Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

16 Apr 2007

Vince Young, Meet Madden Curse

The nightmare off-season of the Tennessee Titans just gets worse and worse. The Nashville City Paper is reporting that Vince Young is the coverboy for Madden 08. Normally, the player on the cover is tied in some way to the changes made in the game that year, but I'm not sure what kind of changes Vince Young would signify. Better scrambling? Throw sidearm when you hit the side trigger? Bo Scaife gets a 97 rating, perhaps?

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 16 Apr 2007

80 comments, Last at 19 Apr 2007, 12:37am by Sid

Comments

1
by D (not verified) :: Mon, 04/16/2007 - 10:47pm

A scrambling QB on the cover of Madden, what could possibly go wrong?

2
by Sergio (not verified) :: Mon, 04/16/2007 - 10:49pm

Maybe it's retroactive, what with the Pacman thing.

3
by NewsToTom (not verified) :: Mon, 04/16/2007 - 10:50pm

Tennesseean has the same story. Guess it's time to revise my prediction of 6-10 downward to 2-14. Is it too early to start thinking about the 2008 draft?

4
by sacrilicious (not verified) :: Mon, 04/16/2007 - 11:03pm

#1 - Young could challenge the record, currently shared by Daunte Culpepper and Willis McGahee, for "most knee ligaments exploded on one play."

5
by Rob (not verified) :: Mon, 04/16/2007 - 11:03pm

I hesitate to suggest this, but given Madden's propensity to select aging and/or injury prone players, and the fact that this is a radical break from this... might VY survive the year?

6
by David (not verified) :: Mon, 04/16/2007 - 11:08pm

5 - It's certainly possible, there are exceptions to every rule.

7
by Joe (not verified) :: Mon, 04/16/2007 - 11:21pm

Obviously this is only because Electronic Arts is very desirous of having a black QB get injured.

8
by Truman (not verified) :: Mon, 04/16/2007 - 11:25pm

7 - When was the last time they had a white guy on the cover?
Was it Madden himself?

9
by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 04/16/2007 - 11:28pm

Throw sidearm when you hit the side trigger... Laugh my ass off.

This is yet another irrational case of a Patriots bias and John Madden trying to hold down another black quarterback.

10
by throughthelookingglass (not verified) :: Mon, 04/16/2007 - 11:32pm

Remember back in December when the Titans' future looked really bright and everyone was excited about Tennessee in '07? Sort of tough to do that now.

11
by Justin Zeth (not verified) :: Mon, 04/16/2007 - 11:33pm

8: Correct. The Madden franchise has never had a white cover athlete. I'm sort of surprised Peyton Manning wasn't made the first this year; maybe it's because he would have cost too much, or maybe it's because much of the Madden audience thought he was a weenie.

Always wear your helmet when you're driving a motorcycle, Vince! And when you're playing!

12
by Doug Farrar :: Mon, 04/16/2007 - 11:39pm

I was hoping Larry Johnson would get the cover, if only to add to the line falling apart/four billion carries/insane coach who kills running backs factors. Preseason spontaneous combustion would not have been out of the question.

13
by Insancipitory (not verified) :: Mon, 04/16/2007 - 11:46pm

Booo! should have been Devin Hester, when's special teams gonna get some love?

14
by CA (not verified) :: Mon, 04/16/2007 - 11:58pm

I’m not sure what kind of changes Vince Young would signify.

I'm guessing that they've added a feature allowing players to will their team to victory single handedly. Young surely must get at least a 98 in player will power rating.

15
by CA (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 12:00am

That, or teammate inspiration.

16
by Erasmus (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 12:04am

come on Madden....NCAA Football at least put Jared Zabransky on the cover of its game (for some lame leadership thing, plus they brought back trick plays)

17
by silentdibs (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 12:05am

Curse mythbusted (see link in name)

18
by Josh (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 12:21am

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

19
by Raiderjoe (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 12:54am

Tennesse will not make playoffs now. This Opens door for Raiders whether the draft Jamarcus Russel Qb LSu or Clavin Johnson WR Georgia tech

20
by PaulH (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 1:03am

I couldn't believe LaDanian didn't make the cover. I figured that he was a lock.

21
by Some Guy (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 1:15am

#14:

More like Will to Power rating. Nietzschean Football 08!

22
by Jamie T. (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 1:24am

Hold on, hold on. Don't you all know that the Titans are the one franchise in the NFL that's immune to the "curse"? Eddie took care of that.

23
by Fergasun (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 1:55am

Cue Rush Limbaugh... when's the last time a white quarterback was the Madden coverboy... furthermore there's never been a white boy on the Madden cover, aside from Madden.

EA must have some social concern in the... okay I'm just joking so I won't go there... yes really, it is a facetious post... no, don't sick Rich or Chris on me... uncle, UNCLE!

24
by Lou (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 2:03am

13

Hesters not on the cover, but he is being honored. He's the first person to ever garner a speed rating of 100. Link in name.

25
by Lou (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 2:06am

13

Hesters not on the cover, but he is being honored. He's the first person to ever garner a speed rating of 100. Link in name.

26
by Lou (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 2:08am

Hesters not on the cover, but he is being honored. He's the first person to ever garner a speed rating of 100. Link.

27
by Lou (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 2:09am

13
Hesters not on the cover, but he is being honored. Link in name.

28
by Sean (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 2:17am

Manning signed a deal with Microsoft to be the cover boy for their football game years back. Not sure if that deal is still in place, but it could help explain why he hasn't been on the cover of Madden.

Wonder how many Texans fans there are now feeling a whole lot better that the local hero was passed up

29
by Brian (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 3:06am

Considering the talent they lost, the Pacman suspension, their defense carrying them all year & FO says that defenses aren't that consitent from year-to-year, plus the fact that Vince isn't as good as the media says he is anyway, I already had the Titans penned in for 4 wins next year. Make it 2.

30
by Sid (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 3:59am

RE: 12

Same here. I figured he was gonna collapse anyway, so why not add coverboy to it? I was hoping for Johnson, but I knew they wouldn't use him.

31
by Jonas (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 4:26am

They say, at night, if you're really, really quiet, you can still hear the echo of Merrill hoge's laughter.

32
by Raiderjoe (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 4:30am

re: 27

He won't be laughing whn the Oakland Raiders make the playoffs this season. Raiders staying with personal on offensive line. Not a personal porblem. Problem was blocking scheme. raiders going to zone blocking scheme/ Have right players for system. Sims/Gallery, Cooper Carlisle, Neberry all good.

33
by David A. (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 5:55am

Putting Young on the cover could be a sign EA is moving even further along the spectrum towards emphasizing the youngest players, like they did with NBA Live 07, with Adam Morrison in those weird commercials.

34
by James C (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 6:28am

#28

You do know that you don't pay per word like in a telegram.

35
by Atul (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 6:37am

anyone else thinking LT and Manning just downright refused to get on the cover?

i like PFTs idea that putting young on the cover means they added Wonderlic testing to the pre-draft activities

36
by Mark (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 9:05am

13
Great point. Fix the special teams glitches, show some love for players like Hester, and generate some fresh buzz.

37
by Kramer (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 9:15am

#17
I can't believe you debunked the Madden curse! I mean, deep down, we all knew it was bollocks, but who was it hurting, really? Damn you to hell.

38
by mawbrew (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 10:23am

The Madden curse isn't real? Does that mean I'm wasting my time with these voodoo dolls?

39
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 10:40am

Maybe Madden should have put Pacman on the cover. Little risk there, unless he rolls up into a strip club and gets shot.

40
by Jesse (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 10:41am

31- They already have the IQ test on the superstar mode. The questions don't change much so after a test or two it's easy to get a 10/10 every time.

41
by Pat (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 11:05am

#33: The funny thing was, that article didn't really debunk it. They tried to show "hey, these two other random things also have a similar behavior, therefore the Madden curse must not be real!" Except those other two things weren't random - they also have a mechanism for predicting decline, as noted in the article - regression to the mean (The "leading rusher" argument has another one as well - RB overuse).

If you want to debunk it, try the "quarterbacks whose last names start with M curse" (or any other random letter) - and you'll find that, no, it doesn't work.

All that article did was explain it. It's regression to the mean, along with selecting players who are more likely to be injured (improvisational players, heavily used running backs).

Using that argument to debunk the Madden curse is essentially the same thing as saying "Running back overuse is a myth. Look what happens when I select all running backs over 30. See? They decline too. Therefore it's a myth."

Now, with regard to Vince Young: the thing is, he only has one of the two characteristics of typical Madden cover players. He's an improvisational player. He didn't have a great year last year. He's more likely than the average QB to get injured (probably, at least) but he probably won't regress from last year.

42
by Rich Conley (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 11:16am

re:23

"yes really, it is a facetious post… no, don’t sick Rich or Chris on me… uncle, UNCLE!"

Stop being an asshole.

43
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 11:21am

#7 is the best comment all week.

44
by Ch V Kalyan (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 11:34am

#1: scrambling QB? Ain't he the first scrambling QB ...

DC can't scramble now
MV is just a scrambler now, he never was a QB

45
by Chris (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 11:36am

I agree it would have been cool to have Devin Hester on the cover. Maybe add some new special teams plays like fake reverses or the throw back play.

45
by Chris (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 11:36am

I agree it would have been cool to have Devin Hester on the cover. Maybe add some new special teams plays like fake reverses or the throw back play.

47
by Chris (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 11:36am

I agree it would have been cool to have Devin Hester on the cover. Maybe add some new special teams plays like fake reverses or the throw back play.

48
by Pat (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 11:39am

MV is just a scrambler now, he never was a QB

Young wasn't much of a quarterback last year, either.

49
by Ch V Kalyan (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 11:41am

#41,42,43: Three-peat?

50
by Ch V Kalyan (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 11:46am

#44: Oops .. that hurts but moreso because you spoke the truth

that makes me wonder., will VY be one of those QB who always will be considered as one with the upside

(last year, we regarded as QB with upside, this year is the same and unless he steps up, his supporters will say the same about him next year much like someone named Vick!)

51
by C (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 11:53am

Re: #39

Actually, #30 is the best comment of the week.

52
by MCS (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 11:56am

re Eddie George in comment 22

Didn't he bobble a pass that was then intercepted and returned for a TD against the Ravens in the playoffs?

Could be curse-like.

53
by RMGreen (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 11:56am

Maybe Tennessee fans should have been as proactive as San Diego fans in protecting their players from the Madden Curse:

http://www.saveltfrommadden.com/

54
by Chris (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 12:06pm

46- Vince Young has already been deemed a good QB by the media and it will be hard to shed that perception. If he were to regress, the media would bust out the usual rebuttals " he has no team, no receivers, no line, he's still young, he needs better coaching etc.".

Sort of like the stuff you still hear about Ron Mexico. Nobody is going to blame him : he's good", it's just all the variables around him.

55
by Bionicman (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 12:08pm

I read a while back that Ladainian Tomlinson, Peyton Manning, Torry Holt, and Terrell Owens can't appear on the Madden cover because they have contracts with other companies/franchises (Manning with Microsoft's NFL Fever and Owens with Sega's NFL2k; I don't know about the others). I can't guarantee the contracts are permanent, but it's a thought.

56
by mmm... sacrilicious (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 12:10pm

#37: I think the "debunking" article did a pretty good job of putting the curse in perspective. No, leading rushers or leading receivers aren't random, but neither are Madden cover players: they are all most likely players who posted stats well above the norm. As you said, all this can be explained by regression to the mean and normal injury occurence.

Most readers on here don't (seriously) believe in the curse. The curse is for people who don't understand these stats; this article did a great job of highlighting that through comparison to other similar standout players.

57
by Chris (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 12:21pm

You mean Madden doesn't have a voodoo terdunken he uses to curse the players?

Picking guys that played outside of themselves and regressed to the mean? That sounds too simple and must be untrue. Count me in for the voodoo madden bus.

58
by Pat (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 12:39pm

#52: Well, it's all correlation vs causation. It's definitely correlative. It's obviously not causative.

The problem for Tennessee fans is that, essentially, EA just said "Sorry, Tennessee fans. Vince Young plays like a guy that's going to get hurt or play worse" - and EA has a track record of being right.

The curse is for people who don’t understand these stats; this article did a great job of highlighting that through comparison to other similar standout players.

The problem is that by saying "oh, it's debunked" - that implies that Vince Young isn't in any danger this year. He is. He still would've been in danger if he hadn't been on the Madden cover, of course. But just think of the Madden cover as a prediction, rather than a curse.

A lot like the PFP cover, for instance.

59
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 12:46pm

I would venture that Madden cover players have a big target on their chest, not because they are the poster boy for a video game, but because they are recognized as the marquee weapon of the offense or defense they play for. In many senses the Madden cover player is the face of the NFL for that season. Rival teams adjust their game-plans to shut them down and defensive players look to lay a big hit. It makes it more likely for them to have lousy seasons (Dorsey Levens) or get injured (Vick).

60
by emcee fleshy (atl/sd) (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 12:58pm

Any truth to the rumor that Pac-Man will be on the cover of the next Grand Theft Auto?

61
by Lee Hendricks (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 2:12pm

Need to get the old Madden ambulance on the cover IMO ... maybe involving flip-hologram artwork of VY getting run over

62
by Pat Riley (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 2:17pm

45-The check's on its way, right?

63
by Chris (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 3:00pm

56- Grand Theft Auto: Las Vegas.

64
by Charles the Philly Homer (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 3:14pm

Does Vince Young remind anyone else of Randall Cunningham?

I really can't shake a few of The Ultimate Weapon's early career highlights compared to Vince Young's.

65
by Bart (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 3:17pm

re: 11
I hope Manning is never on the madden cover, just for possible impacts on gameplay. I HATE playing against Manning's team in Madden as it is with al lthe chicken dance routine before the snap. If they made him cover, the focus would be on 'pre snap adjustments' or something. ugh.

Hester would have been nice for the special teams focus. They could have added cool special teams plays..like the punt return team actually blocking the coverage team.

66
by MJK (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 3:53pm

Maybe they'll add the feature to Madden that you hit a button as you're about to get sacked, that will make the would-be sacker pull up and let go of you, thinking you've already thrown the ball and not wanting to get hit with a roughing penalty. You can then escape the sack and score the game-winning TD.

67
by D (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 4:01pm

While he didn't get the cover, he did become the first person to ever recieve a 100 rating in a catagory (speed).

68
by D (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 4:02pm

I was talking about Hester in my post.

69
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 4:55pm

#64 - Hester was already crazy fast in Madden, did they need to make him any faster? I've scored KO return TDs numerous times with him.

Having your blockers actually block in punt return situations would be nice. That and maybe making it so that if you take the chance of making a return you don't fumble the ball 98.9% of the time.

I think we would all like to see Morten Anderson on the cover.

70
by Chris (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 5:35pm

They should put Andy Reids son on the cover of that NFL coaching game...

Either him or Denny Green at the podeium.

71
by emcee fleshy (sd/atl) (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 7:07pm

66- Gives me an idea - what we really need is a post-game-press-conference video-game.

72
by SJM (not verified) :: Tue, 04/17/2007 - 9:42pm

Re: 17

Not bad, but I'd like to see him take on the Campbell's Chunky Soup curse. Now there's a curse!

73
by Fergasun (not verified) :: Wed, 04/18/2007 - 2:24am

We all know Pac Man is going to be the new Gatorade spokesman for Gatorade:Rain.

... and Rich, lighten up will ya?

74
by Richie (not verified) :: Wed, 04/18/2007 - 3:17am

Actually, #30 is the best comment of the week.

I agree. I think #30 needs to be nominated for an "Outtie Award".

75
by Richie (not verified) :: Wed, 04/18/2007 - 3:23am

I guess an interesting study would be to look at all the players that would be likely candidates to be the Madden cover boy each season, and see what rate all of them were "cursed" following the season that they were likely candidates.

76
by kibbles (not verified) :: Wed, 04/18/2007 - 3:57am

My favorite part of the Vince Young choice is that, as mediocre as he really was last season it's entirely reasonable to say that Vince Young could actually IMPROVE this season and people would still say he succumbed to the curse. This isn't a knock on Vince Young- playing mediocre is actually pretty impressive for a rookie- it's just an observation.

One year, they need to make David Terrell the cover. That way the odds of him actually playing worse than expected are essentially nil.

77
by Chris (not verified) :: Wed, 04/18/2007 - 11:17am

Richie- I'd also like to track the hypothetical madden cover players and see how they perform the next year...

2 years ago Portis and Alexander had a lot of yards... and a lot of touches. Were they cursed last year? Portis or Alexander could have easily been on the cover.

Let's see if Hester returns 5 touchdowns next year? LJ and LT are two other guys that were cover worthy. What if they put Marques Colston on the cover and he doesn't tear it up again? How about Asante Samuel and his 10 picks? What about Adalis Thomas signing that hefty new contract?

78
by Independent George (not verified) :: Wed, 04/18/2007 - 1:11pm

#52-53 - Duh. Everybody knows that the FOMBC trumps all.

79
by Joshua (not verified) :: Wed, 04/18/2007 - 4:18pm

We all know Pac Man is going to be the new Gatorade spokesman for Gatorade:Rain.

No, hefty garbage bags.

80
by Sid (not verified) :: Thu, 04/19/2007 - 12:37am

RE: 37

exactly. that hardly debunked the madden curse. that crappy piece of work basically proved it exists.

47 is right, James C wins the thread.

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