Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

22 Oct 2007

Dolphins Lose Brown, Hill for Year

A bad, bad season gets worse in Miami, as running back Ronnie Brown and safety Renaldo Hill are both done for the year with knee injuries. The 0-16 watch might be as interesting as the 16-0 watch, but it will be hard for the Dolphins to avoid a win when the Jets and Bills are so bad too. The Rams, on the other hand...

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 22 Oct 2007

47 comments, Last at 24 Oct 2007, 4:18pm by Rich Conley

Comments

1
by zip (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 3:58pm

Bills are so bad

[homer]
Oh yeah, maybe you should ask the Ravens and Cowboys about that!
[/homer]

2
by KJ (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 4:03pm

Jesse Chatman owner in all leagues... =/

"The Rams, on the other hand..." play in the NFC West.

I was rooting for the Ravens, because I want to see how quickly the Pats can clinch. Congrats JV AFC East! You just got your first win against a team outside your division!

3
by vanya (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 4:04pm

You don't need to be a homer to think that the Bills really aren't that bad. They're much better than the Jets or Dolphins in any case, and I bet they could whip any of the NFC West Teams handily. I'm still confused why Aaron just this week was claiming Baltimore is a really good team - I'm not seeing a lot of evidence for that.

4
by KJ (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 4:06pm

Hmm, I just realized. Yeremiah Bell and now Ronaldo Hill. Tillman and Allen better watch out. =(

5
by AndyE (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 4:16pm

I saw the Brown injury - looked alot like he tried to shift his weight and the knee collapsed on him - Randall Gay juked past him. No contact.

6
by Mike B in VA (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 4:21pm

It couldn't happen to a nicer team...

/billsfan

7
by navin (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 4:23pm

The Rams still have a game left against SF. Right now it's probably a tossup, though SF does have a decent defense.

8
by Andy (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 4:24pm

The only player for Miami who was playing well just blew out his ACL.

This hurts.

9
by Bionicman (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 4:28pm

Forgive the off-topic digression, but I live in Buffalo (though I'm not a fan), and I also think that the Bills have talent. Dumb coaching decisions against Denver and Dallas made the difference between 2-4 and 4-2 (mainly passing when they should have run up the middle to kill the clock). The defense has overcome a ton of injuries (there's emerging talent at all levels), and the offense is doing better than a unit with a rookie quarterback usually does (Lynch is a keeper). A good draft and a coach who makes better gameday decisions would propel them to the AFC's second tier.

10
by johonny (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 4:37pm

RICKEY WILLIAMS TO THE RESCUE

11
by Rich Conley (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 4:39pm

The bills have done the following:

Got Blown Out:

#3 Pittsburgh
#1 New England

Played Close but lost:
#4 Dallas
#24 Denver (who beat #3)

Beat:
#8 baltimore
#30 NYJ

I think Buffalo is a middle of the road, average-ish team, who has played an absurd schedule to this point. I think buffalo's DVOA will continue to rise, and they'll end up somewhere around 0%.

New England and Indy are SO good that they're depressing everyone's DVOA who they've played.

12
by Herm (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 5:04pm

I also don't think that the Bills are that bad. The have some talent, and play hard.

Remember, they played Dallas tough, and should have won that game. On top of that, if it wasn't for a last minute FG, they would have beat Denver.

I also thought they played the Pats tougher than NYJ and MIA.

13
by James, London (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 5:18pm

The Brown loss is bad, but I'm hoping he's not seriously hurt, rather that it's one of those "high ankle sprain" type injuries, (I know it's not an ankle sprain), where a player misses time, but could return later in the year. Miami are finished this year so IR-ing Brown allows him to completely heal for next year. Sadly, it's far more likely to be a legitimate IR-type injury.

As for Reynaldo Hill, that's a big loss, as he and Will Allen are the only semi-competent DBs Miami have (or had). Now Jason Allen will have to start, and that's bad, mmkay?

14
by Andy (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 5:33pm

Complete tear of the ACL.

Confirmed in Cam's press conference.

I hope he can return to form eventually.

I'm looking for a silver lining, but there's nothing. Nothing.

15
by Christina (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 6:42pm

Count me among those who don't think the Bills are that bad. They're mediocre, certainly, but not bad. I was impressed with them when they played the Patriots (the only time I've seen them play). I agree the coaching staff could be better, but as I recall, the Bills also have a very young team. They'll improve over the next few years, and could develop in to a very good team.

16
by ZSGhost (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 7:13pm

As long as we're making homer comments, [homer]GIANTS OVER PATRIOTS WEEK 17[/homer].

Look on the bright side, though, Dolphins fans: At least he won't be 370'd.

17
by McGaytrain (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 7:41pm

Another homer here, but I digress.

The Bills are average. With average luck, they would be above average, but the Force is not with them. I count 9 players on IR and 12 players injured, with 8 of those doubtful or out.

Dallas and Denver aside, that is awful luck. Unless conditioning or scouting play a role, but I doubt it with unforeseeable injuries such as broken arms and spines.

18
by Marko (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 8:09pm

"Dumb coaching decisions against Denver and Dallas made the difference between 2-4 and 4-2 (mainly passing when they should have run up the middle to kill the clock)."

I saw those types of decisions by Jauron all too frequently when he coached the Bears.

"They’ll improve over the next few years, and could develop in to a very good team."

As long as Jauron coaches the Bills, I doubt that they will become a very good team. Under Jauron, the Bills will play hard and be somewhat competitive. However, they will constantly find ways to lose games that they should win, or turn games that they easily control into nail-biting games that could go either way. I made a similar comment last year when Jauron was first hired.

Jauron is good at making a team competitive. However, he is not good at making a team a consistent winner.

19
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 8:59pm

I resigned myself to the Fins going 0-16 about a month ago, after I saw exactly how awful they were against the Cowboys.

Now I'm just wondering who on that team did what horrible things in past lives. Must've been a doozy.

The Fins actually went through the EASY part of their schedule the first 6 weeks. That's the ludicrously absurd bit.

20
by emcee fleshy (atl/sd) (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 9:35pm

What will really hurt is about week 12 or so, when Miami picks up a fluke win and screws up the "perfect season" that fin-fans had perversely started rooting for.

As a decades-log Falcons fan, I can attest that it's surprisingly painful.

21
by Noah of Arkadia (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 9:48pm

It's pretty bad for us, but no worries. It'll get better. It goes around and around, you know. As long as we pass the time getting a life, we'll be ok.

That's the good news. The bad news is that some of us will probably be dead by the time it finally turns around good. But no worries either. I hear souls go around and around too. :)

I would like to tile this post: "How my belief in reincarnation helps me survive my beloved Fins." if it's not too late.

22
by jebmak (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 1:21am

Now New England can rest easy, the division is theirs.

23
by Louis (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 2:22am

This is all Nick Saban's fault.

24
by tunesmith (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 5:29am

beatpaths actually had buffalo favored to beat baltimore this past week. The four teams baltimore had beaten were seen as four of the worst five teams in the league. Of course, the flipside to that is that buffalo didn't get a lot of credit in the rankings for defeating baltimore - they actually look a little worse this week since they had previously lost to pittsburgh, who looks a little worse due to losing to denver.

25
by Podge (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 5:53am

Wow, I wasn't at all looking forward to seeing Ronnie Brown at Wembley this weekend. Balls.

26
by Theo, Holland (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 8:00am

on a positive note; they got themselves a shiny new kick returner!

27
by Phil (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 9:56am

Marko
Are you a Bears fan, living in Chicago?

I like the way Juron teams play, not in terms of W/L, but they alway seem to play tough, regardless of who the opponent is. It seems to me that he's the perfect coach in Buffalo right now because of the young talent. He'll coach them up despite having the weaker team and build some confidence in the young players. In the end they will need a better coach to get them over the hump.

28
by mawbrew (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 10:07am

Too bad about Brown, he was looking at a terrific year. Not to be overly pessimistic but his injury looks a lot like what happened to Kijana Carter.

Regarding the Bills, my perception (really only seen parts of the Dallas game) is that they have an average defense (maybe even above average) but an offense that's near the bottom of the league. Perhaps that will change as Edwards gets more experience, but for now they look like a below average team overall.

29
by Andy (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 11:23am

#20: I don't know of any fellow Fin Fans who are rooting for 0-16.

Yes, I'd like the #1 overall draft pick, but unlike Bill Simmons, I just CANNOT root against my teams.

30
by Marko (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 12:04pm

"Marko
Are you a Bears fan, living in Chicago?"

I'm a Bears fan, living in Los Angeles. Thanks to the wonders of NFL Sunday Ticket, I watch every Bears game, so I know very well what it's like to watch a team coached by Jauron.

31
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 12:34pm

And twenty years from now, when the surviving members of the 07 Dolphins celebrate the last pathetic team finally winning a game by opening their bottles of Zima...

32
by asp_j (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 1:41pm

I was just looking at Miami's schedule. At this point, at Buffalo Dec. 9 and especially at New England Dec. 23 is just cruel.

33
by TED F!@#ING GINN!? (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 1:52pm

Re 32:

Wow, so the Christmas present that the Cheatriots and Bellicheat get is to play an injury depleted Dolphins team that was terrible to begin with.

Thanks a lot Santa. I'm converting to Buddhism.

34
by Rich Conley (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 1:57pm

"especially at New England Dec. 23 is just cruel."

Cruel, yes. Fair, yes.

If New England has to play in 80 degree, 80% humidity in October when its 40 degrees up here with almost no humidity, Miami should have to play in 20 degree weather when its 70 down there.

35
by ChrisS (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 2:10pm

To bad the NFL trading deadline is way too early or the Lions might have been able to get some value for Tatum Bell. ...oh never mind, Millen is still GM

36
by pawnking (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 2:18pm

Serious question: Does this mean anything at all with regards to Nick Saban's coaching ability? Does this prove he's a great coach who had lousey personnel to work with? Was he a lousey coach who left the cupboard bare? Does it mean absoluetly nothing at all?

37
by lionsbob (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 3:12pm

It means that whoever told him Culpepper was healthy enough to play was stupid. Though he won 9 games with Frerotte at QB. I don't think his drafts were awesome, but Ronnie Brown at 2 looked awesome compared to the other 2 choices he could have made at RB. But he brought in more talent in 2 years combined through the draft then the previous regiment did in 5 years.

38
by lionsbob (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 3:15pm

ughhh I just looked at the Dolphins drafts from 1999 to 2004-they are Millen-esque. Good lord, who is the best player from those drafts: Chris Chambers? Who is the second best player? Yeremiah Bell? Randy McMichael? Morlon Greenwood?

39
by DrewTS (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 3:33pm

Re 36

I would lean towards the "cupboard left bare" theory. But it's also important to note that Cam Cameron sucks, so we mustn't infer too much from comparisons to him.

40
by James, London (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 3:54pm

Being fair to Nick Saban, he had the misfortune to have the #2 pick in a draft where arguably, no player was worth taking. Consider the Top 10 players taken in 2005:

1: Alex Smith
2: Ronnie Brown
3: Braylon Edwards
4: Cedric Benson
5: Cadillac Williams
6: Pacman Jones
7: Troy Williamson
8: Antrel Rolle
9: Carlos Rogers
10: Mike Williams.

It's not stellar, is it? I haven't seen a lot of Carlos Rogers, but of the rest, only Braylon Edwards could be considered as sucessful a pick as Ronnie Brown. Sadly Miami needed a QB, OT or (with hindsight) a D-lineman or a DB. None worth the #2 pick were available. So Saban chose the right player; it's just that the RB position isn't worth the #2 pick.

Compare that with 2004, when Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Larry Fitzgerald, Sean Taylor, Dunta Robinson & Roy Williams went in the Top 10, or 2006, when Vince Young, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler and Marion Williams were all available. 2005 was a bad year to be drafting high.

Of course, none of that excuses Saban getting it so badly wrong on Jason freakin' Allen the following year.

41
by Marko (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 6:23pm

Slight correction: Roethlisberger didn't go in the top 10 in 2004 - he went #11. That doesn't detract from your point, however, as he obviously was one of the top prospects available. The 2004 draft also included Tommie Harris, who was drafted #14.

Of course, the draft is about more than just the first round. The really good teams continuously find quality players throughout the draft. The 49ers in the Bill Walsh era and the Cowboys under Jimmy Johnson consistently found good players in just about any round and often traded down to stockpile more picks and thus more opportunities to draft good players. The Patriots recently have done the same thing.

42
by Jerry (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 7:47pm

Re #31:

LOL. Will the '76 Buccaneers miss their chance to drink Schlitz Malt Liquor?

43
by lionsbob (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 9:36pm

#41

You are right, the current version of the Dolphins is nothing like the last 3 great dynasties in the NFL...who would have thought? I would venture a guess that more teams drafted like the Dolphins recently, then those 3 teams.

44
by Marko (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 11:32pm

Thanks for the snarkiness, lionsbob. I was merely referring to the comment in #40 about (1) the misfortune that Nick Saban had to have the #2 pick in the 2005 draft (where many of the top selections didn't deserve their draft slots), and (2) the mistake of choosing Jason Allen in the first round in 2006. James' comments in #40 only addressed the Dolphins first round picks under Saban. I was simply pointing out that the other rounds of the draft are quite important, too.

45
by Rich Conley (not verified) :: Wed, 10/24/2007 - 2:25pm

"the misfortune that Nick Saban had to have the #2 pick in the 2005 draft "

I don't really see any misfortune in that. If the Dolphins had the pick the next year, they'd have Reggie Bush instead of Ronnie Brown.

Yeah, it wasn't a great draft class, but they got a great player with pick #2, and I don't think they would have done any better having that pick in 2004 or 2006.

46
by James, London (not verified) :: Wed, 10/24/2007 - 2:33pm

"I don’t think they would have done any better having that pick in 2004 or 2006."

Gotta disagree Rich. While Brown is arguably a Top-5 RB, I'd still much rather have taken Roethlisberger, Rivers, (assuming Manning went #1), Leinart, Jay Cutler or Vince Young. A Top 5 RB is nice, but I'd rather have a Top 15 QB. And there wasn't one available in 2005.

47
by Rich Conley (not verified) :: Wed, 10/24/2007 - 4:18pm

46
The Dolphins already had a top 15 QB on the roster, in.... Sage Rosenfels?

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