Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

15 Jan 2009

Jim Schwartz to Coach Detroit Lions

Congratulations to our favorite coordinator. He likes a challenge, and it is hard to imagine a larger one. We're really, really hoping that the people in the front office who pick the talent are a big improvement over Matt Millen -- even though they worked under him the past few years. We also hope this means a nice promotion (in Tennessee or moving to Detroit) for our favorite quality control guy and linebackers coach, Matt Burke.

Somewhere today, Michael David Smith is doing a little happy dance. Actually, it may be a very large happy dance.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 15 Jan 2009

40 comments, Last at 20 Jan 2009, 4:55pm by bravehoptoad

Comments

1
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 4:57pm

My condolences to Jim Schwartz and his family. The only thing worse than living in Detroit, is having to coach the Lions.

2
by Bcube1789 (not verified) :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 5:00pm

Whoo hoo!

What's the weird feeling I have? I actually applaud a move made by the honolulu blue and silver?

Between this and trading Roy Williams for three picks, the Lions have made more solid moves in six weeks than Millen made in six years.

May the Schwartz be with us!

5
by Bobman :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 5:05pm

Bcube, if Mel Brooks has not already trademarked that one, you better do it before Chris Berman steals it.

Here's hoping the Schwartz is with all long-suffering Lions fans. I survived Indy's 1-15 season with relative sanity. Things get better.

3
by zlionsfan :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 5:03pm

Wait ... this might actually make sense.

Is Mr. Ford on vacation? If so, maybe he could stay there.

4
by JD (not verified) :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 5:04pm

This is good news.

Fun fact: the Lions could have the biggest year-to-year improvement ever in total number of wins next season, and still miss the playoffs.

6
by Bobman :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 5:07pm

Not in the NFC N

8
by tuluse :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 5:17pm

Really? This is the first year in the past 4 that the winner hasn't had at least at least 11 wins. The Bears, Packers, and Vikings are all probably just a small improvement from being 11-5 or better. It's not like this is one of the west divisions.

15
by Bobman :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 6:51pm

This year, especially, it seemed to have a ton of parity and when playing outside the division, didn't look too studly. Rodgers should improve in GB. Not sure what MN can do with the current QB situation (is TJax the answer?) Purple Jesus cannot do too much more to help and their D can't improve too much. Bears? Shrug. And if the Lions steal wins from those other guys, to me it spells a division full of teams within 2 games of 8-8.

And what were the records of the NFC wildcard teams the past few years? 10 wins? 9?

Dolphins improved by 10 games this year and made the playoffs, Indy jumped from 3-13 to 13-3 in 1999 and got a second seed (for all the good it did them).

I'd assume that if the Lions won 10 games, they'd be in the playoffs, one way or another.

22
by Alvin Mullins (not verified) :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 9:31pm

Got to remember that includes 2 wins a piece from the Detroit "no longer winless" Lions. As a Titan fan congrats!

25
by Love is like a bottle of gin (not verified) :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 11:09pm

Probably not in any division missing the playoffs at 12-4 just doesn't happen.

14
by Balaji (not verified) :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 6:51pm

True, I guess when you have zero wins, even one win would represent an infinitely large improvement (as a percentage).

19
by MJK :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 7:53pm

How big is the biggest improvement ever? The Dolphins imprived 10 wins this past year, so you'd need at least 11 to have the biggest ever. Has there ever been a team that improved more?

If 11 is the answer, then, mathematically, yes, the Lions could go 11-5 and miss the playoffs. Of course, mathematically, I think it is possible to go 14-2 and miss the playoffs. (I don't *think* it's possible at 15-1, because it would require at least three other teams to also go 15-1 in your conference, which fells like too many wins. However, I haven't worked out the scenarios to be sure).

But in any case, missing the playoffs at 14-2 is certainly possible. So any team with 3 wins or fewer this past year could have the biggest year-to-year improvement and miss the playoffs.

I just don't think it's very likely. The Patriots are the first team under the current playoff/division structure to ever miss the playoffs with 11 wins, and the stars had to align for it to be so. The chances of it happening again next year, in a particular division, exactly when the Lions hypothetically have the biggest improvement ever...well, they aint very good.

26
by Devin McCullen (not verified) :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 11:40pm

Right, you can't miss the playoffs at 15-1, because you'd need 5 teams to be ahead of you - your division winner, 2 wild cards, and their 2 division winners.

However, you could be the 6th seed and wind up playing the championship game at a 3-13 division winner.

27
by Bobman :: Fri, 01/16/2009 - 1:40am

I feel so dirty just having read your post.

If that ever did happen, I predict a realignment of the planets, and probably the NFL's playoff policy would ensue. Unless the 3-13 team won.....

7
by Justin Zeth :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 5:15pm

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

WHY, JIM, WHY!?!?!

9
by dancingeek@gmail.com :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 5:30pm

This is good news for Chargers fans since it means that Ron Rivera didn't get the job and will therefore be back to run the defense =D

10
by lionsbob :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 5:34pm

The guy I hope we would get.

Now lets put together a coaching staff...

11
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 6:25pm

I had VLC on "allways on top" when i refreshed the front page. I could therefore only see "artz to coach the Lions". I emmidiately assumed an "M" in front of that. Then i remembered that Millen had been fired...

12
by navin :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 6:38pm

Why would Martz be a bad hire? St. Louis is much worse since he left. Both Detroit and SF had better offenses when he was working with those teams.

35
by dryheat (not verified) :: Fri, 01/16/2009 - 1:25pm

I think the short answer is that he's an a@@hole.

Whatever the coaching equivalent of a locker room cancer, that's him. Fairly or not, he has the reputation of undercutting and/or sandbagging the head coach.

40
by bravehoptoad :: Tue, 01/20/2009 - 4:55pm

Unfairly, to judge by what Singletary said about him.

13
by hector :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 6:49pm

Will Jim Schwartz become the first person to coach the Lions and then get another head coaching job in the NFL, later in life? Ballsy move, but I'm impressed with him to this point.

17
by Robo-Hochuli (not verified) :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 7:35pm

So Dick Jauron's stint as interim HC never happened?

24
by Israel P. - Jerusalem (not verified) :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 10:56pm

Doesn't Buddy Parker count?

16
by pcs :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 7:32pm

"It's probably time to find a replacement for Bobby Layne," Schwartz said

I have to admit, this is pretty funny.

28
by Bobman :: Fri, 01/16/2009 - 1:41am

Yes, that was awesome!

34
by dryheat (not verified) :: Fri, 01/16/2009 - 1:22pm

And Eric Hipple weeps

18
by youppitime :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 7:51pm

If Schwarz ever does end up becoming a good head coach, we will look back at his Lion days as we do Belicheck's time in Cleveland.

The ownership/management is too horrible to ever build this team into a contender. Until they fire Millen's underlings and start over there, the NFC North will remain a perennial 3-team race.

32
by zlionsfan :: Fri, 01/16/2009 - 12:34pm

On the other hand, with the same ownership and with Wayne Fontes as coach/GM, the Lions managed to make it to the NFC championship, so anything is possible.

Somehow I'm not entirely sure that actually happened.

20
by kamiyu206 :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 8:00pm

Well, congrats to Jim.

If Lions can win at least 1 game next year, that is an improvement, right?

Quite simply, he took the easist job in the world!

OK, fine, I was joking. Good luck to him.

21
by Independent George :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 8:32pm

If he wins 1 game next year, that's an INFINITE improvement!

29
by Theo :: Fri, 01/16/2009 - 7:44am

So if he wins 2 games, that would be a DOUBLE INFINITE improvement!

30
by Jimmy :: Fri, 01/16/2009 - 9:34am

Laws of Nature....breaking down.....Universe collapsing ... under strain.....of terrible maths......must divide by 'i'........to try to save.........planet!!!!

23
by bengalmike (not verified) :: Thu, 01/15/2009 - 9:32pm

Does he have a son-in-law?

31
by Theo :: Fri, 01/16/2009 - 11:17am

His twins are 7 years old and a daughter is 5 years old. He did not grow up in Utah, so I guess he hasn't.

33
by dryheat (not verified) :: Fri, 01/16/2009 - 1:20pm

And another branch of the Belichick tree is put into position to fail thanks to an incompetent management structure. Good luck, Jim, you deserve better.

39
by ABW (not verified) :: Fri, 01/16/2009 - 5:12pm

Why is Schwartz part of the Belichick tree and not, say, the Ted Marchibroda tree? After all, he was defensive coordinator under Marchibroda and just some kind of scout/research guy for Belichick? Does Belichick have a tree because he's won a Super Bowl? Because he's had a few coordinators go on to become head coaches? If so, how many coordinators becoming head coaches does it take to start a tree? One? Two?

The whole "coaching tree" thing is getting a bit ridiculous in my opinion. Is there any indication that Schwartz shares any kind of football philosophy or approach with Belichick, or is the only connection that he happened to work with Belichick 15 years ago?

36
by Scott P. (not verified) :: Fri, 01/16/2009 - 1:34pm

May the Schwartz be with you!

37
by Arson55 :: Fri, 01/16/2009 - 2:22pm

Damn you, Lions. I wanted you to take Garrett off of our hands for us.

As for Jim Schwartz, congratulations...I guess.

38
by andy (not verified) :: Fri, 01/16/2009 - 2:47pm

lets see if schwartz' use of advanced stats will help him? perhaps he'll use FO data for the rebuilding project in evaluating college talent?

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