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18 Nov 2008
Packers' Offensive-Minded Defense
Nowhere in this article about the Packers' defense scoring lots of touchdowns does it wonder whether it's actually a skill as opposed to, you know, a fluke. God knows the Elias Sports Bureau isn't going to tell the author.
The Packers have seven touchdowns in ten games. It's a good figure -- only one team since 2001 has had more than seven touchdowns in an entire season. It was the 2007 Minnesota Vikings.
This year? Through ten games, those Vikings have exactly two defensive touchdowns: A fumble recovery and a blocked kick, both returned by Antoine Winfield for touchdowns. (They also have two safeties, although that's beyond the interest of the article.)
It's not an isolated trend. The league leaders one year simply don't do well the next. The '01 Dolphins had six defensive touchdowns in 2001, one the next year. Tampa had five in 2002 and three in 2003. New England and St. Louis each had six in 2003; they had four and three, respectively, the year after. Baltimore had seven in 2004 and three the next year. San Francisco had five in 2005 and one in 2006. Baltimore again took the lead with six in 2006; they had one in 2007.
It's simply not a consistent skill, at least on a team-wide basis.
11 comments, Last at 19 Nov 2008, 11:33am by zlionsfan
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Comments
Re: Packers' Offensive-Minded Defense
There's a PFP 09 article brewing.....
Defensive TDs need to be analyzed in context: opponent; game situation (Jason Hunter's fumble recovery came on 4th-and-10 in the 4th quarter, the Bears trailing by 24); DVOA.
Green Bay has 16 picks -- all by defensive backs -- and six pick-sixes. Is that an unusual proportion: 38%? Are DBs more likely to score? They're quicker, but they may have further to go.
As for the season-to-season stats: is there a noticeably different correlation between defensive TDs and, say, total takeaways?
One thing is certain: the Packers have blocked well on returns.
Re: Packers' Offensive-Minded Defense
This just in:
GB DEf also leads the league in Standard Wins Above General Game Efficiency Ratio.
Re: GB Def S.W.A.G.G.E.R.
You rock!
Can we really have a stat like this? :)
Re: Packers' Offensive-Minded Defense
There is definitely some type of skill or something involved. Even beyond this year I believe GB is #2 in the NFL over the last 4? or so years in DEF/SPEC TEAMS TDS. #1 is Chicago which gets a huge boost from Hester the last few years. (I'm sure they will show this stat next week during the NO/GB game)
Logically I would expect teams that play press coverage on a consistent basis like GB does to have more defensive tds as a result of the close, aggressive coverage. I'd also expect GB to get burned for more big plays too. Similarly I wouldn't be surprised to see teams playing the Tampa 2 or Bend but don't break defenses to be the polar opposites (obviously other factors exist such as luck or a tampa team having an amazing d line or whatever)
Re: Packers' Offensive-Minded Defense
Here I would expect Tampa 2 defenses to do well. Since they can just sit in their zones ready to return, especially corners covering the flat.
Re: Packers' Offensive-Minded Defense
MIN is pretty high up there too, so perhaps it is simply playing in a division where there are 3 bad QBs and one "gunslinger" for the past few years.
Re: Packers' Offensive-Minded Defense
Maybe it's cause they're just having fun out there.....
Re: Packers' Offensive-Minded Defense
You're confused. The fun up and left to try its chances in the big city...
Re: Packers' Offensive-Minded Defense
I cannot believe that non-offensive TD's would NOT be tied to number of opportunities. Aaron, please run the numbers.
I'll even help; punt returns + kick returns (minus squibbed kicks) + turnover RETURNS divided by TD's scored. (The turnover RETURNS number is calculated by eliminating any fumbles recovered in the scrum, INT's where the defensive player is down by contact or steps out of bounds, etc.--I think total turnovers forced could distort the number we are looking for. At the same time, teams with a higher number of turnovers forced will probably have a higher number of turnover returns as well.)
I'll also admit that Mr. Barnwell is correct--it is not a repeatable skill as a TEAM--but I think it IS a skill regarding individual players. No one disputes the advantage of having a Deion Sanders, Devin Hester, Joshua Cribbs, Reggie Bush, or Dante Hall (Chiefs version) back there to return a kick (or in Prime Time's case, a turnover). Having stated this, I will admit that there can be a matchup advantage as the year goes on, when a team that stinks at covering punts/kicks faces a team that is above average returning them (according to DVOA, of course.)
Or maybe the Fins front office saw the skills of a top-notch WR when they scouted Ted Ginn Jr. (:p)
Re: Packers' Offensive-Minded Defense
I think he's talking about defense TDs, excluding special teams TDs.
Re: Packers' Offensive-Minded Defense
Agreed ... those really are two completely different areas anyway. Certainly an interception return can be comparable to a punt return in some cases, or to a kickoff return in other cases, but there are a number of factors that are beyond the defense's ability to control.
Offensive formation and playcalling, for example. Throwing an interception on an out route from an empty formation seems more likely to lead to a touchdown than throwing it from a two-back formation.
Offensive indifference. You know, who cares because we just blew a lead at home and we suck anyway. (It's possible that either 14% or 29% of the Packers' defensive touchdowns were scored this way.)
Also, Shaun Rogers.
Fumble returns, well ... there isn't much to quantify there. I suppose you could try to measure the ability to scoop a ball, but I can't see getting enough data from game play to do so accurately.
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