Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Aug 2010

FOA 2010 MEDIA: The SB Nation Takeover [FINAL]

We're happy to announce again that we've partnered again this year with our friends at SB Nation to talk about FOA 2010 with their NFL team bloggers. We'll be posting links to those articles as they get released, many of which should happen today. Thanks to Dave Halprin for his work in arranging all of this.

Monday, 10:30pm EDT

Silver and Black Report (Oakland Raiders): A talk about how, well, the Raiders aren't a very good football team.

Bucs Nation (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Dave Gardner discusses the steps his Buccaneers are taking in the right direction.

This should conclude our takeover of SBN's NFL blogs.

Monday, 6:50pm EDT

Arrowhead Pride (Kansas City Chiefs): The first part of my chat about our AFC West favorites focuses on the comparison made between Tamba Hali and Elvis Dumervil.

Monday, 10:00am EDT

Bleeding Green Nation (Philadelphia Eagles): A calm, rational discussion of Kevin Kolb and Daniel Te-O'Nesheim. And ranking the NFC East tight ends.

Friday, 3:58pm EDT

The Daily Norseman (Minnesota Vikings): A two-parter on the expected Vikings regression, with the second part here.

Niners Nation (San Francisco 49ers): The second part of my discussion with the esteemed Florida Danny on the place of statistical analysis in football and how it relates to the 49ers.

Thursday, 11:38pm EDT

Gang Green Nation (New York Jets): Last one for tonight before I have to hop on a flight, but here's our chat about Antonio Cromartie and the viability of a well-aged LT.

Thursday, 10:56pm EDT

Mocking The Draft: The second part of our interviews with SBNation's draft blog talks with our David Gardner, who was once a writer for that very blog.

Bolts From The Blue (San Diego Chargers): A discussion of regression to the mean and why the Chargers could be immune.

Thursday, 8:15pm EDT

Dawgs by Nature (Cleveland Browns): Robert Weintraub looks at why the Cleveland defense will improve this year, and how former FO binky Bobby Engram has fallen to a sub-CFL status.

Big Blue View (New York Giants): Bill Barnwell on why Corey Webster is a big question mark and Keith Bulluck may not be as good an addition as some fans expect.

Thursday, 6:30pm EDT

Cincy Jungle (Cincinnati Bengals): More questions here about specific players rather than our overall outlook on the Bengals.

Thursday, 1:00pm EDT

Acme Packing Company (Green Bay Packers): A two-part interview (Part II here) on the secondary and those cursed tackles.
Niners Nation (San Francisco 49ers): The first part of a long two-part interview with Florida Danny on the 49ers and the state of statistical analysis as it relates to the oblong spheroid.

Thursday, 12:30pm EDT

Baltimore Beat Down (Baltimore Ravens): Our favorites to lead the league in wins goes through the ringer.
Buffalo Rumblings (Buffalo Bills): Will Brian Brohm ever be the guy the LCF loves?
Blogging the Boys (Dallas Cowboys): Discussing Doug Free and the Cowboys' paltry win projection.
Battle Red Blog (Houston Texans): As you might suspect, Texans fans expect more than 5.6 wins. Vince attempts to maneuver the pitchforks.
Big Cat Country (Jacksonville Jaguars): Tom Gower talks about Derrick Harvey's hurry total and the expectations for Tyson Alualu.
Hogs Haven (Washington Redskins): On the Redskins' dim three-year projection vs. their positive one-year projection.
Mocking the Draft: The first in a two-part series with SB Nation's draft blog talks with Doug Farrar about the skill position players in this year's draft.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 02 Aug 2010

27 comments, Last at 02 Aug 2010, 2:12pm by ArrowSpread

Comments

1
by drobviousso :: Thu, 07/29/2010 - 2:52pm

Wow, that 'skins post is... something else.

2
by DavidWPB (not verified) :: Thu, 07/29/2010 - 3:38pm

That's exactly what I was thinking.

22
by 57_Varieties (not verified) :: Sat, 07/31/2010 - 1:18pm

Ditto.

16
by Jeff Fogle :: Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:58pm

Early Regular Season win props are out offshore...with the initial openers having been hit by some of the smart money. Here are some numbers you can compare to the articles above:

MOST WINS
Indianapolis 10.5 or 11 depending on locale
San Diego 10.5 (over a slight favorite)
Dallas 10.5 (under a slight favorite)
New Orleans 10.5 (under a slight favorite)
Baltimore 9.5 or 10 depending on locale (over the favorite at 9.5, under the favorite at 10)

Others at 9.5: New England, NYJ, Minnesota, Green Bay.

Houston is at 8.5 right now, with Under a very slight favorite (Over would be a slight favorite at 8).

Washington is at 7.5 with Under a slight favorite

Buffalo is at 5 to 5.5, with Over a slight favorite at 5, Under a slight favorite at 5.5

Think that covers the teams listed. Wanted to list all the top teams for comparison with the thought that Baltimore's poised to post the best record...

Editing in new ones as I see them mentioned in the interviews...

NFC East as a whole offshore:
Dallas 10 to 10.5
NYG 8.5 (over a slight favorite)
Philadelphia 8.5
Washington 7.5

Looks like FO's projections are pointing towards Dallas Under and Washington Over. Also believe I saw references to Under 10.5 for San Diego and New Orleans, and way Under 8.5 for Houston.

Won't post differentials between market and FO until a win projection is posted here in a free link in deference to anyone who may have purchased the book for the win projections.

Oh, San Francisco is at 8.5/9, with Under a favorite at 9 and 8.5 near pick-em. I believe the discussion with the SF blog said the FO projection was a round 6. So, that would be a strong Under preference for the FO projection system...

New edit with Minnesota going up. Market has Minnesota 9.5 wins. FO has 8.5, so an Under vote for FO on Vikings Under...

3
by MilkmanDanimal :: Thu, 07/29/2010 - 5:01pm

I can only assume that any interviews with people responsible for reporting on the Buccaneers involve FO staffers uncomfortably trying to reassure the drunken, sobbing bloggers on the other end of the phone.

4
by Treima06 (not verified) :: Thu, 07/29/2010 - 5:52pm

FOA was pretty high on the Bucs improving significantly over last year. They aren't likely to contend for much in 2010, but another year and they should be looking good again.

5
by Fan in Exile :: Thu, 07/29/2010 - 9:16pm

Is Mile High Report coming soon?

6
by tornadot :: Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:45am

Would also be interested in seeing this...

7
by bingo762 :: Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:19am

I love the message board responses on those sites. How about you chill out and wait and see? Also love how the Cowboys fans cry that FO unfairly favors the Eagles. Meanwhile, over the past decade the Eagles have been perrenial NFC championship contenders. The Cowboys...not so much. Which proves DVOA is correct

8
by Jeff Fogle :: Fri, 07/30/2010 - 1:01pm

I think the Cowboys fans had issues with this 5-year sequence bingo (I went through the web archives to get the past projections)...

2009:
FO projected Philly to be 1.2 wins better than Dallas, but both went 11-5

2008:
FO projected Philly to be 2.2 wins better than Dallas, but it was a half a game with 9-6-1 vs. 9-7

2007:
FO projected Philly to be 3.7 wins better than Dallas, but Dallas went 13-3 and Philly went 8-8

2006:
FO projected Philly to be 2.4 wins better than Dallas, but it was one win with 10-6 vs. 9-7

2005:
FO projected Philly to be 3.7 wins better than Dallas, but Dallas went 9-7 and Philly went 6-10.

Over the five years, Dallas was projected for 39.5 wins, but actually won 51 games. Philly was projected for 52.6 wins but only won 44. Philly was "supposed" to be 13 wins better than Dallas, but was seven worse.

So, after five years of "chill out and wait and see" with the preseason projections, Cowboys fans probably don't feel the need to do that this year.

Obviously the preseason projections involve a lot more than just DVOA, and a 10-year sampling wouldn't show the same thing as a 5-year sampling. But, to people in Dallas aware of the recent projections...they probably believe their prior complaints were justified, and there's no reason to chill out and wait this time around.

9
by bingo762 :: Fri, 07/30/2010 - 2:10pm

Good point. But whose been a more successful playoff team over that span?

12
by Jeff Fogle :: Fri, 07/30/2010 - 3:12pm

Jeez Bingo, you could look this stuff up yourself and type it in (lol).

Philly is 3-3, Dallas is 1-3. Not sure how to adjust for expectations there. Dallas was only supposed to make it past 8 wins once in five years...yet qualified for the playoffs three times and played four postseason games. Philly was supposed to reach 11 wins in three of five years, and 10 or more in four of the five. A 3-3 record seems reasonable for that.

The only head to head meeting was last year, which Dallas won handily. That was the only Dallas win though.

Head to Head in all games through the 5 years:
2005: Dallas 2-0
2006: Philly 2-0
2007: Split 1-1
2008: Split 1-1
2009: Dallas 3-0

Total: Dallas 7-4

So, I guess we're seeing that the Dallas side of the discussion would focus on their five-year superiority (not by a big margin, works out to one-game per year overall) and head-to-head performance...with FO predicting Philly would be better every single year by margins ranging from 1.2 to 3.7 games...and the Philly side would point to the playoffs.

14
by bingo762 :: Fri, 07/30/2010 - 3:22pm

I don't look at the projected wins as set in stone. I use it to give me an idea of if a team is gonna be bad, mediocre, good, or great. Sometimes teams play over their projected wins, sometimes under. When a team plays under but hasn't suffered significant injury, you can usually count on them to make a good playoff run, which matters alot more than the regular season(projections and real life) For example the '08 Eagles. High projection, mediocre regular season...where did they finish?

The Cowboys could very well finish with double digit wins, but I doubt they go anywhere in the playoffs. It's marked down right here. We'll see in a few months

26
by Temo :: Mon, 08/02/2010 - 1:11pm

"Why are cowboys fans crying?"

"Well, as you see by these numbers, FO projections have consistently underprojected the Cowboys' regular season record and have overprojected the Eagles' regular season record."

"Fine. But how do their post-season records match up?"

"..."

15
by The Powers That Be :: Fri, 07/30/2010 - 6:45pm

"Also love how the Cowboys fans cry that FO unfairly favors the Eagles. Meanwhile, over the past decade the Eagles have been perrenial NFC championship contenders. The Cowboys...not so much. Which proves DVOA is correct"

Jeff covered this in quite a bit of detail, but I just wanted to add a couple things. It's not just the relative projections of the Cowboys and Eagles, it's the absolute projections that make people scratch their heads.

From 2005-2010, FO has:
- projected the Eagles to win the NFCE five out of six times. They've done so once (out of five so far).
- underprojected the Eagles win total once (last year), and overprojected by at least 2.5 wins three times.
- projected the Cowboys to have a winning record zero times (they've had a winning record every year).

Given this history, it doesn't seem at all unreasonable for Cowboys fans to be skeptical of FO's projections for Dallas (under .500 and last in the NFCE) and Philadelphia (first in the NFCE).

19
by Key19 :: Sat, 07/31/2010 - 2:45am

And if you want really modern history, the Cowboys have won the NFC East in 2 of the last 3 years, with the Giants being the 3rd year of the 3. Yes, 0 for the Eagles.

The only possible argument in the Eagles' favor is playoff success. But even then, we stomped them last year (and three times total for complete and utter sweetness).

It can even be successfully argued that we single-handedly drove McNabb out of town, which I take great pride in. Even if Kolb is better, just knowing that McNabb can rot in D.C. with the likes of Joey Galloway, Malcolm Kelley, and many pathetic others (after having Jackson, Maclin, Celek, and Westbrook/McCoy) is sweet.

Bitter? Yeah, maybe I am. But you would be too if you were in my shoes. :)

20
by tuluse :: Sat, 07/31/2010 - 4:10am

As always matchups matter more than some idea of true team strength.

It is possible the Eagles are a better team overall than the Cowboys, but the Cowboys are built to defeat the Eagles.

I always look at projections as a fun exercise and not something to be taken seriously. I would rather have the Bears predicted to go 0-16 every year and win a Superbowl than the opposite.

10
by loneweasel (not verified) :: Fri, 07/30/2010 - 2:10pm

The SB Nation blogs, with rare exceptions, have become unapologetic hives of reflexive homerism, without any wit or insight, like a buch of mini-Pravdas.

11
by tuluse :: Fri, 07/30/2010 - 2:52pm

It's funny the only SB Nation blog I read is for the Chicago Bulls, and it is filled with pessimism. I figured they would all be like that.

25
by Temo :: Mon, 08/02/2010 - 1:08pm

Only SB Nation blog I read is the Nets', but I never thought that was representative of the sports community at large.

13
by Arson55 :: Fri, 07/30/2010 - 3:13pm

I used to hang out alot on Blogging the Boys, but I can't really take it anymore. I read the posts and then ignore the comments, because most of them are horrible.

Now I spend all of my time at the Texas Rangers blog, LoneStarBall, and am much happier for it.

18
by Key19 :: Sat, 07/31/2010 - 2:40am

I kind of like the comments. Some of the people are smart, some are idiots, and some are solid enough yet different in argument to provide various views along the spectrum of optimism/pessimism.

Blogging the Boys has great lead writers, which is why I come back to them all the time. They also have unbeatable training camp coverage (aside from the mothership site, which has interviews and such).

17
by dmb :: Sat, 07/31/2010 - 1:33am

Some of the hockey ones are pretty good, though I suppose you may have simply been referring to the football subset.

21
by Crushinator :: Sat, 07/31/2010 - 10:26am

My favorite part of these debates is the excuses that the bloggers find for them to be the exception to the rule. While its true that there are exceptions, is every team with a bad projection in FOA going to be "the exception"? It's the nature of the beast, some teams have to be worse.

Liked reading these though. I thought the Chargers one was both the most aggressive by them and the least statistically well defended. I don't really get how they can try and argue that Norv is a superior coach to Schottenheimer.

Even giving them Rivers, I can't think of another player that Norv has gotten more production out of then Schottenheimer did. Every good player on that team was a player that Schott brought in and developed, for the most part, and most of them had their best seasons under Schottenheimer.

I view Norv's Chargers like Herm Edward's Jets - A mediocre coach inheriting a talented squad and keeping their job for way too long by riding those talented aging veterans until they can't carry the team anymore and their own coaching and front office inadequacies become painfully apparent.

23
by chemical burn :: Sat, 07/31/2010 - 11:33pm

Yeah, my favorite bit in the Chargers one was the author saying "but you can't compare the 2008 Patriots to the 2010 Chargers - the Patriots replaced superstars like Jabbar Gaffney with losers like Sam Aiken, while the Chargers are bringing their entire WR core except for the best one! The Chargers are clearly in a better position to repeat their passing offense performance!" It's like, psychotic homerism... not that I even disagree that the Chargers passing offense could very easily be good, but he just has the worst reasoning for things...

24
by greybeard :: Sun, 08/01/2010 - 5:38pm

I don't know what the definition of "superior" would be in this case. I know that Norv has been much more successful with Chargers than Schott did. WRT bringing in players, I thought that was the GM not Schott.

I don't think the bloggers need any excuses though. FO has not been any good with their predictions in the last three years.

27
by ArrowSpread (not verified) :: Mon, 08/02/2010 - 2:12pm

ArrowheadPride, the most trafficked SBNation NFL fan site, isn't included?