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21 Dec 2007
Steelers' Wheel of Running Backs
In my column on injury rates that I published yesterday on the Patriots Daily site, I promised that I would go over the effects by position in next week's column, the second part of the injury feature.
However, the column was almost immediately followed by Willie Parker breaking his fibula, not only costing my fantasy team its biggest weapon in its championship game, but according to some observers, the Steelers its season. With that in mind, I figured that it might make sense to discuss my injury research and what it says about running back injuries.
The good news for Steelers fans is that running back injuries don't show a significant correlation with many other variables -- at least, not relative to those injury rates at other positions. The relationship between running back injury rate and a team's wins from year-to-year was -.15; between RB injury rate and year-to-year DVOA, it was -.21. Both are middle of the pack as compared to other positions.
Correlation, of course, is not always causation, so let's try and drill down further into the places where running backs have a significant effect: Namely, let's focus on the offense. Here's where some of the more fascinating aspects of the research data can be teased out. As you would likely figure, there is some correlation between the injury rate of a running back and the difference in their year-to-year rushing DVOA, with a relationship of -.23. What's really interesting, though, is that quarterback injury rate enjoys a nearly similar relationship with year-to-year rushing DVOA, at -.21. What that implies is that losing a quarterback, on average, can be about as hurtful for a team's running game as losing the running back himself!
In the passing game, the reverse effect isn't as pronounced. The correlation between a quarterback's injury rate and a team's year-to-year passing DVOA is -.29; for running backs, it's only -.18.
Personally, I don't think the Steelers will miss a beat. Parker's not a particularly impressive back, and the workload he'd taken this year had seemed to sap some of his speed in recent weeks. His -11.5% DVOA was nothing to write home about, while Najeh Davenport's DVOA is an immaculate 24.8%. Although he was ripping apart a very mediocre Rams defense tonight, Davenport's mix of size and strength has impressed onlookers, myself included, in the past. The only thing that's appeared to come between him and success has been playing time: He holds onto the ball (fumbling twice since 2003), he's a good pass blocker (he played fullback at Miami) and receiver, and although he runs a little high and sometimes seeks out contact instead of avoiding it, he's not a player the Steelers going to suddenly collapse with as their featured back. Oh, and he pooped in someone's closet once. But, hey, let he who is without sin cast the first... um... Najeh Davenport, everybody! Tip your waitresses.
34 comments, Last at 23 Dec 2007, 8:17am by Bobman
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Comments
Divine intervention saves him from the curse of 370?
1.
Yeah, breaking your leg just before hitting 370 was the best thing to do for him.
Now he will be saved from injury.
Personally, I don’t think the Steelers will miss a beat.
.
Maybe Davenport replacing the role of Parker not, but now is Gary Russel in the role of Najeh.
We have to wait and see if that will be the same 1-2 punch.
2: At least this is the same sort of injury Steve Smith had in 2004, and Smith was all the way back in 2005.
I think that we could see a positive trend on the running game from here on now, even with the horrific job of Mahan and Simmons...but when I saw Big Ben bent awkwardly after one of the weekly six pack of sacks, I almost pulled a Najeh on my living room..
I knew Barnwell would prove to be responsible for that headline.
4: No doubt. Isn't this the same sort of injury TO came back from in about six weeks?
With all of these broken fibulas this season, maybe the NFL should make tackling a penalty to protect the players. After all, shouldn't the players health be the primary concern? Maybe the league can tape flags to their hips or something.
Don't let Davenport's size deceive you. He is fast, he was part of a notable 4x100 relay team at Miami, but is not a bruising runner. The differences between Davenport and Parker are mostly size and acceleration through the hole. I think Parker actually runs harder. Nostalgia for the Bus can lead to overvaluing big backs.
The difference in DVOA I attribute to play calling. Defenses "know" FWP will run when he is in and NDD will be in on 3rd down pass plays. When the call is not as expected, the chance of success increases.
Plus the O'line is really, really struggling.
One more thing, this is why I have no problem with Heinz field being natural. I think this injury doesn't happen on natural turf.
Clowns to the left of me
Jokers to the right
Here I am
Stuck in the middle with Najeh Davenport
#2 What is the internet equivalent to tongue-in-cheek?
7: Just in time for the pro-bowl!
I like Willie Parker, but to say this ends the Steelers' season is silly. They are still as long a shot as ever to beat Indy or New England in the playoffs. Plus, Davenport has been MUCH better than Parker this year. I think the running game will actually improve with Davenport as the starter (I love ya, Fast Willie, and I wish you a speedy recovery, but I must speak the truth).
Don't let Najeh fool you. It's only a matter of time before he misses a couple games with a hangnail or something. OK. The injuries he's had were real. But if he was in the Army, he'd need his own M*A*S*H unit. I'll be stunned if he makes it through the playoffs intact.
I think we're missing the salient point here, which is that Bill's fantasy team made it to the title game with Willie "2 TDs all year" Parker as its biggest weapon...
Thursday night games are a travesty to the players, the NFL needs to get rid of them yesterday. I don't think there has been a thursday game yet this season without AT LEAST 1 player suffering a season ending injury, has there?
Najeh pooped in a laundry basket.
I have nothing witty to say about this event. I love this story so much.
Najeh looked good... he was squeezing out extra yards all night.
Najeh will always be a No. 2 running back; at least that's what his ex-girlfriend tells me.
Najeh outweighs Willie by 50 lbs- who would have thought he'd have better scatback skills...
Agree with premise of this article - that injuries to RB's is not as dispositive to team success as injuries to other positions - which is another way of saying that RBs in the NFL are fungible. Someone should have told the Hawks that before spending $49 biggies of cap on Shaunette Alexander.
Curious how much absence of interior defensive linemen due to injury mean to team's success. It seems that both the Jaguars and Rams gouged the Steelers going through the big hole left by Aaron Smith. I would suggest that AS' loss is far greater that the loss of FWP.
Diane, the last line of that stanza should be "Stuck in the middle with poo."
Parker’s not a particularly impressive back, and the workload he’d taken this year had seemed to sap some of his speed in recent weeks.
I think what sapped his speed were wet sod at Heinz Field and a mediocre offensive line. On the rare occasions when he got to the corner, he looked good. It's moot for the rest of this year, anyway.
Can we drop the poo jokes and just agree to call Najeh the 'Dump Truck'. :) Seriously, popular media may harp on the loss of FWP as the reason that we struggle, but I think it's more likely that we a) can't cover kicks b) can't block a pass rush or c) can't get our 'number one' defense off the field.
I am more concerned with parker on the field and following Davis at fullback than Willy Parker off the field. Period.
IMO best run setup for Pittsburgh is Kreider at fullback blocking for Davenport at halfback.
Maybe we Steelers fans get lucky, have a nice playoff run without Parker and Davenport is given the starting spot next season.
It is the offensive line that will end the Steelers season. Maybe they miss Grimm a little more than I thought they would. Steelers should draft all offensive linemen for next year. I am almost serious. Maybe five new offensive linemen and a couple of defensive ends.
Parker has been a pretty good back for an undrafted guy. I would amend the argument to most running backs are fungible.
Yeah, I think you are right, people say that parker being out is the end of steelers season, but those are the arrogant kind of people. Davenport has proved more capable and reliable on the 3rd and 1 or 2 then parker has, and thats what they can use.
another thing, steelers could really use the pass protection...
Parker's injury, like Aaron Smith's, ultimately makes no difference whatsoever for the Steelers' season. They're still going to win a close game over Baltimore, they're still going to beat Cleveland in the playoffs, and their seasons still ends with their getting blown off the field in Indianapolis.
In 4 seasons, Willie Parker has had a positive DVOA three times. In the same period, Najeh Davenport had a positive DVOA twice. Davenport's numbers veer from -32.6 to +24.8. In at least one season, he was 3rd of 3 Green Bay backups. He never has had more than 77 rush attempts. There is little reason to believe he can take the load. He never has done so.
As others have said, this may not matter: it is highly likely that the Steelers' season is just 2 to 3 games from done. This has little to do with the RB position. It has everything to do with the fact that they are a 34 defense now fielding just one NFL quality D-lineman (Hampton) and 4 Cover 2-size LB.
Invoking DVOA or other such metrics is of dubious predictive value in that those have shown to be highly volatile. While some RB have persisted at or near the top (Westbrook, LT, Tiki Barber, Marion Barber, Fred Taylor and Addai) most have not.
LJ, Jackson, Betts, Lewis, Jones, James, Anderson, Portis, McGahee and Bell are among the numbered oscillating from top to bottom. Not all have been victims of the so-called curse of 370. This suggests that some factors which are not measured by DPAR and etc. may strongly influence player performance.
#29 says they’re still going to beat Cleveland in the playoffs
You assume San Diego loses a game and the Steelers are #3. Equally likely is that the Steelers beat Baltimore then go against Jacksonville.
Re 29:
Why do they even bother to play the games? They might as well just give New England the Lombardi now, and spare us all the wasted time.
#27
Joe, I would hope Davenport has converted more 3rd downs than Parker... since, you know he IS the 3rd down back. Has Parker even had a 3rd down attempt this year?
Parker was just fine on 3rd downs AND the goal line last year. That was before the offensive line turned into a pumpkin.
Just some stellar commentary. I may have missed it, but nothing about Najeh getting some more runs now that FWP is injured...? Or when the big guy makes a move on the Heinz Field grass, he leaves skid marks. How many miles from Pittsburgh to Hershey? Is their a major road connecting them?
Bill B, I always blamed Indy's one crap year since 1998 on Edge getting hurt (2001). My view was that, even with Rhodes getting 1,104 yards in 10 starts (on top of Edge's 662, that was good production for the season from 2 guys), it affected the play action game, plus a younger Manning tried to overcompensate and pressed a little too much. Not sure if this is the exception/outlier to your findings or not. In addition to getting the HC fired, my feeling is that every aspect of the team suffered a letdown that year. Hard to blame it all on Edge, but he may have been the glue.
Another reason it is cool that Irsay gave him a SB ring even though he left the year before. A way of saying that without him in prior seasons, they wouldn't have made it.
Say what you will about his dad, Ravens fans, Jim Irsay is a good guy and a good owner. How many other SB-winning owners gave rings to valued ex-employees? I think if they win it this year, Jason David will get one... just to make him feel better about his crappy year. And his crappy alma-mater. (sorry, I had to say it)
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