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29 Sep 2007
FO Mailbag: Do Bad Teams Win 56-21?
Tommy Greenbaum: I was wondering how statistically significant is the Eagles 56 points and 35 point margin of victory against Detroit. Has a 8-8 team ever scored that many points or won by that much? Do only playoff or near playoff teams do this?
Actually, no. Although winning big on a regular basis is the sign of a great team, mediocre teams also win big every so often.
Let's start with 56, which is just a huge, huge number. Since 1983, the Eagles are only the 13th team to score 56 or more points in a game. Even more surprising, however, is the fact that half of the teams that scored 56 during the regular season finished at 8-8 or worse!
2004 Week 12: CIN 58 (8-8) CLE 48 (4-12)
2004 Week 7: KC 56 (7-9) ATL 10 (11-5)
2000 Week 5: STL 57 (10-6) SD 31 (1-15)
1996 Week 11: STL 59 (6-10) ATL 16 (3-13)
1992 Week 7: SF 56 (14-2) ATL 17 (6-10)
1991 Week 11: WAS 56 (14-2) ATL 17 (10-6)
1990 Week 14: HOU 58 (9-7) CLE 14 (3-13)
1989 Week 8: CIN 56 (8-8) TB 23 (5-11)
1989 Week 15: CIN 61 (8-8) HOU 7 (9-7)
1985 Week 11: NYJ 62 (11-5) TB 28 (2-14)
PLAYOFFS:
1999 Week 19: JAC 62 (14-2) MIA 7 (9-7)
1995 Week 18: PHI 58 (10-6) DET 37 (10-6)
OK, what is it with the Atlanta Falcons and giving up 56 points?
A 35-point margin of victory is much more common than 56 points by one team. Since 1983, including the playoffs, there have been an average of 5.8 games each season where one team beats another by 35+ points.
And once again, beating another team by 35+ points is not necessarily a sign of a great team. Removing postseason and 1987 replacement-player games, 126 teams have won by 35+ points. On average, these teams won 10.1 games per season. The teams that lost by 35+ points average 6.1 wins per season.
34 of the 126 teams finished 8-8 or worse. In fact, remember just last year? The Jaguars beat the Jets 41-0, and the Steelers beat the Chiefs 45-7. The two winning teams finished 8-8. The two teams they beat both made the playoffs. Those are two of the eight games since 1983 where a team that finished 8-8 or worse beat a team that eventually had a winning record by 35+ points.
2006 Week 5: JAC 41 (8-8) NYJ 0 (10-6)
2006 Week 6: PIT 45 (8-8) KC 7 (9-7)
2004 Week 7: KC 56 (7-9) ATL 10 (11-5)
1999 Week 15: OAK 45 (8-8) TB 0 (11-5)
1997 Week 16: IND 41 (3-13) MIA 0 (9-7)
1989 Week 15: CIN 61 (8-8) HOU 7 (9-7)
1988 Week 6: GB 45 (4-12) NE 3 (9-7)
1986 Week 12: MIA 45 (8-8) NYJ 3 (10-6)
Usually, winning by five touchdowns is the sign of an excellent team -- but it isn't a guarantee, especially if you beat another bad team. Of course, I happen to think that by the end of the season, we will all see that the Eagles are a good team and the Lions are a mediocre team, not the other way around.
38 comments, Last at 01 Oct 2007, 9:41pm by B
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Comments
Awesome!
The Eagles are doomed!!!
I wonder if this issue is confounded by a couple things. First, football is very hard. It takes a lot of effort, and I think we've all seen teams, particularly the teams we follow closely, simply not show up every once in a while, for whatever reason (the Mike Sherman Packers tossed in about two each year). Second, I imagine in many blowouts, turnovers were very lopsided, which can of course indicate a luck factor, and is very hard to overcome, even for a superior team (to which anyone who gambles can attest).
Actually, the 10-6 vs 6-10 gap isn't unimpressive, given how many teams typically win 7-9 games. And roughly 1/4 of blowout winners being 8-8 or worse? Should we really expect it to be much less? I'd be surprised if a 4-12 team killed anyone, but 7-9 or 8-8? Nah. Besides, there will always be opportunities for a 7-9 team to give a 2-14 team a beatdown.
The Eagles are a good team. It is that simple, folks.
The Eagles are a good team. It is that simple, folks.
Well, I'm convinced! Next thread!
Even more surprising, however, is the fact that half of the teams that scored 56 during the regular season finished at 8-8 or worse!
Yeah, but the worst team on there was the Rams, at 6-10 (who beat a 3-13 team - as much as the Lions are going to be a 'meh' team, they're most likely not going to be a 3-13 team given that they're 2-1).
The list isn't heavy with teams who were great, but it is heavy with teams who weren't awful. I think it's probably safe to conclude that winning by 35 points is a safe indicator that the Eagles aren't awful.
Wait, I missed something, too. The highest score there was 62 points. So if the Eagles would've scored another touchdown (and keep in mind, they were inside the 10 on another one, so it's not like scoring another touchdown is such a crazy idea) they would've scored the most points in the NFL in one game since 1983? Is that right? Wow.
What is the most points scored in an NFL game, ever? It seems like games before 1983 likely wouldn't be of the 60+ point variety.
1940 Championship. Bears vs Redskins. 72-0.
The introduction of the T-formation, record stands for most touchdown passes in a game, but highest score ever usually isn't mentioned, so I would assume another team scored even more points.
Anybody else notice this: Week 16, 1997, Indy beats MIA 41-0. That win nearly cost them Peyton Manning in the next draft 4 months hence! Talk about a double-edged sword. One more stupid senseless win and Ryan Leaf would have been... no, I don't even want to think about it.
#7
Also the first ever game in which the offense ran plays to a script to determine what sort of defense the opponent was going to use. The Bears had two plays which would tell Halas whether the Giants were using the same defensive scheme as they had when they had beaten them a few weeks earlier. If they were the T-formation was perfect for destroying them. The first play went for about four yards from the standard formation, but showed enough of the Giants scheme to Halas that he knew to scrap the second play and go straight to the T. Second play went to the house and the rout was on.
I think the T-formation was designed by Clark Shaugnessy while he was a college assistant somewhere and Halas brought him in as a special consultant. I could be wrong about this and would be happily corected.
OK where it says Giants in my previous post please read Redskins, thats Redskins. Apologies.
Also it was 73-0, and the score a few weeks previously was Skins 7, Bears 3.
Good question and good mailbag, thanks!
re #8
Weren't most people higher on Leaf than Manning because of his "upside"? Granted, we don't know how the teams really felt, but they could have gotten him with the next pick.
11. I'm pretty sure that it was just hype going in and that everyone knew Manning was FAR superior than Leaf.
Also, how could the Oilers go 8-8 and 9-7 in 1989?
Actually, while 72-0 is the largest margin, the Redskins put up 73 on the NY Yankees in the 1950s. The Yanks scored in the 40s or 50s as I recall.
OK, I should look stuff up first. The Bears beat the Redskins 73 to zip. The Redskins beat the Giants (not the Yanks) 72-41 in 1966. I believe that's still the record for total points in a game.
Shows how good my memory of the records on my 1978 Redskins Calendar are. I was six years old back then.
Re 12
I don't know. That's not really how I remember it. From what I recall, it was split pretty evenly based on "upside" vs "ready to play now". I bet some teams would have taken the upside guy over the ready guy.
Why aren't these posts going on your blag anymore?
Not that it really matters...I'm just kinda curious.
5 of the 13 teams who gave up 56+ points finished with winning records.
re16
What is blag?
Raiders once beat Oilers 56-7 in playoff game in 1967. Raiders team excellent in 1967. Make it to Super Bowl in 1967. Lose to Green Bay packers. Raiders in 1967 probably best team to not win Super Bowl. Raiders set record for team sacks in 1967.
Mistake in last post. Raiders beat Oilers 40-7 in 1967. Beat Oilers 56-7 in 1969. In 1969 Raiders lost to Chiefs in playoffs. Chiefs win game after controversial call on O Taylor catch when he step out of bounds referess call it okay catch. Clearly anyone with eyesight can see Taylor caught ball out of bounds. If instant replay was working in NFL in 1969, Raiders win game and win Superbowl of 1969. Raiders great that year got cheated by referees. Another case of great raiders frnahcise being screwed by league
re: 18
see link in my name
The duplicitous 1989 Houston Oilers managed to both score 56 and give up 56... and finish the season both 8-8 and 9-7.
How about the '05 Packers (4-12) beating the Saints 52-3.
also big fan of Jason Campbell, saw him play
I played All Pro 2K football with Ivan.
I use Skulls team. Haven't seen them play in NFl yet. Maybe tomorrow they will be on. Would like to see Big blue teams again. Giants and Bills I like.
Skulls have receiver who plays like Jerrel Rice in 4th quarter. Damon James is his name. I can't wait to see him play in NFL game soon. Doesanyone know his stats? In the game he caught 4 passes for 192 yards and 2 touchdowns in 4th quaretr./ He caught nothing in rest of game.
re20
In words of Terry Bradhsaw- not funny.
re25
What is that? What team is skulls? Do you think Houston team is called Skulls? They are Texans. Thats only team with skull ike helmets.
Re: 21. Sorry, typo. That's the Bengals who actually scored 56 twice in 1989.
It appears that the answer to this question is a resounding yes. The Eagles are a terrible football team with a coach incapable of making adjustments on the fly.
PK Brooks:
Every team looks bad when you take away 5 of its best 10 players and sit them on the bench.
It looks like the Eagles fell to earth this week.
In 1973, the Falcons opened the season with a 62-3 win over the Saints. The next week, they lost to the Rams 31-0 (they also lost their third game, 31-6).
re: 19
It was a bad call, but I don't know if the Raiders would have won the game. IIRC, the Cheifs were leading 10-7 at the time?
Doesn't this data (both 56 points and 35 point margin of victory) throw a giant wrench in the whole theory of "blowouts are a better sign of greatness than close victories?"
At the very least, it says more directed analysis is required to pick apart meaningless blow outs from meaningful ones.
I remember the Bears-Redskins score because of the earlier 7-3 meeting. It's the same score both times, just with both digits on one side in the championship.
If Detroit is mediocre this season, sadly, that would be a huge improvement over last season.
I thought it was funny that "everyone" was talking about how it had been so long since the Eagles had scored that many points. I wanted to raise my hand and say "um, except for that game against this very team, playoffs, you know ... Lomas Brown, guarantee ...".
Re #18
Most Sacks/Team, Season:
72 Chicago, 1984
71 Minnesota, 1989
70 Chicago, 1987
What on g-d's green earth are you blathering about?
re: 32
I believe the 1967 Raiders set the sack record at the time, which has since been broken. But I think the Raiders record still stands for a 14-game schedule.
Question for next week. Do good teams rack up 130 yards in penalties in a game?
Doesn’t this data (both 56 points and 35 point margin of victory) throw a giant wrench in the whole theory of “blowouts are a better sign of greatness than close victories?�
Not in the slightest. Blowouts, plural, are a better sign of greatness than close wins. But one blowout victory, no matter how one-sided, doesn't prove that a team is great. Half a dozen blowout victories usually does the trick, though.
For shear mind-bogglitude, I always remember:
Georgia Tech 222
Cumberland 0
I didn't realize this was 1916, tho!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1916_Cumberland_vs._Georgia_Tech_football_g...
The Eagles have been a constant subplot the last couple years around here... last year, they lost all these games but DVOA said they were good. this year, people still think they're good, and then they pull a stinker like last night. As a diehard Eagles fan who lives and dies with each play, it's been tough! I think they're good, but...jeez Andy, give the guy some help at LT!
I think the overall lesson here is one game isn't enough data points to judge a team, no matter how one-sided the game was.
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