Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

27 Jan 2006

The Top Ten Reasons Larry Johnson Scares the Hell Out of Me

Larry Johnson, obvious number one overall pick in 2006 fantasy drafts ... or is he?

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 27 Jan 2006

16 comments, Last at 06 Feb 2006, 9:13pm by The originator

Comments

1
by Israel (not verified) :: Fri, 01/27/2006 - 11:20am

At some point next year, Larry Johnson will face Troy Polamalu. The Steelers and Chiefs exchanged first round draft picks in 2003 and those were their picks.

2
by DNL (not verified) :: Fri, 01/27/2006 - 11:42am

LT and Alexander still have to be ahead of him. LJ doesn't catch passes, has a new head coach, new OC, is a questionable blocker, and may be a function of that offensive line. Plus, he hasn't handled a full season and may be sharing carries (again) with Priest Holmes.

3
by Mr Shush (not verified) :: Fri, 01/27/2006 - 11:45am

I can't believe the guy doesn't mention the age of that offensive line. How could anyone not believe that, great runner as LJ undoubtedly is, his fantasy performance would decline radically with a drop-off in the quality of blocking, not to mention that age-related decline on the Chiefs' offense would probably also result in fewer big leads and hence fewer runs called.

4
by CA (not verified) :: Fri, 01/27/2006 - 12:27pm

I'm surprised that the fact that Larry Johnson went to Penn State didn't make the list. Because we all know that any running back who ever came out of Penn State or ever will come out of Penn State invariably was or will be a bust.

In all seriousness, the biggest concern about Johnson in real (not fantasy) football should be that he gets too many carries, not too few. The Chiefs look to be eager to run him into the ground, and he looks happy to oblige them. I'm more concerned that Johnson will get 400 carries in 2006 than that he will get 200 carries. Overusing Johnson could quickly kill his very promising career.

5
by MdM (not verified) :: Fri, 01/27/2006 - 12:33pm

I'm sorry, but I can't believe I actually read that whole article. Not to be insulting, but do some of you guys identify with that writer?

6
by DJAnyReason (not verified) :: Fri, 01/27/2006 - 12:50pm

Re: 2

LJ is 7th DVOA in catch-passing. LT is 38th, SA is 39th. LJ's a much better reciever than either of them.

As for blocking, that doesn't much factor into his fantasy value.

One could argue that, in real football, he wouldn't be taken ahead of LT or Alexander. Heck, one could argue that in fantasy football, he shouldn't be. But not by saying he doesn't catch passes and doesn't block.

7
by Sophandros (not verified) :: Fri, 01/27/2006 - 12:54pm

He mixed in a Melissa Stark photo. Thus, I can relate to him.

8
by Phil (not verified) :: Fri, 01/27/2006 - 1:53pm

#5. Thats 5 minutes of my life I'll never get back.

9
by Countertorque (not verified) :: Fri, 01/27/2006 - 2:46pm

Re: #2, I think you should wait to see what team Alexander is playing for next year before you decide to take him above LJ.

10
by DNL (not verified) :: Fri, 01/27/2006 - 3:23pm

#9, good point -- it's why I didn't put the Edge over LJ.

11
by NF (not verified) :: Fri, 01/27/2006 - 8:49pm

#8: With the exception of missing the part about the offensive line declining with age, the guy does raise a number of good points about how the running game could go south in Kansas in a hurry.

12
by Joon (not verified) :: Sat, 01/28/2006 - 1:48am

Re: #11

you mean in missouri?

13
by Browns Dude (not verified) :: Sat, 01/28/2006 - 7:24pm

Let's not forget when he dressed up as an old lady.

Oh, wait...

14
by Old James (not verified) :: Sat, 01/28/2006 - 10:12pm

I think the point about his blocking may be that it would keep him off the field in passing situations, limiting his value as a receiver. By conventional stats (we are talking fantasy here), he's a more productive receiver than Alexander and comparable to Tomlinson (fewer receptions but almost the same number of yards and, thus, a higher YPC).
So missing passing downs would hurt.

15
by KAyJAy (not verified) :: Sun, 01/29/2006 - 12:25pm

#11. Just made me think is it fair to call the K.C. OL one of the best run-blocking offensive lines of recent times? In my opinion K.C. RB's got it easy. Priest Holmes was a back up in Baltimore and came to K.C. and became an instant superstar. Becoming an elite RB in K.C. is'nt as hard as you might think. Still i would put him ahead of LT and SA and if hes splitting with Priest i would happier as a fantasy owner if he got about 200-230 carries and rushed for 1200yds. A RB is useless if its injured!!

16
by The originator (not verified) :: Mon, 02/06/2006 - 9:13pm

Thanks for some of the kind comments. The article was in jest really but a few points are meant to adhere to fantasy football.