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29 Jul 2010
FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
I spoke to Jeff Duncan of the New Orleans Times-Picayune about the decline we expect to see from the Saints this season.
17 comments, Last at 01 Aug 2010, 5:49pm by Sisyphus
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Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
Those Saints fans that are commenting on the article are so angry, Mr. Barnwell!
When you are more right than they are, I am sure they will have some excuse -- some injury, a missed big play, perhaps their front seven not playing as well... Yeah. Everything you already mentioned. But hey, give a fan their due anger, I suppose.
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
Also, too bad I cannot post on that site (I am not going to be bothered with signing up). They clearly do not understand the methods, nor do they take the word of their own writer that you all are some of the most advanced think tank out there.
Really, their math for winning percentage of the Super Bowl is this:
"The way I see it, we have a 1/32 chance on repeating and winning the Super Bowl again. If you need an elite QB to win a Super Bowl we have a 1/3 shot at winning the Superbowl. If you need an elite coach then we have a 1/2 shot at winning the Super Bowl. If you need an elite city and a elite fan base to win a Super Bowl then we are the only logical choice so we have a 100% shot at winning the Super Bowl!"
Hard to argue with flawless logic like that.
THIS JUST IN: THE SAINTS AND ALL THEIR FANS HAVE SWAGGER!
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
Most internet comments (not at FO) drive me to distraction; I usually avoid them. I follow nola.com's Saints coverage because it's local. The coverage isn't awful, but the comments consistently range between vapid and moronic. And these are my people. Sigh.
Saints fans waited a long time for this. Let them have their offseason delusions (to be honest, I think you'd find the same disconnect from reality if you went back one year or two). I hope we do better than FO thinks, but I won't be shocked (or gutted) if we don't.
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
On the offensive side of the ball, the Saints have been consistent for the last four years.
On the defensive side, I agree with Barnwell, because the Saints defense was dependent on turnovers last season.
However, the Saints are not like other recent SB champs because they lost no one on the coaching staff and very few key contributers on the field.
The first place schedule argument is overblown, because the first place and last place schedule in a division only differ by two games.
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Sports talk radio and sports message boards are the killing fields of intellectual discourse.
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
We are not necessarily angry, just disappointed at the disrespect. We waited 44 years for this moment, and locally, we know how valuable and good this team can be. It's just painful to hear some of the remarks made about a team THAT ONLY LOST 1 STARTER from their SB winning rooster, less than 6 months from their victory.
All last year when we were rolling through teams like a hot knife through butter, everyone and their grandmother who live outside the region were saying we were a fluke. As we progressed closer to an undefeated season, we were an aberration that would soon correct itself. After we PUMMELED the Pat's, we were finally given some kudos and thought to possibly be a contender, until we lost a tough one to Dallas, and then everyone claimed the chickens were coming home to roost. After the final 3 game slide, everyone said we were through and would be one and done in the play-offs.
So low and behold, when the Saints tore through the Cards, and then beat the Vikes at home, we were still an underdog, by as many as 8 points in some reports. So when we beat the Colts, SOUNDLY, we were just lucky.
Never has a Super Bowl Champ been so disrespected by so many, so quickly after their victory. Heck, even the Raven's had a decent amount of respect paid them, and they had DILFER AS THEIR QB! Where's the love? And ranked at 15th in a league or 32, that's gotta be a new low?
I saved this article and will happily be re-posting it come February when The Saints defend their crown against whoever the AFC rep will be, just to exhibit that think-tank projections and opinions are simply that, opinions.
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
"We are not necessarily angry".
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
Sigh.
If WJN were a regular here, he'd know that during the season the FO guys had plenty of very nice things to say about the Saints. And that the projections are the outcomes of models, not opinions. And that none of this has anything to do with "disrespect".
For the life of me, I don't understand why fans take this kind of thing personally.
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
Me, I'm just interested in this Super Bowl winning rooster he mentions.
You'd think that would be a bigger story, really.
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
Beat me to it. I'm actually laughing right now.
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
When did Rodney Harrison become a Saints fan?
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
I commented under the name SaintsfanJoe on nola.com's website (defending FO & its methods), and I think the anger from the Saints' fans is this: Why is the model predicting 8-8 from the Super Bowl winner? It's not like we're the Giants of a couple of years ago, winning 3 games on the road and "upsetting" the undefeated Pats. We had the best record in the NFC ALL YEAR, and only the Colts had a better one--and only for the last 3 weeks of the year.
In some of these FO 2010 Media articles, Bill/Aaron/etc. have discussed some reasons WHY their team isn't predicted to do good, etc. So Mr. Barnwell, (since my book hasn't got to me yet), can you be so kind as to detail WHY the projection system is down on the Saints? It has to be mostly on the defense, since we have had the best offense in the league for 3 of the last 4 years. I can even understand the skepticism of the defense--most FANS were for most of the year. But as one poster on NOLA said, last year Sharper, Greer, and Porter missed games--are they predicted to miss MORE games this year? Were they exceptionally good on 3rd down? I know they were '85 Bears-great in the red zone--is that it?
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2009/fo-mailbag-2009-new-o...
The link is from last year regarding the Saints. Basically, the system didn't think Meachem, Thomas, and Brees would do as good as they did. It projected a 32% catch rate for Meachem (oops--he had the best DVOA, and 12th in DYAR--plus his rushing stats were great too), 62% completion percentage for Brees (oops--he set an all-time record--his DYAR/DVOA are great too), and 6 fumbles for Thomas (oops--only 1; plus, he was 5th in DYAR, 1st in DVOA, and 3rd in success rate). Not to mention, some of those "reclamation projects" on defense did pretty good. I don't think that there's a way that Sharper will be that good--but the offense WILL BE. And if Reggie Bush builds on his 2009, it might be BETTER (31 d-coordinators just wet their pants).
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/17049/pierre-thomas
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/16506/robert-meachem
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/15478/drew-brees
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
Joke aside, the Saints prediction also shocked me (not as much as the Bengals, which is mind blowing). This is a SB winning team with nearly no turnover, who suffered a lot of injuries last year, and who was the best team in the regular season for a while. I know the defense forced an abnormal amount of turnovers, that the Panthers/Falcons/Bucs will all improve, that the rest of the schedule is also tough, but anyway, I find it a bit too pessimistic.
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
What most people are missing is that the Saints, while a good team, and one of the best teams in the league last year, were only so because of how their defense had played. Their defense was not expected to really good. Most people will note that their offense had been the best for a few years, and they never did really well. Their defense out-performed their ability, and the offense (specifically Drew Brees) played out of their mind. If you expect even a little regression from the offense (no records this year), and the defense to play to league-average, their win total will regress to what is predicted -- 8/8, 9/7.
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
Regression isn't a magical principle that says everything always gets worse. It means that things always tend to go to their average or expected value. I would submit that the performance of the Saints is reasonably predicted as good enough to make the playoffs, particularly considering that the Saints success was not a result of a freakish or fluke performance by a skill player. The Saints distributed statistics amongst many players, none of whom except for Brees put up impressive individual numbers. Brees will likely continue at the same Hall of Fame level performance he's had for the past four years and the role players will continue to give their average, expected performances, which are worth a similar value to what was produced last year. The result is a team that you should expect to make the playoffs and wouldn't discount from playoff wins or a championship at this stage.
Numbers aside, don't forget the sheer irrational joy of sports fandom. Your children are special, your pets are smart, your religion is the true one, and your sports team will win the championship every year. Everyone is entitled to the comfort of these thoughts even though most people will be wrong.
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
Their defence wasn't really good last year though. The run defence sucked (27th in DVOA).
In 2008 the Saints went 8-8 when every aspect of their defence sucked, so yeah, it can happen again. But the NFC South was strong that year, stronger than now (CAR and TB have significantly regressed, ATL maybe stronger). There is no reason to suggest that they won't continue to field a top 5 offence (unless Brees gets injured) so if the Saints field a league average defence this year they will easily make the playoffs.
Re: FOA 2010 MEDIA: New Orleans
Predicting a team not to repeat as Super Bowl Champions should be expected; anyone surprised by that is simply not paying attention. It is somewhat surprising though to see the Saints prediction does not include them making the playoffs. While the Falcons are a likely winner in that division it is hard to designate them as a lock of any kind. The defense there needs to improve a lot and the talent is not all that impressive which is somewhat the issue throughout that division (Tampa being a possible exception).
But even if the Falcons do win the division the second place team in the South should have a very good chance to grab a Wild Card spot. Getting the NFC West and AFC East (not as good this season as most) is not going to hurt their chances despite the first round schedule. The NFC East gets the NFC North and the AFC South and then get to beat each other to death so it is doubtful they are going to produce two playoff teams. The North does seem likely to get two teams in though I expect the Vikings to fade late in the season as Brett wears done as he inevitably will. The NFC West does not seem likely to have two teams over 500.
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