Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

29 Dec 2008

Mangini, Marinelli Fired

Somewhere in Los Angeles, Steve Mariucci is relieved. Marinelli isn't a surprise, but Fox's Jay Glazer reports that the Jets have fired Eric Mangini after spending like crazy in the offseason and suffering a postseason shutout. A questionable decision, to be sure, unless it was Mangini in that #4 jersey yesterday.

Posted by: Doug Farrar on 29 Dec 2008

41 comments, Last at 02 Jan 2009, 4:21am by roguerouge

Comments

1
by Aaron Schatz :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 10:44am

The password is... "overreaction."

3
by Doug Farrar :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 11:08am

"Steinbrenner" works, too.

2
by Wanker79 :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 10:52am

Does anyone else think that if it hadn't been Chad walking out of the Meadowlands heading to the playoffs, that the Mangenius would still have a job?

I've never been a huge fan of Mangini, but he didn't deserve this. They won more than twice as many games this year as they did last. They were in the bottom third of the league in DVOA last year and they're solidly middle-of-the-pack this year. A decent case could be made that they were going in the right direction. Unless they think they have a decent shot at Cowher (which I don't), this was just stupid.

4
by Biebs (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 11:10am

Tough to argue with the firing. This was a team that routinely gout outplayed by inferior opponents, including a 1-3 against the AFC West and 2-2 against the NFC West.

Favre didn't work out, but their defense was so inconsistent the 2nd half of the season and they allowed career games to too many QBs.

13
by sundown (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 2:06pm

Dunno. They weren't picked to do a whole lot this year and were in contention until their late season slide. Give them a new coach and the exact same personnel and does anyone expect they'll do significantly better next year?

5
by Kalyan :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 11:40am

I see a common streak between Jet'06 and Fins'08. They got lucky. In the three year regime of mangini, the jets have been oscillated between below-average and above-average. There are worse coaches in the NFL but he wasn't in the safe zone.

Also, i wish that the Jets ownership doesn't attempt to coddle Favre. Favre has no goodwill left in the bank with any team to engage in his annual will-he-won't-he ritual. Also, it is instant karma for Favre to suffer the December meltdown for his action against the packers.

24
by AndyB (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 8:09pm

Please don't ever compare my beloved Dolphins to your jets.

The 2008 Dolphins did not get lucky. They won 11 games and finished the season winning 9 of their last 10 games. They finished STRONG, not lucky.

33
by Kalyan :: Tue, 12/30/2008 - 1:14am

AndyB - The schedule drew them AFC & NFC West. That's the luck. They were very TO-resistant and there is no way but down there. I will take back the statement next year when the AFC east team play the AFC & NFC south.

Wishing your team the very best for the playoffs.

BTW - my team is the Pats and not the jets.

34
by Arkaein :: Tue, 12/30/2008 - 1:23am

The Dolphins barely outscored their opponents on the season, and have a Pythagorean win projection of 8.8, which they outperformed by over 2 wins. They definitely were a bit lucky.

6
by Kalyan :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 11:44am

who else? The list is three - Crennel, Mangini and Marinelli. Any one else expected to take the fall?

9
by Richie :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 12:53pm

A few weeks ago I had a long list of expected coaching changes (Mangini was not on the list), but I think a couple of guys saved their jobs yesterday (Tom Cable, Norv Turner). I would think that Marvin Lewis could be in trouble. Will the Rams switch coaches? I have to think that Wade Phillips gets the boot. Herm Edwards is going to get fired.

7
by PatsFan :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 12:20pm

Well, at least there's the consolation of seeing the J-E-T-S collapse again and miss the playoffs, Favre come up small when it counts for the Nth time, and seeing Ratgini fired.

Much rather have had the Pats make the playoffs of course, but at least this is better than nothing.

8
by ChiJeff (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 12:22pm

Wow, so the "Mangenius " gets let go today. I have to say that
I always thought he was a tad overrated. Good coordinator but needs some more seasoning before he gets another shot at a HC position. I always did find it funny how the media and Jets fans were real quick to dub this guy a genius and top tier coach. What did he do that was so much better than Herm Edwards? As much as people love to pile on Edwards, at least he made the playoffs with the Jets on a fairly consisent basis, actually won playoff games and if his kicker had any stones, the Jets would have made an AFC Championship appearance with Herm. Overall, I find this turn of events with
the Jets to be kind of funny.

10
by S.K. (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 12:56pm

Refresh my memory - do we know if it was Mangini pushing for Favre>Pennington, or did that come from above? If he was the one telling management that he needed a better QB then this is very sensible... if the move was management saying "here's your new QB, you're welcome" then I agree that it's an overreaction...

11
by zlionsfan :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 1:19pm

It's hard to know what to make of Mangini's progress in New York. In 2007, they had the toughest schedule in the league and a record to match. In 2008, they had the easiest schedule in the league (through 16 weeks) and a good record.

I guess he was supposed to win a division title or more this season? Every year, there are more owners/GMs expecting success than there are corresponding opportunities (you know, five expect to win the Super Bowl, twelve expect to play in it, and so on). They can't all make it ...

While Marinelli does seem like a nice guy, and by all accounts he accepted responsibility for 0-16, he still can't pick coordinators at all, and if he had any say over personnel decisions, well, that's hardly evidence to support him.

If Cable stays in Oakland, can we expect to see another Janikowski option play?

Lewis and Edwards will be gone. I don't think firing Phillips will fix anything unless the next coach cleans house.

I wonder if Shanahan or Del Rio will be on shaky ground?

14
by Richie :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 2:06pm

I assume that Shanahan has the Denver gig as long as he wants it.

12
by calliaume (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 1:55pm

I fully support the Mangini firing. The Jets were in a position where, at 8-3, they had completed the most difficult portion of their schedule and had mostly beatable left, yet finished 1-4 (and were fortunate to get that win due to questionable play calling by Buffalo). There's no excuse for not being able to fly across the country and beat teams much worse than yours (the Jets lost all four games in the Pacific time zone against San Diego, Oakland, San Francisco, and Seattle). My understanding was the team had very few injuries during these last five games -- and if Favre shoulder was bothering him, he should have spoken up right away, rather than continuing to play.

Also, I'd like to know who the primary force was in acquiring Favre -- Woody Johnson or Mike Tannenbaum. If it was Johnson, then he should be shouldering much of the blame for this team's finish. If it was Tannenbaum, he should also be on the firing line.

This team has the worst record of any AFC team that's been in the conference since the merger. I don't think this is an overreaction at all.

15
by sundown (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 2:14pm

Good point about their Pacific Time Zone troubles. But you lose me a bit with the talk about Favre. As you said, they started 8-3. Yet, because they finished poorly the Favre thing was such a disaster that anybody associated with it needs to be fired? That's a bit of an overreaction, don't you think? I'm weary of Favre, particularly after the recent reports that he didn't like being called out by Mangini for bad throws, but early in the season I thought it was clear the team responded well to him. Things didn't finish well, but if his shoulder doesn't get hurt, maybe they do. Seems like a calculated risk that very nearly paid off.

17
by Clark (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 2:24pm

Favre wants to play no matter what. He would never take himself out of a game, even if it was obvious his injuries were hurting the team. Mangini should have benched him after the interception return for a TD where he came off holding his arm. I don't know if Clemens could have won the game, but at least they would have had a chance.

16
by MJK :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 2:23pm

Someone wrote in to Patriots.com and asked the writers there if there was any chance that Mangini would come back to the Patriots as a coordinator now that he's been fired.

The response was something to the effect of "that bridge has not only been burned, but demolished by high explosives and the rubble bulldozed into the ground".

18
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 2:53pm

Given that the Jets gave Mangini a four-year contract would it have been harmful to have seen it out? I could understand ditching him if they'd gone 0-16 or been similarly hopeless; but not when you're a score away from a playoff team.

19
by Richie :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 3:05pm

But wouldn't they need to extend him before the 2009 season? Not too many coaches go into a season without a contract beyond that season. So they were at the point of either needing to extend him - or let him go. I'm still surprised they fired him.

35
by hector :: Tue, 12/30/2008 - 1:24am

Fully agree with Richie; when a coach enters his final season on the contract, it's time to fold or raise - but calling isn't an option.

The Jets finally realized in Week 17 that Leon Washington was their most dangerous player and might not break even if you use him consistently for four periods. His usage during the year was a long-running joke.

20
by Josh :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 3:18pm

The Bill Belichick coaching tree hasn't really produced all that many good pro coaches...

21
by Boston Dan :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 6:35pm

Ah yes, the anti-Belichick storyline for the 2009 off-season emerges. Belichick as the anti-Bill Walsh. Is Belichick a branch of the Tuna tree? Is Belichick his own tree in the same grove?

Some of the beat writers (well, what is left of them ) and columnists in Boston and around the country desperately wanted the Pats to fail colossally this season.

Conduct a search in Lexis-Nexus for the phrase "Belichick's record without Brady" in September 2008 and you'll see exactly what I'm referring to. They were getting ready to run wild with that one between January and August, but I think that your idea could work as a replacement.

22
by Tundrapaddy (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 6:45pm

'Take it easy, Francis.'

First off - I'd argue that Belichick has his own 'tree'. I have yet to see anyone calling him anything other than a brilliant coach. Per recollection, he won without Parcells, but Tuna never won without Belichick.

Having said that - look at the 'products' of the Belichick coaching system. Weis? Crennel? Mangini? Has any assistant coach under Belichick gone on to find success at the next level?

My question would be; to what extent is that a reflection on Belichick being too secretive (to the point he doesn't include his assistants and therefore limits their growth), and to what extent are these coaches just not put into situations to succeed (gotta give Crennel a break, Cleveland is not in the top half of the league in front office management; likewise, I think Mangini got a raw deal)?

23
by calliaume (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 7:19pm

Crennel's situation was partially out of his control (which the Browns seemed to recognize by letting Savage go), and Mangini may not have been the only one that deserved blame (as I noted earlier, Mike Tannenbaum may be due his share). But I don't think anyone can argue that Charlie Weis has set the world on fire at Notre Dame -- and Weis is, in effect, his own GM.

In any case, the scuttlebutt is Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels may be the next head coaching candidate -- but I don't see the Jets giving him a call.

25
by MJK :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 8:41pm

Don't forget that Nick Saban is essentially part of the Belichick tree.

I think one major reason why Belichick's disciples have failed is that they are all too arrogant (something Belichick himself is often accused of...but I don't think it's accurate to say he's arrogant in the way I'm about to elaborate on).

Every one of them came into town saying "I am the new genius in town, having learned from Master Yoda Belichick himself, and we're going to do things my way and only my way". Nick Saban immediately lost all credibility with his players (and most fans) when he did that. Mangini and Crennel wasted a great deal of time and front office capital trying to force their system, they system they had run in New England, on their new teams, rather than use their self-declared "genius" to work out a new system that would fit the player talent on hand (this, sadly, is a common mistake of many failed coaches). Look at how the Jets wasted John Abraham trying to force him to play in a 3-4 two-gap system. Or how Crennel had to basically throw out all of Cleveland's existing talent to try to build his system into place, delaying any potential Browns' resurgance at least a year. I don't follow Notre Dame so I don't know as much about Weis, but my impression is that he decided to try to install a pro-style offense at Notre Dame despite (1) facing college style defense, and (2) not having pro-calibur players like Tom Brady to play in it. Again, arrogance.

Belichick, on the other hand, is known for his flexibility. He adapts the gameplan weekly both to the players that he has available and healthy, and the team he faces. When the Patriots were hemmhoraging linebackers, they started playing a 4-3, albeit mainly a 2-gap style 4-3 (but I suspect that had to do with the fact that you can't take players that have played their entire career in one style of defense and flip them over on the fly).

The most successful coaches in the league are the ones that understand that "you go to war with the army you have", and rather than think your magical system will make everything better, you design whatever system you need to to get the most out of your players. The many unsuccessful coaches think they need to justify their salaries and jobs (and are reluctant to admit that coaching probably accounts for 20% of a team's success, not 95%), and so try to be different for the sake of putting their mark on the team. None of Belichick's protoges have come to realize this.

36
by hector :: Tue, 12/30/2008 - 1:26am

Piggybacking your final graph, the best coaches work players-to-scheme, while the misguided ones approach it the other way around.

37
by DEW (not verified) :: Tue, 12/30/2008 - 1:54am

A better question, in my mind, would be "what part of being a successful head coach involves training your coordinators to be successful head coaches for other teams?" He's paid to teach the New England Patriots to win football games, not to teach his staff how to go somewhere else and be a head coach. Possibly the simplest solution to the whole "Belichek tree" issue is that Belichek picks people who make good coordinators--the Norv Turners, Cam Camerons, and Wade Phillipses of the world--rather than good head coaches to BE his coordinators.

26
by andy (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 9:04pm

Does anyone see a connection between the extreme ineptitude of the Lions franchise (yes, the players aren't great, but who picked the players?) management/owners and the extreme ineptitude of the Ford Motor company? Ford is up in Washington DC asking for a bailout because they suck so much and keep on making gas-guzzlers when everyone wants and needs gas-sippers/hybrids, and the Lions have just gone 0-16. Anyone else see a connection?

30
by Scott P. (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 9:37pm

Ford is by far the best-run of the Big Three, so no.

32
by zlionsfan :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 11:22pm

Right idea, slight change in details ... actually, Ford wasn't asking for a bailout. They just wanted to know if it would be there if they needed it later.

Aside from that, yes, Mr. Ford is one of the few NFL owners who doesn't seem to show that he can run any business, much less an NFL team.

I'm not sure what Weis' problems are at Notre Dame. Recruiting shouldn't really be that much of a problem, even with their recent record ... I also don't watch enough of their games to know how well or poorly the system is working, but they've certainly been underwhelming the last couple of years, and it's not like he's got a boatload of Willingham recruits on whom he can pin the blame.

So I see the Lions are talking to guys like Garrett and Schwartz (Jim, if you are reading this - you do read some FO, right? - DO NOT TAKE THE JOB UNLESS THEY CLEAN OUT THE FRONT OFFICE FIRST), that's good. Keeping Lewand and Mayhew, um ... I basically assume that if Ford wants to keep them around, they can't be that good.

27
by Andy (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 9:08pm

belichick is the best coach in football right now - but if one tries watching some documentaries on the 49ers and Bill Walsh's coaching style and method and way of running a franchise, one is reminded of belichick - then realizes "hey! maybe it's not walsh that's like belichick but belichick that's like walsh!" and then if one does some more research one finds that belichick sees walsh's book on team-building as his bible. as a 49ers fan i thought i'd like to remind eveyrone of that hehehe!

28
by Andy (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 9:12pm

it's true that parccells hasn't won w/o belichick, but i think that he's still pretty great - after all, even though his teams after the giants never got to the super bowl, his teams are always in the playoffs within a year or two - and that's something special. it's just that i guess belichick is a little more special. but parcells has serious skills, no one should ever deny that or try to lessen his accomplishments by sayhing 'he never won the big one w/o belichick.'

29
by cool (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 9:34pm

I geuss it turn out mangini is not a Manginieus and was just ovverated and overcofident.
I do think there are definent similariteis beetween 06jets and 08 dolphins both are very creative and tricky the wildcat is one example and i think the league will catch up to a lot of what they do and they will have a 7to8 win season nbext year before springin back up into the 10 to 11 win catagorie the year after once they have aqcuired enougth talent.

31
by Bromance (not verified) :: Mon, 12/29/2008 - 10:53pm

Is cool the new Raiderjoe?

38
by Bobman :: Tue, 12/30/2008 - 4:49am

Let me just put it this way: 18 years ago was Raiderjoe's senior prom. He had a hot date, but aside from a sixer of Sierra Nevada, he went "unprepared" shall we say. The rest is history. Grammar and typing are in the genes.

39
by dryheat (not verified) :: Tue, 12/30/2008 - 1:03pm

Let me see, the Jets:

1) pick up every quality free agent on the market (Faneca, Woody, Jenkins, Pace, Favre)

2) get career years from Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, Jerricho Cotchery, great years from Jenkins and Revis

3) benefit from having their divisional rivals losing their MVP quarterback week one

4) get remarkable injury luck this year

And we end up with a 6th overall pick who doesn't step onto the field, blowing a commanding divisional lead, losing to one, three, and four-win teams, and ultimately getting beat out of a playoff spot by the team led by the quarterback that couldn't be run out of town fast enough, who incidently had a better season than his replacement.

According to my Jets-fans acquaintances, Mangini makes absolutely zero adjustments at the half. This is Jets-fan talk around week 11, not week 17.

Combine that with a lack of HC credentials and only one season of co-ordinator credentials heading into the job, and yeah, I think a HC firing is about right. He was set up for success and failed miserably.

40
by Chris (not verified) :: Tue, 12/30/2008 - 4:15pm

Back to Bellicheck,

I found it interesting in the Pats game how the color guy ( maybe it was Rich Gannon) talked about Bellicheck's strategies playing in those high wind conditions. I guess Gannon talked with him before and BB was talking about " taking shots" early in the 2nd half of games when the other teams fans are quiet and still at the consession stands. The offense operates in quieter conditions and Cassell/Brady could audible in quieter conditions than say a 3rd and long very early or late in the game when the fans are real loud. I love hearing about these little tips coaches use to gain even the smallest advantages.

41
by roguerouge :: Fri, 01/02/2009 - 4:21am

Well, the college football games were filled with quotes from Thomas Jones and another unnamed Jet throwing Favre under the bus and defending Mangini. FWIW.

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