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02 Jul 2009
Finding The Winning Factors
The always-excellent Stampede Blue has been running a series of features on Finding The Winning Factors, isolating statistics and their relationship to winning. Today's feature is on Drive Success Rate.
9 comments, Last at 03 Jul 2009, 3:54pm by Whelk
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Comments
Re: Finding The Winning Factors
That series is a good exploration of what correlates to wins, and since this particular entry is using one of my favorite FO concepts, DSR, I'm giddy.
Thanks for linking it in XP.
Re: Finding The Winning Factors
Why do people tend to overlook the "Points Scored greater than Points Conceded" statistic as a good indicator of teams winning matches?
Re: Finding The Winning Factors
Because it's too macroscopic. Factors that provide a greater number of samples (performance per down, per drive) and which are more repeatable and consistent are often more useful.
Re: Finding The Winning Factors
More than macroscopic it's just results based.
It doesn't tell you anything about how or why a team won. It's just as interesting as saying wins and losses correlate 100% to wins.
Re: Finding The Winning Factors
@Bright Blue Shorts:
How very Madden of you. "The key to winning is to score more points than the other team..."
Re: Finding The Winning Factors
because it ignores "They Wanted It More" and "Swagger".
Re: Finding The Winning Factors
I remember in the nineties when ESPN used to show hockey, they had Barry Melrose on in between periods, and he was asked what does team X need to do to comeback and win the game, and Melrose said, 'They need to score more goals and not give any up.' Great moment in Barry Melroseness.
Re: Finding The Winning Factors
And then he got another chance to coach, and apparently that was still the extent of his understanding of what makes a team win.
Re: Finding The Winning Factors
Don't want to crash the Colts' lovefest on the DSR page, but another way to look at the DSR stats is to examine the difference between a team's Offensive and Defensive DSR's. Patriots had the largest difference (6.2), Colts a close second (5.7). I think the Steelers were third (5.3). These three teams (with 6 SB winds among them since 2001) stand out from the rest. The next closest were the Eagles (3.4), Denver (2.9), and Ravens (2.4). It makes sense; teams that do the best job of bettering their opponents drive success rates are likely to be the most successful. I suppose other stats could be useful, such as: number of games that a team bettered it's opponents DSR's; average minimal difference score that predicts wins; etc. Giants had a 1.1 differential; I guess the 2007-2008 season was the "perfect storm" scenario for them. Interesting set of stats.
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