Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

19 Oct 2007

Beyond Sacks: 2007 Update

Many of you read the article in Pro Football Prospectus 2007 about hits and hurries, entitled "Beyond Sacks." I thought I would try to update the information for 2007 occasionally during the season, so we could see whose pass rush contributions are hidden when we only look at sack totals.

First, let's look at hurries. These come from game charting, so they are WILDLY incomplete. This is only Weeks 1-4, some halves are missing (including all of Week 3 HOU-IND), and the data hasn't been fully cleaned up yet. Nevertheless, here are the leaders in the data we do have:

74-A.Kampman GB 8
92-B.Berry ARI 8
91-T.Hali KC 7.5
56-D.Johnson KC 7.5
94-D.Ware DAL 7
55-T.Suggs BAL 6
92-A.Haynesworth TEN 6
92-S.Rogers DET 6
99-B.Keisel PIT 6
97-P.Kerney SEA 6
55-J.Abraham ATL 5.5

Second, hits. These come from the official play-by-play, and include all hits -- including those on plays canceled by penalty. To score as a QB hit, the quarterback has to be knocked to the ground. Unfortunately, like last year, we're finding that the official scorers have wildly different views of what counts as a hit. In general, the same stadiums that scored too few hits last year are scoring too few hits this year. The worst is Pittsburgh -- only one QB hit was scored in three home games, on both sides of the ball. Knowing the Pittsburgh defense, does it make sense that they would go three games and only knock the quarterback down once?

Luckily, the people at the NFL know about the situation, thanks to Football Outsiders. FO charters are also on the lookout for hits that are missed in the official scoring, and we've already contributed a bunch of corrections for Weeks 1-3.

Here are hits through Week 6, not counting sacks:

94-D.Ware DAL 8
93-K.Vanden Bosch TEN 8
55-T.Suggs BAL 7
50-M.Vrabel NE 6
92-S.Rogers DET 6
94-T.Warren NE 6
95-K.Wimbley CLE 6
97-P.Kerney SEA 6
94-K.Gbaja-Biamila GB 6
98-A.Odom TEN 6

It should be noted that Tennessee has two players in the top 10 for QB hits even though a) they've only played five games and b) they aren't getting any help from the scorers. The Titans have 11 hits at home in two games, and 17 on the road in three.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 19 Oct 2007

10 comments, Last at 14 May 2009, 7:47am by eyeless

Comments

1
by citizen jason (not verified) :: Fri, 10/19/2007 - 5:11pm

Not to nitpick (but I will), but Kerney is shown at being on ATL for the second group of numbers. But having been forced (as a fan) to watch every pitiful seahawks snap this year, it surprises me to see him in there--I hadn't really noticed that ...

2
by Charger Jeff (not verified) :: Fri, 10/19/2007 - 5:40pm

speaking of nitpicking ...

"and we’ve already contributed a bunch of contributions for Weeks 1-3."

??

3
by coltrane23 (not verified) :: Fri, 10/19/2007 - 6:13pm

Re: #1

I was thinking the same thing--after Week 1 against TB, when he did have a good game, I can't recall Kerney ever getting close to the QB. Certainly wouldn't have thought of him as a league leader in pressuring the QB. Julian Peterson, maybe, but not Kerney.

4
by Matt Saracen - QB1 - Dillon Panthers (not verified) :: Fri, 10/19/2007 - 6:20pm

I'd be rating DeMarcus Ware the top pass rusher of the year thus far. He has the most hits and hurries combined (15) of anyone on these lists, plus he has more sacks (5.5) than anyone else on these lists. Also, last year I remember being impressed by Aaron Kampman's numbers and it seems he's doing pretty well this year too (he has 5 sacks along with all those hurries).

5
by b-man (not verified) :: Fri, 10/19/2007 - 11:01pm

How does this look if you change it to a per play rate? The numer of plays faced in a game by a defense can be drastically different in any given week. Factor in the different defensive looks and a player may only be on the field for 10-12 plays in a game. Just look at DAL vs. NE where the DAL defense faced nearly twice as many plays as the NE defense.

6
by asg (not verified) :: Sat, 10/20/2007 - 1:19pm

Some pretty hyped names missing from those lists... Freeney? Merriman?

7
by JoeB (not verified) :: Sat, 10/20/2007 - 1:27pm

re: 6

"some halves are missing (including all of Week 3 HOU-IND)"

Freeney's missing a full game of data. That might be the issue. Not sure about Merriman.

8
by B (not verified) :: Sat, 10/20/2007 - 11:18pm

6: Merriman had very few Hurries last year, so not many this year isn't a big surprise.

9
by RobinFiveWords (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 1:26pm

Would be interesting to see what the league average "hurry rate" and "hit rate" were in 2006 for different situations. I'd expect to see higher rates on third-and-long dropbacks than on second-and-short dropbacks. How much higher is the question.

And after a few years of data are available, which matters more: players or situation?

10
by eyeless (not verified) :: Thu, 05/14/2009 - 7:47am

after Week 1 against TB, when he did have a good game, I can't recall Kerney ever getting close to the QB

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