Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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12 Jul 2009

FO On The Bears

I recently spoke to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Sun-Times regarding our Bears chapter in this year's book. For those of you who bought the book, it's a nice supplement to the chapter. For those of you who haven't (and what's wrong with you?), it details some of the statistics we discuss in the chapter.

Brad will also be going through over the next several days and breaking out some more information from the chapter, so if you're a Bears fan, it's certainly worth a look.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 12 Jul 2009

11 comments, Last at 13 Jul 2009, 5:23pm by Charlie

Comments

1
by Lou :: Sun, 07/12/2009 - 12:21pm

awesome, i just discovered brad briggs this offseason. i really like reading his updates on the bears

2
by Lou :: Sun, 07/12/2009 - 1:10pm

"For those of you who haven't (and what's wrong with you?)..."

i'm waiting for it in book form :(

4
by Key19 :: Mon, 07/13/2009 - 2:53am

As am I. Not sure why so many people want it as a PDF. I would still buy the PDF if it was the only thing going, but I would definitely not use it nearly as much as I would the book. Any official book date yet?

3
by Anonymous (not verified) (not verified) :: Sun, 07/12/2009 - 4:14pm

May 6th, your NFC North status update was lukewarm at best, including not even bringing up Pace's name. Now you're projecting the Bears as the top team? I'm not complaining because I think they are the top team, too, and all you need to see it is not to be lazy and follow the stories about immaturity, win-loss record, Hester's shortcomings, etc. The o-line's improved and deeper, QB massively upgraded, there's an actual RB backup, improvement from Olsen, Hester (who was damn good to begin with last year), Davis (yes Davis), which doesn't have to translate to double the points, just more sustained drives, better field position, punts becoming 3, 3 becoming 7, plus the rest the defense gets and more field to work with.

Speaking of the D, I actually think it's the bigger question mark, but still has an very good opportunity to improve. First and foremost, Harris has to revert to form, which to be honest, I'm dubious. The injury was two and a half years ago and he's still sitting out activities. Not inspiring. Yet, Marinelli's supposed to save the line. We'll see, but I am rather confident. The LBs are good and deep. The secondary has questions, but with more rest, improved line play and play-calling (what's Babich's role now if Lovie's calling the D plays?), the front 7 should be able to better cover up the secondary's shortcomings (which was really more about the blitz selling out, not getting to the QB anyway and then being picked apart with ease. And injuries of course). And that's assuming there are shortcomings in the first place. Both Vasher and Tillman have injury issues, but on the other hand can produce, plus Bowman's a good backup, too. The safety position has been talked about, but the options aren't terrible and they don't HAVE to be great like the line needs to be.

Typical top special teams can be expected.

All in all, if you move past "Cutler's not a winner" and "Hester's not a #1" you see competency or excellence all over the field. Bears fans are pumped for this season and while most of it is just because they have a QB finally, the truth is the team as a whole is primed for a special season.

It's just weird reading FO projects the Bears at the top on the heals of that May 6th non-endorsement. And don't tell me that the draft, while nice, is the reason for the newfound enthusiasm.

5
by Temo :: Mon, 07/13/2009 - 8:32am

I don't know why people have so much trouble recognizing that FO has several different writers and that they can all have different opinions, as well as opinions different from the "official" predictions from statistical analysis.

7
by Chip :: Mon, 07/13/2009 - 9:51am

Agreed. It was shocking to see such an optimistic projection after these comments all season. And Temo, the quotes are all from Mr. Barnwell. (The last one is the biggest head scratcher).

________________________

From the NFC North Four Downs :

"After years of waiting, the Bears finally secured their franchise quarterback; the arrival of Jay Cutler in a trade created hope around the Bears offense….. If (Chris) Williams isn't ready, it may not matter how good the Bears' quarterback is."

"Chicago's glaring hole heading into the offseason was at safety; as expected, longtime Bear Mike Brown was released, but instead of adding one of the prominent safeties available, Chicago chose former Saints free safety Josh Bullocks. Bullocks lost his starting job in New Orleans last year, which doesn't bode well considering how porous the Saints' secondary was. The Bears may very well miss Brown as the season goes along."

"NOTE: I got a couple of e-mails from readers wondering -- well, yelling at me for being so stupid, but I'll go with wondering -- why I didn't mention Orlando Pace in the tackle discussion above. My answer was that I'm very skeptical on the likelihood that a 33-year-old player who suffered season-ending injuries in 2006 and 2007 and missed time last year is the solution at any position. You, as always, are welcome to disagree."

From the Wisdom of the Crowds :

"More than 20 percent of respondents predicted that Cutler would throw for over 4000 yards in 2009. This confounded me; who is he going to be throwing to in order to reach 4000 yards? Can he bring Brandon Marshall along?"

"While KUBIAK isn't finished yet, it doesn't see Cutler's totals at the average level predicted by our followers…. but the team variables surrounding Cutler aren't very promising"

6
by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 07/13/2009 - 9:12am

Temo - If you have lots of different writers and one guy picks Seattle to win the NFC, One guy picks Dallas, one guy picks the Eagles etc...

I'm not sure how the projections went, but I don't believe you can just plant "Jay Cutler's stats/DVOA" into the Bears and expect a winner. There is a learning curve for a QB with a new system, new teammates.

The odds in Vegas like the Bears to win the NFC and I don't like it. In fact, I had a nice talk with an odds maker for MGM and he didn't like it either.

Sort of like how Favre went to the Jets and everybody went all crazy. Sell the news.

8
by Temo :: Mon, 07/13/2009 - 12:30pm

Temo - If you have lots of different writers and one guy picks Seattle to win the NFC, One guy picks Dallas, one guy picks the Eagles etc...

Yea, and? SI has a single magazine prediction, but they don't claim that all their writers ascribe to that single prediction. This goes back to all those people who say "FO predicted the Giants to be the worst team in the NFL the year they won the Super Bowl", when in fact it was just Schatz.

10
by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 07/13/2009 - 1:55pm

I'm pretty sure it was Schatz, Barnwell, Ryan ( I forgot his last name) wrote a pretty bleak outlook as well. It was certainly more than one guy.

9
by tuluse :: Mon, 07/13/2009 - 12:34pm

Of course Cutler is joining the Bears in time for summer OTAs, way before Favre did, and he's about 100 years younger.

I think Cutler will work out a little better for the Bears then Favre did for the Jets.

11
by Charlie (not verified) :: Mon, 07/13/2009 - 5:23pm

Do the odds in Vegas like the Bears to win the NFC? The first two sites I googled had them as 5th/ 6th favourites in the conference:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN/betting/e/366427/NFC.html

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