Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

13 Aug 2010

Ty Warren Out For Season

Patriots defensive lineman Ty Warren is out for the season after tearing the labrum in his hip. The Patriots placed him on IR today.

They also added Derrick Burgess to the roster.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 13 Aug 2010

26 comments, Last at 16 Aug 2010, 4:48pm by RichC

Comments

1
by MJK :: Fri, 08/13/2010 - 9:20pm

Although, from what I've heard, whether or not he's on the roster, Burgess has yet to actually, you know, show up at practice...

This is a big blow for the Pats. Warren doesn't get as many headlines as Wilfork does or Seymour did, and isn't going to break any sack records, but he's solid. He's strong against the run, and consistently ties up enough of the O-line's attention that the LB's have a shot at the QB (the defensive failings last year had more to do with not having any LB's that could do anything with a shot at the QB when they had one). The Pats' defense really suffered the last couple of years in games where Warren was out.

Hopefully, Gerard Warren helps take the sting of this loss out, but counting on former Raiders (with the notable exception of Randy Moss) hasn't worked out too well for the Pats in recent years...

2
by Jon Frum (not verified) :: Fri, 08/13/2010 - 10:56pm

Burgess reported this morning.

3
by a b (not verified) :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 12:48am

footbal

4
by Basilicus :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 10:28am

It's a blow, but the Pats get to enjoy the AFC East, where they're still far superior to their rivals (despite all the talk of a Super Bowl-bound Jets team).

Brady's in his second year back from an injury from which it normally takes more than a year to normalize (and won't be playing a historically difficult set of pass defenses this year), that young defense is a year more experienced, the running backs are reliable again at last. They may have a subpar Welker, but he'll come along as the season progresses; Edelman looks like a solid substitute. The Jets are just as likely to take a step back as hold steady, Miami's way too old and beat up in some crucial positions, and Buffalo's still Buffalo until they're Toronto, at which point they'll still be Buffalo.

5
by t.d. :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 10:31am

They should just give the Pats a bye into the playoffs

18
by The Ninjalectual :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 11:52pm

cancel the season now

6
by Noah of Arkadia :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 10:42am

Wow, that's what I call emptying the kool-aid bucket in one gulp. By my reckoning,the AFC East is one of the toughest divisions in the league.

The only position in which Miami's too old and possibly beat up once someone's actually, you know, beat up, is RB. And they've got some nice young backs waiting in the wings in Cobbs and Hilliard. Not to mention a much improved passing game.

7
by MPavao (not verified) :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 10:46am

How are the Dolphins old? They're one of the youngest teams in the league. You sound like an overly optimistic Patriots fan. The AFC East is going to be extremely tough this year.

9
by Andrew Potter :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 12:59pm

Enjoy the AFC East?

ENJOY the AFC East?

I'm a Patriots fan, and I haven't ENJOYED the AFC East since Randy Moss decided the Dolphins cornerbacks were his personal pets in '07. That was back in the good old days of Cam Cameron and Eric Mangini.

Bill Parcells and Rex Ryan have made the AFC East a very not-enjoyable experience for this Patriots fan. Nick Kaczur and Stephen Neal look likely to help maintain that lack of enjoyment this season. The last thing the Patriots needed was a key injury on defence, and so... Murphy duly obliged.

I don't get the impression anybody connected with the Patriots is likely to be enjoying the AFC East (Buffalo aside) again for quite some time.

Buffalo's still Buffalo until they're Toronto, at which point they'll still be Buffalo.

This bit was funny, at least.

10
by jackgibbs :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 1:09pm

agreed. this post requires an inquiry into the sobriety of the commenter

11
by justanothersteve :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 1:16pm

Beware of the electric kool-aid.

14
by Jimmy :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 6:02pm

The Pats not only play the AFC East (which I suspuct will be tougher than you do) but also the AFC North and NFC North. There aren't many gimme games in there next year.

8
by jackgibbs :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 12:03pm

FUUUUUUUUUUUUU...

derrick burgess makes it even worse. maybe shawn crable will stay healthy this seaso...

12
by PatsFan :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 4:50pm

Pats cut Crable a while ago.

13
by jackgibbs :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 4:54pm

I know.

15
by Jimmy :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 6:04pm

Thank heavens the Pats have an extra 1st round pick next year instead of Richard Seymour.

16
by Jim G (not verified) :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 9:25pm

Let me correct that for you, as I can see into the future:

"Thank heavens the Pats have two extra second round picks and a fourth next year instead of Richard Seymour."

Is there any doubt they will trade down?

April means taxes and the Pats trading down.

17
by Mr Shush :: Sat, 08/14/2010 - 11:43pm

At no point in Belichick's time with the Patriots have they held a top ten pick and not exercised a top ten pick in that same year's draft. Assuming Oakland suck again (and you can count me well and truly out of the "Oakland 8-8 or maybe even a little better" nonsense that appears to be doing the rounds), I highly doubt the Pats will be trading down more than a couple of spots. Turning their own first rounder into a second and odds and sods, maybe. Also, I think that pick will be worth significantly more than 2 second rounders and a 2012 4th.

21
by RichC (not verified) :: Sun, 08/15/2010 - 11:29pm

Much more likely its :

The patriots have a 2011 2nd Rounder, a 2012 First Rounder, a 2012 2nd Rounder, and a 2012 3rd rounder.

They never trade down without moving up. That being said, Belichick has never traded out of the top 10.

19
by Jon Frum (not verified) :: Sun, 08/15/2010 - 4:00pm

The Patriots played their hand correctly with Seymour. Whatever happens after that is the luck of the draw. The franchise is going to be playing next year, and the next and the next. They maximized value over time - the games they play two years from now will matter just as much as the games they play now. They made the grown-up choice, not the fanboy feed-me-now choice. That's the kind of management I like.

20
by loneweasel (not verified) :: Sun, 08/15/2010 - 9:13pm

"The franchise is going to be playing next year, and the next and the next."

And one of these years, Brady will not.

22
by RichC (not verified) :: Sun, 08/15/2010 - 11:32pm

"And one of these years, Brady will not.

So? Do you think the Patriots are just going to shut the doors when Brady retires? Great QBs are hard to find, but the franchises that are built well seem to have a much easier time.

Don't forget, they won all their SBs when Brady was a young 24TD, 18INT, middle of the league by DVOA guy (1.4% in '01, 5.4% in '03, 32% in '04), not the worldbeater he is today.

23
by Mr Shush :: Mon, 08/16/2010 - 10:06am

As your numbers bear out, the Patriots won two of their Superbowls with Brady playing at a roughly league average level, but by 2004 he was clearly an elite quarterback. Doesn't really alter your point, though.

I would say, however, that it's also worth noting that Belichick is coming up on 60. It's not impossible that he will decline or retire before Brady does. Then again, Belichick moving upstairs to GM and appointing his own successor, a la Walsh, might be a pretty successful approach, at least for a while. People seem to be able to carry on being good GMs a lot longer than they can coaching, understandably.

24
by Andrew Potter :: Mon, 08/16/2010 - 11:16am

So? Do you think the Patriots are just going to shut the doors when Brady retires? Great QBs are hard to find, but the franchises that are built well seem to have a much easier time.

His point appears to have been that they need to plan for that eventuality, not that they'll fall apart when it happens. Hence the future pick being more valuable than having Richard Seymour right now.

You appear to be taking great exception to something that was never implied, much less stated.

25
by Noah of Arkadia :: Mon, 08/16/2010 - 12:06pm

They'll bring back Cassell or hand the reigns to an undrafted FA from nowhere and be perfectly all right.

26
by RichC (not verified) :: Mon, 08/16/2010 - 4:48pm

His response was in contradiction to the suggestion that the Pats were thinking about the future. He most certainly WAS implying that they should be thinking about now because Brady will retire.