

15
by randomn00b (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 9:08pm

SF is still years away from contending, and Dilfer's old. He's still way better than Dorsey though, so SF probably made out better here.

In the big scheme of things, I don't think this trade will make much of a difference, as both these teams are more than an average QB away from being decent enough to make the playoffs, even with a lot of breaks.

16
by PDBIP (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 9:45pm

I wonder if the 49ers wish they still had Tim Rattay. Does anyone else think he's much better than any QB on the SF roster?

17
by Ted (not verified) :: Fri, 05/05/2006 - 9:56pm

You should put Adrian Wilson on the cover. Not only is he much better than most people realise, but if he pulls a Kevin Jones, well who's going to notice?

18
by Scott de B. (not verified) :: Sat, 05/06/2006 - 2:08am

I wonder if the 49ers wish they still had Tim Rattay. Does anyone else think he’s much better than any QB on the SF roster?

I thought last year that they should have kept Rattay, passed on Rodgers/Smith, and looked to take a QB this year.

19
by kennedy (not verified) :: Sat, 05/06/2006 - 12:02pm

Smith hasn't failed yet. It takes about two years of solid starts for a rookie qb to develop on an average team. The niners are below average at every position on offense. Smith didn't really play that much last year, and it was his first try. This is not to say that he'll automatically become good after a bunch of starts (look at Boller, Harrington), but it means he hasn't yet failed to prove himself. As for Dilfer, definite upgrade, well worth the trade. I sometimes think Nolan just wants to clean house and get all the loser 49ers out of there, and bring in a new generation of his guys. We'll know if that's a good plan or not in at least another year.

20
by Israel (not verified) :: Sat, 05/06/2006 - 5:32pm

Ryan, are you writing two versions of the Ravens for PFP - one with McNair and one without? Or are you just going to assume it will get done and change major egg on your face if it doesn't?

21
by Israel (not verified) :: Sat, 05/06/2006 - 5:33pm

That was "chance" not "change." Sorry.

22
by P. Ryan Wilson :: Sun, 05/07/2006 - 12:01am

Israel,

Even if the McNair deal gets done, he'll still be the backup to Boller, just like Dilfer will backup Smith ... right?

23
by jimmo (not verified) :: Sun, 05/07/2006 - 12:37am

I'm assuming Ryan you're joking here, right? With a reported $11 million signing bonus in the works, I'd think McNair would be the unquestioned starter. Again, I'm assuming you're response was a joke, but anyway...

24
by JRM (not verified) :: Sun, 05/07/2006 - 1:17am

Dilfer is a wa better fit for the Niners than Cleveland, but still..I'm shocked Cleveland couldn't get more than a a seventh and a player with zero value (Dorsey).

Cleveland might be thinking that Dorsey may end up as a good long term backup for Frye. They're wrong.

25
by Moses (not verified) :: Sun, 05/07/2006 - 12:05pm

"Dilfer is a wa better fit for the Niners than Cleveland, but still..I’m shocked Cleveland couldn’t get more than a a seventh and a player with zero value (Dorsey).

Cleveland might be thinking that Dorsey may end up as a good long term backup for Frye. They’re wrong. "

Ironically, there are many deluded 49er fans that believe Dorsey is a great talent and were not very happy with the trade. I'm sure this idiocy is not limited to 49er fans because people can't seem to undertand that virtually none of the "big program national championship QBs" were worth a darn. But, there's nothing like "he's a winner" cliche's and the halo effect to get people with no clue to buy into a scrub. Especially on a bad team and with fans desperate to regain QB excellence.

I'm sure many Cleveland fans will repeat the same stupid, discredited arguments that a hard core of 49er-know-nothings threw about for two years. They'll have the "he's a winner" and "Montana didn't have a strong arm" and "Tom Brady was taken in the 6th," all of which, while true, don't actually describe Dorsey and his particular situation.

26
by Moses (not verified) :: Sun, 05/07/2006 - 12:11pm

Ryan,

I wonder if Nolan will name Dilfer the starter giving Alex Smith a little more time to recover from his off-season hand enlargement operation.

Just because an idiot sportswriter speculated Smith had small hands, doesn't make it so. Of the QBs drafted last year, Smith's 9 3/4 hands were the largest. Certainly larger than Campbell who had tiny, Culpepper-like hands.

But, knowing nothing, a certain idiot in the local press wrote what he wrote. Without bothering to check the facts. Since then, the stupid little comment has passed around the media, and like any BS fact, got a life of it's own due to the ever-lazy and incompetent media not even bothering to fact-check what some hack reporter wrote.

27
by David A. (not verified) :: Sun, 05/07/2006 - 2:14pm

For Cleveland, it seems like a classic make-way-for-the-new-guy maneuver, whil for my Niners, they finally made a move that makes sense. Apparently, I'm in the minority in SF when it comes to Nolan, as I'm constantly annoyed by his schtick and, now, pretty much only see his insane personnel decisions, like trading Rattay instead of putting Smith on the Pennington Plan and keeping him off the field until he had a real NFL team around him. Like picking yet ANOTHER converted QB in Michael Robinson, which gives them four QB/WR/RB types in Robinson, Arnaz Battle, Cody Pickett, and Rasheed Marshall. Yay for sub-mediocre wideouts who can juke better than average and throw better than average! Guaranteed, if all of them make the team, at some point in the season, Davis will line up tight, Battle, Pickett, and Marshall will line up wide, and Robinson will line up in the backfield with Smith in the shotgun, and then they'll shift formation, with Smith out wide, Marshall in the 'gun, and run an option-pass with Marshall and Robinson. It will either go for a loss, or Marshall will prove he should have stayed at QB coming out of West VA.

27
by TheWedge (not verified) :: Sun, 05/07/2006 - 2:14pm

RE: 25
I'm not any kind of Dorsey-fan but didn't Aaron, or one of the other outsiders, make the point that Dorsey's stats were comparable to Eli Manning's? Also someone else just made a valid point that you need a certain number of starts to judge a QB's potential.

29
by P. Ryan Wilson :: Sun, 05/07/2006 - 5:04pm

jimmo,

Yep, I was kidding. If McNair isn't named the starter once he gets to Baltimore, Billick should be fired on the spot.

Moses,

Alex Smith really didn't have hand enlargement surgery. That was a joke.

30
by Ilanin (not verified) :: Sun, 05/07/2006 - 6:07pm

27 - I think you're being overly harsh on Robinson, who the 49ers are slated to line up at RB, and he might make something of it - from what I've seen (which isn't all that much admittedly) he's a pretty good athelete and being a former QB has good vision. There's a lot of Penn State/Steelers fans who wanted to see Robinson in black and gold, which sounds like a high compliment to me. I think he'll do pretty well in SF.

31
by michael (not verified) :: Sun, 05/07/2006 - 8:03pm

re:27 spoken like a true raiders fan lol. you couldnt be more wrong michael robinson was a steal in the 4th round he could be a wide out, running back, quarterback, and could even be used in trick plays. mike nolan did a great job in this draft with 5 potential starters in vernon davis, manny lawson, michael robinson, parys harrelson, and brian williams who can be a wide out and kick returner. the 49ers had the best draft in years and they had the best draft this year.

32
by Karl Cuba (not verified) :: Sun, 05/07/2006 - 11:14pm

The only way Dilfer gets on the field this year is if Smith is injured, the niners just have too much riding on Smith.

I acn't believe people are consigning Smith to the trash heap after half a year surrounded by one of the worst supporting casts in NFL history. This year he'll get Jonas Jennings, Eric Johnson, Jeremy Newberry and Arnaz Battle back. Plus the niners have added Larry Allen, Antonio Bryant (who I thought was the best free agent WR, based on his production) and Vernon Davis. That's as many as 7 new starters and an off season to improve for Smith. If he's as bad next year as last THEN start to slag him off because to attack him at the moment is a little harsh.

BTW if McNair goes to the Ravens then he'll start and the AFC north begins to look very, very competitive.

33
by Karl Cuba (not verified) :: Sun, 05/07/2006 - 11:15pm

Re 25: if you say that about Dorsey (weak arm, big college) then don't the same things ring true for Leinart? Cutler looks better and better.
Can someone tell me why I don't get paragraphs on this site?

34
by jimmo (not verified) :: Mon, 05/08/2006 - 1:15am

michael, I love your enthusiasm, but if Harrelson, Robinson and Williams are starters for SF next year, then 2007 will not be a good year for your 'Niners (discounting of course, Williams as a return man/starter; i guess that's why he was drafted. but not as a starting WR).

35
by jimmo (not verified) :: Mon, 05/08/2006 - 1:16am

harrelson= haralson, by the way

36
by Green Bay for Life (not verified) :: Mon, 05/08/2006 - 2:58pm

Personally I think the 49ers got a steal. Trent went to Cleavland becuase he was offered the starting job there and did OK as a starter. He now goes back to the west coast and I think he will be the backup to Alex Smith for most of the year (Baring injury to Smith). And if all SF had to do was give up a 7th round 2007 Draft Pick for him? what the hell was Clevland thinking? They all ready have to work with thier 2 year prospect in Charlie Frye and they get anohter one? or is this not the last stop for dorsey? perhaps a deal to be worked out with Detroit? here take our sup par QB and give me your sub par QB in return.

37
by Pat (not verified) :: Mon, 05/08/2006 - 3:21pm

Like picking yet ANOTHER converted QB in Michael Robinson, which gives them four QB/WR/RB types in Robinson, Arnaz Battle, Cody Pickett, and Rasheed Marshall. Yay for sub-mediocre wideouts

Running back. Not WR. For God's sake, running back.

Battle and Marshall are WRs. Robinson is a running back.

Why is this so complicated? Look, right here: Robinson. Running back.

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