Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

07 Oct 2009

49ers Sign Crabtree

According to FOXSports.com's Jay Glazer, San Francisco's long nightmare is over. First-round draft pick Michael Crabtree has finally agreed to terms with the 49ers on a six-year deal. While Glazer broke the news, we must credit Deion Sanders with the solid hints last Sunday night.

Posted by: Doug Farrar on 07 Oct 2009

45 comments, Last at 08 Oct 2009, 7:23pm by bravehoptoad

Comments

1
by Sergio :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 8:49am

About time.

So, projections? Can the SF offense get a jumpstart from him (when he's up to speed, of course)?

-- Go Phins!

6
by Mr Shush :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 9:37am

I liked Crabtree very much as a prospect, and I think if he'd signed on time and been in camp, he could have been a big asset for the 49ers this season. But he didn't, and he wasn't, and while he may still ultimately turn out to be a very good player, I think there is almost no chance that he will have a major impact in 2009. He doesn't know the playbook, he has never played or practiced with his quarterback, he has never faced an NFL defense and he is probably not in optimum physical condition. In fantasy terms, I would not even think about picking him up for another month or so, and probably not then.

28
by C (not verified) :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 1:38pm

I agree.

and in fantasy football terms, I wouldn't even think about picking him up either for a month, but in all reality some gambler probably already has. The same guy that drafted Michael Vick, unproven rookies, guys trying to bounce back from injury just dropped somebody for Crabtree.

Tory Holt always tells rookie WR's to just sign. Don't worry about getting the very best possible deal. Sign as early as possible, get in camp, get in shape, learn your QB, learn your system, become a good player and the money will take care of itself. By missing so much of the season, YOU are really the one losing out longer term.

30
by Brendan Scolari :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 1:51pm

Agreed completely. Crabtree wouldn't be worth a pickup for at least a month in fantasy, but in every league there'll be someone who picks him up immediately.

40
by Guy #1 (not verified) :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 11:09pm

As somebody who always goes for the low risk/high reward niche, I'll tell you it's a perfectly legitimate strategy that has brought me success when I've done it wisely. Dropping Leon Washington for Crabtree wouldn't hurt my team one bit

2
by BywaterBrat (not verified) :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 9:12am

I think this could be huge, considering dropping my 4th RB to pick him up in FF...he's got IB there to get him up to speed quickly

7
by MilkmanDanimal :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 9:44am

Because nothing says "fantasy football success" like "rookie WR". Particularly one who missed all of camp and the first four games of the season.

3
by BywaterBrat (not verified) :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 9:13am

I think this could be huge, considering dropping my 4th RB to pick him up in FF...he's got IB there to get him up to speed quickly

4
by Anonymous Coward (not verified) :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 9:15am

Rumor is the the impasse in negotiations was broken by none other than MC Hammer

9
by The Guy You Don't Want to Hear (not verified) :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 9:51am

I can't touch that.

10
by The Guy You Don't Want to Hear (not verified) :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 9:52am

I have immediately felt shame for actually posting that . . .

12
by jack :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 10:36am

What the hell could MC Hammer have done? I'll tell you, he must have prayed, PRAYED, prayed, PRAYED, he must have prayed for Mike to sign today.

13
by BroncosGuy (not verified) :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 11:05am

Keep 'em coming. You guys are too legit to quit.

20
by Bobman :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 12:39pm

No need to feel shame--that was awesome.
$5 if you work a Vanilla Ice joke into your next comment.

32
by the K (not verified) :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 2:17pm

If there was a problem, yo he solved it.

38
by The Guy You Don't Want to Hear (not verified) :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 5:16pm

Man, way to put me under pressure.

Does that count?

43
by Anon (not verified) :: Thu, 10/08/2009 - 2:46am

Here's an old one:

Q: What do Bo Jackson and Vanilla Ice have in common?

A: Artificial hip

5
by Thok :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 9:34am

Crabtree could help the Niners some.

He'd help them more if he could play RT.

15
by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 11:18am

Zing!

17
by bravehoptoad :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 11:42am

Year after year, the 9ers have these meat-and-potatoes drafts. We take in the first round linebackers, guards, defensive tackles. The sexiest pick we've taken since Alex Smith bombed has been a LT.

Until this year. Couln't we have waited another year to get flashy? How many people here wish we had Oher at RT instead of this "difference maker?"

19
by MJK :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 12:07pm

Agree with your sentiment.

But disagree with your choice of abbreviation. "Niners" is short for "Fortyniners". OK, I get it, five characters fewer. But if "Niners" is still too many, people write "49ers"...it's only one character shorter, but you get the brevity without having to drop the "40". But shortening it to "9ers"? Is that really necessary?

22
by Floyd (not verified) :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 12:44pm

How about just SF then? Can't really go shorter than that. And it is on their helmets, at least until Jed moves the team to LA.

23
by Brendan Scolari :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 1:31pm

Huh? They're building a stadium in Santa Clara.

33
by bravehoptoad :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 3:09pm

Maybe not necessary, but extremely common.

However, rejoice! The team's name means that everyone in the state knows when the California gold rush started.

36
by dbt :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 4:44pm

1848?

45
by bravehoptoad :: Thu, 10/08/2009 - 7:23pm

Silly...48 is when gold was discovered. The rush didn't start until a year later. That's why they're not called the "48ers."

42
by Spenczar! (not verified) :: Thu, 10/08/2009 - 2:00am

4 weeks into 1849?

8
by Dice :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 9:46am

If you play in a keeper league, Crabtree could be worth picking up, esp if you get him cheap. If not, I'd probably pass.

31
by Brendan Scolari :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 1:52pm

I'd imagine he's already on some teams roster in keeper leagues.

11
by andrew :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 10:24am

Money aside, I'll wager Crabtree thought the Niners would be a crappy team, especially without him.

Now that they are a good team without him, it makes playing for them seem more attractive.

I hope Singletery straightens him out.

14
by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 11:18am

meh

16
by Penelope Pittstop (not verified) :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 11:26am

what's the over/under for when he tweaks a hammy?

18
by jimbohead :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 12:05pm

See, I remember the Cards run blitzing 6-7 every play that first game, thinking to myself: "how awesome would it be to someone who could do something on a bubble screen? I wish we had drafted someone like that..."

Point is, he doesn't have to know a lot to be effective. If he can catch on a fly route and make people miss on a screen, then maybe he can get rid of some of these 7 man run blitzes.

26
by Brendan Scolari :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 1:35pm

You mean you don't like the 3 yard bubble screens to Isaac Bruce? ;-)

Crabtree should easily be the best YAC receiver on the Niners right now.

21
by Temo :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 12:43pm

Happy that Crabtree got whatever he was looking for. Still think he'll be a solid NFL WR.

25
by MilkmanDanimal :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 1:34pm

I would guess he got enough humiliation and embarrassment that he finally sucked it up and signed the damn deal.

29
by Temo :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 1:41pm

I don't think that's the case at all.

24
by Brendan Scolari :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 1:33pm

Thank god. I don't think he;ll make too much of an impact this year (although he could move into the starting lineup later on this season) but he's still a great talent.

I agree with bravehoptoad that Oher would be a lot bigger help right now but the thinking was that Crabtree will be a more valuable player eventually because he's more talented. Hopefully the Niners address OT with one of their two first round picks this year.

27
by Tundrapaddy (not verified) :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 1:36pm

Crabtree signed? Awesome!

Now the 49ers are GUARANTEED to be no better than they were without him!

I hope they actually reduced their initial offer (or extended the timeframe), seeing as how this year is going to be a prolonged training camp for him.

34
by JoeHova :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 3:45pm

But isn't that the case for the vast majority of rookie WRs, regardless of when they sign?

35
by Temo :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 4:34pm

Looks like Crabtree didn't gain much from his hold out. He got a little extra guarenteed, but also got a 6th year tacked on. However, the 6th year is voidable.

37
by Theseus (not verified) :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 5:04pm

Since when is this a fantasy football site? Reading these comments, you'd think that's the only thing that matters.

It's still early, but it's looking likely that the 49ers are playoff-bound given the quality of the rest of their division, and adding a serious WR threat who has the whole season to get in shape and learn the offense can be nothing but good for their odds once they hit the playoffs, right? They rank 24th in Offensive DVOA, and if they slowly work Crabtree into the mix, they can maybe contend against teams that are currently performing really well.

41
by Sifter :: Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:57am

Yep I hate fantasy too. Particularly all the 'who should I start' rubbish. Geez it's YOUR team, YOU decide. ZOMG should I start Marion Barber or Edgerrin James this week!?!?!?!?!

Back to 'real' football...If I'm Singletary I keep Crabtree out for the next 4 games, simulating training camp by getting him into shape and learning his playbook. Only limited reps in practice. Then for the next 4 games if all goes well get him into the games for plays that he knows well and that he will be comfortable with. Then the final 4 games of the year hopefully he's close to being completely ready to go and he might even be able to start.

39
by Theo :: Wed, 10/07/2009 - 7:34pm

Fantasy?
I dropped him like a brick and no one has picked him up.
All my 3 RBs on my roster are better worth traded than dropped for Crabtree.

44
by B-Rick (not verified) :: Thu, 10/08/2009 - 9:41am

Crabtree was a spread offense system WR in college. Those guys always appear better than they are, Ashley Lelie is a recent example. Unless you think SIngletary is going to start throwing it 60 times per game like Texas Tech, I'd 'pass' on him.

WORD TO YOUR MUTHA!

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