RSS Feed
NOW ON SALE
Click here to buy PDF version
.Click here to buy printed copy.
STILL AVAILABLE
Click here to buy PDF version
.Click here to buy printed copy.
15 Jul 2009
FOA 09 MEDIA: New England One-a-Days
Over the next few days, Boston Globe megablogger Mike Reiss will post observations I gave him based on research from the New England chapter of the FO Almanac. The first one has to do with the shotgun formation and quarterback value, and I'll post the other ones in this spot as they come up.
I remember writing about Matt Cassel's game against the Eagles in Week 3 of the preseason, and thinking that Matt Gutierrez had to have the inside track because he looked so much better.
I haven't seen as much of Cassel as most Patriots fans have, and I'm generally loath to pass judgment on quarterbacks before their time, but the thing that stands out about Cassel to me is that in this point in his career, he makes this ruthlessly efficient offense look clunky and slow ... Gutierrez took his team 99 yards in nine plays for a touchdown, beginning with a long crossing route to Tyson DeVree in which the quarterback stood unflappable in the pocket in his own end zone, waiting for the play to develop ... overall, my impression was that Gutierrez looked far more comfortable in command of the New England offense.
So much for MY analysis.
9 comments, Last at 20 Jul 2009, 12:31pm by MJK
Most Recent FO Features
» 2004 NFL Draft: Six Years Later
The 2004 NFL Draft was supposed to be one of the deepest and best ever. Six years later, how does it look? Sean McCormick breaks down the draft, position by position.
Most Recent Extra Points
Comments
Re: FOA 09 MEDIA: New England One-a-Days
The one difference between Gutierrez, O'Connell and Cassel is that Cassel was a fourth-year vet last year, which is easy to forget since we've never seen him play during the regular season. Even if New England's system would boost Gutierrez/O'Connell, it's hard to believe they'd run the system as effectively as Cassel did. They just don't have the experience.
Re: FOA 09 MEDIA: New England One-a-Days
Our data shows that teams are more effective and efficient in the shotgun – over the last two years, teams have averaged 5.9 yards per play from the shotgun, and 5.1 under center.
Shouldn't we see that broken down by play type? I would imagine a much higher percentage of shotgun plays are passes than under center plays.
Re: FOA 09 MEDIA: New England One-a-Days
Teams average more running yards per play from the shotgun than they do from non-shotgun.
Re: FOA 09 MEDIA: New England One-a-Days
but is the dvoa higher? i imagine the rushing ypa from shotgun is higher due to a lot of unsuccessful 3rd and long draws.
Re: FOA 09 MEDIA: New England One-a-Days
We were just talking about yards per play, so this is irrelevant. For what it's worth, I think most teams average a higher DVOA on running plays from the shotgun too.
Re: FOA 09 MEDIA: New England One-a-Days
I would like to see this data in conjunction with the defensive alignment. Meaning, is the shotgun really better for run plays, or does the defense spread more or go to a nickel or dime set.
Re: FOA 09 MEDIA: New England One-a-Days
I think almost ALL Pats fans felt the same way about Cassel and Guitierrez, and we were all wrong. I think one thing we were missing is that, with Brady sidelined in the pre-season, Cassel was getting all the reps with the first team, but was facing all of the 1st team defenses in the pre-season. Guitierrez was facing 2nd and 3rd team defenses. I think in the pre-season, the defense is generally better than the offense (personal opinion), and so facing a 1st team defense hurts more than being out there with the 1st team offense helps.
Re: FOA 09 MEDIA: New England One-a-Days
I agree with MJK's first sentence; I did, and I certainly was. Wrong, that is! To me, the most surprising thing about Cassel was that his execcution "slowness", as Doug puts it -- a certain lethargic quality, which certainly seemed to be one of his most obvious characteristics -- was actually a fully capable analytic engine that was operating at less than game-time speed, because that's all it had to do at the time, during the pre-season games and mop-up situations he was put in. I was astounded to see him quickly be able to rev it up, and still seeming to be completely deliberate and unflustered, go through his checks when he became the QB at twice the speed he'd shown earlier. Full marks to him; that's one smart, capable QB. We should also not forget two other strengths: he throws the fade better than Brady, with a lot of touch; and he's an excellent runner -- way better, for example, than Maroney! (unfair dig, I know)
Re: FOA 09 MEDIA: New England One-a-Days
Good point about the fade.
And I know that as a fan of a team with Randy Moss, I should like the fade.
But I hate it. Probably more than any play except a slow-developing run up the middle on 4th-and-inches or a draw play on 3rd and 20+ when you trail or are tied late in the game. The fade requires a little bit of skill on the part of the QB, a bit more on the part of the WR, and tests a single CB, and nothing the other 19 players on the field do affects its outcome in the slightest. The QB releases the ball long before the O-line has been tested or the defense has had a chance to get to him, and all the other receivers, backs, LB's, and DB's might as well sit cross legged and sing kum-by-yah for the degree to which they affect the play. It's kind of like a foul shot in basketball.
So I kind of like that Brady is incapable of throwing it. My biggest hope for the new elimination of the "force out" rule was that it would reduce the number of times teams call the fade. Sadly, this did not seem the case.
Post new comment