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13 Jul 2009
You Play To Run The Ball
As NewsToTom said when sending us this link (check out Total Titans), "I picked up a conveniently-located small object and threw it after I read this quote."
"Boy I'd love to see us run 32-34 times a game where we need to split up the carries a little better," said [Packers' offensive coordinator Joe] Philbin. "We haven’t been that type of a team consistently. We’ve had spurts where we ran it that much but we need to get it up in the 30s on a consistent basis. When that happens the way the game unfolds dictates that you balance it out a little better. When you’re running it 24 times, it’s a little different."
Last year, teams that ran the ball 30 times or more went 134-36. What's wrong with them?
31 comments, Last at 16 Jul 2009, 12:57pm by Mr Shush
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Comments
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
I have no idea what he's saying.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
"We need to run the ball more. We'd be a better team if we ran the ball more." And, indeed, as Bill posted, he's right, teams that run the ball a lot tend to win a lot. See The Establishment Clause, about the first article ever posted on FO.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
I was really hoping this was Herm related.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
Not gonna lie, the exact same thing was going through my head as I clicked on the link.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
Has there ever been a coach or offensive coordinator who has said the opposite? "No, I think we need to pass a bit more. I'd like to see us pass 40 times a game." I tend to give comments such as Philbin's as much credibility as, say, a politician who announces he is going to increase spending on education or public transport.
Yeah, right.
All of which is designed to deflect two questions:
1) Why did the Packers continue to give Ryan Grant 85 percent of running-back carries through Week 16, even though he was averaging less than four yards a pop (and, allegedly, playing hurt)?
2) Why the heck is Joe Philbin an offensive coordinator in the NFL?
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
Perhaps they thought they were getting his brother Regis?
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
If only. He'd insist that the offense be made up entirely of former Notre Dame players.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
In the pros? Perhaps not. In college? Absolutely - I doubt Leach ever calls a running play without feeling a twinge of disgust and resignation.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
How quickly you've forgotten Mad Mike Martz.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
Mike Martz
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
Mike Leach.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
Andy Reid doesn't seem to bothered by calling 40 pass plays a game regardless of score.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
Yeah, but he still claims he wants to run more usually.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
Is Philbin the play-caller or does McCarthy call the plays?
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
McCarthy calls the plays and dictates the scheme
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
Okay, Mr. Obvious guy is here. Teams that are winning late run the ball a ton. So there is a bit of a co-variance problem with that statistic.
I think what Philbin did to resurrect Favre's career was legendary, so I actually have a lot of respect for the guy. I attribute Ryan Grant's dropoff last year to two things:
(1) Poor Offensive Line Play: Clifton played hurt all year (not that he's an elite run blocker to begin with). The right side of the line was an abysmal 27th in the league on running downs vs. the left side that--despite Cliftons poor play--was about average.
(2) The Defense. The secondary was a train wreck last year and they played without Cullen Jenkins most of the season.
The real question to me is why switch to a 3-4? They don't have the ideal personnel to do it and this defense was ELITE two years ago when they were healthy. It seems like a lot of teams are arbitrarily switching schemes without any mind towards their personnel. If you are the Broncos, who cares (your defense sucks anyway). But this team... baffling.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
As to why the switch to the 3-4: A cynic would say that perhaps it buys McCarthy/TT some time to further extend their contracts. But obviously that can't be true, since GMs and coaches GM and coach for the love of the game, not for the money.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
The Packer D was elite in 2007 when they had 2 more starting quality D-linemen (Williams, who was in a contract year, and Jenkins who was hurt for most of 2008) and were facing opponents who had not yet realized that Bob Sanders' defensive play calls were going to be plain vanilla almost every single time.
The personnel challenge the Packers face in moving to the 3-4 has been greatly exaggerated. The DL and LB turn out to fit the scheme better than initially thought and the aging cornerbacks will be better for occasionally playing zone, Al Harris' bad 40 time notwithstanding.
Most important, Capers knows enough not to make the transition complete in one year. There will be a lot of hybrid looks. I'm getting kind of pumped about it.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
My definition of "elite" is not -0.6% DVOA and a 16th ranked defense.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
It's exactly the other way around.
You run the ball more when you're winning.
Even Bill has it wrong when he says that "teams that ran the ball 30 times or more went 134-36."
Again, the statement might be correct, but the causation is the other way around than how you say it.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
I'm pretty sure Bill was making that point sarcastically
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
I guarantee you he was.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
Sarcasm? There's no sarcasm on the internets!
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
Somebody tell Philbin that it's hard to be offensively balanced when your D sucks so much that you're always playing catch-up.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
Hey Philbin! It's hard to be offensively balanced! When your D sucks so much that you're always! Playing catch-up!
There. I'm sure he heard that.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
IF YOU WANT HIM TO HEAR YOU THEN YOU NEED TO SHOUT
He is far away.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
Caps lock is cruise control for cool.
But you still have to steer.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
I remember McCarthy said almost the same thing last summer too, but I don't think they want to run the ball 30 times a game for the sake of running the ball 30 times a game. I think what they're trying to say is that they want their running game to be more effective in general. It's not just some BS about 'establishing the run,' they couldn't even run the ball with any consistency late in games last year in which they were ahead like against Seattle and Indianapoolis if I remember correctly.
At least, as a Packers fan, I HOPE that's what they really mean
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
It's worth noting that in 2007 when the team was really good and won a load of games, they ran the ball less often (as a percentage of offensive plays) than in 2008. This has to mean that either McCarthy, despite his OC's protests, is not terribly fussed about running a "balanced" offense, or the running game has sucked for a while and the coaches don't feel comfortable going to it as much as they would like - in which scenario Philbin's comments would seem quite reasonable. To put it another way, he might really be saying: "We'd like to run more, but for that to happen we'd have to get better at running. Hopefully, that will be the case."
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
In 2007 the proportion of running plays called by McCarthy was much higher than the running plays actually executed - because the QB at that time was more experienced and had the "right" to audible into the best available pass, and (what should come as no surprise ) often did so,
In 2009, Rodgers was essentially a rookie and was tasked to stay with the play call. With experience, he will be able to do more audibles.
That said, I agree with your translation of what Philbin actually *meant*.
Re: You Play To Run The Ball
Good point on the audibles - I hadn't thought of that.
Much as I love this site, read it religiously, believe DVOA to be by far the best team/unit metric available, lend considerable credence to their season projections etc. etc. etc, I do sometimes detect a tendency in the writers to set up straw men to tear down with their pet theories, and the "establish the run myth" is a prime example. I don't think coaches usually mean by "establish the run" (and similar phrases) what the FO staff often take them as meaning.
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