Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Jun 2008

Kiffin, Moore Deserve Acclaim that Lewis, Fisher Barely Rate

I haven't read Sal Paolantonio's book, The Paolantonio Report, but I've seen various snippets on ESPN.com. SalPal's most recent excerpt is the main story on the WWL's NFL page, and it's worth investigating. In an article about the league's most overrated and underrated coaches, Paolantonio takes Marvin Lewis and Jeff Fisher to task. It's fairly easy to argue that Lewis hasn't had a very successful run in Cincy -- he's only made the playoffs once, and his team has become a joke in recent years due to the off-field misdeeds performed by various Bengals players. But overrated? I don't know that too many people "rate" Lewis as one of the league's elite.

The passage about Jeff Fisher is far more troubling. It almost seems as if Paolantonio has some sort of personal beef with Fisher, because he's cherry-picking information from here and there to make a case for Fisher as overrated. Sal points to four different 8-8 seasons as the personification of mediocrity, but three of those seasons happened from 1996 through 1998, when the franchise was moving from Houston to Tennessee. Fisher should get an upheaval waiver of some sort, but this isn't even mentioned. Fisher is also taken to task for his "postseason failure" -- as if losing to the 2003 Patriots, 2000 Ravens and 1999 Rams in the postseason is somehow reason for shame. Three of the best teams of the last decade, and the Titans happened to be in the way. Do people think of the 1970's Raiders as a subpar team because they frequently failed to upend the Dolphins and Steelers?

There's also the small matter of the Tennessee franchise having to escape salary cap purgatory over the past few years. As Mark Maske detailed in the Washington Post in this 2005 article:

In February, the Titans gutted their roster because they were about $27 million over next season's salary cap. General Manager Floyd Reese said just afterward, at the NFL scouting combine, that everyone in the organization had been braced for it, but it was painful nevertheless.

The club released wide receiver Derrick Mason, cornerback Samari Rolle, defensive lineman Kevin Carter, offensive tackle Fred Miller, fullback Robert Holcombe and kicker Joe Nedney. That was bad enough, but it was only the beginning. Tennessee later said its goodbyes to tight end Shad Meier and wideout Eddie Berlin, declining to exercise options in their contracts. The Titans declined to tender contracts to three restricted free agents (wide receivers Jason McAddley and Darrell Hill and linebacker Justin Ena) and three exclusive-rights free agents (tackle Matt Martin, guard Marico Portis and linebacker Jordan Kramer). Cornerback Andre Dyson and backup tailback Antowain Smith departed as unrestricted free agents, and the Titans traded defensive end Carlos Hall to the Kansas City Chiefs for a fifth-round draft choice. Reserve offensive tackle Jason Mathews retired, and safety Lance Schulters likely will be released soon.

The Titans lost three top-shelf players in Mason, Rolle and Carter. Those three signed contracts with new teams with a total value of $80.5 million, including $26 million in bonus money (add in Miller's deal with the Chicago Bears and the figures become $103 million in total contract money, including $32 million in bonuses). The Baltimore Ravens were the biggest beneficiaries of the Titans' salary-cap purge, signing Mason and Rolle. The Miami Dolphins landed Carter, whom the Titans tried but failed to re-sign after cutting him.

The Titans, predictably, added next to nothing in free agency, needing to resort to performing their roster rebuilding by obtaining the comparatively cheap labor that comes via the draft. They surprised no one by opting for a cornerback with the sixth overall pick in the draft, but did surprise some in the league when they selected West Virginia's Adam (Pac-Man) Jones instead of Miami's Antrel Rolle (no relation to Samari).

The Titans went 9-23 in 2004 and 2005, but they've made an estimable comeback in what is now the NFL's toughest division. Paolantonio rakes Fisher over the coals for drafting Pacman, but he doesn't mention Reese's involvement in any of the Titans' personnel issues. Could this be because Reese also writes for ESPN.com? I hope not. He then goes onto compare Fisher to Dennis Green in a manner that is favorable to Green, which certainly left me at a loss. If you give Fisher the offense Green had in Minnesota, I dare say he'd do alright, and he'd probably do better then Green did in Arizona (16-32 record, and one fabulous press conference).

On the other side of the coin, Sal gives us Indy's Tom Moore and Tampa Bay's Monte Kiffin as two coaches who are underrated. I find it interesting that he's got head coaches as overrated and position coaches as underrated, but whatever. I don't have any problem with either one of these fine gentlemen receiving credit for their accomplishments, but Kiffin is probably the best-known assistant coach in the NFL, and he's turned down more than one offer to be a head coach to stay in Tampa Bay. There may be a case for Moore as underrated -- he probably doesn't get the credit he's due because Peyton Manning is seen as the mastermind of the Colts' offense, though this isn't mentioned in the article.

I like Paolantonio as a television personality -- he seems very much at ease with what he's doing, and he provides good moderation when he hosts Edge NFL Matchup with Ron Jaworski and Merrill Hoge. It's just difficult to agree with the arguments he puts forth in this article, and if it's an example of the level of analysis in the book, he would have been wise to run it by a few of his more knowledgeable football friends prior to publication.

Posted by: Doug Farrar on 02 Jun 2008

35 comments, Last at 06 Jun 2008, 11:29am by cjfarls

Comments

1
by Aaron (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 10:44am

Sounds like just another irresponsible blogger trying to create headlines with a sensationalistic story with little foundation in fact.

Wait, this was from ESPN?

2
by ammek (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 10:45am

Ah, the offseason.

So Jeff Fisher (the head coach) gets the blame for conceding two touchdowns (including one late one) to one of the greatest ever offenses in the Superbowl. But Monte Kiffin (the co-ordinator) gets the credit for only conceding one TD (a late one) to the very same team.

Why Kiffin not Dungy? And coming back from a 16-0 deficit wasn't impressive?

And that's just one of the inconsistencies in this piece, which reads like it's from the Coulter/Hitchens school of "say something controversial and then back it up with 'because I say so'" journalism.

3
by karl, miami (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 11:12am

paolantonio has been writing terrible, weakly substantiated pieces since i began reading the WWL online. his work boils down to the latest rumors put forth by undisclosed sources. it's school girl politics at its best. no chance i get the book.

4
by Jimmy (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 11:43am

Wasn't Moore the offensive coordinator for the Lions when Scott Mitchell (I think I have that name right, but if I don't I am referring to the giant statue from NFL Europe) went to the Pro Bowl? Yes Sanders might have had something to do with that offense, and it may also have been the year they brought Lomas Brown in to finally put a decent line in front of him, but still Mitchell was garbage and got to Hawai. So Moore has a track record independent of Captain Laser-Rocket-Arm.

Similarly as far as I am aware Kiffin was the defensive coordinator for Nebraska during their reign as one of the most dominant teams in college ball history. I read somewhere that he fine tuned the scheme at Nebraska before he brought it into the NFL. Again a good track record.

His beef against Fisher is bewildering. For my mind he is clearly one of the better coaches in football, I used to have him as one of the best, back when his roster was any good. His teams were always well prepared and came out ready to play. If they can sort out the kinks in that roster there aren't many coaches I would want in charge of a team ahead of him. The only knock you could put against him is that whilst the Titans' deenses under Fisher have been good, so have his coordinators (Buddy Ryan, Jim Schwartz).

Who is there left that rates Lewis anyway? I could have coached that Ravens defense communicating only using a penny whistle, dressed in a clown outfit and making baloon animals for the kids. Lewis, McAllister, Woodson, Boulaware, Sharper, Adams, Siragusa, Burnett and no real weaknesses (or major injuries); not hard to coach.

5
by thestar5 (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 12:06pm

2,

You might want to actually read Coulter before making baseless accusations. She's a very bright person.

6
by Bobman (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 12:23pm

#2 Right on.

Far as this Colt fan is concerned, Moore is a deity. I look at Manning and Moore as a super F1 race car and a gifted driver. Put me (Brian Billick?) behind the wheel and you have a bad accident. Put the best driver (Moore) with the best vehicle, and you have something amazing. Older than dirt but still innovative. He gets the most out of his talented crew. But without him, they're just a talented crew--a Ferrari looks pretty sitting in the garage, but it doesn't win any races. I'd no sooner trade Tom Moore away than I would Manning.

And Jeff Fisher deserves a ton of credit and accolades. He's the kind of divisional opponent I respect and I enjoy having a worthy rival in the div. Even when bereft of talent, his teams are always tough. Yes, I loathed him for his 3 on-side KOs in the first half a few years ago, but putting myself in a TN fan's shoes, I have to say I'd admire his moxie.

7
by Lou (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 12:27pm

2,5

Please respect our discussion threads by refraining from the following:

1. comments about politics

I agree that Moore probably doesn't get enough credit for the Colts offense, but I feel like Kiffin and Lewis have been rated appropriately for a while. And doug hit the nail on the head about whats wrong with sal's criticism of Fisher who I've always considered one of the upper echelon coaches in the league.

8
by Dave (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 12:35pm

I'd just like to point out that the NFC East is actually the toughest division in football, although the AFC South is very close.

9
by MJK (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 1:00pm

I have had a steadily growing dislike for Fisher and the Fisher-coached Titans the last few years--I think they're one of the dirtiest and least classy (on the field) teams in the NFL, and I blame Fisher for a lot of that--but I have to admit that he does coach winning football. I do agree that maybe he's a little overrated--you hear about him being one of the greatest coaches in the game, which I think is a bit off--but he is solid. (Even if he is kind of a jerk).

10
by mawbrew (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 1:18pm

In my opinion, Fisher is one of the better coaches in the NFL (clearly above average). That said, it drives me crazy when people give him a break because of the salary cap purge in Tennesee without also recognizing that he benefitted by their 'overspending' in the years prior to the purge. If his record was artificially depressed by the need to escape salary cap hell, it stands to reason that it was artificially inflated by their pushing spending into later years.

11
by Becephalus (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 2:03pm

It case it isn't already obvious to you people, ESPN long ago discovered the tabloid rule, he truth interested demographic is MUCH smaller than the controversy demographic.

12
by DoubleB (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 2:27pm

Re: 4

"Similarly as far as I am aware Kiffin was the defensive coordinator for Nebraska during their reign as one of the most dominant teams in college ball history."

When was this? He was the DC in the mid-70's when Nebraska wasn't even the best team in its own conference (Big 8). The guy who led Nebraska's defense in the mid-90's was Charlie McBride.

13
by ammek (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 3:00pm

Also, Fisher has experimented with a series of mullet-and-facial-hair looks which have been sadly lacking in the modern game. One more reason for respect.

7: Mine was intended as a comment about journalism.

14
by CaffeineMan (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 3:46pm

7: Mine was intended as a comment about journalism.

:: ammek — 6/2/2008 @ 2:00 pm

Then pick a sports journalist as an example. Keep the politics out of here.

I always thought Fisher was a very good coach, currently neither over nor under rated.

15
by NewsToTom (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 5:01pm

I speak from experience: don't bother reading Paolantonio's book. It's pretty bad. Brief "review" I did in name, looking at his argument for why the 85 Bears are overrated.

16
by Craig (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 5:56pm

In no way do I think that Marvin Lewis is an above average head coach, but let's look at the Bengals' past a little bit.

Pre-Lewis:
3-13
5-11
3-13
3-13
7-9
8-8
7-9
3-13
4-12
4-12
6-10
2-14

With Lewis:
8-8
8-8
11-5
8-8
7-9

Although there's cherry-picking going on here, that tells us that at least Marvin Lewis isn't as terrible as the Bengals' previous head coaches.

17
by Flux (not verified) :: Mon, 06/02/2008 - 8:35pm

Re: #5. You misspelled "Hitchens."

18
by tom, uk (not verified) :: Tue, 06/03/2008 - 7:20am

I think the worst part of this for me is his argument about the Ravens' Defense. His stats seem to suggest that Lewis inherited a bad one, slowly built it up to a great one showing steady improvement each year, and then the season after he left they dropped to 22nd in the league. Fair enough, there was a recovery after that but how is subsquent co-ordinators' success a criticism of Lewis?

19
by site police (not verified) :: Tue, 06/03/2008 - 7:26am

Hey # 17!! Lets keep the site clean ! No politics !

20
by Feagles - King of Punts (not verified) :: Tue, 06/03/2008 - 9:50am

SalPal has a habit of making ridiculous statements to get attention. He tried doing it with his book on overrated and underrated players, and it seems like he's doing it here with his assessment of coaches. He takes well-respected players and coaches, and calls them overrated.

Jayson Stark did a similar book for baseball first, and it was pretty successful (and well-written). SalPal tried to take the concept and copy it, except for the "well-written" part.

21
by langsty (not verified) :: Tue, 06/03/2008 - 11:27am

"Jayson Stark did a similar book for baseball first, and it was pretty successful (and well-written)."

no, that was pretty much garbage too. this kind of stuff is pure hackwork, and any writer who goes out of his way to catalogue overrated players/teams is a joke~~~

22
by Feagles - King of Punts (not verified) :: Tue, 06/03/2008 - 11:35am

@ langsty

I can understand the sentiment; it seemed like Stark had a lighter touch on the "overrated" side, but I can see your point.

23
by ammek (not verified) :: Tue, 06/03/2008 - 12:05pm

Just a word to the Extra Points people. It's June, and there's not much being written of any value, as the comments for this thread suggest. Any chance you could trawl around and find us some interesting blogs or bloggers that we may not be aware of - on individual teams that we may not support, for example - as well as the corporate stuff? Apart from Drinen the off-beat material has kind of disappeared from Extra Points and, you know, I miss it.

24
by sam (not verified) :: Tue, 06/03/2008 - 3:30pm

Ammeck, For some good seahawk blogs try www.seahawkaddicts.com or fieldgulls.com

25
by NewsToTom (not verified) :: Tue, 06/03/2008 - 5:28pm

Re #23
If you check out the Links Outside the Outsiders section, there are links to a team-specific blogs and some more general NFL resource-type sites. If you're really bored, you can read my book reviews (Paolantonio Report is direct-linked in my name above, and the rest are listed on the side). Alternatively, if you only started reading FO in the past couple years, take a look at the archives and read the pieces from the site's earliest days.

26
by Quentin (not verified) :: Tue, 06/03/2008 - 9:08pm

If for some reason you're interested in following the Bucs, one of the local papers actually runs a pretty decent blog. Some of the reader commentary is actually pretty reasonable, too, as far as most sports sites go. Don't expect too much, though. Like I said, some of it's readable.

http://blogs.tampabay.com/bucs/

27
by *Legion* (not verified) :: Wed, 06/04/2008 - 2:33am

Fisher deserves to be taken to task for a team that, well... doesn't display a very good level of class, either on or off the field. Albert Haynesworth especially.

However, I don't think anyone can reasonably downplay the performance of his teams. Although the Titans last year have the most "bogus" 10-6 record ever, Fisher has managed to make his teams regularly overachieve.

28
by andrew (not verified) :: Wed, 06/04/2008 - 7:27am

"most bogus 10-6"...

that got me thinking, what is the greatest difference between Estimated and Actual wins we've seen...

29
by Rich COnley (not verified) :: Wed, 06/04/2008 - 9:51am

"I have had a steadily growing dislike for Fisher and the Fisher-coached Titans the last few years–I think they’re one of the dirtiest and least classy (on the field) teams in the NFL, and I blame Fisher for a lot of that–but I have to admit that he does coach winning football."

100% agree MJK.

30
by Kellerman (not verified) :: Wed, 06/04/2008 - 11:53am

I'll keep Marvin Lewis, thank-you. He has totally revised the culture of the Bengals and reinvigorated the fanbase. From 1993 through 2002 there was NO expectation of making the playoffs and very little hope of even keeping it interesting when the team got off to a 1-5 or even 0-8 start every year.

NOW there is an expectation of winning. I agree that the man's not perfect and I agree that he'd probably be better off moving on to a different team, but I don't think it's time to run him off from Cincinnati, especially now that we're not fooling around with Odell Thurmans and Chris Henrys as high draft picks.

31
by TomC (not verified) :: Wed, 06/04/2008 - 1:48pm

You might want to actually read Coulter before making baseless accusations. She’s a very bright person.

Aha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha, oh my God, ha-ha-ha-ha, please make it stop, ha-ha-ha...ha....whew.

Sorry, I'm not supposed to be commenting on this, but, ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-oh-it-hurts-haha...

32
by thestar5 (not verified) :: Wed, 06/04/2008 - 4:25pm

19,

I wouldn't bring it up if there weren't always idiots out there trying to bash certain political viewpoints on a football message board. But if thats allowed then I'm gonna comment on it. And when 3/4 of the American media are hacks, to go ahead and pick out one strong conservative commenter, its pretty obvious there's an agenda there.

31,

Well I gaurantee you she's smarter than 90% of the people here, but go ahead and feel as you will. Your ignorance is the hilarious part. I would love to hear the enlightened thinkers who you read.

33
by Jamie T. (not verified) :: Wed, 06/04/2008 - 10:15pm

People often forget that the two losing seasons always attributed the roster blow up actually was only one season.

The Titans blew the team up in the spring of 2005. The previous season (5-11) was actually the result of the most disastrous injury season ever to hit an NFL team. I remember that season broke a few injury related NFL records.

Keeping that in mind, Fisher managed one losing season before getting back to 8-8 after the cap purge. How many head coaches can say that?

34
by cjfarls (not verified) :: Fri, 06/06/2008 - 11:24am

Re: 16
How much of that has to do with the emergence of Palmer?

Over in the Travis Henry ExPnt, I put forth the opinion that its really tough to have a completely lousy team when you have a good QB.

Given the relatively close level of talent throughout the league, I think a good, veteran QB can make up for MANY holes leaving an otherwise sucky team at least average. Even if the whole rest of the team was ravaged by injury, can we really see Peytom Branning losing more then 8 or 9 games? Hell, currently when Kitna is healthy, Detroit is almost respectable and capable of winning 6-8 games. I'm not even talking about All-Pros... just solid, above average NFL QBs.

The only case I could think of where an otherwise solid QB led a true bottom-feeder team was the Pack in 2005 (who won 4 games). If I recall, besides losing Green, Walker, Ferguson, etc. Farve was also a bit banged up (though not out), also limiting the applicability of that case....

Anyway, I wonder if there is a way to test this hypothesis... say, take a QB who consistently was above average DPAR and see how many times, if ever, their teams in future years lost more than X number of games.

Do folks this is just selection bias on my part (i.e. the QBs I judge as "good" is because they win, not because of any intrinsic "solidness" on their part)?

35
by cjfarls (not verified) :: Fri, 06/06/2008 - 11:29am

Re: 23
For a Denver blog, try the "Broncos Bus" on the Denver Post site (linked in my name)...

There is a fair amount of random, worthless comments to wade through, but in general the discouse is is intelligent and respectful. Definitely is not the FOX comments, etc.

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