Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

04 Nov 2009

Sharper for MVP?

Matt Bowen at the National Football Post is picking Darren Sharper as his mid-season MVP.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 04 Nov 2009

51 comments, Last at 05 Nov 2009, 5:47pm by Phil O'sopher

Comments

1
by whatyousay :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 12:21pm

It's a tricky idea as to what it really means to be MVP. Sharper has provided an absurd amount of value from his position. But could you really claim he is more responsible for his team's success than Brees?

3
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 12:25pm

The only reason Sharper can play like he does is because of Brees. Sheesh, a lot of football writers are dumb.

2
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 12:23pm

Matt Bowen must live in a universe where defending the run is not a major part of a saftey's job'

21
by Rich Conley (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 3:03pm

I'm not sure it is important in the modern NFL, especially when you have a good offense.

24
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 3:24pm

Less important, yes. Not important, no.

23
by Sophandros :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 3:22pm

Strong Safeties, yes. Free Safeties? Not as important.

The main reasons for the Saints' turnaround on defense are Gregg Williams, Darren Sharper, Jabari Greer, and STAYING RELATIVELY HEALTHY. Williams wouldn't be able to run his scheme without players like Sharper, Greer, and Porter (he was injured most of last season), and Sharper wouldn't be able to excel in a different scheme.

That said, I think that if a Saint wins, it will be Brees.

-------------
Sports talk radio and sports message boards are the killing fields of intellectual discourse.

25
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 3:26pm

Sharper can't excel without Brees. The reverse is not true.

4
by Joseph :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 12:26pm

I am a Saints fan, but I don't think he gets MVP. I think it goes to Brees or Manning. Brady, F...., Peterson, Benson (as the author mentions him), Big Ben, et al--are just jockeying for 2nd/3rd.
I do think, however, Sharper has to have SERIOUS consideration for DPOY. Remember, besides all the picks, including 3 pick-sixes, he LOST another pick-six on a legitimate roughing-the-passer-blow-to-the-head penalty vs. the Jets. I mean, unless Dumervil/Allen get around 20 sacks, or Sharper doesn't get another pick all year, doesn't it go to Sharper?
Legitimate question for anyone--don't know if you could find it on pfr--what is the record for most defensive TD's in a season (player & team)? I know the record for picks is 14 (by Dick Lane, IIRC).
Aside--Does the NFL have an award for Coach of the Year for NON-HEAD COACHES? (coordinator of the year???) If there is, Gregg Williams HAS TO BE running away with it. If the Saints didn't have such a great offense, GW might be in the running for the regular Coach of the Year award.

5
by Arkaein :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 12:40pm

I think Derrick Brooks at least tied the record at 4 for Tampa Bay. Not positive though.

10
by ammek :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 1:24pm

Ken Houston had five for the Oilers in 1971. I think that's the most since the merger.

14
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 2:27pm

Indeed. All-time leader too:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/Z6ckc

Just for the record: The Mike Vrabels and Deion Sanders of the world are discarted...

19
by Doug Farrar :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 2:58pm

I really thought Polamalu should have been MVP last season. Actually, there were about five defensive players I thought had a good case. At this point, I'd almost say "fuhgeddaboudit" when it comes to a defensive MVP.

Williams has done a great job, but how can Mike Nolan not be in that argument? Has there ever been a bigger single-season defensive turnaround than Denver's?

28
by jmaron :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 3:34pm

A defensive MVP will only happen if in a given season there are no really outstanding offensive performers and some defensive guy happens to put up some unheard of number in sacks or interceptions.

The only reason anyone would start talking about Sharper is that he has a bunch of pick 6's. If he ends up getting the same number in the 2nd half he will likely get a bunch of votes.

6
by Podge (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 12:47pm

I'd say that MVP at midseason is probably Brees; its close between him and Manning, but Brees has dominated in two big games (Philly and NYG) against playoff opposition.

The winner of MVP will be the QB of the team that finishes with the better record out of the Colts, Saints and Vikings.

22
by Spoon :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 3:11pm

Brees has had some stinkers as well, though, against the Bills, Jets and Dolphins. In the first two his Y/A was under six, and while it was two yards more against Miami he also threw three picks. Against Buffalo it was the running game that gained 222 and three touchdowns. Against the Jets it was the defense getting four turnovers, two of which resulted in defensive TDs. Against Miami the defense again scored twice, and added a fumble recovery, after the Saints had dug themselves a deep hole. It's the picking of nits to be sure, but over all seven games I think it becomes hard to argue that Brees has been as consistent as Manning.

33
by Bobman :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 4:37pm

Yeah, it sounds very Heismanish, but look at the consistency--Manning's WORST game was 374 yards and no picks. Plus he's doing it without his #2 WR. Plus he has little run support. Brees cannot make the same claims with his run game and WR staff and he's had a few stinkers. (I'm not saying NO pass catchers are better than Indy's, I am just saying that their guys are all out there while Manning is without his second best guy.)

Brees has better "big game" performance but Manning has had no "big games" yet.

That said, I suspect #4 in purple will have something to say about this race before it's all over. Yes he has a top RB on his side, but he may be playing his best ball ever. And if they go 15-1.... who is to say what voters will decide if it's a 3-way crapshoot?

34
by tuluse :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 4:42pm

Would they really give a player 4 MVPs when he already has the record with 3?

37
by Bobman :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 4:58pm

If Brees gets hurt, I'd say it's inevitable one way or ther other this year.

That's only 8 weeks of data, but with both their O's and D's performing very well, both teams with great records, I don't see what would stop Manning or Favre (aside from Brees, Brady, Rivers, Ben R, Schaub, etc continuing on or getting on major hot streaks).

40
by Gruntled (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 5:49pm

There's something of a social phenomena that may increase F's chances if he continues to play at his current level and the Vikings continue to win.

It's a combination of "I was so wrong!" and "He's 40 years old, it's such a great story!". And for both he and Manning, there is the 'unprecedented 4th MVP award!'

I still think Brees will probably get it, but if he falters or gets injured, then watch out.

7
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 12:50pm

Replay some of Sharper's attempts to tackle decent running backs before giving him Defensive Player of the Year.

30
by Oscar (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 3:51pm

Great point. TD returns, while having a huge impact, are a part of the game. Nobody in their right mind would say Sharper is as good as a Troy Polamalu.

8
by Tim F. (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 1:01pm

I know its just one play, but he took an awful angle at the line on one of Turner's TD's the other night.

11
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 1:41pm

He takes those angles with frequency. It is why the Vikings didn't offer him a new contract. If the Saints lose in the playoffs, there's a good chance it will happen because their opponent jumps out to a lead, and then runs the ball in a fashion that forces Sharper to try to make tackles, or even just slow a running back down, in a way that mercilessly exposes this major weakness in his game.

13
by JoeHova :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 2:05pm

Sometimes people worry too much about what a guy can't do rather than what he can. The Vikings were stupid to play a non-tackler like Sharper in a run-support role but that doesn't mean he has no role on a team. Very few players have no weaknesses. Good coaching means finding a way to hide weaknesses and emphasize strengths. The Saints have found a way to do that with Sharper and are reaping the rewards. Sharper is one of the all-time best pass interceptors in NFL history. The Saints realized that and gave him a role intended to take advantage of that skill. The Vikings didn't and didn't.

17
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 2:42pm

I didn't say he had no role on a team. Id was taking issue with the notion that a safety who is basically awful (not merely below average) at run suppport could be a good pick for Defensive Player of the Year. I congratulate the Saints for recognizing that they have the sort of team where Sharper's glaring weakness is much less important, which means that they can maximize his value. The Vikings, especially before they knew they would have an elderly Zombie King playing quarterback, didn't have any reason to think that their roster was such that Sharper's glaring weakness would be minimized as much.

18
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 2:50pm

Actually, a better way of stating it is that unless one is pretty certain that one has a high scoring offense which frequently forces the opposing offense to become pass-happy, one really can't be confident that Sharper's real strengths as a player will come to the forefront. A team which starts Tavaris Jackson at qb just doesn't have that luxury.

32
by JoeHova :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 4:00pm

Fair enough.

41
by mm (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 6:32pm

He takes those angles with frequency. It is why the Vikings didn't offer him a new contract. If the Saints lose in the playoffs, there's a good chance it will happen because their opponent jumps out to a lead, and then runs the ball in a fashion that forces Sharper to try to make tackles, or even just slow a running back down, in a way that mercilessly exposes this major weakness in his game.

He has taken bad angles for the Saints before this game, too. If I remember correctly, on the Dolphins' big pass play in the second half last week, he took the wrong angle to make a tackle and gave up a big play.

The run defense is a weakness of the Saints, with a 5.5% DVOA (of course, the special teams are worse!). However, I think it will be difficult for a team to only run against the Saints. Greg Williams has given the defense an 'anti-Tampa 2' mentality. While the Tampa 2 sits back and forces you to slowly drive up the field and wait for you to make a mistake, Greg Williams has his team aggressively attacking the run or the pass (whatever he thinks you're apt to do). Either you hit them for a big play (and score quickly) or you're hit for a loss and turn the ball over with a punt or a turnover. Either way, you don't get too many long drives (in terms of # of plays) against the Saints. The offense gets the ball back quickly either way. So even when the offense is in a funk, it gets plenty of opportunities to get itself back on track.

Saints time of possession against the Dolphins-33:02
Colts time of possession against the Dolphins-14:03
(both come from behind victories)

9
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 1:21pm

Is E Dumervill for MVP huge homerism on my part?

DPOY then?

12
by tuluse :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 1:46pm

I haven't seem much of Saints games outside of highlights, but the two most impressive defensive players I've seen this year are Jerad Allen and Patrick Willis. Willis is quickly becoming my favorite non-Bear.

15
by Oscar (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 2:29pm

I can't believe nobody has mentioned Dwight Freeney.

20
by Anonymous Coward (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 3:01pm

Agree on Freeney, I think people putting Jared Allen ahead of him has something to do with the nationally televised game effect where he had a lot of his sacks in nationally televised games.

Also after a slow start James Harrison had a strong October and has a shot.

31
by tuluse :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 3:59pm

Allen plays the run and the offense he's going against doesn't have to worry about keeping up with Peyton Manning.

35
by Bobman :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 4:44pm

What are the run stats against Freeney versus Allen? I'd like to know what giant wall of humanity Freeney has stuffing runs next to him. I'd argue that Freney HAS TO play the run more than Allen (because of his DL compatriots' relatively diminutive size) and I'd like to see evidence otherwise. Not just worn-out opinions.

Oh, and an offense that is keeping up with AP and #4 doesn't have scoring concerns of their own? Vikes average 30.5 PPG while the Colts average 28.1. (While that DOES include any D and ST TDs, all scores count, so the 30.5 and 28.1 PPG numbers are directly contradictory to what you stated.)

I think both your arguments are weak. Please take your tired cliches elsewhere.

38
by tuluse :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 4:58pm

Indy has a higher offensive DVOA, but the teams are pretty close. However, I think there is a different mentality when playing the Colts, and Peyton and Wayne scare teams more than Favre and AP.

Both teams are actually terrible at runs to left tackle (Indy is 29th and Min is 30th). However, my eye test is that Allen has been playing the run effectively, I could be wrong.

Minnesota has a better adjusted sack rate at 8.6% compared to Indy's is 7.6%.

I guess both players are pretty close to each other, I've just seen a lot more of Allen this year.

50
by Bobman :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 5:08pm

In truth, the whole country has seen more of Allen--two national, high-profile games in which he racks up 7.5 sacks?? Get real! What a joy to watch.

Of course, the flipside is that with 75% of his production in two games, what are his measurables in the other 5 or 6? Not MVP-like, but surely productive (hurries, a safety, TD off a fumble IIRC, etc).

I like Freeney's consistency--8 games in a row with a sack. Despite having an injury that was supposed to keep him out 2-3 weeks as he limped off to the locker room after the 3Q in one game, he's been out there with limited snaps while healing.

What would be interesting is if they meet in the SB--two HOF QBs, two of the top DEs over the last half decade. They could actually draw cameras and viewer eyes off the QBs--now how many casual SB-type fans watch only the QB in a game like that? I could see some attrition and people talking the next day at work about bull-rushes and spin and swim moves.... could be fun.

16
by Yaguar :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 2:30pm

I think Tom Brady should be MVP because he won Superbowls a while ago and has stats almost as good as those of Brees or Manning.

My argument is airtight.

27
by Oscar (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 3:30pm

Can't we go with the top ranked fantasy football QB?

36
by Bobman :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 4:46pm

I find a flaw with your argument. What you mean to say is that any QB who has Adam Vinatieri on his team should get the MVP, no?

Test the hypothesis: trade AV to Oakland (for, say, Richard Seymour) and see if Russell wins.

43
by Gruntled (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 10:05pm

If you had only used your caplocks key and added several exclamation points, I believe I would have been convinced.

26
by jmaron :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 3:30pm

I think the fact that a guy like Sharper can be essentially let go by one team and be mentioned as an MVP the very next year just shows you how difficult it is to ascertain an individual players contribution to his team.

Such things don't happen in other sports. Guys don't get cut and become the MVP in baseball, basketball or hockey.

I think football far more than the other professional sports in North America is about the GM's and Coaches. I for one would trade any player in the league for Bill Polian or Bill Belichick. Heck I'd trade any two for one of those guys.

29
by Sifter :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 3:41pm

7 good plays gets you an MVP trophy? I hope not. Why not Jairus Byrd for MVP?

You can argue Sharper's been the best safety this year, but so what? Safety's get crap money because they aren't too important. But apparently they're MVP worthy...

And why Cedric Benson is getting up there in MVP chat I'll never know. He's run the ball well, but like Sharper he has holes in his game: catching the ball and blocking. Plus he's a RB, good for fantasy and finishing NFL games. Ricky Williams would be the counter example, has run well AND has done the other facets better. Or MJD.

In fact maybe they should have separate categories, the fantasy MVP for the mugs who live in fantasy football world every week and the 'real' MVP for linemen or defenders. Then you'd get some interesting nominees, like Justin Smith, Nick Mangold, Jahri Evans, Dwight Freeney, Darrelle Revis, Antione Winfield, Patrick Willis and James Harrison.

47
by RickD :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 4:05pm

Safeties.

Plurals, people!

51
by Phil O'sopher (not verified) :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 5:47pm

I disagree. Many safties are the signal and audible callers for the entire defense. They remind me of a shortstop. You can say we can play w/o one, but damn if the best fielder should be playing there.

Sharper has had a great year so far. Remember he called out Sanchize before the game saying he could read where the ball was going and made him look just horrible. If he goes for 12 ints and returns 5 of them I think he should get some consideration. Obviously, Brees and Manning will be the main candidates w/ Favarre (if he is still alive by then) getting mentions.

Impact safties are important. they are your LB/CB hybrid, if you will.

39
by Dunbar (not verified) :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 5:02pm

Sharper really is having a great season, and shows just how important a great safety can be to a defense. It seems like the vast majority of deep touchdowns come when a corner passes off his receiver and expects safety help over the top, but the safety just doesn't get there for whatever reason (not enough range, didn't react quickly enough, etc.). With Sharper on the field, quarterbacks have to think twice about throwing that deep ball because if they mistime it just a little, it could very well be picked off and returned for a touchdown. Not many safeties can strike fear into quarterbacks like that.

Nonetheless, I would not even consider Sharper for the DPOY at the end of the season, much less MVP, unless he keeps up the completely ridiculous pace at which he is making pick-sixes. Since he probably won't, my (uncounted and irrelevant) vote will most likely go to whomever I think is the most dominant pass-rusher in the league. There is nothing more important to a defense than a good pass rush. I doubt anyone could name a great defense that didn't have one, whereas I could name you plenty of great defenses that didn't have great secondaries. Unless Sharper or some other DB puts up an all-time great performance at his position, the vote has to go to a pass-rusher.

48
by RickD :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 4:09pm

"There is nothing more important to a defense than a good pash rush".

I've always thought stopping the run was the most important thing for a defense.
If you cannot stop the run, your pass-rushing specialists will be blown away from the line while the other team rakes in the rushing yards.

42
by Raiderjoe :: Wed, 11/04/2009 - 7:55pm

Brees moe important to Saints than Sharper and also Brees more valauble. Sharper maybe #3 mVp behind Brees and Petton Manning.

44
by peachy (not verified) :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 7:23am

The last non-QB/RB to win any version of the MVP was Rice in 1987, the last defensive player Taylor in 1986; really, if you're not in the offensive backfield for a playoff team, your chances are pretty poor. (The commenter who called it "Heisman-ish" was actually being a touch kind - since '86, the Heisman has gone to receivers twice and to a corner once.)

45
by Peyton Ain't Nobody Manning (not verified) :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 12:08pm

It will be a complete travesty if Peyton Manning does not win the MVP this year. To illustrate the value that Peyton brings to the colts, imagine Matt Hasselbek (~0 DVOA) throwing the ball to Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Now imagine Hasselbeck as the QB of the Saints. In this universe the Saints are conceivably still 7-0 (or maybe 6-1 if they lose the scare against Miami), while the Colts are at best a middling 4-3. Nothing against Collie or Garcon, but they are the most recent in a long line of receivers who enjoy superb production in the Manning system. Turning guys like Brandon Stokley or Anthony Gonzalez into great receivers is something that the likes of Brees (or even the mighty Tom Brady) will never be able to claim.

46
by tuluse :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 1:04pm

You seem to be forgetting Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.

Also, I think you underestimating the pressure the Saints put on other teams with their offense.

49
by Sifter :: Thu, 11/05/2009 - 4:40pm

"Turning guys like Brandon Stokley or Anthony Gonzalez into great receivers is something that the likes of Brees (or even the mighty Tom Brady) will never be able to claim"

I'm not sure that's the best argument. I prefer Manning to the other QBs too, but Brees has Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Marques Colston. None of whom had done anything before Brees and none of them were expected to be awesome either based on potential and draft position. He DOES have a former 1st rounder in Meacham, but Gonzalez is also a 1st rounder for Manning.

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