Re: The Impact Of First-Round OL

References you guys enough, anyway.
(First?)

Re: The Impact Of First-Round OL

It's a very interesting discussion, but the sample size issues are a huge problem: on the one hand, even lumping every OL position in together doesn't really give as big a sample as you would like; on the other, it's far from clear that it's reasonable to expect players at different OL positions to have the same sorts of effects. Surely a left tackle ought to be expected to have more impact on pass blocking than a right tackle, who in turn should have more impact than a guard? And since left tackles are more valuable than guards, we should expect guards drafted at a given spot to be better guards than left tackles drafted there are left tackles, which means that the above scale ought to work in reverse for run-blocking: guards most, left tackles least. And of course what's important here is their NFL position, not their college position . . . and that get's complicated because of course for many players it changes.

We also need to remember that we are not comparing teams that drafted offensive linemen to teams that didn't draft anyone (Redskins notwithstanding). The number of first round picks exercised by the teams we're considering will be only very slightly higher than the league average over the period. So, for one thing, if teams that draft offensive linemen perform at roughly the same level going forwards as teams that don't, that's probably an indication that the market is pretty efficient when it comes to deciding when to draft OLs. Even if this weren't the case, we should always remember that talent identification is vastly more important than strategy. By far the most important question about Iupati and Davis is the one we won't know the answer to for at least a couple of years: how good are they?

Re: The Impact Of First-Round OL

It would be interesting to note the value of the replaced players. Were they league-average? This has implications when you consider that all choices are made against various alternative courses.

Maybe other positions have better first round rewards, or better high first round rewards. Or for the window you are interested in you might be better off getting a league-average free agent.

Re: The Impact Of First-Round OL

if you draft a first round OL you didn't draft another position.
It would be more interesting to me to see an analysis that was position wide.

what positions are over drafted and which are under drafted regarding increase in wins over the course of X years, especially when attempting to include the usual regression to mean.

I would expect WRs and QBs to be over drafted because of all the busts and expecting a low impact from even a good WR.
RB would peak early but again it is a "glamor" position that might over attract teams desperate to sell season tickets.

OL would likely be under drafted by these ticket desperate teams because casual fans rarely know their names.

However the Jags would be an example of a team that drafted linemen recently when desperate to sell tickets so without a large scale analysis those theories are just talk.

Re: The Impact Of First-Round OL

I just feel like that was a lot of statistical analysis to tell me that drafting O-Linemen high can be good... assuming the linemen themselves are actually good.

Re: The Impact Of First-Round OL

Bill Barnwell,

Your comment after the article, about the world ending in 2012 ALSO left out one key ingredient: SWAGGER.

If you draft a 1st round OL with it, he will make a 2012 season happen, simply by force of his swagger. Example: Recently, when I was feeling really confident but was stopped at a red light, I concentrated really hard and it turned green. Took like, I don't know, 45 seconds. Now THAT is the power of swagger, my friend. NO sitting at red lights for guys like me. In fact, it's pretty sunny and hot in Seattle right now. I'll turn my swagger up to eleven to cool things down and in about six hours, it'll be dark and cool, with maybe a light breeze off the lake.

Swagger, baby.

Re: The Impact Of First-Round OL

There was a lot of B.S. in there . " a team is awarded 6 points for crossing the opponent's goal line in possesion of the ball " . Really ? wow ! . I can't believe I wasted as much time as I did on this B.S. This guy should use about a third the words he does .