06 Aug 2009
18to88.com links us to a downloadable version of Aaron's interview with Derek Schultz of XL 950 in Indianapolis.
They also dare question our infallible injury research, noting that Colts' starters missed 64 games and that it would have been extremely difficult for them to only accrue 6.4 AGL over the rest of the season.
Of course, we make plenty of mistakes and are constantly adding and adjusting injury information -- I spent nine hours on Sunday, for one, heading through the Wayback Machine for 1998 IR data. (You, too, can be a Football Outsiders writer! Just write to...)
In this case, it's a simple misinterpretation of how AGL works. 18to88.com assumed that a player that missed a game was credited with one point of AGL, and that's not the case.
A player that is listed as Out or on IR/PUP is credited with 1 AGL, regardless of whether he misses the game or not. (Something like 99.8% of all players listed as Out actually do miss games.) A starter listed as Questionable, though, is assigned .38 AGL, regardless of whether he actually does play or not, because starters listed as Questionable end up playing 62% of the time.
And, to provide a resource, we have the Colts' starters credited for 69 missed games. They include:
- Mike Pollak (missed three games where he would've started had he been healthy)
- Joseph Addai (4)
- Gary Brackett (4)
- Dallas Clark (1)
- Tyjuan Hagler (7)
- Marvin Harrison (1)
- Kelvin Hayden (6)
- Marlin Jackson (9)
- Freddy Keiaho (2)
- Ryan Lilja (16)
- Gijon Robinson (1)
- Bob Sanders (10)
- Jeff Saturday (4)
- Tony Ugoh (1)
12 comments, Last at 08 Aug 2009, 11:34pm by Bobman
Possibly the closest Super Bowl matchup in history also poses the question: how much does it mean when certain aspects of an NFL team improve dramatically in the second half of the season?