Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

30 Oct 2008

Texas: QB Mecca

A College XP of sorts...

It's not rocket science to realize just how many schools get a large percentage of their talent from Texas, but the Dallas Morning News has a nice article about just how many teams currently have star quarterbacks from the Lone Star State. Colt McCoy, Graham Harrell, Matt Stafford, Chase Daniel, Todd Reesing, Jarrett Lee, Brian Johnson...in all, 21 FBS starters and six of the top nine QBs on the Total Offense list are from Texas.

Posted by: Bill Connelly on 30 Oct 2008

13 comments, Last at 31 Oct 2008, 10:16pm by WJD

Comments

1
by Dean (not verified) :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 12:58pm

Interesting article. I'm wondering, though, if any of these guys really grade out all that highly as pro prospects. I think McCoy and Harrell have the Lewin Forecast numbers, but that only matters if they're first day prospects, and I'd be surprised if they were regarded as such.

2
by Richard :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 1:27pm

From their list, I'm pretty sure Stafford and McCoy are considered at least borderline first round talent.

4
by ChrisH :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 3:36pm

Stafford continually grades out as a Top 5 pick if he were to turn pro after this year by most people. McCoy has steadily moved up in rankings this year, but Stafford is a lock to go in the first round at this point.

10
by Dean (not verified) :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 4:34pm

If Stafford comes out, and if he grades out as a first rounder (people said the same thing about Andre Woodson and Brian Brohm a year ago), Lewin doesn't like him much.

3
by superbears (not verified) :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 2:20pm

I went and saw Garrett Gilbert (Lake Travis) this year, he looks to be the real deal and is going to Texas next year.

5
by JMO (not verified) :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 3:42pm

Stafford is considered first overall standard. Has the tools and has shown progression each year in a pro style offense.

Not sure about the others. They all seem to play in wacky systems.

This year Garrett looks like a player although personally I'm surprised that Texas didn't push hard to get LSU commit russell Shepherd. Apparently they didn't offer him as QB which seems like a mistake. Hes getting Pryor like buzz already, although hes supposed to be farther along as a passer(at that stage) but not as big.

6
by Becephalus :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 5:03pm

I am not sure this isn't completely explained by the number of players coming from Texas generally, the favorable passing climate, and comparatively greater "whiteness" (which seems to mean more QBs FBs etc. and fewer other positions).

Would be interesting to look at.

The Wire should win the Nobel prize for literature.

7
by enderwiggins (not verified) :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 1:01am

I really am not sure where the issue of race came into this post but being from Texas I can assure you we have plenty of non-white quarterbacks playing high school ball, I think the reason you find so many quarterbacks from Texas might primarily be due to the fact most of our teams run the spread nowdays. Watch Texas Tech play Texas this weekend and you will see the system most high school teams play. Also if Mike Leach ever moves to a larger school you will see a lot of college teams go to the spread offense

8
by Becephalus :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 1:46am

It came in because Texas has a lower african american % of players compared to other football factories like south florida, and qbs traditionally are more often white than other players. It is simply the facts of the matter (and possibly regrettable they are so), and just because we find it uncomfortable to talk about race in this country doesn't mean the greater % of players being white might lead to a greater % of those players playing at predominately white positions at the college level.

I didn't think it was the deciding or even a large factor, but I was just brainstorming different demographic reasons texas might be different.

The Wire should win the Nobel prize for literature.

11
by D Jones :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 4:45pm

Where does the idea that Texas has a lower % of black players than other places come from? I mean Texas is 11.5% black compared to 14.3% black for Florida (2000 census) and compared to 12.3% for the entire nation, so that might make a little bit of sense, but it's only a percent or two...Texas still has more total black folks than Florida.

And the idea that it is somehow responsible for there being more quarterbacks from Texas seems pretty silly to me. I mean, there are only a couple of QBs per high school team, right? Not like Texas has a higher percentage of QBs compared to other players than other states...if, as you claim, white kids play QB anyway, then the difference between 11.5% and 14.3% shouldn't make a difference, plenty of white kids to play QB in both cases.

I think it is probably just random distribution statistics stuff, i.e. if you wait long enough, some other large football state will have a bunch of Div 1 QBs.

I'm sure that an analysis of Div 1 teams in general would find that there were a lot of players from Texas and FL starting on squads all over the country. Probably in direct proportion to their states percentage of the football playing states' population.

9
by AndyH (not verified) :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 1:50pm

Don't forget, Rhet Bohmar (sp?) was producing big time for Oklahoma before his off-field troubles ($$) caught up with him.

12
by Unverified Telamon (not verified) :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 5:34pm

*Insert joke about there being nothing to do in Texas but play football HERE*

PS. I really like the spam security words on the new site. They're like little snippits of ee cummings poetry.

13
by WJD (not verified) :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 10:16pm

Many coaches attribute the recent surge of QBs coming out of Texas to the opportunities high school passers now have to hone their skills over the summer in the relatively new statewide 7-on-7 competitions.

Texas A&M sophomore Jerrod Johnson is another Texas QB that is really coming on.