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26 Jul 2010
MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
In his return to work, our intrepid SI correspondent prepares for his annual training camp tour, almost gets in a fight, explains the 357th reason (approximate total) that Lane Kiffin is a snake, tells us why we should all feel very, very sorry for the bass player of Kings of Leon, and remembers Kaye Cowher.
24 comments, Last at 27 Jul 2010, 10:44pm by Nathan
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» Super Bowl XLVI Quick Reads
Eli Manning and Tom Brady were nearly equal in value in the Super Bowl. One of them had to lose. What effect will that have on their legacies? Plus, the best players of Super Bowl XLVI and the game's DVOA ratings.
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Comments
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
Had a chance to catch Tanier on 980 here in d.c this weekend. Good to see the outsiders getting some recognition. Haven't read any PK in a while.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
Actually it's the bass player we should feel sorry for.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
According to the local press (I live in STL), the previous two bands had the same problem. They solved it by simply moving over a few feet from where the guano was being dropped. I guess when your a big name, it's easier to throw a fit. Like PK at the elevator.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
I dunno, that seems like something that it would just depend on the band. Especially if something else happened at the venue and you were already ticked, you might just be like "yeah, we can't do this." People just have different thresholds of disgusting.
"Like PK at the elevator."
Didn't seem like a fit to me. I mean, it's him telling the story, so who knows - but from that telling, it's the other guy who threw the fit. I probably would've handled it a little differently (starting off by saying "Sir, we're all waiting in line for the elevator" and then going with the "you're also an ---" lines, but that's just personal preference.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
This idiot reports that Drew Brees is entering the "final year of his deal" ... Brees signed for 6 yrs in 2006 ... which means it's his fifth year. Did anything void the last year of the deal?
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
I love how he says that Manning and Brady "struggled" in the playoffs. I'm sure it's because of the 2-3 record.
Of course he also miscalculates Manning's YPA (it's 7.74 over those 5 games), and leaves out his passer rating of 97.4.
Maybe the 2-3 record had way more to do with other things and not so much to do with the QB "struggling". Sigh. When will people learn?
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
When will you learn not to click that link? Everyone knows PK writes stupid stuff.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
Brady got manhandled by the Ravens.
Manning, though, hasn't struggled in the playoffs for a long time.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
And Manning gets dinged for struggling in the playoffs last year "in his head-to-head match-up versus Brees," even though prior to the Super Bowl Manning was playing the position of QB as well as almost anyone has ever played it, including a game against the NFL's best pass defense in the Jets.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
As well as Manning played, Brees played better. But it was really the Saints' high-risk high-reward strategies and their special teams execution that won them the game.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
Well, no, not really.
The Colts offense netted 1.25 points per drive. The Saints offense netted 3 points per drive. So the onsides kick - when successful - would be expected to be worth one extra drive, worth 1.25 to 3 points. You might add a bit for field position. On the other hand, in the end the Saints did not gain a drive nor did the Colts lose a drive, so the onsides kick might only be worth a point or so for slightly better field position.
A successful two-point conversion is worth 1 extra point. It all adds up to 2 to 4 points for the high-risk strategy.
A pick-six is worth 7 points plus lost field position, which was worth about 3 points in this case. Call it around 10 points for one very bad play.
Manning's big mistake did more than twice as much damage as the successful high-risk/high-reward strategies of the Saints.
Manning played most of a good game, but did huge harm to his team in the fourth quarter. All told, that's not a good game, just an uneven one.
Mrs. Lincoln enjoyed most of the play, too.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
Interception return length is highly random, and Reggie Wayne should typically be expected to win a 1-on-1 matchup with Tracy Porter on a short route. Tracy Porter just made the single best play of his lifetime at the exact right moment.
Watch that play a few times. Something we learn at FO is to judge decisions and play on the process - on what is likely to happen if you repeat the experiment multiple times - not necessarily on what actually did happen. And if you repeat that play a hundred times, it's going to be a catch far more often than it's going to be a pick-six.
What happened there was that Porter took a gamble, guessed that it was a 5-yard-route, and came back and got in front of the NFL's most reliable receiver. Wayne should've come back further towards the ball; they always tell you not to let the corner get in front of you on routes like that. I realize he was thinking about the first down, but he needed to get in better position.
The quality of your play is not the sum of all of the yards gained or points scored on plays you were involved in. Points scored is the end goal, and one in which the Colts fared relatively poorly, but that is absolutely more attributable to Tracy Porter, Garret Hartley, and the butterfingers of Hank Baskett than it is to Peyton Manning.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
It was Wayne's, Porter's, Baskett's, and Hartley's fault. It was luck. It was guessing.
Peyton? Is that you?
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
Interception returns are not random, they are non-predictive. QB's don't have a built in "ability" to throw interceptions with long returns, so you can't use past pick-sixes to predict future ones. But that doesn't mean that pick-sixes don't have causes.
Some pick-sixes are caused by wild broken-field runs with inexpert blockers clearing a path through inexpert tacklers. Others are caused almost entirely by where the ball was thrown by the quarterback, whose job it is to read the defense and throw the ball to the right place.
Guess which one this was.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
The most upsetting thing about the article is the radical over-rating of Ben Roethlisberger. He has one season in which he ranked in the top 10 QBs in DYAR or DVOA--the previous two he ranked right behind Derek Anderson and then Seneca Wallace (!). Taking last season as his best case, he's solidly the #8 QB at a significant drop-off from Schaub and Romo, and standard stats seem to put him behind Rodgers as well. So without taking into account off-field antics, let's say he's the 8th- or 9th-best QB in the league.
Now add the fact that he's good for at least one non-football injury, sexual assault charge, or suspension per offseason.
But Peter King has him, not as the 5th-best QB, but #5 out of all players in the NFL! He says elsewhere that Revis is the best non-QB, so that must mean Roethlisberger is better than all of Ryan Clady, Andre Johnson, Patrick Willis, Chris Johnson, Demarcus Ware, etc, etc, etc...
But I guess he did "win" that Super Bowl where he delivered the worst big-game QB performance in history. And obviously he's more responsible for the next one than James Harrison. He's a QB after all. And we're not reading Monday Morning Football Player.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
"He's a QB after all"
And there is extra value to just being a good QB over any other position. So when comparing to those other players, you might be able to argue that most QB are "better" (if you mean more value or more important) than Clady, Johnson, etc.
As far as how high Roethlisberger is ranked, I'm guessing it's only partly because of the Super Bowls, and mostly because of the feeling that he wins games for the Steelers that no other QB would, thus giving him a bump despite sometimes pedestrian stats.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
Big Ben has 3 top 8 finishes in DVOA, including a #2.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
shhh, Jeff M is showing us his Peter King- esque ability to use the website.
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Men are more ready to repay an injury than a benefit because gratitude is a burden and revenge a pleasure.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
A few other comments:
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
Nailed with that "NOT" reference. That's actually slang so outdated that PK might get it.
This is totally subjective and probably a waste of time to debate, but I'd put Jolley above someone like Driver, who is a good cog in a deep WR corps.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
Optisism everywhere? In dertoit amd kansas cuty too?
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
FOA 2010 gives Kansas City fans optimism.
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
Relative optimism.
I'm sure Detroit fans are thinking they'll field a mediocre team, which is a large step up from the team Millen "built."
Re: MMQB: Optimism Is Everywhere
That's 41 percent of the league with the same shot the past three Super Bowl winners had entering the year they won it. Take that to Vegas, put $20 on each team and, hey, you should make more than $260.
BRAIN EXPLODES.
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