Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

28 Dec 2010

2010 Pro Bowl Rosters

The initial Pro Bowl rosters are out. Who do you think got snubbed?

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 28 Dec 2010

205 comments, Last at 31 Dec 2010, 11:24pm by Raiderjoe

Comments

1
by Rich Arpin (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:04pm

Was that you raiderjoe over at the nfl site saying McFadden was snubbed for Charles.

As a pats fan nice to see McCourty getting recognized.

the AFC looks built to run a 34 but the NFC only has 43 mlb's with 34 olbs. interesting who will play coverage. I don't think Ware is as good in coverage as Madden 10 gives him credit for.

9
by Marko :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:16pm

Honestly, who cares about the actual game? And not all of the NFC's OLBs are from 3-4 defenses; Lance Briggs plays in a 4-3 defense.

11
by Rich Arpin (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:21pm

Yes, I missed that Lance Briggs thing. As to your the rest of your response, can you explain to me why you're in this thread if the game has no meaning to you?

25
by Marko :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:34pm

Like most all-star games, the Pro Bowl is much more about the honor of being selected than the actual result of the game. The strategy of the game is not important, and neither is the result of the game to most people (including the players). Do you remember who won the Pro Bowl 4 years ago? Do you care?

But it is interesting to discuss who deserves the honor and who doesn't.

28
by Rich Arpin (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:37pm

Great points, I never thought about it in the being honored sense.

34
by Sander :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:52pm

Players get about $50,000 for a win, about $25,000 for a loss in the Pro Bowl. The Pro Bowl is a joke of a game early on, but it'll heat up late in the contest as they try to pull in that money.

69
by IsraelP (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 10:54pm

Don't some players have bonuses in their contracts for Pro Bowl selections?

90
by Semigruntled Eagles fan (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 2:34am

Yes, and being selected to a Pro Bowl can affect conditional picks offered in trades as well - e.g. if McNabb had played 70% of Washington's snaps (which he almost certainly has met) and made the Pro Bowl, the Eagles would have received their 3rd round draft pick instead of their 4th. I don't know if that condition would be satisfied if, say, six QBs pulled out from the Pro Bowl due to "injury," as well as the QB whose team made it to the Super Bowl, and McNabb made it as the 9th best in the conference... (but one can hope, right?)

173
by Key19 :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 8:36pm

You're missing the main issue which is the fact that the Redskins had to also make the Playoffs for that bump in return compensation to apply, and they certainly did not achieve that.

153
by dryheat :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 1:50pm

Indeed. In fact, the best recommendation I've read regarding the Pro Bowl in recent years is to not actually play the game. Name the rosters, pay a bonus, maybe reward the players and their families with a Hawai'i vacation, but skip that exercise in football-like product.

156
by PatsFan :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 2:26pm

Totally agreed.

2
by Southern Philly :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:05pm

Jason Peters making it is a joke. Jason Babin is almost as bad, but at least he's got counting stats.

5
by Mr Shush :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:11pm

Oh, God, yeah, if the Eagles games I've seen are anything to go by their pass-blocking in general is pretty poor and Peters is a major culprit.

I know Babin is a one-dimensional player who benefits from a couple of very good tackles inside him, but really, in the AFC, at 4-3 end, who the hell else is there? Suggs should probably be listed as a DE, and that would solve the problem, but as is?

10
by Southern Philly :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:21pm

It's not just that Peters hasn't been Pro Bowl worthy, it's that he keeps getting hurt during games. He's started 12 games and finished like 8 of them. There was a 3 or 4 week stretch where one could accuse him of completely dogging it. It's the most egregious reputation pick.

EDIT: Totally overlooked Logan Mankins being named a starter despite missing half the season. I agree with the poster below, that is a total joke of a selection.

Babin, I knew he was piling up some sacks but I didn't realize he is third in the league. So I stand corrected, it's not a bad pick.

39
by R (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:00pm

While I don't think Mankins should be eligible, he has pretty much completely turned NE's line around. The difference in performance since he came back has been drastic.

47
by Southern Philly :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:06pm

No one's questioning his talent level, it's his huge lack of games played that is the issue.

109
by Otis Taylor89 :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 9:31am

Uh, they were playing pretty well before he got there.

139
by Bobby Wommack (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:27pm

Maybe to the average fan, but every Pat fan knows this season turned around when Mankins came back. The offense was struggling after Moss left, even though nobody remembers that. The Pats put up a good quarter and a half against the Ravens to win; the offense sucked against the Chargers; and put up another good half against the Vikings. Then Makins came back against the Browns and after that, that's when the offense started putting up 30 points a game. It's not a coincidence. The running game also improved drastically, too.

While I don't think Mankins should make the pro bowl, the funny thing is, he only missed 3 more games than Vick did.

146
by DomM (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:54pm

He's also missed only one more game than Ed Reed and three more than Antonio Gates, both of whom are Pro Bowl starters, and two fewer than Shaun O'Hara, who is a backup. I suspect people are picking up an Mankins more because a) he plays for the Patriots and b) his reason for missing games was a contract dispute rather than an injury.

35
by Sander :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:53pm

NFC Offensive Tackle seems like the worst position. Donald Penn for the Bucs has had a very good year, much better than Jordan Gross or Chad Clifton and apparently better than Peters as well. I don't either of the 3 guys they actually sent are deserving.

100
by Sifter :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 5:20am

Exactly right chief. Seems everyone is quick to hop on the Peters suxors bandwagon, but no one seems to be able to name an OT in the NFC that's clearly better.

The other thing with Peters is that he seems to my eyes to play with a style that makes him look worse than his actual results. For example, he doesn't seems to 'lock on' to his rusher very often compared to the other beefier OTs, preferring to dance with them or push them past Vick. And when the rusher isn't locked down, you automatically think the DE is getting pressure. Not always the case.

The other thing with Peters is that the Eagles always run well to the left compared to the right and Peters never really gets talked about in the run game, when he really should be. It's a problem with all left tackle analysis, pundits only seem to care about their pass blocking.

119
by Dean :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 10:45am

Clearly better? Rodger Saffold.

118
by Dean :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 10:45am

Rookies don't tend to make pro bowls, but I thought Rodger Saffold was more deserving than Peters. It's not like 5 years ago - there really isn't any standout LT in the NFC like there was when Pace and Jones had the position on lockdown.

3
by Flounder :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:06pm

Well, the one that immediately jumps out is that Tramon Williams should have gotten in over Woodson.

4
by Mr Shush :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:08pm

Dare I say that overall, with a few exceptions, that actually looks remarkably reasonable. Ryan over Rodgers is a mistake, certainly, and the CB selections look pretty damn questionable across the board to me, and five out of six outside linebackers really have more in common with the ends, but overall . . . really could be an awful lot worse.

I heartily endorse the selection of the three Texans who made it (Johnson and Foster speak for themselves; Leach is a devastating blocker and a very useful outlet receiver). No one else on the team should have gone, though Mario Williams might have belonged had he not gone on IR, even in a bit of a down year through injury, given the weakness of AFC defensive ends in general.

14
by Arkaein :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:25pm

This Packer fan would actually say Brees over Rodgers may be the bigger mistake than Ryan over Rodgers, Brees has has twice as many INTs as Rodgers this season! DYAR is a dead heat between these two though after considering running plays, and after this week Rodgers will clearly be the NFC QB DYAR leader. Also, Vick has been spectacular when he's played, but voters have clearly overlooked all the time he hasn't played compared to other QBs.

I'd also put in Tramon Williams over Charles Woodson (and probably DeAngelo Hall as well based on what I've read, though I don't like taking very strong stances on non-QB/RB/WR/TE positions that I haven't watched extensively). I'm not sure Nick Collins deserved it as much this year as he has previous years, though I couldn't tell you which safeties deserve a spot more.

I don't know if BJ Raji is necessarily a snub, but I think he's putting together a Pro Bowl worthy season. Glad to see Greg Jennings finally get in. He's been on the cusp for a few years now.

For non-Packer players, it looks like Hakeem Nicks was more deserving than DeSean Jackson purely based on WR play and not including special teams. Glad to see Calvin Johnson make it. I thought it was ridiculous when his 1300 yard, 13 TD season with Orlovsky throwing him passes didn't make it.

6
by gunter (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:11pm

Or how about the Cowboys with 4 starters, (tied with ATL for most) I know Romo got hurt and derailed their season a bit but...

7
by MJK :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:12pm

For all the talk of this being the "Pro Bowl", the defense isn't going to be very good, at least on the AFC side. The D-Line has two 3-4 nose tackles who normally play two-gap techniques backed up by 3-4 ILB's, but have undersized pure end rushers at both DE and OLB who aren't very good in pass coverage or run support.

So you'll get lots of pressure on the QB, but good luck stopping runs...or executing zone blitzes...

103
by dryheat :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 9:13am

I don't think blitzing is allowed in the Pro Bowl.

112
by Theo :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 9:51am

4-3 on every play. No blitzing and no bump coverage. And only man I believe.
Offense is restricted too. Rules are probably on wiki or something.

120
by Arkaein :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 10:48am

Pretty sure there's no cut blocking.

152
by MJK :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 1:23pm

And this is silly, given that ten out of the 16 AFC teams run a 3-4, not a 4-3. While we're at it, why don't we have the Pro-Bowl rules (and roster) mandate a single wing? Or have 10 RB slots and only 2 WR slots?

The Pro-Bowl roster and formation they run should reflect what the majority of teams are currently doing.

And does it strike anyone else as odd that the game should have different rules than actual football? Given that sacks are a fairly heavy factor for all positions, including LB and safety and CB, that determine if a player makes it, isn't it weird that LB's and safeties and CB's are functionally not allowed to get sacks in the ProBowl? (If you are forced to play man only and not allowed to blitz, then no zone blitzes and a LB or DB can never be chasing the QB).

158
by Dean :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 3:04pm

That works right up until the moment when a team loses their pro bowl QB to a serious injury because a blitzing LB shot the gap between two OL who have never played next to each other before.

8
by FooBarFooFoo (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:16pm

How can you seriously vote Logan Mankins (I am a Pats fan and like this guy very, very much) into this year's Pro Bowl? The guy held out and missed one third of the season. The voting ended Week 15 ... he missed half of the season up to that point.

What a joke. Look at the rosters. Based on on-field performance? Think again.

13
by MJK :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:23pm

I think it's the simple fact that the Patriots offense went from very good to elite right around the time Mankins came back. And, oh by the way, right around that time is when they started stomping on very good teams in prime time games, so that had to help his case.

I do think he's one of the best guards in the AFC, and so he deserves to go.

20
by FooBarFooFoo (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:31pm

And where is Vincent Jackson then? I hate VJax and think the guy is a turd, and I honestly like Mankins, think he is one of the very best guards, his pulling and downfield blocking is amazing, and he is by far the best OL on the Pats roster ... but c'mon. Pro Bowl is supposed to be based on on-field performance this season.

The first game Mankins played was against Cleveland ... just in case you remember what happened there*.

*=One of the games where the Pats lose to an inferior team ... I sometimes think Belichick likes losing to teams like Cleveland ... or Miami ... just to keep his team humble and hungry.

106
by dryheat :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 9:18am

Are you really comparing Mankins, who has played in 9 games, with Jackson, who FAI&P played in 2?

Not a great way to build your case. Remember that the players and coaches account for 2/3 of the vote. If they believe that Mankins has been dominant, or even one of the two best OGs in the conference, than he should go to the Pro Bowl...regardless of how many games he's played in.

16
by JonFrum :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:28pm

Mankins played 8 games this year. And Brandon Meriweather is just as bad.

As a Patriots fan, this is a new experience - over-represented on the Pro Bowl.

And the real outrage - no Matt Cassel? ;-) Apparently the voters didn't want to hurt Peyton's feelings.

127
by paddypat (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 11:25am

I agree with the comment about Meriweather. I think he's one of the weakest links at this point in the Patriots' defense. He was solely responsible for the long TD we gave up to Green Bay, taking such an atrocious angle to the ball that he knocked McCourty out of the play. I have seen him whiff on so many tackles... and even the coaching staff seems to agree at times, pulling him for Page and Chung while Sanders holds down the other spot. When McGowan comes back in the offseason, I honestly expect the Pats to cut ties with Meriweather. So what does that tell you? I guy in the Pro Bowl who's playing so poorly he gets benched by his own team for stretches! To me, picks like that invalidate the whole roster. It's really a sham. Meanwhile, the Pats' running duo have been otherworldly! Green-Ellis and Woodhead have both run extremely efficiently; they play the screen game well; they block well--it's a pro bowl backfield certainly if you add up the stats, and isn't that really what matters in this sport? I mean, if Mankins is a pro bowler for half a season, why isn't Green-Ellis a pro bowler given his workload, which dwarfs some of the marquis backs if you adjust it for greater usage.

145
by Sander :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:45pm

Mankins doesn't have near the competition for the spot that BJGE and Woodhead have. And you can't split Pro Bowls.

159
by RichC (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 4:39pm

"He was solely responsible for the long TD we gave up to Green Bay, taking such an atrocious angle to the ball that he knocked McCourty out of the play."

No, actually he wasn't. His responsibility on that play is first to cover the deep middle, then the sideline.

Pat Chung gets shucked at the line by a WR, and leaves the guy wide open in the middle of the field. Merriweather drifts inside to cover Chung's guy, then realizes the ball is going outside.

His angle was bad, but Chung is the one who blew a coverage on that play, not Merriweather. He's just the current whipping boy.

191
by paddypat (not verified) :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 10:02am

Thanks for the rejoinder. I'll check out the film again.

17
by Rich Arpin (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:28pm

I think more and more people vote because they know he has high stats and potential in Madden and then assume he's a good player. While some argue that this is a popularity contest I really see it more as a reflection of gamers getting online and voting. The Madden community is huge (millions sold every summer) and for the most part they are pretty brainless (the playcalling from others is awful online) and I think that the Pro bowl is a culmination of announcers being moronically effusive with praise and the default TV camera not properly showing the lines and and more and more a community being idiotic with their own thought process. Anyone read other sporting forums lately; I think that shows what type of people vote on the pro bowl.

24
by FooBarFooFoo (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:34pm

Any chance to see the results of the fan voting vs. players and coaches voting? Fan voting only amounts to one third of the process afaik.

I believe a guy like Mankins gets a huge number of votes from players and coaches ...

44
by Rich Arpin (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:05pm

I thought it was completely a fan driven experience

50
by PatsFan :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:16pm

Nope. It's 1/3 fans, 1/3 coaches, 1/3 players. Coaches and players can't vote for anyone on their team.

52
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:21pm

How do w e knwo coaches dont vote for own players? who chekc s the ballots to make sure everything aboiveboard?
Mike Tomlisn ssems like type of guy who would bote for own players and pretend nobody wa s looking.

63
by dbostedo :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 10:17pm

Now I'm legitimately curious as to why you think Tomlin would be the kind of guy to do that. Any particular reason?

65
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 10:23pm

M. Tomlisn seem to proetct own players more than other coahces. R. Clakr or J. Harrison with killshot in game and then after game Tomlin never scold player for it, Always making excuses. All coaches do that at leats most of the time but Tomlin did it all the time. So it seem he woudl be one to vote for own players

80
by Retire FireOmarTomlin (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 1:00am

Cable did not get vote due to inability to punch a guy in the face this season. Ballot was found in the garbage by a reporter later with only one name on list, Randy Moss.

New Years resolution from captcha: exhurds spell

54
by Rich Arpin (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:29pm

Are we discounting Meriweather then? Is he completely fan driven by fanboys with Patriots Hysteria or is he a schizophrenic version of Ed Reed, absolutely where he needs to be one play and the next he is 'hole in zone', and simply too dangerous to take chances with since he might pick one off?

72
by JonFrum :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:41pm

Meriweather was taken off the field early in the year, after a bizarre preseason in which he said that sometimes he ignored what the coaches were telling him to do. He only got back out there when someone was hurt during a game. He wants to do highlight reel hits, so he's often out of position in a system that doesn't allow for freelancing - unless you're Rodney Harrison or Tedy Bruschi.

Eric Berry has one more INT, many more tackles, and two sacks to none for Meriweather. There's something loose in Meriweather's noggin. He was boasting about being a Pro Bowl player last year when he was an injury replacement. Dude has delusions of grandeur.

117
by Mikey G (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 10:22am

Six Pro-Bowlas!! The Patriot Way is back suckas!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

131
by Karma Coma :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 11:47am

It doesn't seem like that many people are coming to Meriweather's defense and the attitude is generally that he is undeserving of the selection. I agree that Berry as at least as deserving, but i don't think the gap is that big. Berry plays behind two good-to-very good corners, while Meriweather has to cover for the massive ineptitude of Kyle Arrington and Darius Butler, who has regressed from what was already an unimpressive rookie year. (When the Pats do roll a safety to McCourty's side, it's usually Sanders who is less rangey than either Meriweather or Chung). On what was very visably his worst play of the year, he took out McCourty, but McCourty was already beaten by the Green Bay receiver for the touchdown on that play. You could argue that with a better angle, Meriweather might have been able to save the touchdown, but it's unlikely as the reciever caught the ball in full stride over the top of the defense. As one poster already commented, Meriweather was already covering for a coverage error made by Patrick Chung closer to the line on that play, and no safety can be expected to cover shallow slot routes AND a deep zone on the same play.

His picks have also come at opportune times. The first, against Buffalo came with 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter as Buffalo was driving and down by one score. The second came off Peyton Manning on the Colts' first posession, giving the Pats excellent field position which they used to go up 7-0. The pick against the Bears wasn't as useful since the game was out of reach at the point, but it did happen in the end zone, which is nice for the highlight reels. Let's not forget he also had what would have been a game-winning interception against Green Bay negated by a (ridiculous) penalty against Banta-Cain.

Reed and Polamalu are probably locked into the first two safety slots on the AFC pro bowl squad for as long as they're in the league based off well-deserved reputations. I'll concede that Meriweather has struggled at times this season, but accounting for the responsibility he has playing behind inferior corners/pass-rushers, and the timeliness of his playmaking (including some quality stops on third down runs AND passes) i don't think you can say there are other safteys in the AFC that have played significantly better than him. So much to say that his selection snubbed someone else anyway.

141
by Bobby Wommack (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:32pm

Umm, what? Merriweather has been the THIRD best safety on the Pats, let alone the entire AFC. Sanders has been, hands down, the most consistent safety for the Pats. He's been the biggest playmaker. Chung started out hot, then fell off a bit after the injury. Merriweather has been average all year. Even Page has played better than him in spots with less snaps.

I'm a Pats fan, but he's the worst selection in the entire field. It's not even debatable. Don't be a homer.

Merriweather made it because everyone knows his name after making it last year. The Pro Bowl is all about name recognition. How else do you think Shaun O'Hara makes it when every Giant fan knows he's been horrific and an embarrassment.

154
by Karma Coma :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 1:59pm

I should have been clear that i was giving reasons why i think the selection was defensible, not why i would have voted for him. FWIW, i voted twice for Polamalu and once for Berry. I watch almost every AFC game every week and i haven't seen that much consistent safety play across the board, and yes, when everyone is average, the guys with the most name-recognition and the most highlight reel plays are going to garner the most votes.

160
by RichC (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 4:41pm

"Umm, what? Merriweather has been the THIRD best safety on the Pats, let alone the entire AFC."

Then why is he playing the most snaps? Why is he the one on top of Arrington instead of McCourty?

162
by dryheat :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 4:49pm

Then why is he playing the most snaps?

Because he's been the healthiest?

186
by Athelas :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 7:58am

Yes.
The closer people watch the games, the more they think he is useless.

37
by MJK :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:57pm

The Madden factor could definitely be in play, but I think the fantasy football factor also plays a role, at least on offense. People tend to vote for the players that helped them win their leagues (or that helped their opponents win), regardless of whether that player is helping his team in real life. Hence selections like Bowe, who has been amazingly hit or miss this season.

Re Mankins versus Jackson... I agree, missing half the season should hurt someone in Pro-Bowl voting, and so maybe neither player should be voted in. However, I would argue that Mankins is more deserving than Jackson, simply because I can't think of any guards in the AFC that are clearly better than Mankins...he really is in the discussion for the best player at his position. Whereas there are clearly two or three recievers, at least, that most people would consider better than Jackson, so even if he played the whole season, he wouldn't be a shoe in.

Mankins has played in eight games this season. In one of them (his first back) the Patriots were destroyed (scoring just 14). In the others, their offense has scored 39-31-45-45-36-31-and 34 points (total: 34.4 ppg), and there were some pretty good defenses in there. Before Mankins came back, their offense scored 38-14-38-41-23-23-and 28 points (29.3 ppg), against a weaker slate. Now obviously there were other factors that went into this change, but Mankins is at least part of it.

If Mankins had missed the first seven games because of a training camp injury, and then come back and played exactly the same, I think most people would agree that he deserved a Pro-Bowl appearance. It's just that it was a contract holdout that has people knocking him. As you said, Pro-bowls are supposed to be about how a player does on the field, not their business decisions. And on the field, for half a season, Mankins has been one of the best guards in football.

I agree that Meriweather doesn't deserve to go, but I think some folks are being a bit hard on him. I think he's still an above-average safety, although he does freelance too much for his own (or the Patriots') good. I was not aruging that there were no safeties better than him; I'm just not familiar enough with the other AFC defensive backfields to put forth specific names of players I think should go instead.

42
by Rich Arpin (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:03pm

Fantasy football would definitely be a factor as well.

126
by Mikey Benny :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 11:11am

*confused* -- I know we turn up our noses at traditional stats around here, but Dwayne Bowe led the league in receiving TDs. How is that not helping his team? How is that a horrible person to select to the Pro Bowl? Most all WRs are boom-or-bust from week to week stats-wise.

134
by DisplacedPackerFan :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:03pm

I have to agree with you on this. Bowe has helped the Chiefs. He did disappear with Brodie Croyle throwing to him, but so did all the other KC receivers, which makes me think that had more to do with the QB. It's not like he is horrible by FO metrics either.

Again, these are without this weeks games, but that is fine because these are what the voting would be based on. Order is what was on the NFL.com page.

Andre Johnson - 301 DYAR (3rd NFL, 3rd AFC), 8TD, 122 EYds-Yds, 10.2% DVOA, 62% C%
Reggie Wayne - 145 DYAR (29th NFL, 17th AFC), 5 TD, -4 EYds-Yds, -1.2% DVOA, 62% C%
Brandon Lloyd - 394 DYAR (1st NFL, 1st AFC), 10 TD, 207 EYds-Yds, 23.4% DVOA, 52% C%
Dwayne Bowe - 187 DYAR (18th NFL, 9th AFC), 14 TD, 59 EYds-Yds, 8.4% DVOA, 54% C%

So what AFC receiver got in on reputation and isn't really helping his team so much? Looks like someone playing in Indy to me.... The EYds - Yds is there because that is supposed to give an indication if they are playing worse or better than standard stats. Bowe has good standard stats and FO says he is playing better than that too. Wayne has decent standard stats and is playing about that well, but by FO metrics shouldn't be there, not even close.

I'll grant that Bowe may not be one of the best 4 wideouts in the AFC, but the KC offense does rely on him, heavily. He is stretching the field and drawing double coverage, he keeps safeties out of the box to help Charles and Jones in the run game and open up the screen game more. He's the only real WR on that team which means he draws extra coverages all the time. He gets put on a lot of deep routes too. Last season he was 29% short, 46% mid, 18% deep, and 8% bomb. It's my understanding those numbers are going to shift even more towards the deeper routes this year, but I haven't see the charting data.

KC reception leaders (Catch/Targets). This does include week 16.
Bowe, WR - 67 / 122
Moeaki, TE - 46 / 68
Charles, RB - 43 / 62
McCluster, WR - 20 / 32
Chambers, WR - 20 / 40

So the KC passing offense is Bowe, Charles, and Moeaki. The other WR are just not a huge part of the offensive. The team is 10-5 vs an admittedly cupcake schedule. But the "vaunted" (by FO metrics) San Deigo is 8-7 vs basically the same schedule (I know special teams). Bowe is helping that team win.

He may not deserve the Pro Bowl, but he isn't in just because he is a fantasy stat machine. He is a legitimately good receiver.

178
by Chip Paint (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 10:50pm

Wes Welker says hi.(i know he just dropped 3)

41
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:02pm

Pro Blow voting alsways sucks

61
by dbostedo :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 10:12pm

I'm going to assume that "Blow" was a real typo...it's funnier that way.

64
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 10:21pm

yeah, Pro Blow was what meant

if spelled wrong becuausse was typing too fast might have cme out as Pro Bliw or Ppro Bloe or Por Bloe

133
by The Other Ben Johnson (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 11:48am

I nominate this for post of the year.

12
by MJK :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:21pm

As a Patriots fan, I think the Pats selected are mostly right. Brady, duh. Wilfork, of course. Mankins, definitely. And McCourty probably does deserve to go...he's been as good as Revis this year (haven't watched enough Oakland to know how good Nnamdi has been this year).

Mayo...maybe. He's led the team in tackles, but that's more a function of the Pats defense not being very good. He has looked good, but hasn't stood out as amazing to me this year...

Meriweather is perhaps a stretch. He's been good this season, but probably not Pro-bowl good. Also, the slight problem is that he plays more strong safety than free safety (according to Reiss...although the Patriots don't really play their safeties with a strict dichotomy anyway). Interesting fact that Pat Chung is more of a free safety and Meriweather a strong safety, but on the Pro-Bowl ballot they were reversed. Don't know who'd you'd send instead of Meriweather at safety, though... Are any of the Chiefs good enough to go? What about the Jets' safety who was lost just before the Pats played them?

I do think it's odd that the Patriots, who have an amazingly great offense and a poor defense this year, should send four defensive players and just two offensive players to the Pro Bowl. I actually think either Welker, Woodhead, or one of the rookie TE's would have been a better Patriot to send over either Mayo or Meriweather. The problem is, the Pro-bowl doesn't have a slot for "3rd down scat back", and there's no way Woodhead is more deserving than Jones-Drew, Foster, or Charles. And the two TE's have split time so much that neither one of them has the numbers to really justify a Pro-Bowl. And the only WR I might pick Welker over is Bowe, and that's a close one. So this isn't terrible.

26
by JonFrum :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:34pm

As a Patriots fan, you do know that Mankins was out half the year, right? For those eight games he played, did you really watch the guard play in each game, and compare it to other teams?

And Meriweather is a stretch? If by stretching to the point of breaking and then snapping back in your face, then yeah. Did you forget that Belichick pulled him off the field, and the only way he got back in the games was an injury? And you think there isn't more than one safety in the conference better than him? He couldnt' get on the field for the worst pass defense in the league, and you want to put him in the Pro Bowl game? Good God.

27
by Rich Arpin (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:36pm

As a fellow Pats fan, no way Meriweather should go. He's been servicable this year. Did you see him knock McCourty off of Jones in the GB game, or the fact that he's constantly missing portions of games as Belichick tries to get him to stop freelancing. He's really only about average this year, which is kind of disappointing after some strong showings a few years back.

As to Mayo, the D forces everything to flow to him, and he's stepping up and fulfilling his role; I think he's worthy, though he hasn't been spectacular in coverage or with his hits. He isn't flashy but he also doesn't let the runner bounce off the HUGE HIT and keep running; just solid wrap up tackling.

I'd take Bowe over Welker, Welker seems to be getting a case of the drops without the constant work.

46
by R (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:06pm

Merriweather has done an absolutely fantastic job this year of making Kyle Arrington look like he belongs on an NFL roster. He should go to the probowl just for that.

He plays like 20 yards off the line of scrimage and line 10 yards from the sideline because Arrington just can't cover anyone.

76
by PantsB (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:11am

I don't know about that. Often he's right next to the sideline because he's spent considerable time sitting behind Chung and Sanders. He was the #3 safety as recently as against GB, was #4 against Chicago, and spent the first quarter of the season as the #3 safety.
Even the local paper (the Globe) is confused:
S Brandon Meriweather (reserve): OK, we’ve got no clue on this one so we’re open to suggestions for how this happened. Haven’t talked to one personnel person with something good to say about him and his own teammates know he’s been a liability out there at time. Meriweather has also been benched. His talent has never been questioned, but he can lack focus and good study habits.
Mike Reiss calls his season "up-and-down" and his selection "a bit surprising" which is pretty harsh for him.

He hasn't been terrible this year but he hasn't been good.

107
by RichC (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 9:22am

"I don't know about that. Often he's right next to the sideline because he's spent considerable time sitting behind Chung and Sanders"

Could you point out when this was? Other than one of two games, hes consistently played more snaps than either.

Merriweather's one responsibility this year has been to cover deep, and keep Kyle Arrington from getting exposed. He has done a good job at that.

143
by Bobby Wommack (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:36pm

This is hands down one of the dumbest things I've ever seen any Pats fan say. Please, stop it. Do you really think Belichick has Merriweather out there, in EVERY scheme, just to help Arrington? You really believe that shit? If he was that bad, he'd put Butler out there instead. Arrington is one of the main reasons the Pats pass D stabilized early in the season because Butler was getting picked on every week.

161
by RichC (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 4:45pm

" Do you really think Belichick has Merriweather out there, in EVERY scheme, just to help Arrington?"
IF I thought that, I would have said that. Notice that I didn't.

Arrington sucks. He just sucks marginally less than Butler.

MErriweather is playing that side of the field because hes signficantly better in coverage than Chung or Sanders. The other two get to play behind McCourty, a signifcantly easier assignment.

Do you really think that BB is going to put his best coverage safety right behind his best coverage corner? No, hes going to shade him over the weaker guy.

164
by dryheat :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 4:54pm

Here's a question:

Which side did Meriweather play on the past two years? Since the Patriots generally play their cornerbacks right and left, and play their safeties right and left, if Meriweather is playing on his usual side (and I don't know if he is), it kind of deflates your argument.

I think Arrington has been fine this year. He's worse than McCourty, and since the opposing QB has all day to throw the ball he gets picked on (especially since Belichick doesn't have McCourty follow the #1 WR), but I think he's been decent.

45
by BJR :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:05pm

Asomugha got injured in week 8, missed two games and, although they put him back out on the field, he has been severely restricted ever since. A fairly egrerious reputation pick.

15
by Ezra Johnson :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:28pm

Favre threatened to text his penis if any player voted for Rodgers.

19
by Rich Arpin (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:30pm

That made me laugh.

115
by TreeRol (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 10:07am

Still not cool of the voters to dick around Rodgers like that.

23
by Yinka Double Dare :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:34pm

That's rather small of him.

83
by socctty :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 1:31am

Win

18
by bigtencrazy (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:30pm

Raji should get recognized just for his endurance. He has to be at the head of the pack for interior linemen in terms of percentage of snaps played. Just a Herculean effort.

That he also has provided an interior rush while also being the most consistent run defender is a credit to the young man.

21
by Rhys :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:31pm

I was initially surprised to not see Ben Jarvis as at least a backup, but looking at the stats pages the AFC is really overloaded with good running backs, holding the entire top four in DYAR as of right now.

Meriweather seemed like a little bit of a stretch to me too. I mean, he's good and all, but I didn't really think of him as one of the top three safeties in the AFC.

94
by BigCheese :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 3:33am

Really? You were surprised the consensus WASN'T that Green-Ellis is better than all but two out of:

Jamaal Charles
Arian Foster
Maurice Jones-Drew
Peyton Hillis
Chris Johnson
Ray Rice
Darren McFadden
Rashard Mendenhall

That and the fact that you consider a player who was benched several times this season to be "good and all" and just "a little bit of a stretch" tell me homer-goggles know no bounds.

And btw, man is the AFc stacked at RB!

It'd be like me saying I was surprised Johnny Knox and Isreal Idonije weren't selected to at least be back-ups. And that Tommie Harries is perhaps not one of the three top DTs in the NFC.

- Alvaro

167
by Malene, Copenhagen (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 5:09pm

Uhm... Peyton Friggin HIllis?

BenJarvus Green-Ellis is 3rd among RBs in entire NFL in DYAR, 2nd in rushing DVOA, so yeah, he probably belongs in the discussion more than most of those names.

179
by Mr Shush :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:01am

Um, no. DYAR and DVOA are not good metrics for evaluating the individual performances of running backs. Mediocre backs have been producing with great efficiency in New England for some time now. Green-Ellis 2010 looks an awful lot like Maroney 2007, and if you think Maroney should have gone in 2007 then I give up.

188
by dryheat :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 9:24am

No....no he doesn't. Maroney 2007 was essentially Maroney 2010 with a lot more rope. Take handoff....stop your feet and look for a hole....restart your feet and try to get to the hole.....hope the hole is still there.....if hole is closing try to bounce outside for a big gain.

BJGE takes the ball, runs hard and low to where the hole is supposed to be, and run through contact. It's not aethetically pleasing all the time, but it's effective at not putting the offense in bad 2nd and 3rd down situations.

Also, Maroney had 5 fumbles inside the offensive 5 yard line last season. Green-Ellis has never fumbled in the NFL, the NCAA, or as best as researchers have come up with, high school. I've probably just jinxed him as he's carrying the rock into the end zone on Super Bowl Sunday, but he's exactly what I'd want as a running back, even if he's not as sexy on film or the combine as some other guys.

193
by tuluse :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:22pm

I'm pretty sure that was his point. Maroney is bad and was 7th in DYAR (3rd in the AFC), and 6th in DVOA (also 3rd in the AFC).

201
by Mr Shush :: Fri, 12/31/2010 - 8:25am

Sorry, that was extremely clumsily expressed on my part. I meant that their numbers look somewhat similar, not that they are similar players. Maroney is completely rubbish and wasn't that much better in 2007. Green-Ellis is legitimately valuable. I still don't think he's a particularly remarkable player. You will have a tough time convincing me that his productivity is not primarily the result of the Patriots offense, as opposed to any particularly remarkable talent on his part. Put Tolbert, or Kuhn, or any other decent no-nonsense power back on the Patriots and I think the results would be similar. That is not true of Foster, Charles, Johnson or (most of all, for my money) MJD.

180
by BigCheese :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:04am

Yes, because the vast mayority of Pro-Bowl voters, be it players coaches, and specially fans, all have DYAR at their fingertips. You are right, how could anyone not have been floored that he didn't make it over those people?

I really want to come back to this thread after RBs start dropping out of the Pro-Bowl and see before how many of those I named BJGE gets in.

- Alvaro

203
by bmurphyuk@mac.com :: Fri, 12/31/2010 - 4:47pm

Well, he was "initially" surprised, then came to the same conclusion you did about RBs in the AFC. Otherwise, great rebuttal by you.

22
by PatsFan :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:33pm

I want some of the drugs the players, coaches, and fans who voted for Brandon Meriweather are on.

It was a total joke he made it before and it's even a bigger joke that he made it this year. He's perhaps the stupidest (in a football sense -- no idea about his actual intelligence) player on the team.

He's been benched and had his playing time reduced multiple times as disciplinary actions for showing up late to meetings and blowing off coaching. He is a terrible tackler who only cares about the big hit. He takes horrible angles.

A. Total. Joke.

29
by tuluse :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:38pm

The NFC offensive tackles for the NFC look pretty weak to me. Clifton and Peters are not deserving.

Not a single offensive lineman from the NFC leading Falcons either (with the 4th best offense by DVOA in the NFC).

30
by bigtencrazy (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:42pm

Chad Clifton must be getting a gold watch. He has been a fine player for a long time.

40
by Flounder :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:01pm

I think he's had one other pro bowl selection in his career (2007 maybe?). He's mixed some really excellent games this year with some really shaky ones.

36
by Sander :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:56pm

No kidding. Gross hasn't been great either. Penn(TB) and Baker(ATL) probably deserve to be in there.

43
by Southern Philly :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:04pm

Sam Baker has been way too inconsistent. Every lineman gets beat now and then, but he's had big stretches of really lousy play. He was particularly bad last night.

197
by A. Diggity :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 3:32pm

As a fan who has watched pretty much every snap of the Panthers this year (and, by the way, where's my medal for that?), I would actually go further with the criticism of Gross. This has been his worst year, easily, as a pro, and is a big reason why the Panthers are so terrible this year. (Well, let's say A reason...there are quite a few.) He has not been the same, at all, since his knee injury last season, and even then he declining; the left side got a lot better when Travelle Wharton slid over to take over at LT.

So yeah. He should not have gone to the Pro Bowl.

38
by Southern Philly :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:00pm

None of the Falcons linemen are good enough to merit a Pro Bowl selection. They're all good enough to not be in need of obvious replacement but not good enough to be irreplaceable either.

And not that it should matter, but with 7 players selected, the Falcons have enough guys going.

31
by MJK :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:42pm

I do think voting both Colts as the starting DE's is a bit of "reputation over quantity". Granted, I haven't watched a ton of Colts this year, but my impression hasn't been that their end rushers are inspiring fear in opposing offenses the way they have in years past. No doubt Freeny and Mathis are very good still, but aren't there some other pretty good 4-3 DE's in the AFC?

What about Dunlap? Mario Williams? (Can you be on IR and get voted to the Pro-Bowl?) Shaugnessey (sp?)?

Actually, on looking for other options, I see why this happens, and it's because the Pro-bowl insists on running a 4-3 despite the fact that more than half the teams (at least in the AFC) now run a 3-4.

The Pro-Bowl voting is kind of weird on defense because by "Interior Lineman" they really mean "4-3 DT or 3-4 D-lineman of any kind", and by "Defensive End" they really mean "4-3 defensive end". But this creates a problem in the AFC, because there are ten teams that run a 3-4 and only six that run a 4-3.

So that means that you only have 12 starters from six teams eligible to compete for three defensive end slots (if you happen to play starting DE for one of the six teams that run a 4-3, you have a 25% chance of making a pro-bowl), whereas you have 42 starters from sixteen different teams competing for the three interior lineman slots (a 7% chance).

It's also a problem at LB, although not as bad...you have 32 starters competing for 3 outside LB slots (9%), and almost as many--26--starters competing for just 2 inside LB slots (7%).

49
by MJK :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:13pm

So just for the fun of it, here's the percentage of starters by position that get in (for the AFC, and assuming every team has 12 offensive starters: a QB, a RB, a FB, a TE, 5 linemen, and 3 WR, and, given the propensity for sub defenses, 12 defensive starters, with a "slot CB" as the extra starter. I also assumed that each team has two players that are dedicated special teams aces).

QB: 3/16 (19%)
RB: 3/16 (19%)
FB: 1/16 (6%)
WR: 4/48 (8%)
TE: 2/16 (13%)
T : 3/32 (9%)
G : 3/32 (9%)
C : 2/16 (13%)

DE: 3/12 (25%)
IL: 3/48 (6%)
OLB: 3/32 (9%)
ILB: 2/26 (8%)
CB: 3/48 (6%)
FS: 2/16 (12%)
SS: 1/16 (6%)

P : 1/16 (6%)
K : 1/16 (6%)
KR: 1/16 (6%)
ST: 1/32 (3%)

So, as I said before, if you happen to play DE for a 4-3 team, you've got it made. Getting to the Pro Bowl is really easy. QB and RB (as long as you are a clear cut starter and not part of a committee) are pretty easy, too. Most of the other positions hover around 8-9%. Good luck if special teams is your forte, or if you happen to play CB, SS, or Interior lineman (FB looks bad, too, but really isn't, as many teams don't actually have a dedicated FB).

The Pro-Bowl should really adjust their number of slots at each position by the actual percentage of positions in their respective conferences. Since so many AFC teams now play a 3-4, how about re-breaking the categories down into "ILB", "Interior Lineman", and "Pass Rusher". And maybe some more CB slots would be nice, given how many teams regularly start 3 DB's. And why exactly is there a separation between "FS" and "SS" when they don't bother to separate 3-4 DE's from 4-3 DT's and 3-4 NT's? Do many fans even know the difference between a free safety and a strong safety?

86
by socctty :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 1:38am

It's also worth noting that a lot of teams now desire for their safeties to be able to play both safety positions, making the distinction between SS and FS even more puzzling.

128
by Ted (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 11:34am

Freeney has been absolutely destroying Tackles this year. He doesn't have huge stats, but the only way teams can keep him out of the pocket is to double or triple team him every down. Mathis too, as been consistently making his blockers look like they are standing still. If the colts had some DTs who could actually play, then that D line would have been scary as hell with Freeney and Mathis's play, and if they had a secondary that could cover, their sacks would be much higher. Although, the secondary can be forgiven when you have 6 safetys on injured reserve and you're starting your 3rd and 4th string corners.

32
by bigtencrazy (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:47pm

It's pretty amusing that a Pittsburgh offensive lineman makes the team. I don't know if he's deserving. But by observation that unit has been a pile of struggle.

62
by dbostedo :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 10:15pm

From everything I've seen and read, Pouncey is certainly deserving. despite the unit's struggles as a whole. (Although, given their record and stats, maybe that's a little overblown too?)

124
by CraigInDC :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 11:02am

I'd say Pouncey has quickly become one of the most overrated players in the league. He is good, but it is hard to imagine that he's the second best center in the AFC. The rest of the line is so bad that he looks great in comparison, but he is a rookie and often plays like one.

144
by Bobby Wommack (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:42pm

Agreed. It's funny how no one in media ever talked about Pouncey until the Steelers went on a PR campaign before their Monday (or Sunday?) night game. Then the announcing team talked about how Tomlin and the coaching staff were gushing about Pouncey...the next day, Peter King writes some glowing column about Pouncey and has him as his #2 rookie of the year. Then everyone else in the media follows suits.

I couldn't make this up if I tried. I don't know enough about the position to fully understand if Pouncey has been that good, but neither do the pundits in the media, which is my point. The media just follows the popular trends like sheep. Blame Peter King lol

189
by drobviousso :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 9:38am

In Pouncey's defense, he (along with Flozel Adams) may be the only thing talking OL coach Sean Kugler off the ledge. He was the OL coach in Buffalo last year that had to oversee that decimated line as well.

I don't think it's worth a Pro Bowl nod, but I don't know how well any non-Jet center has been this year either.

33
by Ezra Johnson :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 8:48pm

No Texans O-lineman is a surprise. I can't name any of them, but at least as a group they are pretty dominant.

51
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:19pm

Thought RT Eric Winston 73 and LT Duane Brwn 76 both goodo thisn year.

74
by Mr Shush :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:49pm

Nah - they're a pretty good group (though not great - the stars of that running game really are Foster and Leach) but none of them is individually pro-bowl worthy. Winston, as Raiderjoe says, is the best player on the unit, but he's still not truly elite, and he is in any case a right tackle, which all but disqualifies him from selection (rightly, in my opinion).

Foster, for anyone who hasn't seen that much of him, really is pretty special, not just some plug and play back getting great blocking. He lacks elite speed, so he'll never break a really huge gain, but his combination of elusiveness, power, quickness and vision, not to mention his excellence as a receiver, is truly remarkable. He almost always makes the first guy miss, he almost always finds the right hole, he almost always makes a couple of extra yards after first contact, he stays in bounds when staying in bounds should not be possible. He is the real deal.

48
by JIPanick :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:08pm

Tony Gonzalez is the choice that stands out as bad at the positions I know how to evaluate. If we're sending guys based entirely on what they did two/three years ago, how about Kurt Warner?

Aaron Rodgers got snubbed, but he got in w/o being deserving last year, so I have a hard time dredging up a lot of sympathy.

Pleasantly surprised to see Charles in over Johnson.

As a Cowboys fan, I am shocked and appalled that anyone from this mess of an O-line got elected. Well, given the state of the NFC tackles, maybe Free. But Gurode?

I think Austin is still a better player than some guys who got in over him (DeSean Jackson, for one) this year, but him missing doesn't bother me that much - his numbers were down with the Romo injury. Kitna always looked elsewhere.

Ratliff was alright, but not like last year. I can't say if it's a rep pick or not, since I don't have a good handle on the level of DT play in the NFC. Witten, Ware, and McBriar were no brainers.

56
by Anthony Coleman (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:44pm

What are you babbling about? Rodgers was the 1st alternate to Brees, Favre, and Romo last year and all of the numbers proved that he belonged. In fact he was fourth behind all four men in DYAR. They got it right last year. Maybe you just wasn't paying attention.

Anyway yeah Rodgers got hosed big time (and this is coming from a Bears fans folks) he has been the best QB in the NFC this season, thrown far less interceptions than Brees, has a much higher YPA than both Brees and Ryan, and has missed less time than Vick. He got shafted royally and should have been selected to the pro bowl. In fact this is going to go down among Tomlinson's 2003 as one of the very worst Pro Bowl snubs ever.

60
by JIPanick :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 10:05pm

No, he was the third QB on the roster. The clearly superior Romo was the alternate.

EDIT: My mistake. McNabb was the first alt. Romo was second. Go figure.

81
by Staubach12 :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 1:14am

I love Romo and thought that he deserved his Pro Bowl appearance last year. However, I don't see how you can call him "clearly better" than Rodgers. I honestly think the two were equally deserving last year. McNabb being the 1st alternate was the real joke.

85
by JIPanick :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 1:36am

Romo vs. Rodgers (2009)
+300 DYAR
+10% DVOA
Virtually identical conventional stats, Romo against a hard schedule. Rodgers agaisnt a wall of cupcakes.

Further, Romo's one of the best in the business in avoiding pressure; Rodgers was a pocket presence disaster the first half of last year. To his great credit he much improved his game afterward, although still not to Romo's level. This is an area underrepresented in statistics (Lines get too much credit/blame for sacks, QBs too little).

Huge difference? Not really. Clear difference, big enough that I feel quite justified in being annoyed at Rodgers selection? Absolutely.

As far as McNabb goes, he shouldn't even have been the alternate to the alternate to the alternate to the alternate.

125
by Arkaein :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 11:07am

I just checked, and although DVOA recognizes the harder schedule, Rodgers had a slight edge in nearly every standard passing category except sacks: 1.6% higher completions, 4 more passing TDs, 2 fewer INTs. Rodgers also offers more rushing value than any QB other than Vick and Freeman, nearly 100 more DYAR than Romo in 2009. Hardly a clear difference to me.

Regardless of the effect of the QB on sacks, the sacks mysteriously disappeared once Tauscher and Clifton both became healthy last year.

Besides (and I don't mean this personally) Dallas fans don't have much cause to complain about Pro Bowl snubs, at least until 2007 is a distant memory.

175
by JIPanick :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 9:58pm

1.6% completions, 4 tds, and 2 picks are trivial differences. (Especially since Romo actually had a lower int %). The strength of schedule is a clearly larger difference.

53
by Athelas :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:28pm

I can't believe Meriweather was selected--Chung is much better than he is just on the Patriots. The Patriots Football Weekly guys think he's just awful and won't be back with the Patriots next year.

from PFW:
Maybe the most surprising of New England’s Pro Bowlers is safety Brandon Meriweather. The fourth-year veteran makes his second straight trip to the game, this year serving as a backup to fellow former Miami alum Ed Reed. Meriweather has been more of a rotational player in New England’s secondary this season, sharing safety duties with James Sanders, Patrick Chung and Jarrad Page. His nod for the AFC squad could be thanks in part to his team’s overall success and record, or to the name recognition he earned with his trip to the Pro Bowl last season

55
by Rich Arpin (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:35pm

Chung in man coverage in the nickel slot role always bites on the square out, and so he always gives up the skinny post if there is a decent juke by the WR. While I love Chung, his man coverage has to improve. Which I think it will, he just isn't there this year. I think he'll be taking Meriweathers spot next year

I wonder how the rookie db's besides McCourty did in voting? Anyone thing Hayden, Berry or E Thomas got snubbed? (Especially in light of the Meriweather debacle)

57
by Athelas :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:52pm

I wasn't saying Chung is great--just that Meriweather is AWFUL.

104
by RichC (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 9:17am

Merriweather isn't awful. He's quite good.

He just spends most plays cleaning up after poor players in front of him (Arrington, Butler, and Chung when he is in coverage). Thats what a safety is for.

110
by slomojoe (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 9:40am

Meriweather may spend some of the plays cleaning up after his teammates (which is pretty much any safety's job, after all), but just as many cleaning *them* up, as in his tackle of McCourty against GB, and his comically late spearing of Chung on Sunday against the Bills, which miraculously didn't cost Chung a couple cracked ribs. He's late on a good third of his tackles, whiffs another third, and lands some occasional good blows on the rest.

163
by RichC (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 4:51pm

" as in his tackle of McCourty against GB, and his comically late spearing of Chung on Sunday against the Bills"

You mean on the play when Chung got beat at the line, and left his guy wide open in the middle? The play where Merriweather was out of position because he was covering the guy Chung was supposed to have in Man? You mean that play?

187
by Athelas :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 8:09am

I just finished listening to Tedy Bruschi talk about how Meriweather is NOT GOOD on the ESPN podcast. I'll take his opinion as a fairly informed one.

194
by Karma Coma :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 1:00pm

Are you counting on no one else having listened to that podcast so you don't get called on your bullshit? At no point did Bruschi say Meriweather is "NOT GOOD." Reiss said, "I could argue that he's not even the best safety on the Patriots, let alone in the AFC... Brandon Meriweather to me is not a worthy selection", and Bruschi said, "I've seen Brandon Meriweather play better football than he's been playing this year." Not that he was bad, not that he didn't play well enough to make the Pro Bowl, just that he had played better.

I've seen Champ Bailey play better football than he has this year. That doesn't mean i think Champ Bailey is bad.

You can argue about whether Meriweather deserves to be in the Pro Bowl based on his play. You can make your case that Weddle or Berry played better over the course of the season. (I think Berry has and that's why he has one of my PB votes, and Weddle has played well, but people aren't going to vote for a free safety with 1 interception unless that guy is a perennial selection.) You can argue that the comments are telling because Reiss and Bruschi are consummate homers. But saying someone said something they didn't to make your point, that's just fucking pathetic.

73
by JonFrum :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:48pm

Eric Berry belonged over Meriweather. More INTs, more tackles, and two sacks.

58
by Mystyc :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:58pm

Maurkice Pouncey in as a rookie! Well deserved, IMO, as he is the figurative baling wire making the Pittsburgh O-line look half decent (when they do look half decent, anyway).

Home-team myopia - I have no idea which other selections are rookies. Anyone?

66
by Athelas :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 10:26pm

Devin McCourty

87
by Intropy (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 2:01am

Ndamukong Suh

92
by Mystyc :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 3:15am

Suh I should have caught.

59
by Anon (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 10:00pm

What's even more astounding:

Aaron Rodgers finished 200,000 votes AHEAD of Ryan in fan voting.

95
by BigCheese :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 3:45am

Which just goes to show that either we have no idea whatsoever what we're talking abot, or players and coaches REALLY hate Aaron Rodgers.

Also, count me as another Bears fan who thinks his snubbing is the most egregious of the last few years, and about as baffling as the Merriweather selection.

- Alvaro

67
by RaiderBlow (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 10:26pm

Another thread, another terrible bunch of RaiderJoe posts.

Elevated football discussion right? What a joke.

96
by BigCheese :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 3:48am

All hail Raiderjoe.

Troll.

- Alvaro

121
by Dean :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 10:49am

So do you actually have anything to contribute? Or do you just want to whine?

174
by Rich Arpin (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 8:50pm

While RJ certainly can't spell he knows his stuff

68
by RaiderBlow (not verified) :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 10:28pm

"Raiderjoe :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 9:21pm
How do w e knwo coaches dont vote for own players? who chekc s the ballots to make sure everything aboiveboard?
Mike Tomlisn ssems like type of guy who would bote for own players and pretend nobody wa s looking."

And yet I get moderated just for pointing out how terribly unfunny his gimmick is - and has been for years.

What a sick joke.

Things could be worse I suppose, I could be a raider's fan.

71
by JIPanick :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:40pm

Here's the catch, though: His gimmick is harmless. Bad spelling never hurt anyone. It's not offensive. He doesn't make personal attacks. He doesn't troll. He doesn't diss your favorite player - except the week he plays the Raiders, but even then it isn't mean-spirited - I can understand not liking the guy, but he's the type that can be ignored pretty easily if you don't wanna read his stuff.

97
by BigCheese :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 3:49am

I just formulated a theroy. What if Raiderblow is Raiderjoe's alternate, sober persona?

- Alvaro

142
by Arson55 :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:32pm

When sober Raiderjoe isn't a Raiders fan? This...actually makes sense.

...wait, no it doesn't. Raiderjoe sober?

70
by bcornell :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:22pm

Agree on Meriweather... he is a below average player who hits hard, but gets duped constantly. He'll be on the Ravens before long.

Kyle Williams (Buffalo NT) should have been picked. That guy is a one-man army. The OL's across the league know it.

75
by PerlStalker :: Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:49pm

Nice to see Lloyd get in. He's been a monster in an offense that's been pretty hit or miss. I'd have liked to have seen Orton get a nod but there's no chance given the rest of the AFC QBs.

77
by JasonK :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:18am

So long as we're tagging dubious selections, I'll mention Shaun O'Hara as the backup NFC Center. He has only played in 6 of 15 games, and the line has looked generally more effective with Rich Seubert (normally the starting LG) at C than it has with O'Hara there.

I don't know my NFC-wide Center play well enough to say who should've gotten the nod instead, but I'm pretty confident that it shouldn't have been a guy who has been the 2nd best Center on his own team.

78
by CoachDave :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:35am

This is why the Pro Bowl is a joke of an East Coast fan and media bias.

Meriweather?

McCourty over Johnathan Joseph?

F- me.

108
by Treima6 (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 9:28am

Never mind the fact that McCourty is a pretty big reason why every Patriots game hasn't devolved into a 40-35 shootout, and that Joseph is on a terrible football team...

McCourty: 81 TCKL, 1.0 SACK, 2 FF, 6 INT
Joseph: 39 TCKL, 0.0 SACK, 0 FF, 3 INT

Come again, sir?

130
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 11:38am

You simply cannot use counting stats to measure CB-play. It's simply not an argument to say "CB X has Y more tackles than Z". I haven't seen Joseph much this year, but it's entirely possible, that opponents have been picking on McCourty - giving him a lot more shots at making the tackle og picking off a pass. On the other hand opponents might be throwing away from Joseph - it's a lot harder to make the tackle when the completion happens on the other side of the field.

In fact you could easily use your numbers to make the opposite argument: "Joseph is so good that teams avoid throwing to him. You see, if he was giving up completions he would be making a lot more tackles." So unless you want to make the case that Joseph is giving up completions, but making business dicisions or Joseph is only half as good a tackler as McCourty, your numbers don't show anything.

Also, what does being on a good team have to do with anything? McCourty certainly plays for a better team, but the two defenses in question are almost exactly even pr. DVOA. So it boils down to NEs all-tiime great offense; is McCourty really helping the offense that much?

132
by dryheat :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 11:47am

While I agree with your point of general evaluation, in McCourty's case, his tackles aren't simply a byproduct of his man catching the ball and then tackling him. He actually excels in run support. If there were a stat available breaking down a DBs tackles between RB and TE/WR, I think he might lead the league in RB tackles. The only CB in recent memory that I've seen tackle so fundamentally is C. Woodson.

137
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:15pm

I'm not advocating one over the other, I'm just saying the above analysis is extremely faulty.

That would be an interesting stat, even though it might have a lot of noice from differences in scheme.

And lastly, if you have done the scouting, which I haven't, I can't argue with that - noone can, really.

150
by MJK :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 1:18pm

Of course, the counter to the "CB is so good he's being avoided" argument is that avoiding a CB doesn't mean that he's good...just that he's better than the CB on the other side.

And there's a competing phenomenon as well...a very good CB is more likely to be left in single coverage (i.e. a team will usually roll a safety to help the weaker of their two corners). If they do that, I would expect opposing offenses to target the good CB MORE, because he's always on an island in single coverage.

So your bigger point, that counting stats aren't useful for evaluating CB play, is right. There are influence where a good CB could push counting stats up or down. I agree that CB play is one of the hardest of all positions to evaluate via stats, after only maybe LB.

(I've maintained that the best stat for a DB would be a "success" ratio, where a DB gets a "failure" for any successful pass play that he personally is in coverage for, but gets a "success" for any failed pass play that he is on the field for, regardless if his guy was targeted.)

155
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 2:12pm

Good points.

Could you expand on your last idea? I sounds interesting but somewhat counterintuitive...

165
by RichC (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 4:54pm

", but it's entirely possible, that opponents have been picking on McCourty"

Yes, its entirely possible, but its not actually happening.

McCourty is VERY good. He honestly, as a rookie, is one of the top 2 or 3 CBs in the AFC. He's fantastic in coverage, fantastic against the run. Frankly, with Revis's and Nnamdi's contract situations, I'm not sure there's a CB in the NFL I'd rather have.

168
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 5:12pm

To boil it down, I wasn't saying he was wrong, just that he might be right for the wrong reasons.

79
by Intropy (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:56am

My inner Steelers homer thinks Mike Wallace, Lawrence Timmons, and Ike Taylor deserve the honor.

Wallace is statistically better than Wayne and Bowe, and he doesn't have Manning throwing to him, so he should be above Wayne at least.

It's hard to argue with Lewis and Mayo. Mayo is a tackle machine and Lewis is playing well, but on the other hand Timmons has a very similar stat line to Lewis (-2 tackles, -1 forced fumble, +1 sack).

I find defensive secondary to be difficult to measure and fairly subjective, especially considering that a perfect season could potentially mean no tackles, no passes defense, no sacks, no interceptions, and no targets. So I'm not sure what to say to support my position on Ike Taylor.

My inner Steelers pessimist thinks that while Pouncey is clearly their top offensive lineman and could realistically be in the discussion for offensive rookie of the year, he's not having a pro-bowl-caliber season.

I'm also kind of surprised to see James "I try to hurt (but not injure) people" Harrison and Brandon "the human spear" Meriweather were voted in.

Nnamdi Asomugha is a tremendous player, but my suspicion is he's getting in largely on reputation this season. What do the experts/stats say?

It should Brees, Rogers, and Ryan for the NFC QBs. Vick is playing well, but he's in for the redemption story as much as for his play.

82
by tuluse :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 1:22am

I just have to point out that sometimes corners make tackles in run support (in the Bears scheme, Tillman is relied on to make tackles rather heavily). So the perfect stat line should include some tackles.

James "I try to hurt (but not injure) people" Harrison

I'm pretty sure the entire 1985 Bears team had this mentality. Making the other guy feel pain is a big part of football, but (ideally) you still like to see him walk away from it.

88
by Intropy (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 2:08am

That's a good point about the run support. And of course if you really want to imagine the extreme omnipotent perfect CB season, he blitzes every play for a strip sack, recovery, and a touchdown on the run-back. Actually, which would be more perfect, he does that every play and it only takes him one second, or he does that every play and it always takes exactly 15 minutes off the clock?

I'm not against the mentality, and I don't actually have a problem with Harrison being selected. I'm just surprised he got in with the flack he's taken this year.

102
by T. Diddy :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 7:56am

So we all agree that ROBO-CB would be worth whatever you could pay him, right?

89
by Intropy (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 2:25am

Oh and put me down for one Kyle Williams over both Vince Wilfork and Richard Seymour. Also, two starting nose tackles? I think these positions are showing their age. Who's the best wingback this year? Cribbs?

93
by Yaguar :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 3:26am

Colts fan here: Wallace is better than Wayne.

98
by BigCheese :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 3:53am

Wait, you honestly think that matt Ryan, or even Drew Brees are playing better than Vick this season? have you seen ANY Eagles games this season?

I can understand wanting to downgrade him because of missed time, but any argument which hinges of his level of play not being absolutely deserving is as flawed as any argument for Merriweather as deensive POY.

- Alvaro

111
by dryheat :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 9:42am

Vick....the guy who was played ~25 good minutes out of the last 180? Yeah, I'm okay with saying Ryan and Brees have been playing better.

It's hilarious to me that it's taken less than 4 months from the media to go from "Vick is the Devil" to "Poor Vick, what a redemption story! Let's all root for him!" Funny that people like to root for him because the Eagles are winning. If the Eagles were 6-9 with Vick playing QB, even playing well, it wouldn't be such a heartwarming story of personal redemption and growth.

I've seen plenty of Eagles games this year. If there were an award for overrated player in the NFL, he's got my vote.

He's still miles above where he used to be, and I'd put him in the top-third of the NFL. Would I take him on my team over Brees, Ryan, Rodgers? Not a chance. I would say absolute best he'd be fourth this year...and you could possibly make arguments for Cutler or Manning.

135
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:07pm

1. That was maybe the best 25 minutes a QB has played in this decade, and certainly this year.

2. Swings in public perception happens all the time - it has little to do with how good the player actually is, and more to do with how good his team is. Perhaps he IS overrated, but that doesn't mean he isn't any good.

3. I would also take Brees, Ryan, Rodgers over Vick, if I was building a franchise, but that's a totally different question. Vick gives you the best shot at winning tomorrow - this is an opinion of course.

Also - I am interested to hear the arguments for Vick

136
by Dean :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:12pm

"Vick gives you the best shot at winning tomorrow"

If he stays out of jail.

149
by dryheat :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 1:14pm

1. I don't know. He seems to get a lot of credit for a spectacular RAC by Celek, a well-executed on-side kick, and a DeSean Jackson punt return in the Giants game. The first 50 minutes were spent largely throwing over, under, and wide of receivers. I realize voting was concluded before last nights game, but he was pretty bad once again, at least during the 45-or-so minutes of game-time that I watched. Bad throws, bad decisions, and turnovers. The fact some people want to make him MVP astounds me.

3. Sure...and if I were building a franchise, I'd take Stafford and Bradford over Vick too (still staying within the NFC). Are you saying that tomorrow, or let's say the playoffs, that Vick gives you the best chance of winning - over every other NFC quarterback? I suppose one's opinion would somewhat depend on who's offense you were putting each guy in, but all things being equal, I'd take Brees, Ryan, and Rodgers 100 times out of 100. The Eagles are one-and-done in the playoffs, because a good defensive co-ordinator can force Vick to play away from his strengths and press him into mistakes. Still opinion, of course.

181
by Mr Shush :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:12am

Vick against the Packers will be interesting. Vick against any other NFC defense I think will be fine. Vick against the Steelers in the Superbowl would get annihilated.

138
by Intropy (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:18pm

I honestly think that Brees and Rogers are playing better than Vick, and Ryan is on average playing about as well (more consistent with less extreme top end performance), but factoring in the play time as you mention, I think Ryan is more deserving.

84
by Staubach12 :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 1:32am

Gurode does not deserve a Pro Bowl roster spot! He maybe deserved it once, but he keeps getting in year after year. I can't help but think that he gets the votes because his name gets called more often than any other center (not a good thing for an O-lineman).

Rodgers should have made it over Matt Ryan.

Not sure how Jason Peters made the roster. I'm saw him get killed by Jared Allen tonight.

Mankins didn't play enough to make the roster in my opinion.

Mike Wallace should have made the roster. He's #2 in DYAR, #1 in DVOA, and he played four games with terrible QBs. Wayne got in because of reputation (and very good numbers on a depleted roster), but that should have been Wallace's spot.

182
by Mr Shush :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:15am

Wallace plays on the same team as Hines Ward and Heath Miller and Rashard Mendenhall. Wayne plays on the same team as Pierre Garcon and Jacob Tamme and a bunch of intermittently injured backs behind an offensive line that run blocks so badly it doesn't matter who's back there anyway. I'm willing to bet Wayne sees a lot more double coverage, and a lot less eight in the box.

190
by drobviousso :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 9:44am

For the first 4 games or so, Wallace saw single coverage from the opposing teams fastest corner. Sometimes, this was their #1, sometimes not. In that time he caught 1 to 2 bombs per game, and was behind coverage half a dozen times. Since then, he's been getting double coverage, usually from the best CB, and a safety twenty yards down field on his side of the ball.

Ward's game has devolved to the point where any CB in the league can seemingly cover him in man. In zone, he just trots out to a HIZ and catches anything thrown to him. Miller and Mendenhall are both having down years receiving.

Wallace is getting more attention this year than Holmes did last year.

91
by slipknottin :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 2:51am

So the giants Shaun O'Hara plays in only 6 games, and the games he doesn't play in the giants run the ball much better and pass protect better. Explain how he makes the probowl. I would think nearly any other NFC center deserves it more than him, including the guy who replaced him when he was hurt Rich Seubert.

99
by Theo :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 4:58am

Lawrence Timmons. He's better than Mayo.
.
Is it me, or is Dallas over represented every year?

101
by Sifter :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 5:38am

Agree about Timmons he should be there. I think Ray Lewis got by on his rep this year. The other snubs for me were a couple of my Eagles boys: Trent Cole and Quintin Mikell. Cole had some fairly tough competition, so while he is awesome, I can understand how he misses out, but how is Mikell worse than either Adrian Wilson or Antrel Rolle? Both those guys have looked very dodgy when I've seen em play.

As for Dallas, yep perenially overrated. They'll probably be the trendy Super Bowl pick next preseason...

113
by Theo :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 9:58am

...and the Texans the suprise playoff team.

166
by RichC (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 5:02pm

While I think Timmons is very good, James Harrison, Lamar Woodley, and James Farrior are much better than Tully Banta-Cain, Rob Ninkovich, and Gary Guyton, which probably makes Mayo's job significantly tougher to do.

176
by Intropy (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 10:18pm

It would make his job tougher, but it wouldn't necessarily be bad for his stats. I mean if the other 3 linebackers aren't making the tackles, Mayo would naturally get more.

Not knocking Mayo, mind you. Just commenting on the difficulty of judging these things.

105
by bigtencrazy (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 9:17am

I cannot speak to all centers but Scott Wells has had a pretty good year going head to head with Pro Bowlers Wilfork and Ratliff and absolutely manhandling Ratliff. Not to mention the other solid interior linemen on the schedule including the Williams duo, Suh (though Sitton had him most of the time), Babineaux, and Cofield.

114
by Jay Gloab :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 10:03am

Trent Cole should be there. Maybe the best all-around DE in the league.

122
by Dean :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 10:52am

Actually, this year, James Hall is a bigger snub than Cole. They both have the same number of sacks, but where Cole forced one fumble, Hall forced 6.

Cole is clearly the better player, but Hall had the better year. It would have been nice to see the veteran get acknowledged for having what will probably end up being the finest season of his career.

148
by bubqr :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 1:04pm

Put Trent Cole opposite Chris Long and he would be putting better stats than James Hall in my opinion. Juqua Parker is not bad, but...

151
by Dean :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 1:19pm

So what you're saying is that Trent Cole is a better player than James Hall?

I already stipulated that. But Hall had the better year this year.

It's a case of a journeyman overachieving and a stud having an average to below average year, sure. But in 2010, James Hall outproduced Trent Cole.

183
by Mr Shush :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:18am

In terms of conventional statistics, sure. Maybe that's what you mean by production. But I'll bet Cole drew a lot more double teams, and that probably means he did more to help his team win.

He also plays the run extremely well; I have no idea if that's true of Hall or not.

116
by Anonymous1 (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 10:21am

You know, despite having the #1 defense for most of the year, the San Diego Chargers really don't get any recognition for it. Even in highlights, it is always the offense that gets shown making a huge play.

I can't help but notice that there are exactly 0 chargers on defense there. That kind of surprises me, I at least expected Shaun Phillips or Antonio Garray in there.

129
by BJR :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 11:34am

Garay has stiff competition in Ngata and Wilfork at the NT position. Phillips over Harrison, Wake or Suggs? Not a lot in it. I'd say Eric Weddle should have had a shot looking at who the AFC safeties are, but then again he's not the highlight reel type Ed Reed or Meriweather.

184
by Mr Shush :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:19am

If Weddle is in the same category as Meriweather, hell yes. Far better player.

123
by Dean :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 10:52am

It's hard to get to riled up about a punter, but how is Matt McBriar on the roster instead of Donnie Jones?

170
by BlueStarDude :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 5:25pm

Uh, because McBriar leads the league in net punting average?

I haven't watched enough of the other punters to argue that McBriar is the best punter in the NFC. But he has been great this year and he's ahead of everyone in the best of the few popular stats for punters.

140
by ammek :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:28pm

The entire NFC secondary is a mess. How does Adrian Wilson get in? This isn't 2007, people. Woodson has had an up-and-down year, during which he's been obviously outplayed by one of his teammates, Tramon Williams. Collins is a repeat pick: he's had a quiet year including the usual slate of dropped interceptions and fluffed tackles (see: Vernon Davis TD). The argument against Samuel and Hall is well-known here: they're gamblers who get in on interceptions. Two-thirds of Hall's picks came in one game: following that logic, Billy Volek could have been a ProBowler.

Jay Ratliff seems to be having a down year to me (though I don't follow Dallas closely). Interior line is a position of strength in the NFC: wouldn't BJ Raji, Aubrayo Franklin, J. Babineaux or Kevin Williams have been better picks?

The fan voting gets a bad press, but it nominated Josh Sitton as the NFC's top guard. He and Carl Nicks should be starting, with Harvey Dahl as the backup: Jahri Evans and Chris Snee are in on past performance. At least Faneca and Hutchinson missed out.

Center is a disaster in the NFC: I'd vote for Dominic Raiola. Tackle isn't much better: if there are no qualified LTs, why can't a RT such as Tyson Clabo get in?

157
by DisplacedPackerFan :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 2:40pm

The fan voting gets a bad press, but it nominated Josh Sitton as the NFC's top guard. He and Carl Nicks should be starting, with Harvey Dahl as the backup: Jahri Evans and Chris Snee are in on past performance. At least Faneca and Hutchinson missed out.

It's funny, I haven't found all the fan voting data, but from what I saw, I think it may have produced a better team this year than what actually happened.

I listen to a few football related podcasts/radio shows, and it was interesting to listen to Ross Tucker (journeyman lineman who played with 4 or 5 teams) talking about the player voting. He said most of the teams he was on each player voted the same way. The offensive linemen would say "yeah that d tackle/end/LB" was a beast to play against so we are voting for him, and then everyone on the team would vote for them. Since the OL didn't really know who was a good wide receiver, they would just vote for whoever the defensive backs said was a good receiver. So a lot of the player voting was just group think, and only informed by the teams you had played against that year, and easily swayed by someone having a really good day against you.

So while most on this site already understands that Pro-Bowl voting is a joke, it was interesting to get an insider take on the failings of the player portion of the voting. We already knew most of the fan voting short comings. :) I would imagine that coach voting is similar to the player voting. They know about the players on the teams they played against and then some of the popular rhetoric.

171
by Arkaein :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 8:17pm

You've raised a larger problem I have with Pro Bowl voting altogether. It's that, outside of positions that have a lot of stats like QB, RB, WR, there might be literally no one who is qualified to pick a full roster.

Even the most dedicated fans can't watch every game, and for every game they watch they can't focus on every player. Even if they wanted to, not having the all-22 camera makes evaluating a lot of DB and WR play impossible.

Players spend a lot of time watching film, but it's going to focus mainly on opponents. Specifically opponents they will be matched up against. An O-lineman will know the top D-lineman in his division, but may not have played against or seen tape of D-lineman outside his division in 3 years, if at all. And he'll never see tape of other O-lineman except for matchups against future defensive opponents.

Coordinators will watch a broader range of film, but it will still be heavily slanted towards recent opponents.

Even knowledge of specific matchups will be heavily influenced by small sample size. Most players will face an opponent no more than twice a year, and most opponents only once every few years. A couple of games played against a player is not enough to fully evaluate his abilities.

In some respects fans actually have an advantage over players and coaches. Die-hard fans will watch a large number of games, and the games with national audiences will have the better teams and by extension the largest number of good players.

169
by BlueStarDude :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 5:21pm

Yes, Ratliff is having a down year. While "doesn't deserve it" sounds a bit too harsh, there were better choices at DT for sure, namely the guys you point out.

147
by bigtencrazy (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 12:59pm

ammek:

Doesn't Raiola have a rep as being a dirty player? That would impact the non-fan voting.

196
by ammek :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 1:53pm

Possibly. I think playing for the Lions impacts it even more.

172
by scottybsun (not verified) :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 8:20pm

Brad Smith deserves the kick returner nod for AFC (or at least Leon Washington)

177
by Raiderjoe :: Wed, 12/29/2010 - 10:47pm

J. Ford great return man for Raiders deserved it too but what are you going to do? Only one guy can get it. Pro Blow silly thing anyway. we shoudn't fret about it

195
by Eddo :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 1:01pm

Leon Washington plays for Seattle now.

199
by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 8:06pm

yeah do ntoo know what scottysbun tlaking about. Maybe he was drunk or high

185
by Mike Elseroad (not verified) :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 4:45am

Since my team is the Patriots, I've seen all of their games and I'm wondering how the hell Brandon Merriweather made the Pro Bowl team.

I haven't seen too many Steelers games, but Greg Cosell of NFL Films stated earlier this season that he thought that ILB Lawrence Timmons was having a fabulous season and was worthy of consideration as Defensive Player of the Year. Cosell knows what he's talking about so I guess that the voters dropped the ball by not including him.

If any Steelers fans read my comment about Timmons, I'd enjoy to read some feedback.

Aaron Rodgers really got hosed. He should've made the NFC team over Matt Ryan.

198
by CraigInDC :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 4:30pm

Timmons has had a great year. In particular, at the start of the year he looked like the best player on the defense. He has slowed down a little in the last few weeks, but he is still really good.

He's the leading tackler on the best run defense in the NFL. The run defense is so good many teams don't really even try to run. In addition, he has 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 9 passes defended. It is easy to come up with players who should be in the Pro Bowl. It is more difficult to determine which player they should replace -- Lewis and Mayo appear to be worthy as well. Some say that Lewis doesn't deserve it, but he has good stats too. I don't watch enough Ravens games to know anything about his play this year. I also don't know if Mayo deserves it, but he leads the league in tackles by a fair margin, and that will get the voters attention.

192
by Crymeariver (not verified) :: Thu, 12/30/2010 - 10:53am

For the most part, I really don't know who should or shouldn't be in the Pro Bowl--too many plays...too many players. But I do find it hysterical that a number of people here seem to think that Meriweather made the team because (ho-ho) he's a household name and that people who watch friggin' television seem to think they have a better handle on this than the folks who actually play and coach against these guys. (And note to Pats fans: Enthusiastically throwing Meriweather under the bus does not give you street cred for objectivity or humility...and if you really think that Meriweather has spent the entire year merely trying to get out of Belichick's doghouse and McCourty's way, then objectivity and humility aren't the only things you're lacking.)

200
by Mike Elseroad (not verified) :: Fri, 12/31/2010 - 3:18am

Dude, Merriweather was benched earlier this season!

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by BL (not verified) :: Fri, 12/31/2010 - 3:35pm

Shaun O'Hara played SIX GAMES ONLY!
Logan Mankins played NINE.
Andre Gurode had all kinds of trouble with snap-fumbling and snap-counting. And also with penalties.
Jordan Gross and Jason Peters have whiffed more blocks than the ones that they engaged this season.

This is your daily reminder that fans that vote for the Pro Bowl pick their OLine choices based on name and team.

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by Raiderjoe :: Fri, 12/31/2010 - 11:23pm

Anthoyn Munoz probably got some writi in votes this year.

3rd aletrante he is

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by Raiderjoe :: Fri, 12/31/2010 - 11:24pm

sorry mad ea two bagger