Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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05 Nov 2009

Andrew Brandt On Signing FAs

Andrew Brandt of the National Football Post gave an interview and discussed why he doesn't blame the Packers for going after free agents to appease Brett Favre...

“Well why is there a philosophy? Because that philosophy has been practiced by a lot of people in the past and has proven to be somewhat successful… Listen there are extremes. I mean there are teams that go and make the big splashes every year, one of them in Washington, D.C., and the success has not been there. Clearly it is a correlation between winning and spending has not been clear. That is kind of the biggest reasons to avoid free agency. Let me say it again, there has not been a proven correlation in the NFL between spending and winning. When you make that statement then you can see why people avoid big spending in free agency, why people avoid big spending in trades, etc. When the Vikings made the acquisition of Jared Allen and paid him the highest contract in defensive ends at the time and gave up top draft choices. You can say what you want about that deal they ended up into the playoffs but they ended up in a place where they probably didn’t want to end up last year. This year they have started out very strong so I think what philosophy rings true but listen there are philosophies that win and philosophies that lose and I don’t think it is proven that one is a formula that excludes the other.”

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 05 Nov 2009

8 comments, Last at 06 Nov 2009, 5:40am by ammek

Comments

1
by DrewTS (not verified) :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 4:17pm

I agree with the general idea that big spending does not correlate with winning, but I'm not sure the Jared Allen trade is the best example of that. He is very clearly a good player who made his team better. By how much can be debated, but at least he's playing at a high level.

2
by tuluse :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 4:29pm

And I hear they signed some free agent QB, who might be helping them a little this year.

3
by DrewTS (not verified) :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 5:38pm

Word.

4
by JuridianSantaal... :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 5:42pm

Also the team recouped some of the costs of Allen's contract by trading away the picks they traded.

5
by Jimmy Oz (not verified) :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 6:05pm

You mean because they traded away draft picks, they didn't have to pay the draftees?

6
by Jimmy :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 6:48pm

The contracts those rookies would have received would have cost maybe $10m in bonus money and $20m (or so) over the next four years. It is a saving but quite a small one. Of course Jared Allen is clearly worth very penny which helps.

7
by Dice :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 9:54pm

Free agency isn't how you build your team(looking at you, Snyder). Its how you fill those last pieces you need for a playoff run, or add a vital player whose production is needed. It takes a few years to develop even top draft picks, typically. Free agency lets you acquire that developed player that you need(like Allen). Its a useful tool, and I can respect teams that use it wisely. I think Favre's perspective is slightly skewed by Reggie White.

8
by ammek :: Fri, 11/06/2009 - 5:40am

Perhaps. But the Packers under Ron Wolf — and notably the Superbowl teams — had a much better hit rate with trades, free agents and waiver acquisitions than they did with early-round draft picks. Favre might have supposed that, after the 13-3 season in 2007, the Packers were in the situation you describe — poised for a playoff run and perhaps more. In the same position in the mid-90s, Wolf went out and found Santana Dotson, Gilbert Brown, Sean Jones, Eugene Robinson, Keith Jackson, Bruce Wilkerson, Seth Joyner, Don Beebe, Sean Landeta, and eventually Andre Rison. As for Ted Thompson, he acquired Brandon Chillar.

Favre's criticism seems justified as it applies to the current season, for example: Green Bay entered the offseason with big holes at right tackle, safety and outside linebacker, and depth issues at left tackle, nose tackle, quarterback and running back. Thompson addressed two of those holes in the draft (Raji, Matthews) and attempted to find a safety in free agency (though Anthony Smith didn't work out). The rest? Ignored.

I'd suggest that failing to bring in any veteran cover at OT was not Thompson's most glorious decision. Now, of course, he has had to resurrect the Clifton-Tauscher show, in spite of the fact that both players are in serious decline.

I predict pain.

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