Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

31 Dec 2009

The AFC Wild Card Race In Graphic Form

FO reader "gratif1" put together this handy chart showing who the Wild Card teams will be, and in what seed, based on every possible outcome of games this Sunday. (Except ties. If there is a tie this weekend, the postseason is canceled. See you next year.) Print this out and have it with you on Sunday, and scratch out the possibilities as games finish.

There's also this fun simulator from Yahoo! that lets you plug in any result (including ties!) for any game, and it will tell you what the playoff matchups will be.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 31 Dec 2009

10 comments, Last at 03 Jan 2010, 3:34pm by ammek

Comments

1
by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 12/31/2009 - 8:08am

goign with 8th one down list in HOU red section. That way makes denver and NY Jets in palyoofs.

Good chart and good job. No shed for gratif1.

2
by Joe T. :: Thu, 12/31/2009 - 8:50am

I motion that "Locked in the shed" replace "Thrown under the bus" for 2010.

Nice graph - that took some time.

3
by Thok :: Thu, 12/31/2009 - 11:09am

(Except ties. If there is a tie this weekend, the postseason is canceled. See you next year.)

Feh, not really. Any tie between 8-7-1 teams ends up being resolved in the same manner as if those teams were 9-7. (For example, if New Jersey, Baltimore, Denver are at 8-7-1, then the Jets go first on common opponents and then Baltimore goes because they beat the Broncos.) The main observation is that there are no interesting head to head match-ups this week, and if you have at least a one game lead in a tie breaker at 9-7, then you have at least a half game lead in that tiebreaker at 8-7-1.

4
by Harmy G (not verified) :: Thu, 12/31/2009 - 11:16am

I wish gratif1 had somehow grouped all the NYJ and BAL winning combos together.

9
by gratif1 (not verified) :: Thu, 12/31/2009 - 5:53pm

You do it! -smileemoticonhere-

5
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Thu, 12/31/2009 - 11:39am

Very nifty!

6
by Justin Zeth :: Thu, 12/31/2009 - 1:33pm

I'm not real popular around here right now. I have a bad habit of responding to 'It's not fair that the Steelers lose almost all the tiebreakers!' with 'All they had to do was beat the goddamned Browns and it wouldn't matter, so quit bitching.'

8
by MurphyZero :: Thu, 12/31/2009 - 4:11pm

Not just the Browns, Chiefs and Raiders as well. Could have had the division, even losing twice to CIN. Not bitter or nothing.

7
by kyle_lville :: Thu, 12/31/2009 - 3:39pm

What should the Bengals do? The majority (I think) argue for not playing starters, taking a rest, and playing the Jets again in wildcard 1st round. Assuming they win, they travel to nearby Indy instead of back to SD.

Marvin Lewis argues getting the 3rd seed for the possibility of hosting the AFC championship game, which only matters in the specific situation that NE beats Indy.

The ideal outcome for me? Balt and Pitt in playoffs, Cincy beats either in Wildcard and other at home in AFC Champ game en route to 1st Superbowl victory! Longshot, I know... :(

10
by ammek :: Sun, 01/03/2010 - 3:34pm

So it's possible for all four wildcard games to be rematches of Week 17:
Hou-NE, Cin-NYJ, GB-Ariz, Phi-Dal