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17 Mar 2010
Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
In another followup on the short-yardage story yesterday from ESPN Insider, this article by Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune and National Football Post takes a look at the Bears' struggles in short-yardage last year, especially new record-holder Matt Forte.
22 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2010, 4:03am by sports-veronica
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Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
I don't pay for ESPN, but isn't the 800 pound guerilla in the room their... ahem crappy offensive line? Isn't there a pretty obvious relationship there? I hope the paying customers get more than that.
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
Man, an 800 pound guerrilla would be really scary. I picture a hulking dude wearing torn clothes and face-painted camouflage, with a massive AK-47, half again as big as Andre the Giant. That's even scarier than an 800 pound gorilla, which is one sizable ape!
:-)
On the other hand, either one would probably make a pretty effective short yardage back...
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
On the other hand, you bring up a minor pet peeve of mine. People always assume that big backs are automatically goalline backs. Usually they are but not always.
I remember giving Troy Aikman so much credit when he pointed out that Ron Dayne ( although a big back) was not a very good goalline back. He would wussyfoot around and not hit the holes the way he was supposed to as he'd dance and get tackled behind the first down line.
Last year Ahmad Bradshaw more than held his own compared to big Brandon Jacobs.
So why is it? Sometimes the big back is a bigger ( slower/less agile target), while the smaller guys can move quickly, avoid hits or get hit in a way the deflects the hit. The big backs don't always push the defenders back for the 1st down, sometimes they are hit by say 2 LB's and get pushed back. These smaller guys can end up being quicker in small space and weasel their way to first downs.
But in all reality, most of it is the line you have in front of you. Can they get a push or not? If they get bulldozed liked the Bears O-Line then it doesn't matter who you are back there, and if they are the Jets O-Line getting that push it makes the RB's job a heck of a lot easier.
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
So, it appears you and Barnwell agree on something. I've never understood why people think bigger backs are automatically better in short yardage myself, but if run-to-win still has followers, well...
--
There's a place I want to be. It's the NovaCare Center. That's in Philadelphia. One NovaCare Way, where the Eagles practice and then they eat cafeteria food and they watch film and we eat and we have fun.
-Donovan McNabb
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
A) The Bears O-line NEVER got a push and often was pushed back. B) They also rarely EVER created a hole. C) Matt Forte is not a push-the-pile back. That combo should be expected to fail in short yardage a lot which it did. This is not rocket science.
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
That's what I'm saying. I'd never pay for ESPN but I hope there is more to the story than the obvious. PS, to blame it on Forte and say HE wasn't a good short yardage back is unfair. The guy had a line full of bums in front of him, what do you expect?
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
Um, the linked story is on www.chicagobreakingsports.com, which is not affiliated at all with ESPN.
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
As someone who watches every play of every Bears game, I can say that all of the above is accurate. And I will add the following: D) The play calling in short yardage was terrible.
The season on offense was defined by two things: The many interceptions thrown by Cutler and the unbelievable number of failures in short yardage. I cannot remember another team failing to score so many times when it had first and goal at the 1 or 2 yard line. The sequences against the Falcons and Ravens stand out in my mind, although I'm sure there were others.
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
Wow the chicago line wasnt even that bad this year. They had 4.02 aly and 4.04 runningback yards. Basically Forte was exactly average at what he was given by the line, which was.... exactly average. If the line sucked then so did forte. The bears line actually was better this year according to the offensive line numbers on this site. Forte just isnt as good as everyone thinks he is
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
I watched every excrutiating play of the Bears last season (I mean this as a fan who got incredibly frustrated with the way they were playing) and I don't give a monkeys what ALY says, the line was terrible. Forte wasn't great but would often have to fight his way through several defenders just to get back to the line. The best look he would get would be a wall of Bears linemen holding all their guys in their gaps, and no hole. If there ever was a case of a good back disguising the inadequacies of his line (as far as advanced stats were concerned) then this would have to be it. I wrote entire missives at the time about how bad Omiyale was in the first six games or so (which was in all probability entirely pointless). I wasn't lying or demented there were abysmal blocks on almost every down. It improved towards the end of the year but Forte was dinged at that point which probably reversed the situation over the last couple of games.
I don't really get why folk say Forte never get extra yards as he almost always falls forward after the tackle. I don't see what folk are bitching about.
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
the bears line according to the numbers was better this year than it was last year. And there were about 10 teams with a worse line then them. I dont get why chicago is the only team that everyone is making a big deal out of. Forte gained the average yards that a back would gain given his circumstances. He is mediocre. And according ALY to yards gained by back, forte had a better season this year than he did in his rookie season. This is just getting blown out of proportion, the bears line is average and forte is average. lets start talking about something besides a mediocre run team.
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
lets start talking about something besides a mediocre run team.
Ah yes, the age old I can't be bothered with this trivial topic yet I'll post lengthy responses.
Sure the Bears line is average, Rivers is better Peyton. Any more sage wisdom you have for us?
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
I didnt say i can't be bothered with it....
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
At this point I have to ask if you actually watched many (or any) Bears games last season. If you didn't, I can see why you think the analysis you are gleaning from ALY is difficult to oppose. If you did, you and I wouldn't be having this discussion.
You won't find a Bears fan who doesn't want to see a better running game next season backs and linemen included.
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
Jimmy, in defense of the guy that doesn't watch Bears football, you have to admit the line looked at least a little bit better in a couple of the later season games... but... The Bears line sucked.
The only reason that guy is saying that is because
A) He didn't watch Bears game
B) He's blindly following the football outsiders stats as gospel
So according to him the 2007 NY Giants are still the 18th best team in football, and according to him ( as Tuluse) pointed out Phillip Rivers was better than Peyton Manning.
My advice, if you know what you are talking about ( and this website has plenty of posters who DO know what they are talking about), then you should use DVOA as a tool in your toolbox, and not the end all be all value system that too many people use it as. I hope you don't go running around telling real live Chicago Bears fans that their line was "average" last year.
DVOA once liked Byron Leftwich. Do you think DVOA saw that windup and those windmill passes he threw and saw his resistance to any change?
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
so dvoa missed on leftwich but nailed on a couple other players. Yeah its not the say all behind everything, I still think steven jackson is overrated despite his good dvoa this year. But dvoa is semi consistent compared to other stats. Like you said, dvoa is a tool but i personally think it should be used more. I predicted forte would suck this year despite kubiaks high projection, and i knew LT would be awful and Vincent Jackson would be a top 5 receiver (not sure if he quite made itto top 5). I dont just go off of dvoa like you guys think. But i do know that the bears o-line was average according to virtually every metric. That doesnt scream worst line in the league. Keep riding me off as somebody who knows nothing about football cause i dont agree with you. I still predict more things before they happen on this website than any other fan. Its no coincidence that because of this website it was easy to predict matt forte was gonna be a flop. And btw no one uses dvoa as the end all be all value system. Come up with one other name on here that does? You wont be able to. Stick to your conventional wisdom crap.... its no better than "we need to establish the run" or "defense wins championships".
and the rivers vs manning has almost nothing to do with dvoa. You must be blind. Yeah Rivers had a better dvoa and dyar but he also was better at everything else. Stats do not favor manning at all in this debate and thats why you guys go away from it. Rivers is better. Barring an injury next year, he will have a better dvoa, dyar and the charger offense will be much better than the colts offense. I dont see you guys making predictions. State something that will happen, not a half-assed opinion of the now. Rivers is better than Manning and he will prove it again next year in dvoa.
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
Ok, I stopped reading when you said Steven Jackson was over-rated then saw the line about the Flan-Thrower being better than Manning.
Both these QBs played against a very good Jets defense in the post season at home.
1 made said defense look excellent.
1 ripped them apart, marching down the field at will.
The bears line (and I watched a lot of bears games last season) was terrible.
Even Kreutz who is usually a very good centre looked poor.
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
Last year people were whining about the bears blocking too and how pace was gonna save them. The blame game gets started in early offseason and late offseason the savior period begins. Who will be this years bears run savior? and the niners had a worse line than the bears but gore was still good.... why didnt forte do good? Because forte ISN'T good.
I believe that multiple defensive backs got injured against the colts. I remember hearing that three got hurt although i went back to the play by play and only found stricklands injury. The others (if they happened) must have been on special teams or went uncharted. This is besides the point though. Yes manning had a better game against the jets than rivers did. But how come Rivers had a better season than manning in way less pass attempts? Did they not play similar opponents throughout the season? Did manning have a good half against the jets in the regular season? You look at one game as your basis to why manning is better than rivers. Im glad you draw conclusions from 1 game! I would also like to state that jerome harrison is the best runningback in the league since he almost broke the single game rushing record. How retarded would i be to draw that conclusion from 1 game?
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
Last year people were whining about the bears blocking too and how pace was gonna save them.
That's because the line wasn't good last year, and Pace was even worse. So the line got worse. How is this hard to understand?
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
You all predicted pace would save them and you were wrong, thats my point. Predict something right once in a while. The bears had a slightly below average to average line last year and this year. Even if the line gets better forte will not do good unless they really turn into an elite unit. He had some great fortune his rookie year and is a one year wonder.
Re: Bears Come Up Short In Short-Yardage
Forte isn't as good as Gore or Steven Jackson but neither are 99% of the backs in football. On good teams those two would be borderline HOFers and I don't think anybody on these boards ever suggested that Forte belonged in their company. That doesn't make him crap though. Having watched every snap the Bears play for quite a few years now, last season was the worst the line has played in years. The had serious issues with pass protection and even seemed to mess up what should be staples in the running game (ie power runs and iso's). Again I have to ask if you actually watched any of this happening, I am not trying to be dismissive but it is difficult to see where you are coming from having watched the games and seen the lineplay from last year.
As for how the line ended up with similar (or better) ALY my explanation would be that the QB play improved last year. That might seem fatuous but when Cutler wasn't throwing picks he was a huge improvement over anything the Bears have had previously. It is the only explanation I can think of as the line was very poor, the TEs blocked poorly and Jason Mckie didn't block anyone at all.
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