Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

20 Apr 2010

Jets Sign Jason Taylor

Adam Schefter reports that the Jets have signed linebacker Jason Taylor.

The deal is apparently two years for $13 million, but Taylor only realistically expects to see one year at about $3.75 million.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 20 Apr 2010

33 comments, Last at 22 Apr 2010, 8:05am by bavarian barbarian

Comments

1
by Led :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 3:21pm

I have no idea if he is going to be effective. Unless the Jets do something with Bryan Thomas (and I hope they don't), I assume Taylor will get limited snaps in passing downs and tutor Westerman, Gholston and whatever edge rusher they draft. He had 7 sacks last year and an 85% stop rate, but that doesn't tell me much. Anybody have insight into whether he has much left in the tank? I'm a little concerned that Miami's interest in keeping him was only lukewarm.

13
by JDOE137 (not verified) :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 6:00pm

Taylor has gas left in the tank. I think Rex knew exactly what kind of chance he was taking trying to get Taylor. It was a calculated risk on the Jet's part that has good upside. As far as Taylor getting 12-15 sacks, that seems a little optimistic, but if the Jets go blitz crazy with Taylor like I think they will, he has a good shot at reaching double-digit sacks.

As far as what I think of Taylor, I'm a huge Dolphins fan, so I will always have love for the guy. He has at least 2 times this year to prove to Miami they should have tried harder to keep him, and Miami will have 2 shots at proving he should have wited until after the draft.

But as far as Jason Taylor being a factor on the field, he still has to be accounted for. The Jets are putting together a mean team that thinks they are Superbowl bound. I think they will come back down to earth like Miami did last year.

The Jets will be lucky to split meetings against Miami this year. Signing a washed-up Tomlinson over Thomas Jones will prove unwise.

17
by Led :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 6:58pm

Tomlinson may be washed up but I still don't think they'll miss Jones. Greene and Washington are too good. They very well could come back down to earth anyway if Sanchez doesn't improve.

21
by JDOE137 (not verified) :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 8:53pm

I agree Washington and Greene are good runningbacks. But Tomlinson wasn't signed to be a complimentary back. He won't produce as consistently as Thomas Jones has done so reliably for NY the past several years. The Jets running game won't be as consistent as it has been. Too bad Jones will fade into obscurity on the Chiefs.

I think Sanchez will improve and I think he will be above average for NY in the next few years. It should be interesting to see how he progresses. Is he the next Joe Namath? Certainly not, just as Henne is no Marino.

Good luck. It should be a good year, and a bruiser of an AFC East division this year. Not including the Bills ofcourse. That goes without saying. Poor Bills...

2
by James-London :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 3:32pm

NOOOOOOOOO!!!

Great player in his day, still a good situational player, possible HoFer, he suffered on some bad teams and I'd like to see him finish on a high, but the FU*CKING JETS???

As a Miami fan, this sucks.

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

3
by loneweasel (not verified) :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 3:49pm

How does this work with the final 8 rule, that they can't sign any FA without losing someone with equivalent salary? I don't remember any UFA leaving the Jets who makes that much money.

5
by Dean :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 4:12pm

That only applies to guys whose contract expired. I'm not sure if Taylor falls in that category or not. If a guy was released by his former team, he's fair game to the final 8. That's one possibility anyway, although it may not be the correct one.

6
by Brendan Scolari :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 4:25pm

Thomas Jones?

8
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 5:05pm

jets lose jsy feely. he ufa that tema lose. so when lose feely could then sign a ufa. domt know if did sign any yet or if j tauylor considered a ufa or not

7
by Led :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 4:52pm

I think the 3.75 may include the 750k guaranteed for year 2. I also think the base salary for year 1 is the same as the base salary in Feely's contract with Arizona (1.75 or so) and the rest is performance incentives. I'm guessing that performance incentives (or certain kinds of them) don't count for the final 8 rules. Don't take any of this as gospel.

12
by loneweasel (not verified) :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 5:54pm

I wasn't aware Feeley got paid that much in AZ. Good for him I guess.

16
by tuluse :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 6:43pm

I'm going to guess that incentive work the same way they did with the salary cap, either likely-to-be-earned in which case they count, or not-likely-to-be-earned when they wouldn't.

4
by asdfasdf (not verified) :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 4:01pm

Also, how does 1 year/$3.75M, 2nd year @ $9.25M work with the 30% rule?

9
by Theo :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 5:06pm

They really are running for the Super Bowl this year.
Better than Gohlston, so an upgrade, they must have thought. Don't see what he can bring though, he's a 1 down player at right now.

10
by jackgibbs :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 5:15pm

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU etc.

11
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 5:31pm

J Taylor logn time dolphins, heart and soul of dolpshins fanbase, leave to go to hated Jets remind of K Malone leaving Utah Jazz to bo play for LA Lakers. Jazz fans coudlnot have been happy with Maline just like dolphsins fans probably mad and weirded out with taylor goingn t o Jets

15
by Theo :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 6:34pm

Hmmm not very impressive.

Johan Cruijff, then 36, going to Feyenoord after Feyenoord's arch rival Ajax didn't want to renew his contract, leading Feyenoord to their first championship in 10 years...
THAT will set up fan bases.

33
by bavarian barbarian (not verified) :: Thu, 04/22/2010 - 8:05am

For me Johann Cruift is like Dan Marino a superb player that never did win the big one (in his case the 1974 World Cup). National championships equal perhase the conference or division title.

Needed strongly to mention this. And today a dutch player scored the only goal for bayern. The times they are changing. To the good.

14
by devo (not verified) :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 6:15pm

A signing that's bound to make both fanbases angry. I love it.

18
by commissionerleaf :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 7:16pm

I don't understand the Jets love.

The Jets are a decent team that did well in the playoffs against a Bengals team missing half its defensive starters and a Chargers team that was always overrated. But they barely made the playoffs despite being gift wrapped two wins to end the season by Colts and Bengals teams that were playing their practice squads.

But Tomlinson is not an improvement, it is unlikely that Revis will appear as dominant a second consecutive year (cornerbacks rarely do), Sanchez may or may not be an NFL quarterback, and they lost Kerry Rhodes to free agency. The Jets are not even the best team in their division (even a bad Patriots team won the division last year). They are no lock to return to the playoffs.

That's not to say they aren't a good team, but all the "contend for the Super Bowl" stuff is a bit premature.

20
by tuluse :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 8:32pm

There were two Jets teams last year. One where Mark Sanchez played mediocre or better, and one where he played worse. The former team went 8-3 including a playoff win, and the latter team went 2-5 including a playoff win.

So the idea is that if Sanchez improves in his 2nd year (which historically, most QBs do), the Jets will be that former team.

23
by breakz (not verified) :: Wed, 04/21/2010 - 1:41am

Actually, it's usually year 3 or 4. Can't think of a QB who's taken a leap from year 1 to 2, particularly someone who started like Sanchez.

The point is: when Sanchez played "mediocre or better" it's because the coaches ran the ball. He averaged 145 ypg and had a 2:4 TD/INT ratio during Weeks 12-16. Those numbers didn't help the Jets reach the playoffs.

Okay wait, all the talking heads are right: Sanchez is a franchise QB. He's the JETS franchise QB, because he needs the Jets rushing attack, O-line and defense to support him--otherwise, he wouldn't even start!

25
by tuluse :: Wed, 04/21/2010 - 1:58am

QBs who turn out good usually improve every year until they're about 30, but the big jumps historically are year 2 and year 5.

Can't think of a QB who's taken a leap from year 1 to 2, particularly someone who started like Sanchez.

QBs who had a big improvement year 1 to year 2:

Peyton Manning
Troy Aikman
John Elway
Drew Bledsoe
Kerry Collins

You couldn't think of any of them?

26
by ammek :: Wed, 04/21/2010 - 3:21am

Also Donovan McNabb: he had the worst DYAR and DVOA in the league in his first season. PFR rated him 80 in 1999, 100 (which is precisely average) in 2000. Sanchez scored 76 in his first year.

The Jets should be dangerous if Sanchez improves to a league-average level.

30
by breakz (not verified) :: Wed, 04/21/2010 - 11:39am

Aikman went from 159/9/11 (ypg/TD/INT) to 171/11/18, but you're right--the other four took a big leap forward.

There have been some other guys since 2000 (McNabb, Brady, Cutler are a few) but none of them were as atrocious during year 1 as Sanchez. None of the guys you mentioned played as poorly as Sanchez during their rookie seasons.

32
by tuluse :: Wed, 04/21/2010 - 7:58pm

Aikman improved his completion percentage by 4%, his yards per attempt by .5 yards, and lowered his interception percentage by 2%.

I would say that constitutes a fairly large improvement.

29
by Mr Shush :: Wed, 04/21/2010 - 10:28am

Lewin's research suggested that on average the biggest improvement for quarterbacks was years 1 to 2 and 4 to 5. If there's any group of players that's less likely to be true of, it's ones who have great rookie seasons (Roethlisberger, Ryan) not relatively bad ones like Sanchez.

31
by breakz (not verified) :: Wed, 04/21/2010 - 11:40am

I'll look into Lewin's work...do you have a link?

22
by Raiderjoe :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 11:42pm

not really fan od defending jets but going top do anyway. lost 5 gams late- bills ot when sabnchez throw 5 interceps, jaguars and falcs beat jets on final play, jets blow teo games cvs dolphina. get cheap win vs clors. otrher games not weird.
9-7 record but 1-5 in close or weird or asteticky games. so could think jets 8-2 and then got to 9 wins when clots take out P. manning and put in Painter s snd then go from 2 looses to 7 with very bad end of game luck. most temas (whether bad or good) lose 1 or 2 gams a year at very end of game, but jets lose 5 times liekt ghat in 2009. not likel to happen agian.
this is why pick jets to win afce eats in 2010. pates 2ne, dols 3rd, bills 4th
good chance Raiders vs Ravnes or texams or jets in afc champiosnhip game

28
by Mr Shush :: Wed, 04/21/2010 - 10:26am

I really hope you're right about that last bit, RJ, but as a Texans fan I really can't see the Texans in the conference championship game. Making the playoffs as a wild card, maybe (though given the murderous schedule I think even that's unlikely), but beating out the Colts for the division or winning two playoff games? I just don't buy it. The Ravens and Jets are certainly threats, in my book.

19
by Dice :: Tue, 04/20/2010 - 8:07pm

Rhodes was traded, but your points still stand.

24
by breakz (not verified) :: Wed, 04/21/2010 - 1:44am

As a Fins fan I'm sad to see him go. Especially since I think he won't win a championship with the Jets this year.

27
by Biebs (not verified) :: Wed, 04/21/2010 - 9:35am

Sanchez had 4 games where he threw 3+ INTs and 0 or 1 TDs. That was matched by Jay Cutler, and the most by any QB since Grossman threw 5 of those games in 2006.

Unsurprisingly, the Jets were 0-4 in those games. Sanchez doesn't even have to be above average, he just needs to cut down on the terrible throws.

It seems overly simplistic to say, the Jets will only go as far as Sanchez will take him, but it's pretty much true (Though, it's more like, the Jets will only go as far as Sanchez will them)

Of course, they did sign 3 30+ players and have had some good luck with injuries the past few seasons (Kris Jenkins and Leon Washington aside) so that could derail the season pretty fast.

I sitll think that the Tomlinson for Jones move was pretty much a wash since the Chargers line was pretty terrible. But that could be the homer in me talking.

Some Jets fans are oturaged by the signing because it's Jason Taylor, but I don't really think it's a big deal.