Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

31 May 2009

Offensive Efficiency A Priority For Ravens

Mike Preston's article in the Baltimore Sun today notes that Cam Cameron wants to see his offense improve in the red zone and on third down in 2009.

Noble goals, sure, but likely? Not really. The red zone offense was 20th in the league, which is reasonable, but they were 19th in the league overall, so it's not like they were really playing much worse in the red zone than they were anywhere else.

As for third down? They'll find that one extremely difficult. Baltimore was 27th in the league on first down, and 16th on second down, but was seventh in the league on third and fourth down, thanks to a spectacular job of running in short-yardage. It's more likely that the team will regress on third down in 2009, not improve.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 31 May 2009

9 comments, Last at 02 Jun 2009, 3:38pm by Chocolate City

Comments

1
by Raiderjoe :: Sun, 05/31/2009 - 3:06pm

Ravebns get LJ Smith now so now have two good Tes they can throw to when near end zone. So maybe Ravnes can improve a little bit whith end zone sityations.
maybe get a little bit better on 1st downws but get worse on other downs. Added m Birk and LJ Smith. Joe Flacco in 2nd year now. Lets see add good center, another Te, Qb more comfortabnle, others on offense returning. all adds up to better on 1st downs and end zone situatons. 23rd down due to be worse becausue law of average

8
by Anonymous Coward (not verified) :: Mon, 06/01/2009 - 12:30pm

At this point in their careers I don't think replacing Jason Brown with Matt Birk is an upgrade

2
by Tom Kelso (not verified) :: Sun, 05/31/2009 - 3:10pm

So, either Cameron is putting a giant bulls eye on the back of his second-year quarterback as the source of improvement; third-and-long conversions being a result of pass plays -- or Preston has once again cherry-picked quotes to conform to his opinions and views on what the Ravens should be doing.

Because I will wager that he has NO idea just how well the Raven offense performed in those situations, but rather is just repeating the tired old meme that the only reason this team ever wins is because of the defense.

OK, so it is only June -- but why does this clown ever get a link?

3
by Raiderjoe :: Sun, 05/31/2009 - 4:11pm

re: Tom Kelso

Any relation to old Bills player Makr Kelso?

4
by Tom Kelso (not verified) :: Sun, 05/31/2009 - 7:48pm

Nope, RJ -- Gazoo (due to his unusual concussion-proof helmet) and I share nothing but a last name.

I did feel sorry for him watching him chase all those receivers into the end zone in various Super Bowls -- apparently the only way you can make a Kelso fast is by gelding -- and I am NOT that eager to win a race!

9
by Chocolate City (not verified) :: Tue, 06/02/2009 - 3:38pm

You couldn't geld Mark Kelso. He was virility personified. Even his helmet looked like a penis.

5
by greybeard :: Mon, 06/01/2009 - 12:42am

If most of their 3rd downs were short distances and as a result they converted at a high rate, that means that they were good at first and second downs which put them in a good position to convert third downs, and does not necessarily mean that they were good on third down.

Also the linked article says they were 15th on converting 3r downs, not seventh. And 25th in red zone not 20th.
I guess they must be seventh based on DVOA. Maybe Cam Cameron does not give a rat's ass about DVOA and considers his team as 15th and see possibility of improvements there.

7
by Matt W (not verified) :: Mon, 06/01/2009 - 9:43am

Good point about the difference between DVOA and conventional conversion rate. I could be wrong about this, but if they were seventh on 3rd down according to DVOA and 15th on conventional conversion rate, doesn't that suggest that they were facing longer-than-average third downs? Which would in turn suggest that they could improve their conventional conversion rate by getting better on first and second down.

6
by jonnyblazin :: Mon, 06/01/2009 - 1:24am

They might regress on 3rd down rushing efficiency, but LeRon McClain could end up being a very good short yardage back. He's got Bettis-like footwork, but can't outrun anyone (except the Cowboys, of course) so will never post an elite DVOA.

Their passing efficiency might improve due to having Oher at RT, Willie Anderson was good against the run but always need help in pass protection. TEs and RBs can run more pass patterns - don't have to waste time blocking - if Oher is good.

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