Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

26 Jun 2007

What Would Pacman Bring in a Trade?

Tank Johnson joins the ranks of the unemployed and Pacman Jones still has a job. Weird how that works. Or maybe not; Johnson's an average defensive lineman and Jones is one of the league's best cornerbacks/returners. Even if he never plays again for the Titans, there have to be other NFL teams interested in him, right? So here's the question: assuming Jones avoids time in the can, and he's eligible to play football after 10 weeks, what is he worth? This article suggests a third- or fourth-round pick. A first-day pick seems kinda steep, but what do I know.

Posted by: P. Ryan Wilson on 26 Jun 2007

66 comments, Last at 08 Jul 2007, 8:42pm by empty13

Comments

1
by Phil (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 9:46am

Didn't read the article, but...

Never going to happen.

Mr. Jones, I'd like you to meet MR. Lawrence Phillips. You're perfect for each other.

Now, if we could only get Leonard Little out of the league, I would be as happy as Chris would be if Mike Vick gets jail time.

2
by dryheat (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 9:54am

Why would any team trade anything for him? The Titans will likely cut him, and some team will sign him to a minimum contract.

3
by Duff Soviet Union (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 10:20am

"The Titans will likely cut him, and some team will sign him to a minimum contract." I hope that team is the team I support (the Raiders). Yeah, he's a jerk but if he helps the Raiders win games I'll learn how to cheer for him.

4
by mawbrew (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 10:27am

I think Jones trade value will depend a great deal on his current contract. I don't know the details, but I would guess his base salary is relatively modest for next year. If there is no other bonus money due next year, then I think Jones will have a pretty decent trade value (4th round). If there is singificant bonus money due next year (say $1MM roster bonus due at the beginning of training camp) or if his base pay is higher than I'm guessing (say more than $1MM), then he has no value in trade.

There is going to be more than one team interested in taking a chance on the guy (assuming, and this is a risky assumption, that he doesn't do anything else to get into trouble). If they can lock him up to a cheap deal via trade and not have to compete for him as a FA, I think someone will do it.

5
by Pete (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 10:30am

You could actually sign him to a minimum, but incentive-laden contract and do well by both parties. If he never plays then you do not have to pay him. If he does somehow play then he is an above-average cornerback.

However, I would not expect him to ever play again. He is just too foolish. Personally, I would not see many teams trade more than a late second-day trade for him and even this seems unlikely to pan out.

6
by Truman (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 10:34am

Wow. People comparing lawrence phillips to Pacman Jones now and calling for Mike Vick's suspension in a comparison to leonard little. I guess evidence isn't necessary in the court of public opinion.

Regardless, a 4th rounder seems about right for Pacman given his current situation and I would love it if the Falcons could secure him for that price.

7
by bowman (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 10:48am

Considering he's young and talented, this is actually a situation where the player is actually worth a high draft pick, especially if the contract numbers are right, per #4.

I see a team spending a low 2nd, high 3rd to trade for him. However, I also can't imagine how/why the Titans would actually cut him, both because he is worth the headache/expense, and because the accelerated amortization is unattractive.

8
by Phil (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 11:15am

"I guess evidence isn’t necessary in the court of public opinion."
Umm, evidence never really was necessary in that court. That's why it's called public 'opinion'.

I'd just like you to clarify if you're defending either LP or PMJ. Although we don't have definative evidence for PMJ--yet, we do have evidence for LP, he's been charged multiple times for assault and battery both in the pro's and while in college (including domestic violence). I can understand your being a Falcon fan makes you think these guys are outstanding members of the community with what you've been watching over the years.

Also
I wasn't comparing MV to LL. I was comparing my satisfaction to seeing LL out of the league to that of Chris' (where has he been, anyway?) satisfaction of seeing MV being jailed...read the post again. And yes, we do have evidence that LL was drunk at the time he killed a mother of two and a wife. We also have evidence that he was drunk driving another time after that incident.

So, tell me again, what was your point?

9
by Mr Shush (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 11:17am

Let's be clear about this: Pac-Man is the sixth best defensive player in the NFL, and four of the five in front of him are considerably older than he is (Bailey, Peppers, Taylor, Seymour). If he had no off-field problems and was a free agent, he would command a larger contract than the one Clements signed with the 49ers, probably for around $10m a year.

This suggests to me that, if his situation doesn't get any worse than it already is (no further infractions, no jail time, no evidence that his time away from the game has left him out of shape) he would be worth more than a mid-round pick in trade once his suspension is completed.

10
by Eric P (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 11:27am

#9)
You speak as if it is definitively proven that PMJ is the 6th best defensive player in the league. I hardly think that is the case.

I would guess if his situation doesn't get any worse the Titans will keep him. For them to cut him or trade him, I'd expect that it would be because he either got in new trouble, or some of the previous charges/incidents stuck.

11
by Rich Conley (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 11:45am

"You speak as if it is definitively proven that PMJ is the 6th best defensive player in the league. I hardly think that is the case."

Not proven that hes 6th, but anyone who know football knows hes one of the top 10 or so, and one of the best corners in the league. I'm sure that includes any decent front office.

QBs avoid him. That means teams are gameplanning around him, and that means teams know hes THAT GOOD.

12
by Karl Cuba (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 11:50am

9: Shush, to throw out a few names, Tommie Harris, Demarcus Ware, Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Jamal Williams, Brian Urlacher, Julian Peterson. To name a few that I think most people would contest your top six, personaly I wouldn't rate Seymour that highly anymore (as in not top six, I do still think he's excellent).

13
by Phil (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 11:54am

"QBs avoid him. That means teams are gameplanning around him, and that means teams know hes THAT GOOD."

Do they "avoid" him, or are they going after the weakest link?

Let's not get too crazy here. PMJ is good, but is/was he Ty Law or Deon Sanders in their prime good?

I'm sure you could make the argument that he's not even in the top 10 "or so" defensivly.

14
by Karl Cuba (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 11:57am

11: But Hill is a pretty weak cornerback, even if Jones was average, teams would still target Hill. Terrence NNewmann gets a similar boost, Anthony Henry is a slow safety playing corner and so Newman would appear to be a shutdown corner even if he wasn't that good. For the record, I do think that both Jones and Newman have rare abiliity but you need to watch them to see how good they are.

15
by Rich Conley (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 12:02pm

"I wouldn’t rate Seymour that highly anymore (as in not top six, I do still think he’s excellent)."

Its tough to rate Seymour right now, as he was hurt almost ALL of last year. Still, even hurt, he beat out Jarvis Green, who would start on most teams. Top 5 last year, no. Will he be next year? I think so.

16
by Sophandros (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 12:06pm

Let me take the opportunity to note that refusing to pile on someone is not the same is defending them.

17
by Marko (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 12:11pm

I think at this point Pacman isn't worth anything more than an Atari 2600. If he didn't have his extensive baggage, he might be worth 2 Pongs, a Donkey Kong and a Space Invaders.

18
by Phil (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 12:12pm

Thanks Sophandros, but that wasn't the question being asked. I was simply asking if he was defending either of the 4 above mentioned individuals. And I was hoping that Truman could answer for himself.

19
by Karl Cuba (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 12:13pm

15: Didn't he miss four games the previous year as well? I worry that getting banged up is becoming a theme for him. Regardless of the reasons behind it, his production has been lower the past couple of seasons. I'm not trying to dump on him, I'd love him (and Warren) to be at DE for the niners.

20
by James C (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 12:16pm

Pac-man better get well versed on the ideas behind trades. 100 cigarettes for a porno, 500 cigarettes for a shiv etc.

21
by mmm... sacrilicious (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 12:17pm

The article makes a good point - what the Titans will do, as they should, is simply wait until the suspension is lifted. That way they minimize their cap hit and maximize his trade value, since teams will be more interested in trading for a player that isn't facing a lengthy suspension.

22
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 12:22pm

The problem, Shush, is that he is on that level IF he can stay on the field. There is substantial doubt about that. I'd say his situation is analogous to such a superior player coming off a devastating injury, with substantial doubt about his eventual recovery. As more time goes by with Jones not having any more incidents, his value will rise, but only as time goes by. I don't think that by next January enough time will have passed to raise his value tremendously, but perhaps by July or August 2008 it will have. I also think his odds of leading a quiet off the field life for 12 months are about 25%, even assuming he isn't convicted of a felony. The police report in the latest Atlanta matter will be critical as well. If what is reported is true, that a bouncer at the club alleges in the report that Jones at one point in the evening said "(Blank this), I'm going to get my gun!", I don't think Goodell is going to reinstate Jones for the beginning of the 2008 season, no matter how the Las Vegas charges are resolved.

23
by mawbrew (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 12:53pm

Re: 21

Assuming Jones doesn't play this year (seems like a safe bet right now), will the Titans actually minimize their cap hit, (or just shift it to a different year) if they wait to trade/release him?

If Jones misses all of 2007, and plays in 2008, will he get paid the 2007 $$ in his contract or the 2008 $$? I thought he would be getting the 2007 money, but I'm not sure.

24
by Tom (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 12:55pm

The Titans should hire someone to follow Pacman around and tell him what not to do.

25
by James C (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 12:57pm

If you were an NFL player would you want this guy on youy team? Yes he would start for any team in the league, and make them better. But you would have to invite him to team events and get togethers, "Hey Pac-man, come and meet my wife and this is my daughter. Please don't spit in their mouths." And that is if he doesn't turn up with a load of dickheads carrying guns.

If I were on a team that signed this loser I would ask to be traded, or call up the front office and ask if the owner, GM and director of pro personnel want to hang around with the scumbag.

26
by James C (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 12:59pm

"The Titans should hire someone to follow Pacman around and tell him what not to do."

Why do I suspect that such a person would end up getting shot?

27
by NewsToTom (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 1:00pm

Pacman base salary:
2007 $1,292,500
2008 $1,742,500
2009 $2,192,000

I don't have my cap resources available, but offhand I don't remember any option bonuses or whatnot due any time soon. That doesn't mean there aren't any, but nothing like VY's $11M or so option bonus this year.

If he's able to play again, he'd be an excellent value at that salary, or even double or maybe triple that. Remember, it was the Titans, not the Bears, who led the league in PR DVOA. I don't expect him to ever be reinstated, though, and wearing my Titans fans cap, I'd be more than happy to get a 3rd or 4th round pick for him.

28
by Pat (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 1:13pm

What's the likelihood of Pacman playing a full season again, anyway? Maybe he gets reinstated next year, but will he last a full year? Having a great player who's only around for half a season isn't a bonus. It's a drawback.

29
by Brian (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 1:53pm

I find that coaches/GMs are far more likely to make a safe decision rather than the best decision. They don't play to win as much as they play to avoid potential criticism.

Even if PMJ were available for a 6th round pick and had stayed out of trouble for a few months, I don't see a lot of GMs who would stick their neck out to pick him up.

After a losing season or two, a GM doesn't want "took a chance on a psychopath" on his resume, even if he could be had for a dime.

The only realistic chance for a trade would be to a team that has the Owner as GM, like DAL or OAK. There is less risk of being fired. Davis picked up Moss and Jones picked up Owens when they were radioactive.
Snyder might qualify in that group too.

30
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 2:02pm

#24 - The solution to the problem.

31
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 2:05pm

Its in my name. Doh!

32
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 2:15pm

Maybe Jones would be willing to play for the Giants or Jets in return for free admission to Scores and 100 complimentary lapdances a week.

33
by Lou (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 2:55pm

What does everyone think the Bears could've gotten for Tank had they tried to trade him?

34
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 3:26pm

They wouldn't have gotten anything until the blood alcohol results were back from his last traffic stop. I suspect the Bears are convinced that it will be shown that Johnson consumed alcohol, in violation of his terms of probation, and he's going back to jail.

35
by Karl Cuba (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 3:55pm

28: Pat- "Having a great player who’s only around for half a season isn’t a bonus. It’s a drawback."

Well the Eagles have McNabb and Kearse:-)

36
by Eddie George (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 4:53pm

How exactly did Ray Lewis skate for pretty much the same scenario of posse committing murder in a nightclub and become a league spokesperson?

37
by Brian (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 5:33pm

Ray was a bystander prosecuted by a headline-grabbing DA. Ray's crime was not giving up his friends to the cops right away.

Pacman was probably the instigator. Wasn't he heard making threats that night?

38
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 6:32pm

Forget for a moment his personal crusade to shoot up every strip club in America, what I don't get is why some people are making Pacman Jones out to be a Hall Of Famer in the making. He's a good and possibly great return man (although Hester has blown him away in that department so far, pun intended). But he actually had a lousy rookie season at CB, and the Titans didn't make the playoffs either season he played so what's so great about him again? It's not like you can just plug him in and shut down half the field in the passing game. And yes, I watch each and every Titans game because of where I live. We're talking about a guy that Jeff Fisher was actually considering cutting after his ROOKIE season. So now he's the best CB in the league? I'm just not buying it.

Also, any team who's still stupid enough to trade draft picks and hasn't learned that arrogant jerks can kill a season even if they never get arrested (coughTOcough) by now deserves the ruination and self-destruction they'll get by doing so.

39
by NewsToTom (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 7:22pm

Re #38
Frankly, your statement that Hester blew Pacman away as a returner is logically indefensible.

What's striking is just how similar Hester and Pacman were, in terms of returning both punts and kickoffs. Let's first examine punt returns.

Both the Titans and the Bears were excellent at returning punts in 2006. The Titans led the league in PR DVOA at 12.4 and the Bears were in second with a healthy 11.7. Both marks were far ahead of the Bills at 6.6. Using conventional stats, Pacman finished first in the NFL, with a 12.9 yard average, while Hester finished second with a 12.8 yard average. Each player returned 3 punts for TDs, except that Pacman only returned 34 punts, while Hester returned 47 punts. Pacman Jones only had 3 FCs, while Hester had 12; as I noted in the Mel Gray v. Brian Mitchell debate (see one of the Audibles threads, I think), I'm uncertain what FC rate means, but will note that both these rates are well below average. Hester's one rate of superiority in punt returns over Pacman is that he had more returns of 20+ yards, 11 as opposed to 6, or 23.4% v. 17.6%. I would submit to you that it is not reasonable to prefer Hester over Pacman for this reason. Both Hester and Pacman were their team's primary punt returner, with only 3 punts received by the Bears and 6 by the Titans received by other players.

When it comes to kickoff returns, neither team was outstanding, as the Bears' KR DVOA was 3.4, while the Titans' was 1.1. Again, Hester's and Pacman's stats were strikingly similar. Each player returned 20 KOs. Hester averaged 26.4 yards per return, while Pacman averaged 26.1, a difference of 7 yards on the season. Hester is clearly superior to Pacman in one regard here, as he had 2 KOR TDs, as opposed to none for Pacman. But, those two TDs were Hester's only returns on the season for 40+ yards, while Pacman had 3 of that distance that failed to reach the end zone. Both of these are rare occurrences, and I submit to you that it is not defensible to strongly prefer one player over the other because of either KOR TDs or 40+ returns.

As to why the Bears were better than the Titans on KR DVOA, I submit to you their rates. As noted above, each player had 20 KORs. The Bears had 59 total returns, so Hester accounted for slightly more than 1/3 of those. The Titans had 79 total returns, so Pacman was slightly more than 1/4 of his team's total.

Finally, we get to the biggest differentiation between Hester and Pacman, and Hester's biggest weakness (on special teams): fumbling. Pacman has a reputation for having difficulty hanging on to the ball, but Hester is actually much worse. Consider: in 2006, Hester had 8 fumbles on 67 touches, an 11.9% rate. Pacman had 4 fumbles on 62 touches, a 6.5% rate. Both these numbers are high, and would be considered unacceptable from a running back, but Hester is clearly much worse.

Note that I have deliberately ignored team quality comparisons; these surely have a major impact on return statistics, and player performance is largely inseparable from that of his teammates. Overall, the Bears as a team were clearly superior to the Titans, and I believe it is not unreasonable to state for this reason that Hester probably had somewhat better blocking than Pacman, but it is impossible to tell how much and the reverse may be the case. Nevertheless, I believe my opinion is clear: there is NO good objective reason to believe that Devin Hester is a clearly superior returner to Pacman Jones, and on balance the converse is probably true as well.

40
by Pat (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 7:29pm

Well the Eagles have McNabb and Kearse:-)

You make it seem as if I disagree with that assessment (at least the first part). You didn't see me arguing when King put McNabb at #12 or so.

Kearse had his first injury last year as an Eagle, so it's stretching it to say he might not play a full season again.

41
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 7:34pm

"Frankly, your statement that Hester blew Pacman away as a returner is logically indefensible."

Hester set a single-season record for combined kick and punt return TDs, so he's blown *everyone* in NFL history away as a return man so far to some extent. It's certainly not "logically indefensible" for me to make such a statement. I see that I still have some work to do before the 316 hate disappears but I'm willing to do it.

Now if you had chastised me for assuming Hester could keep up that pace for his career that would've been one thing but you chose the confrontational route instead. I'm disappointed, but I won't sink to that level and belabor the point because this week I'm a new poster.

42
by smartass (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 7:36pm

What would Pacman bring in a trade? A massive headache. Embarrassment. A waste of cap room.

Oh, you mean for the Titans?

43
by James C (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 7:51pm

#34, Will Allen

From everything I have read, as far as the Illinois penal/legal/whatever department are concerned Tank Johnson has payed his dues for breaking his probation by going to jail and is not going to receive further punishment from them as a result of his latest foolishness. It was however a stipulation of his deal with the commissioner that he avoid alchohol, so his two game let off is gone. The fool has probably lost at least $10m over his career even if he manages to ressurrect it.

disclaimer: I am not american and do not fully understand your legal system. My comment is drawn from a response from the relevant authorities in Illinois to a question about whether he could end up back in the clink as a result of his lane-weaving shenanigans.

44
by NewsToTom (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 8:14pm

My intention is not to be argumentative, but point out ridiculous statements. Focusing on one stat to the exclusion of all other statistics is ridiculous. Yes, he set an NFL record. He's undeniably a good returner. This does not mean that he "blows away" Pacman as a returner. I posit to you that if I can make a good argument that Pacman is at least as good a returner as Hester, and maybe even better, it is logically indefensible to hold the position you expressed in #38.

If you do have an argument that Hester is clearly a better returner than Pacman other than "he set an NFL record for kick return TDs," I would be happy to read and evaluate that argument. Oh, and just to be clear, saying that I find your argument is logically indefensible is meant to attack merely your argument, and should not be taken personally. I sometimes forget that other people are sometimes more sensitive than I to purely intellectual attacks.

45
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 8:29pm

#43:

Don't feel bad, most Americans don't understand our legal system either :-)

#44:

I'm not the one who apparently took personal offense first. And that's all I have to say about that. You're just not worth it.

46
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 8:48pm

James C., you are probably correct; I thought Johnson was still on probation.

47
by pharmboyrick (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 9:38pm

#29

I would add Denver and New England to your list (Dal, Oak,Wash) of teams that would take a chance on Pacman.

I think Den or NE will be the most likely destination b/c Shanahan and Belichik/Pioli are more secure in their jobs job than anyone in the NFL & they have all been known to take a chance on character risk players.

48
by Marko (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 11:19pm

Will Allen: Everything I have seen regarding this issue is consistent with what James C says and indicates that Tank does not face further punishment in Illinois from his latest incident in Arizona.

As for Hester vs. Pacman, they obviously are both exceptional returners. There may be a perception that Hester blows Pacman away because 4 of Hester's 6 regular season TD returns were in prime time on national TV in meaningful games and either provided the game-winning points or pretty much sealed the deal in those games (the game-winning 83 yard punt return against Arizona on Monday night, the crushing 108 yard missed field goal return against the Giants on Sunday night, and the two 90+ yard kickoff returns against the Rams on Monday night, one of which put the Bears ahead early and the other of which ended any hopes of a comeback by the Rams). So a lot of people saw those returns. He also made big plays in the postseaon (obviously on national TV): He returned the opening kickoff for a TD in the Super Bowl and had a punt return for a TD called back by a penalty in the divisional round against Seattle. (He almost certainly wouldn't have returned that punt against Seattle for a TD if not for the illegal block which resulted in the penalty, but it still made all the highlight reels on ESPN, etc.) In addition, perhaps DolFan 316 lives in Miami and saw some of Hester's incredible returns at the U.

In contrast, I'm pretty sure none of Pacman's TD returns last year were on national TV in prime time. I don't think the Titans even had any such games. (If they did, it couldn't have been more than one such game.) So it's probably a matter of Hester's returns being more visible and more prominent and people not really knowing how good of a returner Pacman also is.

49
by Harris (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 11:58pm

Re: #26

Probably by Pacman the first time his handler told him, "You know, Pac, shooting up a strip club is probably a bad idea." But if we armed the handler we'd have America's most popular new reality show.

50
by NewsToTom (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 12:24am

Re #44
If you're not prepared to offer any evidence other than kick return TDs that Hester is a better returner than Pacman, then no, we have nothing further to say. I will note, however, that if you think I've taken anything you said here personally, you're mistaken. You made an assertion I believed was not supported by objective evidence, and I attempted to rebut that assertion.

51
by Bobman (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 1:57am

#48: Marko

Hammer

Nail

Head. (right on)

NewstoTom, my heart always warms when I see someone other than me write a post that exceeds my screen size (and very well--and politely-- argued, I might add).

#49: LMFAO

Finally, a part-time hot-shot isn't necessarily a liability. Indy won the SB with Bob "4 Reg Season Games" Sanders. Timing was crucial, of course.

52
by langsty (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 6:13am

"Regardless, a 4th rounder seems about right for Pacman given his current situation and I would love it if the Falcons could secure him for that price."

I'm a Falcons fan too, and I would feel pretty uneasy about that kind of trade. He's a very chaotic individual and I can envision him constantly getting into the kind of trouble that'll keep him from playing football. It's like taking a chance on injury prone guys - even if they're super talented, it won't matter much if they can only play sporadically. It might be worth the risk if you don't give up much, but I think a 4th is pushing it.

53
by Phil (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 10:15am

"It’s like taking a chance on injury prone guys..."

I respectfully disagree. Taking a chance on PMJ is not like taking a chance on an injury prone guy...in any way, shape or form. Injury-prone guys don't cause locker-room disfunction (aside from the rare QB controversy), or bring other simple-minded teamates down with him, nor is it the same when teamates are constantly being asked about so-and-so's knee as opposed to so-and-so's multiple strip club shoot-outs.

Also, I think Den and NE would be the exact teams that WOULD NOT take a chance on PMJ. They do take in risky players but I can't think of any player that they have taken in that's nearly as bad as him (I'm more familiar with the Pats, however). Randy Moss would be the closest, but he looks like a saint in comparison.

I see him going to a team like the Giants where there is a dysfuntional team already with a shakey coach, scratching and clawing to hold on to his job.

The Raiders would be too good to be true.

54
by Tom (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 10:26am

Denver drafted Maurice Clarett in the 3rd round.

Also, I haven't heard anything about Pacman causing problems in the lockerroom, or any other Titans getting in trouble because of him.

55
by Phil (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 10:36am

I'm not suggesting that I have heard different than you. I was thinking more along the lines of the Bengals last year. There were multiple times where there would be more than one Bengal arrested at the same time.

As far as Clarret goes, his only crime prior to being drafted was being misinformed and stupid (I guess you could say lazy, too). He didn't get caught for any violent activities until after he was pretty much out of the league. I could be wrong about that, though.

56
by James C (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 11:24am

#55

I heard he was causing some pretty strong reactions in the locker room during training camp in Denver. Apparently he would be drinking vodka in the locker room before and after practice, didn't go down too well. That guy was just on a massive self-inflicted downward spiral.

57
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 11:32am

#52 - yeah, the ATL is the last place Pacman needs to be. If they are going to trade him he needs to go someplace where he can't get in trouble like Green Bay, or maybe Saskatchewan.

58
by Karl Cuba (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 12:07pm

49: Title- "Pacman and the Ghost"

59
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 12:40pm

Taking a chance on Jones is about the same as taking a chance on a guy like Koren Robinson, another extremely talented football player. The Vikings, in grave need of wr skills, picked up Robinson from the drunk tank, and he delivered value for a little more than half a season. The team then developed the rest of the roster with the notion that Robinson would continue to do so, and then ol' Kegger Koren decided to go on a bender, was suspended, and the Vikings had a big hole to fill.

Guys like Jones can work out, as longs as they aren't paid much, and the team fills out the depth chart with the notion that there's a pretty good chance that guy won't last the season. At a certain point, it's just not worth all the machinations one has to endure to plan around the guy's likely behavior.

60
by Phil (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 12:41pm

I guess the best thing to come out of this is we don't have to listen to Chris Berman doing him Pack-Man impersionation whenever Jones makes a nice play.

61
by Boesy (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 5:54pm

One further consideration for the trade value of Mr. Jones is his potential to reoffend. If I recall correctly, under the new Personal Conduct Policy there are negative repercussions to the team, potentially in the form of draft pick(s), who where to sign players who cannot meet the conduct standards. Trading for Mr. Jones would have to take this potential loss into account as there appears to be a (significant) chance he will not permanently amend his behaviour.

62
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 7:45pm

#52:

I'm fairly sure the Falcons won't be trading for Pacman after going through the Vick dog fighting saga. I'd say you have nothing to worry about.

63
by langsty (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 10:28pm

Oh I know it wouldnt happen in a million billion years (and not just cuz of the Vick thing), and I feel where Truman's coming from - with a franchise this miserable you tend to forgive a lot more than fans of other teams might. but they're only forgiving if the universally-despised player is super productive, and in pacman's case it seems likely that his time in the NFL is evaporating. so it's basically the worst of both worlds, a player who barely contributes to the team and who also is a maladjusted loony.

64
by Mr Shush (not verified) :: Thu, 06/28/2007 - 1:07pm

Karl, I should have been more clear. By "best" I meant something like "possessed of most marginal value", which to my mind pretty much restricts the discussion to cornerbacks and pass-rushers. Harris merits consideration, and Reed is a freakish enough talent that he might be argued to be as disruptive to the passing game as a top corner, but I think the importance of linebackers (other than 3-4 pass-rushers) is greatly overstated. That's not to say that having Urlacher, or Peterson, or whoever, doesn't help your team considerably, but I would value Freeney, Clements, Asomugha and possibly others over any true LB.

If it wasn't obvious, the other player in my putative top 5 was Merriman. He may be a cheat, but he'd be the first defender taken in a total NFL redraft.

As to Will and others who have pointed out that worsening of the off-field situation is likely, I completely agree. I'm dubious that Jones will ever play another down in the NFL. But, in the unlikely event that he really looked like he might have turned himself around, and had stayed in shape, a mid-round pick would be too low. If he seems like the same old Pac-Man, it's probably too high.

65
by Yaguar (not verified) :: Thu, 06/28/2007 - 5:50pm

The problem is that you're acting like Pacman is the clear second-best corner in the NFL. He isn't.

As far as the AFC South goes, he's definitely the best. Marvin Harrison has a much easier time abusing alleged shutdown corner Rashean Mathis than he does with Jones. But just throwing a few names out there: Chris McAllister, Asante Samuel, Nate Clements, Nathan Vasher, Terrence Newman, Lito Sheppard, Namdi Asomugha.

I'm not saying that all of these guys are better than Pacman. But all he's done is put together one very good Pro Bowl-quality year. He's no different from Samuel, and his resume is shorter than those of the other guys. He has also been protected a lot by the extreme suckage of the rest of the Titans pass defense, not including Keith Bulluck.

66
by empty13 (not verified) :: Sun, 07/08/2007 - 8:42pm

I could see TB picking up PMJ if possible. It looks like it is playoffs or else for Gruden/Allen, and looking at the cupboard - it's or else!

DALLAS!? CINCINNATI?!

Let assume for a second that PMJ wont get charged with anything else this year and will become a choirboy and Roger will let him play games 11-16 this year. Still likely too late for the Bucs to make a run.

Besides, PMJ likely would nt be in football shape. He would be in T&A bar shape, however.