Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

27 Jan 2009

Doug Drinen Analyzes Super Bowl Squares

I noticed somebody ask for this in the Scramble thread. No, Football Outsiders has never done a statistical analysis of Super Bowl Squares, but Doug Drinen has. Here's a link to it.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 27 Jan 2009

8 comments, Last at 24 Dec 2012, 9:07am by Super bowl 2013


by Ralph Macchio (not verified) :: Tue, 01/27/2009 - 4:42pm

So where on the grid am I most likely to get a numbers?

by Theo :: Tue, 01/27/2009 - 7:41pm

What a fun!

by Joexxx (not verified) :: Wed, 01/28/2009 - 12:27pm

Yeah, what good is this if it doesn't tell you which square is most likely to get the good numbers?

by Bright Blue Shorts :: Wed, 01/28/2009 - 2:21pm

I believe it does tell you in the first big table ...

Squares are listed down the left hands side, and then some kind of "expected value" likelihood of them occurring at the end of the 1st/2nd/3rd/4th quarter. I'm guessing the final "EV" column tells you the overall earning potential for each box (e.g. 0-0 is unlikely at end of match, but pays best in both 1Q and 2Q).

So 7-0, 0-0, 3-0, 7-7, 7-4, 7-3 are the likely to be the highest overall earners*

NB this is based on the pool paying 10-10-10-70% of the pool at the end of each quarter.

by Herm? (not verified) :: Wed, 01/28/2009 - 1:01pm

This is how you pick a square: Hold the sheet in front of you. Think back to the days when you were learning how to multiply binomials, using the FOIL method. Close your eyes and picture First, Outer, Inner, Last. Now look down at the sheet. That spot where you just drooled?...that's your square, nerd.

by zlionsfan :: Thu, 01/29/2009 - 11:47am

What's odd is that he said he didn't have access to scores by quarter for all Super Bowls. Isn't that in the Record and Fact Book?

I mean, other people found this stuff out (presumably). This guy has everything through the first 40 Super Bowls. (He also has a nice little graphic displaying the data.)

by Bright Blue Shorts :: Thu, 01/29/2009 - 3:17pm

The data he has used to compile the squares is from every NFL game since 1994, not just the forty Super Bowls.

"Well, now I have score-by-quarter data for the entirety of the NFL’s 2-point-conversion era (1994–present), so it’s time for an update."

by Super bowl 2013 (not verified) :: Mon, 12/24/2012 - 9:07am

Yeah man! I read your post. Its make me feel better. Thanks once again.