Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

printable version

Extra Points

Articles from around the Web



02 Jul 2009

Finding The Winning Factors

The always-excellent Stampede Blue has been running a series of features on Finding The Winning Factors, isolating statistics and their relationship to winning. Today's feature is on Drive Success Rate.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 02 Jul 2009

9 comments, Last at 03 Jul 2009, 3:54pm by Whelk

Comments

1
by Bobman :: Thu, 07/02/2009 - 3:38pm

That series is a good exploration of what correlates to wins, and since this particular entry is using one of my favorite FO concepts, DSR, I'm giddy.

Thanks for linking it in XP.

2
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Thu, 07/02/2009 - 3:58pm

Why do people tend to overlook the "Points Scored greater than Points Conceded" statistic as a good indicator of teams winning matches?

3
by tally :: Thu, 07/02/2009 - 4:36pm

Because it's too macroscopic. Factors that provide a greater number of samples (performance per down, per drive) and which are more repeatable and consistent are often more useful.

4
by tuluse :: Thu, 07/02/2009 - 5:12pm

More than macroscopic it's just results based.

It doesn't tell you anything about how or why a team won. It's just as interesting as saying wins and losses correlate 100% to wins.

5
by zz bottom (not verified) :: Thu, 07/02/2009 - 6:25pm

@Bright Blue Shorts:

How very Madden of you. "The key to winning is to score more points than the other team..."

6
by Jimmy Oz (not verified) :: Thu, 07/02/2009 - 7:08pm

because it ignores "They Wanted It More" and "Swagger".

7
by 3.14159265 (not verified) :: Thu, 07/02/2009 - 11:53pm

I remember in the nineties when ESPN used to show hockey, they had Barry Melrose on in between periods, and he was asked what does team X need to do to comeback and win the game, and Melrose said, 'They need to score more goals and not give any up.' Great moment in Barry Melroseness.

9
by Whelk :: Fri, 07/03/2009 - 3:54pm

And then he got another chance to coach, and apparently that was still the extent of his understanding of what makes a team win.

8
by PDX Mike (not verified) :: Fri, 07/03/2009 - 3:43am

Don't want to crash the Colts' lovefest on the DSR page, but another way to look at the DSR stats is to examine the difference between a team's Offensive and Defensive DSR's. Patriots had the largest difference (6.2), Colts a close second (5.7). I think the Steelers were third (5.3). These three teams (with 6 SB winds among them since 2001) stand out from the rest. The next closest were the Eagles (3.4), Denver (2.9), and Ravens (2.4). It makes sense; teams that do the best job of bettering their opponents drive success rates are likely to be the most successful. I suppose other stats could be useful, such as: number of games that a team bettered it's opponents DSR's; average minimal difference score that predicts wins; etc. Giants had a 1.1 differential; I guess the 2007-2008 season was the "perfect storm" scenario for them. Interesting set of stats.

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

More information about formatting options

CAPTCHA
To skip this, please log in.