Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

22 Aug 2008

What's Next for Merriman?

A growing story in San Diego: Shawne Merriman is considering his options when it comes to surgery to repair what he says is a torn PCL in his left knee. He has already seen Dr. James Andrews, the renowned expert on knee injuries for NFL players, and more information is being gathered. At this point, it could be anything from playing through it in 2008, to a minor procedure, to season-ending surgery.

There also appears to be increasing tension between Merriman and the Chargers, at least according to the linked article by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, regarding Merriman's increasing off-field business and media concerns. The former issue could leave the latter a moot point if Merriman's out for the year, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Posted by: Doug Farrar on 22 Aug 2008

41 comments, Last at 27 Aug 2008, 2:43am by Richard

Comments

1
by Temo (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 11:04am

[Obligatory he got injured because he's because of the roids comment]

2
by Aaron (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 11:07am

I hope his leg falls off.

It really bothers me when a high profile players gets busted for breaking the rules, and commentators gloss over it and instead focus on how "great" he is. It sends the wrong message, that performance enhancing drugs are okay as long as they make you REALLY good instead of just barely able to make a team. Those guys get killed in the media.

3
by Chris Owen (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 11:25am

I wonder whether this injury goes back to the Titans game, when Mawae and Stewart were fined for going after Merriman after the whistle. I had that game on the DVR at the time, but there was no replay during the broadcast that showed the hit in question.

4
by James, London (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 11:34am

Comeuppance for the juice?

5
by Dev (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 11:43am

My favorite moment last season was when Merriman blitzed against the Jags and Maurice Jones-Drew knocked Merriman back on his ass.

6
by mawbrew (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 12:02pm

If Merriman concludes he's going to need the reconstructive surgery at some point anyway, it's likely he'll do it sooner rather than later. If he get's surgery now, he'll have 2009 (the last year of his deal) to demonstrate that he's fully recovered. If he has to sit out 2009, teams will have to be nervous about signing him to a big contract.

7
by The Hypno-Toad (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 12:11pm

Mrrrgh... This puts my integrity as a sports fan to the test. On the one hand, I never, ever want someone to be seriously hurt. On the other hand, he's a bit of a cheater, and the Chargers have been coming off as total douchebags recently, so maybe he/they deserve it... And even though his presence is pretty much irrelevant to the outcome of the Broncos' games against the Chargers (the Chargers really should win with or without him) I can't say that I'm too excited about the prospect of him going after Cutler with just a first year starter at OT in his way. I'll err on the side of decency and hope that it's just lingering soreness and that there's no structural damage and that he'll be fine.

8
by Boesy (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 12:15pm

While the injuries may not be identical, Adrian Peterson (Vikings Edition) tore his PCL against the Packers, missed two games, and returned for the remainder of the year in a brace. Hard to imagine Merriman needing 'reconstructive' surgery unless there is more damage in the knee.

9
by max (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 1:04pm

Perhaps Dr. Andrews will perform a "lights out" dance after sacking that busted PCL. No love lost for Merriman for me, I hope the roids have rotted all of his ligaments.

10
by Kneel Before Zod! (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 1:56pm

S. Merriman and P. Manning both with mysterious and likely serious injurys.

Brady hasn't played and Garard got hurt.

Could be a surprisingly wide open AFC if this keeps up.

11
by Nathan (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 2:30pm

RE:10
When did Garrard get hurt?

Also RE:2
Completely agree. Just because the retired Jock du jour likes the guys pass rush is no reason to simply gloss over the fact that the player has committed something that an Olympic athlete (apologies for waving the flag and five circles in everyone's face) can almost never live down.

12
by bowman (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 3:31pm

10. I don't see any news about Garard being hurt, and I don't even think Raiderjoe thinks he's essential to the Raiders this year. (I mean, who needs a washedup DL?)

13
by bowman (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 3:32pm

Sorry, I meant Gerard (Warren)

14
by AndyB (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 5:19pm

I believe it was Klosterman who noted that Merriman is both faster than Jerry Rice and bigger than Anthony Munoz.

That ain't natural. What goes up must come down. And hard.

15
by Tom (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 7:00pm

Merriman deserves whatever happens to him because he's the only player in the NFL on steroids! Every other 265 lb linebacker with 4.6 speed is totally natural. Plus lineman are all 330 lbs now because of advances in weightlifting.

16
by kcpike11 (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 8:19pm

Every single one of you would be singing a different tune if Merriman was on your team And Kevin Acee ain't exactly Nostradamus. The guy is the laughing stock of San Diego sports media.

17
by Alex51 (not verified) :: Fri, 08/22/2008 - 10:32pm

You know, I think it might be worth noting that, as of April 2007, Merriman has been tested 20 times by the NFL, and the results were negative 19 times. That, along with the fact that he continued to perform at a high level this year, leads me to believe that he probably wasn't even taking steroids. I mean, false positives happen, especially when you're testing 2,000 players several times every year. And since every other test before and after the one in question came out negative, I have little trouble believing Merriman's claim that a tainted supplement may have caused the positive test (which would still reflect poorly on Merriman), or that it was just a plain old false positive.

In any case, there's a standard penalty in the NFL for a first time steroid offender, and Merriman's already served it. Merriman claims he isn't taking steroids, and unless he tests positive again, I'm willing to believe that he either never took steroids, or that he's stopped taking them. I just don't get why people find it so difficult to forgive the guy*. I mean, obviously, steroid abuse is very bad, and hurts the integrity of the sport, but I don't see why people treat it like such an unforgivable sin.

I guess I'm just a really big believer in second chances. For that matter, third, fourth, and fifth chances, too. Hell, tenth, twentieth chances. I don't mind, as long as they get it eventually. Then again, I'm a Bengals fan, and if not for second chances, half of the team's players would be out of the league by now. So maybe I'm a little overly forgiving about this stuff.

*Is it the dance? It's the dance, isn't it? Yeah, I can see that being annoying.

18
by Bobman (not verified) :: Sat, 08/23/2008 - 12:09am

14 would that be taller than munoz? I can't imagine he's heavier.....

15 well said!

I have no excess of love for Merriman, hell--no surplus like for him either, but with all the testing the NFL has done, I feel safe assuming he's been clean since his initial f-up. Feel free to keep bashing him, because I love it and it makes me feel better about my team, but he's probably in the clear.

(And I am a guy who hates Julius Peppers for being suspended 4 games his rookie year for the same issue, having FEWER sacks than Freeney in more starts, and still winning DROY. That's a crime. I suppose Freeney's bigger contract is payback. I'd rather thave the money than the trophy.)

19
by Neoplatonist Bolthead (not verified) :: Sat, 08/23/2008 - 6:37am

I hope he makes a full recovery (love the hate he gets). But the reality is that Jyles Tucker and Marques Harris are almost as good. That's one deep OLB squad!

20
by Alex51 (not verified) :: Sat, 08/23/2008 - 8:53am

14 would that be taller than munoz? I can’t imagine he’s heavier…

And he's nowhere near as fast as Jerry Rice, either (unless you mean Rice now, at 45 years old). That's pure hyperbole. I guess the point is, he's very big, and very fast, and people think that he must have gotten that way by using steroids.

I'm a bit skeptical. Abilities like his depend heavily on genetics. Some people could work out every day, take any supplements (legal or otherwise) they want, and still never be as fast and strong as even an average NFL LB. And some people could be that strong and fast without a whole lot of effort.

21
by AndyB (not verified) :: Sat, 08/23/2008 - 12:04pm

#20:

You're right...kinda. Rice ran a 4.5 40; Shawne a 4.6. Not faster than Rice, but pretty damn close if you ask me.

As for Munoz, he played at 6-6, 278. Merriman is 6-4, 272.

I'll never quote Chuck Klosterman again without fact-checking!

22
by Temo (not verified) :: Sat, 08/23/2008 - 12:24pm

15. So what? We'll just excuse his steriod test then, because we know everyone does it? You get caught, you should take flack for it.

16. You're damn right I'd be protecting my favorite players. But wait... that's called "bias". And there are many more fans of 31 other teams who would completely go to town, as they should.

17. In January of 2007, mere months before he tested positive, the NFL revamped their drug testing policies. Quoting from ESPN article: "After four months of sometimes intense negotiations, the league and union announced Wednesday more extensive testing for performance-enhancing drugs" (link in name)

23
by Temo (not verified) :: Sat, 08/23/2008 - 12:29pm

Oops, just realized that article WAS from 2007, not 2006 like I thought. Too sleepy =/

I consider myself chastised and willing to admit that the false positive could have come from a tainted supplement, though I still deny it could have been a false positive considering the carefulness of the test.

24
by The Hypno-Toad (not verified) :: Sat, 08/23/2008 - 1:52pm

17 - Yeah, actually, part of it is the dance. And part of it is that LdT got all butt-hurt about someone mocking Merriman's ridiculous dance, like it's some sort of national treasure that must be protected. Some of it is that he tested positive for banned substances. But for the most part (for me anyway) it's that jealousy-hate that comes from having a dominant player in your division, and I have no problem admitting that. Philip Rivers, however, I just flat-out hate for being a total chad douchebag.

25
by Raiderjoe (not verified) :: Sat, 08/23/2008 - 4:16pm

this injury cold make Raiders win the division now. Was going to be close battle between Chagers and Raiders anyway but now with Chargers best def player out of lineup Raiders have the edge.
merriman is steorid jerk and if play again will be embarrssed by Daren McFadde n

26
by Alex51 (not verified) :: Sat, 08/23/2008 - 4:17pm

I still deny it could have been a false positive considering the carefulness of the test.

It doesn't matter how careful the test is, if you're doing 10,000+ tests a year, you're going to have false positives. Especially considering that the substances being tested for are often the same ones that occur in the body naturally.

IIRC, a test is deemed "positive" if the level of the substance in question is sufficiently high (for some tests, anyway). But the trouble is, the baselines for each individual are somewhat different, and they flucuate to some extent naturally. So it could have been that his natural level of (whatever it was) was higher than normal, and it went slightly over the positive/negative threshold for a short time. They wouldn't have had to screw up the test at all for it to be a false positive.

27
by Scott C. (not verified) :: Sat, 08/23/2008 - 9:17pm

Merriman is the best OLB on the Chargers, but Jyles Tucker has been very impressive and will fill in well at least on the pass rush side of things. If you follow this site you would know that Phillips is nearly as good as Merriman.

Cotrell had a special personnel package in training cap that had:
Merriman, Tucker, Phillips as pass rush OLBs, Castillo and Igor as DL, and only one ILB -- Cooper I think. This was a nickel and a pretty obvious 3rd and long package. I guess that is probably out the window if Merriman is out with an injury, if you go overboard with DE/OLB pass rush hybrids you only do it if they're really good pass rushers to disguise who is rushing.

Unfortunately for my Chargers, I'm more worried about their ability to get teams into third and long and stop the run game. Hopefully they remember how to tackle and take good angles again... they were shedding blocks but out of position and failing to tackle well against inside runs lately.

----------------

Oh, great... the roids comments again.

Fact #1 he did not test positive during the season. He is no more likely to have played a game on rods than any other player and probably less so since he gets tested more often. His positive test was at the start of training camp that year and he has been heavily tested since with no other positive tests. In particular, he was tested again before being notified of the results of the first test and that one was negative as well.

Fact #2 guys who go off roids, in particular the type like nandrolone, lose weight FAST. He didn't lose weight.

Fact #3 the nandrolone test doesn't detect nandrolone, it detects elevated levels of a chemical byproduct of its use that is in every one of us naturally. Nandrolone use is only one way to get elevated levels of that byproduct. Though its the most likely.

Make your own conclusions on off season stuff, ability to get around the drug test system, or whatever but don't lose sight of the facts. If he is/was using then anyone else could be too (if you don't believe in the testing system). If he is/was then he must have switched to something else quick to avoid weight loss.

As far as I can see, if you believe that the testing system works, then its pretty clear he wasn't using. If you believe it doesn't work and masking use is easy, then he is one of many likely users.

28
by Scott C. (not verified) :: Sat, 08/23/2008 - 9:27pm

Hey Hypno-Toad, dont' like Rivers because he got into a little argument with Cutler? Did you know Cutler yelled at Rivers FIRST with profanity and grabbed his crotch and gestured at Rivers?

Probably not, the media made a lot more out of the limited angles of the whole thing. If it was the other way around (tv camera angle) then Cutler would be the bad guy. Honestly, I don't care what either did, they can talk trash all they want. If Favre does it, he's "just having fun out there" and he has been involved in quite a few little on-field fits, including one with a middle finger on prominent display.

As for Rivers yelling back at a drunken fan with "I'll be back" and "Scoreboard", its probalby not the wisest thing. In fact, its pretty damn dumb. And according to some sources the fan in question was drunk and calling his wife a dirty *#&$*#& #$*@&.
Responding at all is dumb, but responding with non-profanity and simple things like "Thank You" does not make one a douchebag. I don't get you Rivers haters at all, it seems totally lame and out of context.

The three things above are what I have heard he said to fans. The on-field stuff I know less of -- but I have heard a few of those.
Everything he has ever said in these contexts could be repeated to a kintergarden class and it wouldn't offend anybody.

29
by Bryan Lambert (not verified) :: Sun, 08/24/2008 - 1:30am

Speaking of Merriman, it would be interesting to look back the last 5 or 10 years and look at all the players that have been suspended by the NFL for banned substances and/or steroids and/or drug policy(maybe tossing in those also suspended for conduct issues, ala Tank Johnson, Pac man Jones, Michael Vick - any player in Cincinitti)...

Off the top of my head, I can think of:
Shawne Merriman - steroids
Brentson Buckner - "dietary substance"
Lew Bush - ephedrine and Ma Huang.
Julius Peppers - Ephedra
Odell Thurman - violation of drug policy
Ray Edwards - steroids
Kenny Peterson - steroids
Ryan Tucker - steroids
John Welbourn - steroids
Ricky Williams - violation ofdrug policy

though not a player - Dr James Shortt (Dr. Steroid)

It may make an really interesting list - certainly steroids, performance enhancing drugs and just plain illegal drugs affect more then just any one player in the NFL (like Merriman) and they many times come up with the lamest excuses (remember Peppers NyQual "explaination" at first)...

30
by The McNabb Bowl Game Anomaly (aka SJM) (not verified) :: Sun, 08/24/2008 - 1:53am

I believe the NFL avoids false positives by taking 2 samples and, if one is positive, testing the other to see if it is also positive. I don't know if the 2 samples are taken at the same time. Even if the samples are taken separately, this doesn't eliminate the possibility of a false positive because no test is perfect, but it makes the likelihood quite small.

On the other hand, the push to increase testing has inevitably resulted in more false positives, unless they reduced the threshold for a positive test at the same time as they increased the testing. It's a statistical reality.

I don't think it's accurate that steroid muscles disappear fast. The cheaters bulk up in the off-season, and that bulk gradually declines as they play (just like non-juicing players). If anyone uses steroids mid-season it's probably to heal injuries. However, it's true that a football player could not possibly benefit from steroids more than 1 season after he stops taking them.

31
by Pat (not verified) :: Sun, 08/24/2008 - 6:39am

I believe the NFL avoids false positives by taking 2 samples and, if one is positive, testing the other to see if it is also positive.

That's not the kind of false positive that's being talked about here. Merriman claimed that a supplement he was taking had a substance he didn't know was banned in it. We don't necessarily know what that substance was - it may have been a steroid, it may have been something which trips the tests for steroids.

I don’t think it’s accurate that steroid muscles disappear fast.

No, but you need to be using steroids for a while for them to have a serious benefit. One offseason might not be enough time. A lot of the guys who get caught using steroids later admit they were using them just to recover from an injury faster, which makes sense - using them to build up muscles takes a lot more time, and you're a lot more likely to get caught. Injury recovery is short, and you've got a decent hope of avoiding detection.

What's really funny about that is that that might be a legitimate medical use for steroids, if you think about it.

32
by Quentin (not verified) :: Sun, 08/24/2008 - 8:32am

I mean, obviously, steroid abuse is very bad, and hurts the integrity of the sport, but I don’t see why people treat it like such an unforgivable sin.

Whether or not it's fair to the individual player, I think this type of unforgiving bashing good for the sport. I'm usually not one for excessive negativity, but I think the fact that being caught produces a cloud that will hang over you for the rest of your career serves as a pretty decent deterrent to other potential cheats.

33
by lionsbob (not verified) :: Sun, 08/24/2008 - 11:49am

#29
Shaun Rogers was also suspended for as I recall a banned dietary substance as well.

34
by The Hypno-Toad (not verified) :: Sun, 08/24/2008 - 2:00pm

28 - I freely admit that I didn't have the context on those events, only what was shown on tv. And that coupled with my natural inclination to dislike successful, non-bronco players within the AFC West was enough. I'll try to be more fair to him in the future, but even before those things happened, he kind of rubbed me the wrong way, he has kind of a vaguely "arrogant fratboy" vibe to him that reminds me a lot of Brian Griese when he was in Denver. I know there's probably no basis for that impression, but sometimes it's hard to shake off an impression like that, especially when it's someone that you'll never actually meet.

35
by mikeabbott (not verified) :: Sun, 08/24/2008 - 2:55pm

Lateral and Posterier Ligaments.

Two years left on Rookie contract.

Get it repaired.

Other tendons are being stretched and possibly damaged if you play.

If your knee blows up your rookie contract is your last.

Good for team = Play , we cut you if it blows up. If it doesn't then you will be just like any other player in the league 2 years from now when you are negotiating with every team.
And your knee makes every other team offer you a lowball contract like we will.

Good for Player = get it fixed and rehab for monster last year of contract.

36
by Nate (not verified) :: Sun, 08/24/2008 - 4:21pm

31 - I don't think you know much about steroids. Measurable increases in muscle mass are evident in the first few days of a cycle, and measurable increases in strength are evident as early as the third week of a cycle. 6-10 weeks cycles are totally acceptable, and an offseason is plenty of time. In fact, using steroids an entire offseason is not recommended, as extended use may permanently impair the body's hormone production.

37
by Scott C. (not verified) :: Sun, 08/24/2008 - 8:40pm

My cousin is a gym rat that focuses almost entirely on upper body work. He began taking over the counter suppliments from GNC and gained 15 pounds of muscle pretty quick (10 weeks). For a guy who is about 6'1" and not naturally built very big, that is a lot. Especially since it was all upper body and he had been working hard in the gym for a long time before that.

However, he was moody and volatile, and his girlfriend and others noticed this rather obviously. He stopped taking the suppliments, and the emotional moodiness went away rather quickly, and while still spending 4 days a week in the gym proceeded to lose 20 pounds in a couple months -- below the level before the pills.

Its pretty obvious that whatever was in those pills was steroid like, steroid precursors, or something else that affects hormone levels. The change was dramatic on both sides. He has since gained 15 lbs of the muscle mass back without them, but it has taken a couple years -- and he is on other suppliments (that don't make him moody).

Sure, this is all an anecdotal story that doesn't prove anything about NFL players. After all, I'm sure that half the ingredients of the supplements my cousin took are banned NFL substances that can be detected easily. But performance enhancers are everywhere, and they can have a huge impact on the body.
Nandrolone, is a typical steroid from what I can gather -- not in favor for much other than medical use because its effects are very strong and detectable. It is also in the class of steroids that quickly cause your body to stop producing its own hormones properly which is what leads to rapid weight loss when one stops doping. That only happens if it is used long enough to put your body off balance, however -- which differs per steroid and doping regimen.

38
by Rich Conley (not verified) :: Sun, 08/24/2008 - 8:40pm

"Fact #1 he did not test positive during the season. He is no more likely to have played a game on rods than any other player and probably less so since he gets tested more often"

You don't need to take roids the day of a game to see an advantage. Its not like the muscle disapears if you don't take your shot one day.

39
by panthersnbraves (not verified) :: Mon, 08/25/2008 - 11:55am

#16

I'm not that blantant a homer, am I? I mean if Peppers' suspension was an honest mistake and Merriman was a cheater, that's fair right? {removing tongue from cheek}

OK. I'll admit it. I'm hoping Merriman just needs 2 1/2 weeks of rest - say 2 days after the Panthers/Chargers game.

40
by The Hypno-Toad (not verified) :: Mon, 08/25/2008 - 3:05pm

Ok, unfortunately, this is unlikely to be seen by anyone, now that this story has dropped off the front page, but I'm going to say something nice about Rivers (Even though I still find him unpleasant in some mysterious way). The way he stepped up and played through that injury in the playoffs last year showed a lot of heart and toughness, and a commitment to his team which I find admirable. I think a fan of any team would be thrilled to have a qb with that level of desire to win, and all too few qb's actually seem to have it. That said, I really wish guys like him and Cutler, etc... could learn to shut the hell up and let their play speak for them. Does anyone really think that screaming at opposing players from opposite sidelines (especially from either side of that Christmas Eve ass-whupping the Chargers laid on the Broncos) has any sort of value? If you're on the Broncos' end of it, getting crushed, just shut up because you obviously can't back up your talk. If you're on the Chargers' side of it, doing the crushing, just shut up because you've said all you needed to while you were on the field.

41
by Richard (not verified) :: Wed, 08/27/2008 - 2:43am

40: Part of that, though, is just how Philip plays. They say he does it during practice.

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