08 Apr 2008
Bobby Mozitis: I was wondering if you guys could run some similarity scores for Reggie Bush for his first 2 seasons in the league. Just browsing some players, I think Michael Pittman might show up as one of his top comparables for his 2 year stretch.
Interesting question, since Bush is such a unique player. I ran some scores, and you have the right franchise, but the wrong era.
The most comparable player over a two-year stretch, by far, is James Wilder from 1982-1983 (pro-rating his 1982 stats for the strike). Like Bush, Wilder ran about 160 times per season for a little less than four yards per carry, but caught a ton of passes. Of course, we know Bush's future looks nothing like Wilder's future. In 1984, Wilder finally became a feature back, with a ridiculous 407 carries. That isn't going to happen with Bush.
Also on the list:
Billy Taylor, 1979-1980 Giants
James Jones, 1983-1984 Lions
Herman Heard, 1984-1985 Chiefs
Keith Byars, 1986-1987 Eagles
Kevin Jones, 2005-2006 Lions
Anthony Toney, 1987-1988 Eagles
Edgar Bennett, 1993-1994 Packers
One of the interesting things here is that Bush's comparables are almost all guys from 20 years ago. He's a bit of a throwback player, because you just don't see teams giving a lot of carries these days to guys who gain less than four yards per attempt. (One of the items on my to do list is to try to normalize the similarity scores for era, but it doesn't quite work right yet because I have not had time to figure out the way to normalize carries and still get the proper effects of overuse.)
When we look at only one season, the most similar player to Reggie Bush in 2007 is Tiki Barber in 1997. Barber doesn't show up on the two-year list since 1997 was his rookie year.
35 comments, Last at 15 Apr 2008, 10:22am by Rich Conley
The Week in Quotes wraps up with a look at the good, the bad, and the weird from the Super Bowl.
Comments
Bush is comparable to Keith Byars?
Kim Kardashian would never date Keith Byars.
If they would let him return kicks and punts he could at least be the next Eric Metcalf - still not a great use of a #2 pick, but at least it's better than the next Billy Taylor.
407 carries and 85 receptions! 492 touches! Most touches in a season by 35! 365 and 53 the next year, 21st all-time! 10 fumbles on 233 touches the next year!
I am still surprised the Saints did not try more to grab Warrick Dunn-a local guy-to help Reggie Bush.
I am still surprised the Saints did not try more to grab Warrick Dunn-a local guy-to help Reggie Bush.
Especially since the sentiment grows more and more each day down here in the Big Easy that McAllister will not be with the Saints in 2008.
I figure that the Saints are going to either take a tailback in the third or fourth rounds of the draft. Or, just maybe, they take a very big risk from Sample Size Theater and put a ton of eggs in the Pierre Thomas basket.
I still think Reggie Bush is Steve Smith waiting to happen.
I suspect Dunn is, er, done as a productive running back. I'm inclined to think the Saints should just move Bush to wide receiver and have done with it.
I still think Reggie Bush is Steve Smith waiting to happen.
In what way?
8: I think the implication is that he could be a game-breaking wide receiver. He certainly has been far more effective catching passes than carrying the ball as a running back. But I think it's quite a leap to think he could be that type of player lined up at WR full-time (as opposed to just catching passes out of the backfield and occasionally split wide or lined up in the slot, as he has been used thus far).
I could see Reggie playing receiver. The reason everyone loved him out of college is his ridiculous top end speed and his ability to change directions on a dime and get back to full speed. If he could adjust to making receiver cuts (The hard 90 decree turning cuts) and coming out of them at full speed he could be very very dangerous especially because his top end speed makes him a vertical threat any time and his small for a running back size is a pretty solid size for a receiver.
More like Charley Taylor waiting to happen: another high draft choice (3rd overall) who busted bad as an rb, posting poor yard per carry marks his 1st two and a half seasons but showed good receiving skills before moving fulltime to wr and making the HoF. Of course Taylor averaged 15 yards per carry as a receiver while still playing rb a lot, so he would probably ont be a good comp for Bush.
Yes, Pat F., please explain!
My ideal Saints draft involves taking Nick Forte in the third....
Re: 8,12
What 10 said, basically. He's very fast, extremely agile/shifty, has pretty good hands, and generally isn't considered to have the strength or durability to be a workhorse running back. So he's a RB...why, exactly?
I know it's not that simple, but his skills just appear to me to be more suited to receiver than RB. One thing that I've noticed about him (acknowledging my completely amateur background) is that when he's trying to put a move on a defender, he flat-out stops. It doesn't seem to freeze NFL linebackers, whose primary job qualification involves tackling moving bodies, but it might see more success against contact-shy cornerbacks.
1. Reggie Bush is a ridicululous red zone threat.I hope Aaron can find time to run his number for just in the red zone.
2. He's probably one of the best returners in the league right now.
3. The Saint use him as an I back.
No 3 does make sense when considering numbers 1 and 2. I hope some team that knows what they are doing gets their hands on the kid.
#7
Yes Dunn is probably done...but he can also teach Bush how to be a smaller shifty RB and run well in the NFL and prolong his career.
Except even with his ridiculously high number of catches, he's not actually producing very many game breaking plays catching the ball.
He's not the next Steve Smith, he's the next Dante Hall. Kick returner is his calling, not wide receiver.
I would be interested in seeing Reggie's DPAR & DVOA for both seasons. I think the Saint's plan all along has been more of 2006 usage, not 2007. Remember, Deuce was injured in week 3. Personally, I would like the Saints to run lots of 2 WR, 1 TE, and 2 RB sets--with Bush being one of the backs--while constantly motioning him/setting him in the slot, and keeping a 50/50 run pass ratio from this personnel grouping. That way the D has to stay in their base to respect the run, leaving Bush CONSTANTLY matched up on a LB, or at least the TE constantly matched up on a LB. Of course, if the D goes nickel, then you can run on them.
For those not on the Pierre Thomas bandwagon because of his sample size, I will say this--he produced every time he was out there. That's how he beat out 4th round draft pick Antonio Pittman for the roster spot. I see him putting up pretty good numbers on about 50-60 touches this year (don't think he'll return KO's).
Karl would be proud.
it's amazing that a guy who many thought was going to be the next Marshall Faulk or Thurman Thomas is now being compared to Keith Byars and Edgar Bennett. Is it talent or opportunities? Are the Saint's not using him correctly or does he lack the intestinal fortitude and essential manliness necessary to be a between-the-tackles top back? If he can't run between the tackles I doubt he would be effective going over the middle å la Steve Smith.
The issue with Reggie Bush was that through high school and college he was used in a very simplistic manner. There was no real blocking scheme implemented with him, it was simply find a way to put the ball in his hands, and watch him out athlete everyone on the field.
Reggie can't do that in the pros. But unfortunately for him, and unlike similar physical talents like Purple Jesus, he never learned the basics of being a successful running back. When you watch him play, he displays poor vision on the set blocking scheme, and terrible angles in the open field. This bleeds over into his ability as a return man too. In 2006, he was mediocre at best returning punts, and if your trying to justify a top ten pick with his value as a return man, you've suddenly become the 07 Dolphins.
Reggie Bush = Brian Westbrook used improperly and without Shawn Andrews.
I know he's going to improve, but can we really compare Reggie Bush with Carolina Panther Steve Smith, the Awesomest Receiver Guy in the NFL, who carries an offense and makes bad quarterbacks look good? Or is it just an oft injured guy comparison?
Or are we talking about NYG receiver Steve Smith?
I guess my response is "no f'in way" or "I'm really confused right now."
Reggie Bush is Eric Metcalf and I mean that in a good way.
From my one viewing of Reggie Bush last season I feel he has every potential to become the next Emmitt Smith ... on Dancing with the Stars.
I saw him miss out on at least two first downs because he insisted on trying to avoid tacklers and dancing around in his backfield where he could then be tackled.
I don't think Reggie Bush has the jumping ability of Steve Smith, which would really limit him as a receiver.
I think Bush is just not shifty enough to be a great running back in the NFL. If a guy is going to play at 200lbs he better be fast and really agile.
When I see Bush run he doesn't seem to be able to change direction that fast and that really limits him.
He is a north south speed guy, he was way overdrafted. Shoulda gone at the bottom of the first or top of the second.
That Bradshow for the Giants has more moves.
I read 27's comments and decided to watch some old highlight tapes of Bush. I was amazed at how NOT shifty and agile Bush was. We all have these memories of him making people look just stupid, and he definitely did that, but it wasn't with amazing moves as much as it was with explosiveness and blazing speed.
Watching some of his runs, Reggie's #1 move was being able to stop on a dime. If he wasn't able to out run someone, he used their momentum against them and stopped right before they got to him. The defender would be off balance and out of position, sometimes on his butt, and Reggie would simply slide by him.
Unfortunately, when you stop in the NFL you've lost all hope. Allowing players to over persue might work in college, but it's a good way to get tackled for a loss in the NFL. Reggie's ability to force an entire defense to go one way, and then stop and cross the entire field going back the way he came is also considerably less effective in the pro's.
You've also got to remember that in college he played in the Pac-10.
Personally, I think any offensive player in the Pac-10 is automatically overrated (think Matt Leinart, Dwayne Jarret, Mike Johnson, etc) because nobody in the Pac-10 plays defense. Defensive players coming out of the Pac-10 on the other hand, are underrated (think Lofa Tatupu).
I think I read something similar on here somewhere about offensive players coming out of the Big Ten because everybody plays defense there, and nobody plays offense.
The SEC probably swings towards defense, too, and lately I think the ACC just swings towards all-around suck. The Big 12 is fairly balanced, but with a healthy sprinkling of mediocrity.
Did someone on here seriously question reggie bush's jumping ability?
Kindly fast forward to 1:50 of the youtube video linked in my name.
Granted, take combine numbers with a grain of salt, but:
Steve Smith (CAR) Vertical Leap: 38.5 inches
Reggie Bush Vertical Leap: 40.5 inches.
Jumping shouldn't be the problem.
You left out the really relevant stat, though.
Steve Smith Ability to Play Football: 10/10
Reggie Bush Ability to Play Football: 3/10
Reggie Bush is Charles White. A guy whose speed and agility, in college, allowed him to dominate the flat-footed, slow palookas he played against while being helped by an o-line that pushed around hapless defenders leaving gaping holes through which he ran.
Only to, once in the NFL, find out that fast, agile guys are everywhere and those 3-yard wide holes don't exist.
http://jeannettejayhawksfootball.blogspot.com/2007_10_01_archive.html
There is an injury caused by a stiff-arm. That took all of ten seconds to find on google.
Like I've been saying for a while: Reggie Bush's upside (as a HB) is Kevin Faulk.
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