Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

15 Oct 2007

The Rams Are Who We Thought They Were

Only more so. Discuss.

Posted by: Sean McCormick on 15 Oct 2007

27 comments, Last at 17 Oct 2007, 12:40am by Pat

Comments

1
by mmm... sacrilicious (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 2:11pm

Randy McMichael must carry some kind of offense-killing virus.

2
by B (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 2:28pm

So, who gets their first victory, the Rams or the Dolphins? Man, how sweet would it be if some team went undefeated while one of those two goes, ummm, defeated?

3
by mawbrew (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 2:54pm

I can't resist any headline that plays on the Denny Greenism noted here, but the Rams really are snakebit. Pace. Jackson. Bulger. Holt doesn't seem 100%. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of nice offensive games from them when most of these guys get healthy, but their year is already done.

4
by citizen jason (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 2:54pm

Well, the Rams play the Seahacks next week, so that will probably be their first win. It worked for the Saints ...

5
by itis (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 3:07pm

The Rams were Shannon Sharpe's NFC pick to go to the Superbowl.. surely they're better than everyone they've played, the ball just isn't bouncing their way..

6
by G_Man (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 3:08pm

I'm a Rams fan, and the only way I can enjoy this year is to root for 0-16. It's actually kinda fun. Dolphin fans should try it.

7
by andrew (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 3:11pm

The real reason for the Rams' collapse is not their injuries but rather the invoking of the Football Outsiders Message BOard Curse (FOMBC) in the open discussion forums, Prospectus discussion in which Rams follower Max attempted to take the FO & Prospectus to task for not thinking highly enough of the Rams in this thread.

Specficially, the line:
FO thinks the Rams offense will not be as effective as last year because they went too injury free and should expect more injuries this year.

rings ironic.

I should point out that max took it with stride near the end of the thread, and should not be held liable for the Rams woes ;)

8
by B (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 3:22pm

7: FOMBC is a dangerous mistress indeed. I had thought it only affected posts on the DVOA rankings threads, but now it's working on pre-season PFP threads, too.

9
by Pat (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 4:06pm

Yes, bad injury luck happens when a decent portion of your offense played with Otto Graham.

Okay, that's an exaggeration, but seriously, what was Linehan thinking letting Kevin Curtis go when Isaac Bruce's warranty is waaay past up?

I mean, I'm not saying that Kevin Curtis is a god or anything, but the guy replaced Bruce effectively in 2005. Why they didn't extend his contract then I have no idea.

10
by Parker (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 4:16pm

I don't think this thread is very much fun.

11
by SoulardX (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 4:30pm

Hey FO, before you talk all this junk about calling the Rams season accurately, do note that you will probably still MISS their mean win projection by FIVE wins. Therefore, that headline isn't very acccurate. Your model still can't figure out the Rams!

12
by SoulardX (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 4:31pm

Ohh and Pat, I am no fan of the Rams front office, but they did offer Kevin Curtis the identical contract he got in PHI. The difference was that Curtis wasn't guranteed a starting spot in St. Louis. Perhaps that was the front office's mistake, but don't think they didn't see value in Curtis.

13
by zlionsfan (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 4:45pm

Curtis also posted decent numbers in 2006 when Bruce was healthy.

Maybe it was a salary issue? I mean, they've got Holt and Bruce tied up. Not even the Colts lock up three receivers.

I kind of feel sorry for the Rams.

Well, no, actually I wish they'd start winning so that they don't pick before the Lions.

(checks 2007 standings)

oops. Thirteen teams picking ahead of Detroit right now?

Hmm ... middle pick ... that would be a linebacker ... needs to be from a power school ...

"The Detroit Lions select Xavier Adibi, linebacker, Virginia Tech."

14
by johonny (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 5:03pm

As a Dolphin fan I would get no joy watching the team go 0-16. I really get no entertainment watching the team period. There's more interesting things in life than watching a terrible football team every week.

15
by Fnor (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 5:17pm

14: That's because they don't have the explosive Devin Hester, the most awesomely exciting and awesome football player on the planet.

16
by karl, miami (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 7:18pm

re 15:

But Fnor, you forget. The Dolphins have the 9th pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, Ted Ginn, Wide Receiver, Ohio State. Just wait until you see this guy return punts.

oh, wait...we have seen him return punts...

17
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 8:42pm

#1: He does. The Fins might be 0-6, but their offense is twice as good as last year's. Wife Beater's replacement even caught two TDs against the Browns, something he never did in a single game.

18
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 8:46pm

I think instead of letting the Pats play the Fins, a game that nobody in America besides Boston will be watching after the first quarter, Goodell should arrange for the Fins and Rams to pay each other Sunday so *one* of them will get a win or at least a tie. Now *that* game would be a ratings bonanza. Admit it, you'd all watch :-)

19
by putnamp (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 11:18pm

#18,

Why would I watch?

20
by Pat (not verified) :: Mon, 10/15/2007 - 11:31pm

The difference was that Curtis wasn’t guranteed a starting spot in St. Louis. Perhaps that was the front office’s mistake, but don’t think they didn’t see value in Curtis.

Same problem, really. There's no way they shouldn't've offered Curtis the starting job, and kept Bruce healthy as a third receiver.

And honestly, if you have to choose between an 8000 year old receiver and a sub-30 receiver who's just as good - you choose the freaking young kid.

But I had heard previously that they let Curtis go because they wanted a slot receiver with size, so I'm surprised to hear they offered him an equivalent contract. It's not like the contract he got in Philly was small.

21
by Bobman (not verified) :: Tue, 10/16/2007 - 1:47am

zlionsfan #13, come on, Indy has Wayne and Harrison locked up long-term, they have Dallas "I am a WR on FO" Clark on his rookie contract still, and draft a WR 1st round (Gonzalez) and 5th round (Hall), I believe. They believe in receiver depth, some would say, to excess.

22
by RickD (not verified) :: Tue, 10/16/2007 - 6:39am

re: 18
Don't be too sure. They could both lose. They'd find a way.

23
by max (not verified) :: Tue, 10/16/2007 - 9:05am

What I find most facinating is that by invoking the FO curse, I single handedly caused Scott Linehan to lose his job. The rumors are swelling in St. Louis that he may get fired during the bye, and if not, surely at the end of the year.

If the Rams hire Bill Cowher, I will feel my actions were justified. And of course, I certainly will not burden the new HC with another curse. ;)

24
by Otis Taylor \'89 (not verified) :: Tue, 10/16/2007 - 11:34am

Opening line for Pats-Dolphins is 15 and moved up to 17 with a 51 over/under. If the Pats score their 38 points then MIA needs 22 to cover....not going to happen.

25
by John Kim (not verified) :: Tue, 10/16/2007 - 11:43am

#24, Patriots just might score 51 by themselves against that defense. They didn't go into that "F*** You" TD streak until after week 1, after all.

26
by Matt (not verified) :: Tue, 10/16/2007 - 4:02pm

23 - Bill Cowher already slated to run the Chargers, Panthers, Browns, Redskins, Dolphins, and Giants next year, plus a few other teams. Could the Rams use him in Weeks 6 and 7 of the 2008 season? He might be free then, but we'll have to get back to you.

27
by Pat (not verified) :: Wed, 10/17/2007 - 12:40am

#25: Trifling with the FOMBC is extremely, extremely dangerous. With your luck, they'll hire Bill Cowher, who'll hire Norv Turner as OC (after he gets fired), and then Cowher will retire in preseason, leaving Turner as your new HC.