Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

31 Dec 2007

First Head To Roll Belongs To Mueller

The Miami Herald is reporting that Bill Parcells has fired GM Randy Mueller. Parcells is scheduled to meet with head coach Cam Cameron tomorrow, when he will find out whether or not he needs to dust off his resume.

Posted by: Sean McCormick on 31 Dec 2007

24 comments, Last at 02 Jan 2008, 2:18pm by Justin Zeth

Comments

1
by Steve Nolan (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 2:12pm

Well this sure came outta nowhere.

2
by B (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 2:20pm

He gout a 2nd round pick for Chris Chambers, that has to count for something, right?

3
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 2:25pm

Parcells needs to fire EVERYBODY associated with the team, the scouting staff, the medical staff, everyone. Mueller's the first, but he damn well better not be the last!!!

4
by Israel (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 3:03pm

Didn't everyone used to say how underrated and unappreciated he had been in New Orleans, that he would land on his feet and improve anyone smart enough to hire him, etc etc?

5
by Richard (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 3:14pm

2: I don't know. San Diego seems pretty damn pleased with that deal.

6
by Andy (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 3:40pm
7
by Richie (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 3:42pm

#4 - do we know who was most responsible for the Fred F&$^&$# Ginn pick?

8
by Andy (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 3:44pm

#7, I think the blame/credit has yet to be determined, although Cameron must have been super-high on the kid, because he cited his knowledge of Ginn's family.

9
by James, London (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 3:59pm

Cameron must be done, if only because a new GM is going to want to hire his own HC.

PFT are reporting that Billick got whacked.

10
by Andy (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 4:07pm

Parcells will hire the coach, not the GM.

11
by James, London (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 4:22pm

#10

Either way, Cam would appear finished.

12
by Andy (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 4:28pm

agreed

13
by matt millen's brain (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 4:43pm

I guess Parcells must have thought I was available.

But William Clay Ford is not about to let me go based on the progress we made this year...all the way to 7-9.

Though I did think that Mueller deserved to keep his job...if Charles Johnson was gone at #2, I would have taken Ginn.

14
by BDC (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 4:50pm

After all the poor decisions Miami has made regarding personnel, it is clear that the GM had to go. And this means it is likely that Cameron is gone too. On the other hand though, they have had what, four different HCs over the past four years, this will presumably make 5 in five years? At some point don't you just have to pick a guy and stick with him for a few seasons to see what he can do?

15
by Sergio (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 6:47pm

re:14

You would think so. Then again, you would think by now, fans would be clamoring for it, instead of calling for the latest head thinking the latest big-name hire will finally turn this team around.

16
by Justin Zeth (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2007 - 7:50pm

And with Parcells calling the shots, the Dolphins are definitely out of the Koach Kowher Sweepstakes. I have no idea what he might do, actually. You think the next Dolphins coach will almost have to be a relative no-name, to be willing to do his job under Parcells' shadow. Cam Cameron clearly didn't get it done, but the Dolphins need to use the #1 pick on the best quarterback available--or trade down, even if it's for peanuts, if they conclude no franchise quarterback is available--and if they do draft a QB, bring in a coach they can feel confident can build a strong offense from scratch with him.

17
by Noah of Arkadia (not verified) :: Tue, 01/01/2008 - 5:17pm

Do they really pick a QB? They just used a #2 on a QB that everybody's high on (in Miami).

I say Cam pulls an upset and stays.

18
by BDC (not verified) :: Tue, 01/01/2008 - 7:37pm

Does it really matter? The entire team is in a shambles.

While Beck might turn out okay, they don't have a decent QB. Their receivers are well...not good and the best one is old. Their running back is good, assuming he can return to form after his injury, and their OL is serviceable (though would be much improved if they could get a real LT and move Carey back to RT where he belongs.

Their defense is terrible though. The secondary is bad; the only competent one among them is Will Allen and while not exactly old, he likely will be when Miami is done rebuilding. The LB are old\bad, with the exception of Crowder. The DL is in even worse shape, with the only competent one among them being Taylor and it is clear that age has caught up with him (not that any of them are particularly young). Much as I would hate to see him go, if they could get anything decent for him, now is the time.

Incidentally, THIS is the problem with the Ginn pick. You simply can't pick a mediocre receiver\return guy with good potential when you have this many holes on your team.

I can't see them picking a QB this year; they're not going to give up on Beck after 4 games. I think they have to let him start next year consequences be damned. If he shows he can play, great, they have a QB, if not, well then they will again have the first pick in the draft and can select a QB.

Of course, when you are in this bad shape your best bet is probably to trade down in the draft but as we all know, that is easier said then done. So:

Are there any stud LTs in this draft? I don't catch enough college ball to know. If so, I would think their best bet is to pick him up, move Carey over to RT, and thus solidify their OL for a long time. Then spend the rest of the draft on defense.

I don't think it makes much difference if Cam stays or goes, or if he goes, who they pick up to replace him. Their problem these past 5 years or so hasn't been with coaching (okay, maybe a little but still), it has been they have let good young talent go while throwing away draft picks.

19
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Tue, 01/01/2008 - 8:18pm

Knowing a little bit about the available quarterbacks in the draft, none of them are worth the #1 overall pick. Parcells needs to find some Mike Ditka whose willing to trade some picks.

20
by Justin Zeth (not verified) :: Tue, 01/01/2008 - 10:10pm

John Beck was 26 years old and was train-wreck horrible in his brief snippets of action. He was a mistake. A franchise quarterback is a requirement if you want to contend for a championship; the only reliable place to get a franchise quarterback is the top of the first round; the Dolphins have a pick at the top of the first round; so if there is any very strong QB prospect available, the Dolphins must take him. If there's not, they take Jake Long and go from there. It's that simple.

21
by Mr Shush (not verified) :: Wed, 01/02/2008 - 12:12am

For whatever the natterings of draft pundits are worth at this stage, this quarterback class is seen as containing a lot of good players worthy of a first round pick (Andre Woodson of Kentucky, Matt Ryan of Boston College, Brian Brohm of Louisville, Colt Brennan of Hawaii and maybe even Chad Henne of Michigan). What it does not have is a player widely expected to be an NFL superstar on whom a team might use a top five pick. Those guys are currently projected in the 16-48 range. Jake Long, on the other hand, is regarded as the best left tackle prospect in a long time. Glenn Dorsey may be the best player in the class, but I can't see anyone drafting a DT first overall, and D-line is not high on the Dolphins' list of needs. Long is the smart pick: they'll suck again next year and if that class contains a better QB prospect, they'll be well placed to take him. Convincing yourself that a draft contains a franchise quarterback because you need one is a mistake which can land you in serious trouble - see the selections of Alex Smith over Braylon Edwards, David Carr over Julius Peppers and so on. I submit that there is no reliable place to get a franchise quarterback, and that the best strategy is to acquire a cheapish, competent quarterback (trade for Jim Sorgi would be favourite), surround him with good supporting talent, and move heaven and earth to get yourself in position to draft a prospect you believe is the real deal if one comes along. This appears, incidentally, to be precisely Mike Shanahan's thinking. Derek Anderson is living proof of what a mediocre QB can accomplish if the supporting talent is good enough.

22
by Justin Zeth (not verified) :: Wed, 01/02/2008 - 12:56am

You're right about the quarterbacks, now that I've taken some time to look at them. Colt Brennan is cratering into the sixth round on national TV as we speak, and Matt Ryan--generally regarded as the top QB prospect--has games started/comp% stats quite similar to JaMarcus Russell's, just a tick better than J.P. Losman's and inferior to Eli Manning's. That sound like a guy you want to give $35 million cash to? Me neither.

I'm not as sold on Jake Long as some. The Dolphins probably need to trade down for whatever trifle they can get, just to avoid paying a huge bonus to a player that isn't worth it.

23
by Johonny (not verified) :: Wed, 01/02/2008 - 1:38pm

What does this say about the Dolphins ownership? It was less than a year into rebuilding this team. A bad season was pretty much expected by all. Had Ronnie Brown and Trent Green remained healthy the team could very likely have won 2-3 more games. Yet in a total panic move he hires yet another person to rebuild his team. The Dolphins biggest problem is in ownership. Their owner simply has no idea how to build a front office. How long will Parcells have to build this front office before we see yet another panic move...

24
by Justin Zeth (not verified) :: Wed, 01/02/2008 - 2:18pm

Has anybody ever fired Bill Parcells? Everywhere he's gone, he shows up, does good work, gets bored and quits.