06 Jan 2006
Each year, King Kaufman of Salon.com tracks the preseason picks of all the pundits he can find, including all the ESPN and SI guys and the big preseason magazines like Street & Smith's and Athlon Sports. This year, the most accurate preseason predictions belonged to ... ME! Yay! (And people say this stat stuff doesn't work for football!) This is the second straight year that Football Outsiders has delivered the most accurate preseason predictions in football, sort of. Why sort of? King includes in the contest both my personal picks and the the Football Outsiders staff consensus. Last year, the FO consensus won the contest, and personally I was third. This year, I won the contest, and the FO consensus was third. Both the consensus and I were more accurate than Len Pasquarelli, Peter King, Dr. Z, Pete Prisco, John Clayton, and even our beloved Ron Jaworski. As King details in this article, this was the worst year for preseason picks in the three years he has tracked them. The average expert on the panel chose just 2.3 correct division champions. I chose five; the only others to choose four were Steve Young and Street and Smith's. Not one expert chose the Bears to make the playoffs at all, only Joe Theismann chose the Redskins, and I was one of just two experts to choose the Bucs. (Column free after reading Salon.com advertisement.) NOTE: If you click on the comments, I've added some information about which teams were completely ignored by the experts, and which teams the experts mistakenly thought would make the postseason.
17 comments, Last at 08 Jan 2006, 6:32pm by admin
Thanks a lot, Dak Prescott. Now more people will think the fourth round is still a gold mine for quarterbacks, but the data says otherwise. The update to our quarterback draft study for 1994-2016 shows little has changed: finding a good QB is really hard.