Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

27 May 2008

Young Admits to Contemplating Retirement After Rookie Season

Remember shortly before the 2006 draft when everyone assumed that the Titans would take Matt Leinart because, well, because the entire coaching staff was made up of ex-USC guys who all wanted to take Matt Leinart? Instead, then general manager Floyd Reese opted for Vince Young on the strength of the Texas star's upside. Well, Reese is gone now, and Jeff Fisher and company can't feel great about their situation after Young publicly revealed that he considered retirement after his rookie season. On the one hand, it's nice to see a player willing to be open about the pressures of adjusting to NFL life. On the other hand, Young has already gotten one offensive coordinator fired, and you have to think that his level of commitment to the pro game will be a source of concern from here on out.

Posted by: Sean McCormick on 27 May 2008

61 comments, Last at 30 May 2008, 9:15am by Ben

Comments

1
by ReburnOfTheJedi (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 2:03pm

That 06 draft is pretty interesting at the top...who would've thought that Mario Williams would turn out to be the correct pick at number one?

2
by ReburnOfTheJedi (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 2:04pm

Oh boy oh boy covert firsty oh boy!!

3
by null_void (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 2:11pm

Imagine if Young had waited on his rookie retirement until after making the cover of Madden 08...how would that be for a Madden curse fulfillment?

4
by Uncle Rico Lives! (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 2:30pm

Man, if I could only go back to 1985, I'd have won the state championship for sure. Don't sweat it Vince, much like I taught you your throwing style, I'll teach you how to revel in the theoretical glory of the past, so you can ignore the incompetent present you have set for yourself. Oh, and be sure and buy some tupperware before you go.

5
by Andy (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 2:40pm

#1, I still think the jury is out regarding that draft.

That being said, 2006 was a wacky draft. Here's my take on how the top 10 have done:

1. Mario Williams: A beast.
2. Reggie Bush: Good player, but nowhere near the hype.
3. VY: Who knows if this guy will improve
4. D'Brick: Terrible in pass protection. Not a bust...yet.
5. AJ Hawk: Not lighting the world on fire.
6. Vernon Davis: He might be good, but needs a QB.
7. Michael Huff: Apparently on the trading block
8. Donte Whitner: Maybe he wasn't a reach!
9. Ernie Sims: See A.J. Hawk
10. Leinart: Kinda sucks.

6
by Tom (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 2:43pm

Re 1:

I did. I never thought Reggie Bush would live up to the hype, and even if he did an elite defensive end is more valuable than a running back. Plus, basically everyone was predicting Vince Young to be a bust.

7
by Gerry (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 2:44pm

#1: "who would’ve thought that Mario Williams would turn out to be the correct pick at number one?"

The Texans, to begin with! :-)

8
by Andy (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 2:49pm

#6: I don't remember everyone, or even the consensus, to be that Vince Young would be a bust.

Maybe my friends and I don't count, but everyone I talked to after seeing the Rose Bowl vs. USC and thought this guy was gonna tear up the NFL.

9
by MJK (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 3:00pm

I looked at Vince Young and saw Kordell Stewart.

Which, depending on what you think of "Slash", could be either a good thing or a bad thing. But not a top 10 pick thing...

10
by Tom (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 3:01pm

Re 8:

He had bad lewin projection, none of the writers on FO liked the pick, most people on ESPN called it a "risky" pick. He has a strange throwing motion. Just google Merrill Hodge and Vince Young to see how he feels about him.

11
by Chad (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 3:20pm

I'm still not sold on Young, but I prefer to look at this instance in terms of a refreshing honesty on the part of the player. My guess is that the thought of retirement goes through the mind of nearly every rookie (whether seriously contemplating it or not), and Young was candid when he admitted to having had these thoughts. I applaud him, while remaining unconvinced that he will be any good.

12
by Jimmy (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 3:20pm

Young has been up and down over his career to date, but he hasn't exactly been throwing to star players. The best WR he has had in the NFL is Justin Gage, who is a Bears reject (need I say more).

How would he have played if he had a Terrell Owens or Randy Moss to throw to.

13
by PaulH (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 3:26pm

Re: 8

#10 is right. Many, many people thought that Young was going to be a bust, myself included. As #10 said, he has a bad Lewin projection, no one at FO liked him, and even many of the "experts" in the mainstream media said he was a big risk / reward pick.

The general consensus around here was that Young was a great college football player, but not projecting to be all of that good of an NFL quarterback.

14
by PaulH (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 3:28pm

Young has been up and down over his career to date, but he hasn’t exactly been throwing to star players. The best WR he has had in the NFL is Justin Gage, who is a Bears reject (need I say more).

How would he have played if he had a Terrell Owens or Randy Moss to throw to.

I don't think anyone would necessarily disagree with you, but I do think it's a relatively moot point.

No the Titans don't have any great receivers, but by the same token it does not look like the Titans are doing anything to get anyone particularly good ones either. So, that's not going to change.

Beyond that, yes Young would be better with a guy like Moss or T.O., but then again so would every other quarterback... ever.

15
by Rocky the Philly Eagle (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 3:38pm

Re:1 Anyone who actually watches the draft could predict this. Taking a 1st rd. RB is nuts. Hungry kids run hard, RB's with big contracts don't. Even if they do, RB's are way too fragile and disposable to invest high draft picks.

Same thing goes for mobile Qb's. McNabb is the only mobile running QB of the last 10 years that has actually produced enough be worth his lofty 1st round status. VY, JaMarcus, Akili Smith - all potential no production. Culpepper, Vick- flashes of brillance, ultimately not the answer.

16
by PaulH (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 3:43pm

Looking back on the 2006 NFL Draft, it hasn't done as well as many people thought it would to this point. Let's look at things a bit deeper:

(1) Mario Williams: As much hell as the Texans got for taking him, Williams looks to be a beast at one of the elite positions. Great pick.

(2) Reggie Bush: Good receiver, but as someone watches the Saints every weekend, he's simply the worst natural runner I've ever seen. He's a great athlete, but a terrible pure runner. At the very least he'll never live up to the hype he was given.

(3) Vince Young: I really cannot say he has done anything that would change the pre-draft projections around here. He will never be a particularly good passer, and you have to question his mental toughness after this.

(4) D'Brickashaw Ferguson: I'm not too sure about him, don't get to see him play much. I don't think he's set the world on fire, but he hasn't been terrible either.

(5) A.J. Hawk: A very good player for the Packers. He might not be as good as Demeco, but still a very good pick.

(6) Vernon Davis: Unreal athlete, but a terrible attitude and very little production. I know he's had terrible quarterbacks to get him the ball, but it's not like that looks to change any time soon, and he just hasn't lived up to the hype.

(7) Michael Huff: They rarely show the Raiders down this way, but browsing his stats he only has one interception in two years, and apparently the acquisition of Gibril Wilson has moved him to free safety. That doesn't sound all of that good to me.

(8) Donte Whitner: His production seems pretty much right on-par with Huff.

(9) Ernie Sims: Good player, but a terrible team. Poor guy.

(10) Matt Leinart: Great Lewin projection and all, Leinart has struggled to date. I still think he'll rebound and have a solid career, but it hasn't looked too pretty to date.

17
by PaulH (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 3:45pm

Same thing goes for mobile Qb’s. McNabb is the only mobile running QB of the last 10 years that has actually produced enough be worth his lofty 1st round status. VY, JaMarcus, Akili Smith - all potential no production. Culpepper, Vick- flashes of brillance, ultimately not the answer.

You are right in general, but JaMarcus should not be on that list.

I guess some people think he's mobile because he's black, but that's not the reality. Russell is a behemoth guy who weighs around 270 pounds, and a guy that is slower than most blocking tight ends. He should never be on a list with mobile quarterbacks... you may as well put Jared Lorenzen on there.

18
by Theo, Netherlands (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 4:16pm

:: PaulH — 5/27/2008 @ 2:45 pm
.
have we started a legenda over here?
'Mobile quarterbacks'
'posession receiver'
'road grinder'
'head hunter'
'Fan favorite / deceptively fast'
etc

19
by someone (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 4:18pm

Yeah, before you all go patting yourselves on the backs, you might want to remember the consensus view on this site from the posters and the staff was that the Texans were nuts for not taking Ferguson.

20
by Tom (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 4:28pm

Isn't Big Ben considered a mobile quarterback, and maybe even Jay Cutler to some extent?

The ratio of all successful quarterbacks to busts is terrible, so if you take a subset, mobile quarterbacks, that subset doesn't look good either.

21
by Andy (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 4:43pm

"The ratio of all successful quarterbacks to busts is terrible, so if you take a subset, mobile quarterbacks, that subset doesn’t look good either."

Excellent point.

22
by thestar5 (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 4:56pm

I think the only player more overrated than Bush on that USC team was Leinart. I don't know how anyone who watched him play could think he would be a good NFL QB. He was a product of the guys around him. He should have been a 4th round pick. I mean, really, he's Trent Edwards. No speed, weak arm, average accuracy, decent awarenss. Just an unbelievably overrated player. He's never going to be even an average QB.

23
by Bill Barnwell :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 5:01pm

Yeah, before you all go patting yourselves on the backs, you might want to remember the consensus view on this site from the posters and the staff was that the Texans were nuts for not taking Ferguson.

I'd like to point out that you can find this consensus view at here if you don't just want to take a troll's opinion at face value. Thanks!

24
by bubqr (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 5:05pm

I never understood why so few peopel talked about it, but if Norm Chow, and the Titans, who knew Leinart really well, took Young, it might mean more about Leinart than about VY. Just a thought...

25
by Bobman (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 5:19pm

My non-scientific best comparison for Vince Young is... Peyton Manning. Both southerners, both QBs in the ACFS and they rank #1 and #2 for majestic giantness of their foreheads. I have watched drive-in movies on smaller screens.

So he is either in-line for multiple MVPs or just being the spokesman for AMC theaters. Just can't tell which....

26
by db (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 5:27pm

Vince be dumb, like really dumb. Mr. "6" vunderlyk is not likely to ever be good. As to #22, you base this on what? Your years of experience slagging players on boards?

27
by Radierjoe (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 5:34pm

re5 Is Poster drunk?
Ernie Sims one of best linebackers in league. Big reason why Lions beat fraiders 36-222 in week 1 in 2007 seaosn.

28
by Radierjoe (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 5:47pm

in 2006 draft experts say Raiders should gof draft Matt Leinart or Vince Young. Raiders didn't like either one of them and got safety insteda. Raiders waited for one more season to draft Qb and got best one because they wait.

J Russell going to be much better pro qB than V Young or M Leinart or the other guy.

29
by Yaguar (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 6:00pm

I was definitely one of the pro-Ferguson people for Houston, and I do remember there were far more of us than there were Williams people. Let's not try to pretend that a whole lot of us advocated taking him first overall.

I had minor reservations about Bush, but not many. I saw the flaws, but thought his strengths would totally overcompensate for them. It was pretty obvious that the guy couldn't run hard and truck people, but I thought it didn't matter.

I didn't like the Young pick at all. I thought he was going to be a more mature Michael Vick. (Both more mature as a passer and more mature in general.) An interesting player, but more of a late first type project. I thought Leinart was an obvious stud.

All in all, that draft was pretty screwy and I was wrong about a whole lot, as was everyone except Charley Casserly. Its top ten is nearly as screwed up as 2005's, but it was much less obvious that it would turn out that way. (In 2005, I remember thinking "all of these guys are probably busts except for Braylon Edwards," and I think a lot of people similarly believed that there was a lot of reaching going on. But in 2006, NOBODY thought "all of these guys are probably busts except for Mario Williams.")

30
by Sergio (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 6:13pm

re: 24

Yeah, Bill, I think the best thing would be to link to the thread we all *really* want to see (link dutifully placed in name).

You guys know you want it.

31
by PaulH (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 6:15pm

I never understood why so few peopel talked about it, but if Norm Chow, and the Titans, who knew Leinart really well, took Young, it might mean more about Leinart than about VY. Just a thought…

I've always wondered about that too. I mean you do have to logically assume that if the coach who knew him best did not pick him, he probably wasn't regarded as that good.

I know he had an incredible Lewin projection, but I think it would take a fool to argue that a lot of his hype didn't come from the massive amount of talent surrounding him. For all intents and purposes, Leinart was playing against collegiate competition with an NFL caliber offense.

To be sure, I think that Leinart will eventually rebound and play pretty solid football, but I don't see him ever becoming a star. Being a Cardinal, he'll probably never have a great team around him, and given his performance in his first two years, I don't see any evidence that he will be able to get it done largely on his own. I think he will eventually peak out as a solid-to-above-average player, but that's about it. He won't bust, but I don't see him being a star.

32
by NewsToTom (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 6:23pm

Re #24
Reasonable speculation out of Tennessee is that the VY pick came from owner Bud Adams (who still lives in Houston) and/or then-GM Floyd Reese (not part of the USC mafia, drafted McNair over Kerry Collins, Fisher's desired Kevin Carter, etc.), not Fisher or Chow.

If you're going to talk about his Lewin projection, though, get it right. It's good-he started about 32 games and completed something like 63% of his passes. Leinart and Cutler both had better projections, but VY's was noticeably better than, say, JaMarcus Russell's.

As a Titans fan, I wholeheartedly supported taking VY #3 overall in 2006, knowing there was a reasonable P(bust) attached with the pick. Now, like #5 says, who knows how much he'll improve.

33
by John (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 6:24pm

Some MSM analyst wrote an article arguing that the Colts should do whatever it takes, including trading all their 2006 draft picks, to get Reggie Bush. "With all those weapons, and then add Bush, defensive coordinators would keel over and play dead."

Thank goodness Polian's a little smarter than the average analyst.

Addai, Keiaho...

34
by PaulH (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 6:27pm

Since we're going to bring up what we thought of the picks during the draft...

I was one of the few that liked the Mario Williams pick. He was an athletic freak like we, arguably, have never seen, and I thought he would be a great player if he was given the time to develop. It looks like I nailed that one.

With Reggie Bush, I really thought he was going to be a superstar. I knew he wasn't powerful and that he would need to transition to the speed in the NFL, but I still thought he would be a truly great player. Obviously, I was completely wrong on that one.

I wasn't excited about Vince Young, either. I looked at him and saw, at best, Michael Vick without the character concerns, and a player who would generally have a short career because he relied so heavily on his mobility. I thought he would never be a particularly good passer, and would make his living off of his legs. I think I nailed that one.

I didn't know much about Ferguson, I never got to see any UVA games.

I wasn't sold on Hawk. I didn't see where he had the athleticism needed to be a special player in this league. Again, wrong.

I thought Vernon Davis was going to be an elite tight end, as long as he had a decent quarterback to get him the ball. I think the jury is still out on him because he is still a physical freak, but it hasn't worked out quite like I expected.

I thought both Michael Huff and Donte Whitner were overrated players who wouldn't do anything special. I think that pick looks pretty good now.

I thought Ernie Sims would be a very good linebacker -- assuming the concussions didn't get him -- but that his talents would be wasted on a crappy team. Again, that's turned out about right.

35
by Sean McCormick :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 6:32pm

I would give Leinart a bit of a pass, myself. He's played two seasons, sustained two injuries and played under two head coaches and three offensive coordinators. Not too many young quarterbacks succeed under those circumstances. I think he's very much the guy who carved up Chicago on Monday night, and I would still like his chances of blowing up better than any quarterback in the 06, 07 or 08 classes (alongside Cutler).

Really, I think it's still early on a lot of these guys. Bush, Young and Ferguson have all flashed elite ability, and none of the group have looked out of their depths.

36
by Alex (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 6:36pm

He had bad lewin projection, none of the writers on FO liked the pick, most people on ESPN called it a “risky” pick.

Nice bit of revisionist history there. Here's some of what Lewin wrote about Young in PFP 06:

"Young's projection is lower than Leinart's and Cutler's, but this does not mean the system thinks he will be the worst pro of the three. If Young meets this passing projection, he will be the best quarterback of this year's crop because he can combine that with his running ability."

McNabb is the only mobile running QB of the last 10 years that has actually produced enough be worth his lofty 1st round status.

You're missing Jay Cutler. Also, some later round mobile QBs have been successful. Jeff Garcia and Tony Romo being the most obvious.

37
by Jimmy (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 7:24pm

#35

After that game everyone was saying Leinart 'carved up' the Bears defense, but if you look a little closer at the stats for most of the game the Cards were averaging about 3 yards a pass play. He completed some nice passes, and his receivers made a few players miss on their TD drives, but in the whole game they barely threw the ball more than 15 yards. He did a decent job of dinking and dunking but no more. He was also culpable for failing to read the defense properly on plays that lead to turnovers. He played OK for a rookie, but people got carried away with how well he actually played.

38
by Raiderjoe (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 7:28pm

re28
Oh just remembered other guy was Jay Cutler, poster in post 36 made me remember Cutler. Definitely not a very good player and it shows by Broncos not making playoffs. Jake Plumber had tesam with good record and then Cutler started and the Broncos went downhill.
I rank the recent #1 Qbs
1. JaMarcus Russell
2. Matt Leinart
3. Vince Young
4. Jay Cutler
5. Brady Quinn

B Quinn is total garbage

39
by Raiderjoe (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 7:30pm

re27, 28
Sorry, about name. Had to reboot somputer the other day. Was too drunk to spell my name the write way before LOL

40
by mikeabbott (not verified) :: Tue, 05/27/2008 - 9:25pm

reading the old thread reminded me of the 'coaches pleased with prospects answers' stories we had with chad jackson to go with his speed.
I hope he turns into a draft success this year but injuries have wrecked a lot of promising careers.

41
by Richard (not verified) :: Wed, 05/28/2008 - 4:50am

Was there a better first round pick than Cromartie in '06? I seem to recall experts not liking it at the time.

42
by lobolafcadio (not verified) :: Wed, 05/28/2008 - 5:36am

I think it's fair to say the wonderful USC backfield (Leinart, Bush, White) didn't live up to expectations.
I think VY needs to be the "alpha-dog" to be at his best, wait for a few years when he is the vet on his team before to judge him.
And JaMarcus Russell isn't a mobile QB, and Cutler is.
And yes MJD is a fan favorite !

43
by Dice (not verified) :: Wed, 05/28/2008 - 7:27am

Of course Vice Young considered retiring. Must be an awful thing, to suck when you reach the pros after having a good college career. Also consider that they needed to replace a very popular McNair, and they chose a similar player.

I can't definitively say that Young will never improve. But something tells me the answer is no. He's going to remain a subpar QB who can run until he gets injured.

44
by Cyrus (not verified) :: Wed, 05/28/2008 - 9:02am

I'm disappointed nobody clicked on Sergio's link and reread the Robo Punter thread.

I think Leinart and Bush can still become elite. Bush missed 4 games last year, so he was on pace for 1300 total yards and almost 100 receptions. Thats not worthy of being called a bust-- he is just not doing what he is capable of.

I think Leinart is going to be a much better QB after getting injured and having to sit and scout and watch tapes and learn from Warner. He was the anointed one, he never had to work, he had an entire year of school where he played football and went to "ballroom dancing". He needed to have a challenge, and I think it will make him better.

No opinion on Vince Young... I'm not a fan of his style, because his rookie year I thought he won games by his rushing and not his passing, and eventually, teams can stop him from rushing like that. But if he can pick up his passing a bit, he could be pretty good.

45
by Vlad (not verified) :: Wed, 05/28/2008 - 9:16am

"McNabb is the only mobile running QB of the last 10 years that has actually produced enough be worth his lofty 1st round status."

Big Ben should probably count as a running QB, too. He does a lot of his best work with his feet moving - he's just a pass-first running QB, if that makes any sense.

46
by Mark (not verified) :: Wed, 05/28/2008 - 11:24am

#23: Great looking back. Feel sorry for this guy, though:

I can forgive the Texans for passing up Bush, put chosing Ryans with the second round pick with Justice, McNeal, and Winston still on the board? Texans are idiots

Ouch. Heck, we all miss from time to time.

47
by Ryan Harris (not verified) :: Wed, 05/28/2008 - 11:45am

When I think of a "mobile QB" I think of a QB that isnt a great passer and therefore makes it up with their feet.

So when people say that Big Ben, Cutler and Mcnabb are mobile QB's I disagree. Sure they are capable of running but they pass first, not the other way around. I remember a game when Vick had 2 tds and like 210 yds passing and he said "see I can be a passer". Thats a mobile QB for ya.

So for all the hoopla about running around etc; A QB's job is to pass the ball, bottom line. Yes sometimes a play breaks down and they need to scramble, but passing the ball is still the main function of a QB.

So if a slow guy cant chuck the rock, he is a bust. If a fast athletic guy cant get it done he is considered a mobile QB(like Mike Vick.)

Its only 2 years, you cant really call anyone a bust yet. Count me in as one guy who thinks Bush will rebound and be a star. Last year was crazy for the Saints because there season was an enigma: (call me a homer, but im going to say the following anyway)

Drew Brees could have been the MVP last year. Once Deuce went out the Saints were screwed. Everytime Bush was in the backfield teams knew it was a run and just closed in on it. The reason they could do it was because teams stopped covering the TE's. Seriously Eric Johnson cant catch a cold, I saw 4 plays last year where Brees hit him in the chops and not only did it get dropped, it got intercepted.

Then outside of Colston the Saints had no playmakers, so teams knew they only had to defend 2 guys.

Bush will be back, the Saints will use him more like they did the first year, and Meachem should help take some pressure off.

48
by Alex (not verified) :: Wed, 05/28/2008 - 12:06pm

Bush missed 4 games last year, so he was on pace for 1300 total yards and almost 100 receptions.

1300 total yards is about average for a starting RB. 100 receptions is great, but only if you gain enough yards to help the team move the chains. Bush had a negative receiving DVOA, and even if you gave him 100 receptions with the same DVOA, his receiving DPAR only would've been 4.5, which would've put him at 21st among NFL RBs.

That said, I agree that he could still be quite good, but his performance over the last two years doesn't exactly help make the case for that.

49
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Wed, 05/28/2008 - 4:12pm

#43 - I wouldn't call Steve McNair and Vince Young similar QBs, unless you are referring to their obvious similarity...that both were drafted #3 overall.

50
by PaulH (not verified) :: Wed, 05/28/2008 - 4:42pm

1300 total yards is about average for a starting RB. 100 receptions is great, but only if you gain enough yards to help the team move the chains. Bush had a negative receiving DVOA, and even if you gave him 100 receptions with the same DVOA, his receiving DPAR only would’ve been 4.5, which would’ve put him at 21st among NFL RBs.

I think you absolutely nailed it.

It was just that he struggled as a runner in 2007, it was that he was absolutely horrific. The man literally finished dead last in both DVOA and DPAR. That has happened a few times in the DVOA era, but it was with terrible players, and it's hard to say that Bush was anything better than terrible last year.

As a receiver, he caught a ton of passes, but they really weren't valuable catches. Hence his relatively low receiving DVOA and DPAR. And actually his rookie season was better than his sophomore campaign in terms of catching the football. His catch percentage was approximately the same in both years, but in 2007 he had fewer receptions, barely half of the receiving yards, his average yards per catch fell dramatically, and he had fewer first downs. Moreover, the vaunted big play element was completely gone. In 2006, he had three catches of longer than 70 yards, and last year he had only one catch of longer than 20 yards (and it went for only 25 yards and came against the 49ers).

I hope Bush rebounds, but given his terrible 2007 season, I really don't see any reason to believe he will be able to become even near what people thought he would be.

51
by Mr Shush (not verified) :: Wed, 05/28/2008 - 5:06pm

"All in all, that draft was pretty screwy and I was wrong about a whole lot, as was everyone except Charley Casserly"

Ok, seriously, people need to stop kidding themselves that Casserly was responsible for that draft class. No team fires front office employees in the run-up to the draft, in case they leak information to a new employer, so any such person who is fired immediately after the draft, as Casserly was, was really terminated some time before it and kept on the payroll without being allowed serious input. In this specific case, Kubiak had been appointed some time earlier and given final say on personnel from the day of his hiring. The 2006 Texans draft is Kubiak's, not Casserly's.

52
by sexlexia (not verified) :: Wed, 05/28/2008 - 7:04pm

Re: 41

That was certainly a great pick, and in terms of value and analysts' opinions of Cro it was probably the best of the first round. Holmes @ 25 was a good pick and I think the Texans taking Williams #1 should be considered.

53
by Richard (not verified) :: Wed, 05/28/2008 - 8:51pm

52: Williams is certainly a consideration, though value-wise I don't think you can argue against Cro.

54
by Yaguar (not verified) :: Thu, 05/29/2008 - 2:16am

52,53, etc.

The best pick of the 2006 first round was Jay Cutler, hands down.

55
by Tom D (not verified) :: Thu, 05/29/2008 - 3:41am

Re 47:

"When I think of a “mobile QB” I think of a QB that isnt a great passer and therefore makes it up with their feet. "

Well, sure if you narrow down the definition enough you can claim any type of player is bad. For example:

When I think of a pocket passer, I think of a QB that refuses to scramble for any reason. When people say Peyton Manning is a pocket passer I disagree. Before this past year he was averaging 78 rushing yards a season. Rex Grossman, Drew Bledsoe, those are pocket passers.

56
by Pat (not verified) :: Thu, 05/29/2008 - 6:41am

#30: The most fantastic thing about linking to the ROBO-PUNTER thread is that it is completely on topic.

ROBO-PUNTER came about because it was being debated whether Williams was a better pick than Bush. (So, incidentally, the "people who thought that Williams was a better pick than Bush" list apparently includes the Texans, and me. Is that good company? I can't tell.)

Also, the people saying that Young had a bad Lewin projection should go back and actually read the projection. He did not, in fact, have a bad projection. Just not as good as Cutler or Leinart.

57
by parker (not verified) :: Thu, 05/29/2008 - 10:46am

Weren't people calling Larry Johnson a bust two years into his career? Lets wait awhile before we anoint Mario Williams the consensus best player of his draft just because he beat Denver's terrible o-line on national tv.

Saints need to be a little more creative with Bush and allow him to return punts and kickoffs. Get that guy into the open field.

58
by Alex (not verified) :: Thu, 05/29/2008 - 11:36am

Vince be dumb, like really dumb. Mr. “6″ vunderlyk is not likely to ever be good.

So what if he is dumb? He's not trying to be a rocket scientist, he's trying to be a football player. Terry Bradshaw was dumb as a rock, and he's a Hall of Famer with 4 Super Bowl rings.

Really, I think it’s still early on a lot of these guys.

Exactly. Two years isn't even close to enough to know whether they're going to be great or not. For instance, if Vince Young became really great, he wouldn't be the first QB taken in the top 5 picks to suck for two years and then become great. Bradshaw and Aikman both played poorly in their first two years, and they did fine. Hell, VY wouldn't even be the first QB with that last name to turn things around after two bad years. Steve Young busted out of Tampa Bay after two miserable years, and he went on to become one of the greatest QBs in NFL history.

The word "bust" simply should not be used to describe rookies, or even second year players.

59
by PaulH (not verified) :: Thu, 05/29/2008 - 12:26pm

Weren’t people calling Larry Johnson a bust two years into his career? Lets wait awhile before we anoint Mario Williams the consensus best player of his draft just because he beat Denver’s terrible o-line on national tv.

Saints need to be a little more creative with Bush and allow him to return punts and kickoffs. Get that guy into the open field.

Some idiots may have been calling Johnson a bust at that stage, but he actually did pretty well.

As a rookie in 2003, Johnson posted a very high DVOA (28.7), but all in all just didn't see the ball very often. At the time Priest Holmes was by far the most productive back in all of football -- he led the league in DPAR with a margin of almost 20 percentage points over second place Tomlinson -- and he absorbed most of the carries.

In his sophomore campaign, he had a really good season. He averaged over four yards per carry, and scored nine touchdowns. He finished the year 9th in DPAR, and 4th in DVOA.

Johnson really never struggled. His biggest problem as a rookie was who had playing in front of him, and by his second year he was already establishing himself as one of the better backs in the league. If anyone was calling Johnson a bust, they were being downright idiotic about the situation.

60
by bravehoptoad (not verified) :: Thu, 05/29/2008 - 4:14pm

I don't where all these comparisons of Huff and Whitner come from, calling them both mediocre.

Huff isn't good; Whitner is great.

61
by Ben (not verified) :: Fri, 05/30/2008 - 9:15am

41 Cromartie probably had the best combine of any defensive backfield prospect ever. The knock on him was that he only played one year in college and was coming off a major knee injury. Most experts considered him a major boom or bust pick, and someone who would need a few years to learn the mental side of the game given his lack of playing experience in college.

2006 is starting to look like a draft year in which the combine numbers told a more accurate story than the game tape.