Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

09 Jun 2008

FOX Reports Michael Strahan Retirement

Michael Strahan pulls an Elway and goes out on top, telling Jay Glazer "exclusively" that he definitely is retiring after the Giants' Super Bowl win. On the surface, this seems like something the Giants should be able to deal with, putting Justin Tuck into the starting lineup and using Mathias Kiwanuka more at defensive end again. Nonetheless, it is a big blow to their depth; remember, the package is not called "Three Aces." This is the kind of change that definitely could mean the difference between making and missing the postseason. When you get your PFP, you will notice the Giants and one other team "tied" as the projected second wild card; if the book went to press now, that would no longer be the case.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 09 Jun 2008

36 comments, Last at 13 Jun 2008, 12:51pm by kevinNYC

Comments

1
by JasonK (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 12:01pm

Yeah, the Giants have prepared for this about as well as any team can prepare for the retirement of a still-productive HoF lock, but that doesn't mean that the difference won't be felt on the field. "Four Aces" is now "Three Aces and a Jack," but the bigger difference is going to be in the run defense. For all his notoriety as a pass-rusher, Strahan was always the Giants' best run defender on the DL. Tuck is no slouch in that department, but there will be a dropoff.

Best wishes, Mike.

2
by shockmonkey (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 12:02pm

PFP wouldn't project them to make the playoffs anymore? That's ok, they weren't projected to make them last year either :)

Strahan is a first-ballot HOF'er. One of, if not THE best DE after Reggie White. And the fact that he continued to perform at a very high level well into his mid (to late) 30s, is even more remarkable.

He'll surely have a career in TV, and I'll miss watching him every Sunday.

On another note, that breeze you're feeling is Jon Runyan breathing a sigh of relief.

3
by Independent George (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 12:17pm

I thought Strahan's signature play in the Super Bowl wasn't a sack, but when he read a screen and dropped back into coverage to deflect a pass (and nearly forcing a fumble). That's what made him great - not just the pass rush (he self-described as having only two moves), but also the smarts and discipline.

4
by A former fan of the Great Bills (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 12:42pm

One of, if not THE best DE after Reggie White.

That would be kind of hard, considering Reggie White is already the second best DE after Bruce Smith... :-)

5
by Independent George (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 12:43pm

#2 - Who else would potentially be in the same HoF class? Favre definitely; is Seau still playing next year? Did Larry Allen retire this year, or last? What if Marvin Harrison never plays again?

6
by kevinNYC (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 12:44pm

He was the best run defending 4-3 DE I ever saw. If a first ballot Hall of Famer who finally gets his ring can't retire now, when can he? The leadership void won't be easy to fill.

Osi, Tuck, and Kiwi... it's time to step up.

A football website doesn't have the Giants making the playoffs? SHOCKING! BTW, where did I put my Super Bowl XLII DVD?

7
by jonnyblazin (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 12:50pm

re: 5

Ogden most likely, although its not official.

8
by Tom (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 1:11pm

C'mon, stop the immortalizing. He's just capitalizing on his luck. He wasn't all-pro anymore, and only has a ring because of few lucky fumble recoveries. He's got enough mouth to be a talking head, and his timing is perfect. Giants were just average last year by DVOA, and are unlikely to affected by his retirement. When they revert to their norm, it will make Strahan look even more "valuable"

9
by Independent George (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 1:14pm

#6 - I think Pierce will fill the leadership void quite capably, and if Tuck, Kiwi, and Osi stay healthy, the line should be fine. I'm sad to see him go, but, like the Packers, the Giants had been preparing for his retirement for several years now.

#7 - I think Favre & Seau are the only two I would put in the HoF ahead of Strahan. Ogden & Allen both belong, too, but there's no way 5 people are going in at once. Of course, I never understood that reasoning by voters; if someone belongs in the HoF, he belongs just as much on the 1st year of eligibility as on the 10th.

Are there really so many voters who wouldn't put those five in? (rhetorical question; obviously, there are, and they're all self-absorbed tools who enjoy flaunting the one bit of power they actually wield in their lives).

10
by Quentin (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 1:17pm

I thought Strahan’s signature play in the Super Bowl wasn’t a sack, but when he read a screen and dropped back into coverage to deflect a pass (and nearly forcing a fumble).

I was gonna say the same thing. I saw him do it in both the Super Bowl and the Wild Card game, so I think it's safe to say he sniffed them out with some consistency.

Who else would potentially be in the same HoF class? Favre definitely; is Seau still playing next year? Did Larry Allen retire this year, or last? What if Marvin Harrison never plays again?

Right now it looks like Strahan, Favre, Seau, and Ogden, with the last choice probably a debate between Sapp and Allen. If McNair ever makes the Hall, which is probably doubtful, it certainly won't be as a first ballot.

11
by PhillyCWC (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 1:32pm

Re 2 - Runyan has to be glad that he won't have to face Strahan during what may possibly be his last year playing.

Best wishes, Mr. Strahan, but I can't say we Eagles fans will miss you. Because we won't.

12
by C (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 1:52pm

What media outlet will he work for? So that I can tune in a different one.

13
by Independent George (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 1:52pm

The interesting thing about Strahan is that he was never a physically dominant presence; he wasn't significantly stronger, faster, or meaner than any other DE in the league. He didn't have a signature pass-rush move; as he described it, he had only the bull-rush, and the fake bull rush. And yet... he was able to put it all together in a way like few others. He was smart, and disciplined; he could read a play, and was rarely caught out of position. He was a tactician; if he couldn't physically outmatch his opponent, he would try to outsmart him and force him into a mistake. That's a large reason why he continued to be effective even as he got older; his game was never about brute force or blinding speed, so it didn't matter so much when he got older & slower.

My DVD of the Giants' playoff run is due to arrive this week; I'm looking forward to watching the old man in his final run.

14
by Jimmy (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 2:45pm

Amongst the players who will be considered at the same time as Strahan is Bryant Young. Over the course of their respective careers I personally would say Young was the better player, but played for what was mainly a worse team in a smaller market. If Young doesn't come back he might find himself edged out of the first ballot HOF selection.

15
by Bobman (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 2:47pm

I say all the old farts who are still productive form their own 33rd team. Call it the Canton Hoofers: Favre, Strahan, Seau, Ogden, etc. Say you collect 15 of these guys. Add in 7 UDFAs and see who has a better 22. No depth, of course, but kind of fun concept. Who would coach? Cowher?

16
by Independent George (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 3:08pm

#14 - I love Bryant Young, but I think his being overlooked has more to do with the over-emphasis on sacks in evaluating the D-Line than anything else. NY is a bigger market, but the Niners can hardly be considered an obscure team. The Giants never sank to the depths that SF did in the 00s, but they were hardly dominant during either of their careers.

Young was an outstanding overall player; he was far better in the 4-3 than Warren Sapp (whom I think is the better comparison than Strahan), but was also versatile enough to play DE when SF switched over to the 3-4, and (as far as I know), never complained about the transition. He was neither a pass-rush specialist, nor a self-promoting trash-talker, though, and therefore got less recognition. Heck, I remember that when Stubblefield won DPOY, his teammates all thought BY had the better year (and IIRC, the team responded by extending BY while letting Stubblefield sign that huge contract in WAS). His recovery from that gruesome injury on MNF (against the Giants, as it turns out)was incredible. That said, I don't think he's a realistic HoF candidate - not based on the merits of his career, but on the ignorance of the voters.

17
by bowman (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 3:08pm

9, 10 So will Favre curl up in front of Strahan during their HOF induction?

18
by Kyle (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 3:23pm

Re: #8
Click the link below.

The funny thing about discrediting the Giants 2008 Super Bowl victory with "fumble recovery luck" and "average team as per DVOA" is that... none of it actually eliminates the fact that the Giants won the Super Bowl.

Hey, if average play and fumble luck gets you a title, then by all means, I'll take it :)

19
by dolly lllama (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 3:26pm

ya know ... Mark Gastineau had over 100 sacks in his first 100 starts.

Strahan - Schmayhan

20
by AlexSmithJoe (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 4:31pm

5: Larry Allen hasn't yet officially announced his retirement. He played in 2007 and is not under contract with anyone for 2008 (and therefore hasn't participated in offseason activities with anyone). He's likely done playing, joining the stacked group of future HoF eligibles.

14: When thinking about Bryant Young vs. Strahan, I can't help but wonder just how much that horrible leg injury Young suffered on MNF about a decade ago took off of his peak ability.

15: If the theme is "old farts", the first phone call has to go to Marv Levy. Or the more obvious choice who also recently retired: Joe Gibbs.

21
by Tom D (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 4:36pm

John Madden has to be the coach.

22
by Independent George (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 5:04pm

Doug Flutie as P/K.

23
by MJK (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 5:26pm

For that matter, Seau hasn't announced his retirement yet, either. Both he and Belichick have been very coy with their responses every time they get asked about it.

Interesting how what one player does in a split second can change so many things. If Asante Samuel holds onto that Eli interception (or David Tyree fails to hold on), and the Pats win, then Seau probably retires in a heartbeat (as does Troy Brown, and possibly Rodney Harrison and Larry Izzo?), and maybe Strahan doesn't? Then the HoF class starts to look a bit different.

(Note, I'm not implying Harrison, Brown, or Izzo are HoFers, just Seau and Strahan...)

24
by zerlesen (not verified) :: Mon, 06/09/2008 - 9:34pm

17: It is nice that those two will - almost certainly - go in in the same class.

(I know this isn't a universally held belief, but I did like Favre more after the record-setting "oops!" sack.)

25
by Mismatch (not verified) :: Tue, 06/10/2008 - 11:14am

Uh oh, better cancel the season, FO doesn't project the Giants to make the playoffs without Strahan.

Mismatch! I can't believe this site still exists. You guys picked the Giants to have the worst record in the league and they won the super bowl instead. You have zero credibility!

#8: keep crying. Did you hear they're televising games now?! You can actually watch them play instead of just reading box scores with your calculator. Weird, right?

26
by Mismatch (not verified) :: Tue, 06/10/2008 - 11:15am

"Three Aces" won the Super Bowl.

27
by nat (not verified) :: Tue, 06/10/2008 - 2:23pm

I can't say I blame Strahan for getting out on top. In his 14 years as a starter, the Giants have never strung together two winning seasons. Their average record the season after a winning season is woeful 6-10. So his personal experience is win today, lose tomorrow. And after 14 years, why stick around for the losing season when you can retire as a champion.

28
by John A (not verified) :: Wed, 06/11/2008 - 11:28am

I could be completely off base, but will Strahan be one of the only HOF inductees in the last few decades to have played his whole career with the same team? That's pretty awesome.

I'm sure there are others, but outside of Marvin Harrison I can't come off with them off the top of my head. (I guess it's probably safe to assume Brady and Manning will both fall into that category too.)

29
by Tom D (not verified) :: Wed, 06/11/2008 - 9:24pm

Re 28:

I don't know where you got that idea, in just last year's HOF class there were 3 players that played their whole career for one team. Andre Tippett, Emmitt Thomas, and Darrell Green.

30
by jimmy d (not verified) :: Thu, 06/12/2008 - 12:33am

Strahan was one of the best and he will be missed. In regard to PFP thinking the Giants will miss the playoffs I'd have to say that's comical. There will more than likely be 3 teams coming out of the NFC east again. Did PFP forget how bad the NFC is outside of the east? You can't possibly think the Eagles are gonna step up this year. With as much depth as the Giants have at running back, receiver and d-line, I'd say they are a borderline lock to at least get back to the NFC championship if not outright repeat. I think PFP is following the wrong pro football league.

31
by nat (not verified) :: Thu, 06/12/2008 - 9:32am

30:
Comical? Sure, you're free to think the Giants have improved since the 2007 regular season, although with Strahan leaving I can't see it myself.

But the litany of statistics that put the Giants in the middle of the pack is impressive.

Points: lowest net points in NFC East, second lowest of the playoff teams. 14th in offensive points per game. 17th in defensive points per game.

Yards per game: 16th (offense), 7th (defense).

DVOA: 16th overall. 19th (offense) 14th (defense)

Turnovers: -9.

If the Giants play 2008 like they played in the 2007 regular season, the playoffs are possible, sure, considering the weak NFC. But to call putting them on the playoff bubble "comical" is to read entirely too much into their playoff run.

It would be fun to see them in the Super Bowl again. But don't count it as a done deal: you're just setting yourself up for disappointment.

32
by kevinNYC (not verified) :: Thu, 06/12/2008 - 3:07pm

#27... If it wasn't for the FACT the Giants have made the playoffs 3 straight seasons (1 of only 4 teams to do so), I might agree with you. Considering they've done that in what's been 1 of the 2 toughest divisions in the sport the past few years, they're not as bad as some/many thought.

33
by nat (not verified) :: Thu, 06/12/2008 - 5:20pm

32:
Nice ALLCAPS. You do have a point though. 8-8 (actually 8-9 after losing in first round of the playoffs) is a successful season for the Giants. Besides, DVOA rated them higher in 2006 than in 2007, so they were playing okay.

As I said, they did not have two winning seasons in a row. I never claimed they didn't make the playoffs twice in a row.

The Giants haven't been consistently bad, either. They have had two losing seasons in a row during Strahan's time (twice, I think). But I think they are slightly above 8-8 on average in the regular season.

My point still stands, I think. Strahan's experience is of inconsistent success. Why would he stay?

34
by John Doe (not verified) :: Fri, 06/13/2008 - 12:08am

There are two question marks for the Giants going into 2008.

1) Has Eli truly progressed to consistently performing at an average to above average level? Or was it all just a prolonged hot streak?

2) How will Kiwi do at LB.

The Giants two weakest spots on defense were safety and LB. If Kiwi can make the transition (he is more than athletic enough for the position) the Giants now have at least an average LB unit. Wilkinson is interesting too, he's fast. He was right on Moss twice in coverage in the endzone (once was pass interference but the point is he was running step for step with Moss).

Eli is a question mark but he's shown flashes of brilliance. If a man can do something once he can do it consistently.

I could honestly see them being 6-10 or 11-5 depending on those two things.

Losing Strahan will be a smaller factor than most realize. Tuck is his replacement and Tuck may as well be a clone of Strahan. He's fast and strong and plays the run as well as the pass.

35
by Alex (not verified) :: Fri, 06/13/2008 - 11:00am

You can’t possibly think the Eagles are gonna step up this year.

Because it's entirely impossible for the Eagles to be anything other than 4th in the NFC East next season, since the last time they were 4th, in 2005, they followed that up with...oh, that's right, winning the division with their backup QB.

Yep, completely impossible for the Eagles to make the playoffs next year. They'd have to improve by 1 or 2 wins to get to the playoffs, and we all know that such a dramatic improvement never happens in the NFL, especially not with teams that had the 5th hardest schedule in the league.

36
by kevinNYC (not verified) :: Fri, 06/13/2008 - 12:51pm

#34... Kiwi at LB is an insignificant issue with the Giants. Because they love to have their 4 Aces (now 3 Aces) package on the field so much, the third LB rarely is on the field other than first down. They didn't lose a step when Kiwi was hurt last year because he rarely plays LB on second and third downs.

The 2 biggest issues for the 2008 Giants are...

1 - Improvement of Eli Manning. He doesn't need to be at the top of the FO QB charts, but higher effeciency and less turnovers will help the team. The Giants are still a running team with Jacobs, Bradshaw, and a healthy Derrick Ward.

2 - Injuries. The Giants were able to overcome the injuries they had last year because they didn't affect the areas with the least depth like OL and DT. Plus, the most irrecplaceable players didn't miss games (Manning, Pierce, Burress). They need to get lucky and stay relatively healthy again.

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