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07 Feb 2010

Why Are The Saints Five-Point Underdogs?

Neil Paine at pro-football-reference.com uses their retrodictive SRS system to try and figure out why the Saints are a five-point dog today.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 07 Feb 2010

11 comments, Last at 08 Feb 2010, 11:16am by B

Comments

1
by Jeff Fogle :: Sun, 02/07/2010 - 6:16pm

"So why are the Colts 5-point favorites instead, and why have very few people (other than FO's Aaron Schatz) given the Saints a chance to win?"

Indy is a 5-point favorite because so few people are giving them a chance to win. Well, not so few that the line is 10, 14, or 21...but you get the point.

The top bettors in Vegas have been very clear on why they like Indy to win (reportedly a 7-figure bet on Indy at the moneyline price according to the Las Vegas Review Journal). Statheads have been very clear on why New Orleans may be offering value plus the points.

Could you guys please, PRETTY please, PRETTY PLEASE WITH QUESO ON TOP show what DVOA is for Indy and NO in their last six meaningful games only (and equate it to a neutral field point differential)...to help shed light on the possibility that recent form is being weighted heavier than full season stuff in the market. That plus 1-2 points "favorite inflation" because of public betting tendencies could well explain it today's line.

And, if it turns out that those six meaningful games are even, could we consider the possibility that the market weighs turnovers differently than you do? I promise I'll go away for awhile if you do that.

This line just isn't a mystery in Vegas. There is a nice money-based debate between different sets of sharp bettors though at today's price. Strong passions on either side...though the Indy passion is on the moneyline and the NO passion is plus the points. A window for both to cash.

Not a headache for Vegas if that happens though because the public tends to lay points with favorites and take moneylines with dogs. Gotta be a fun day at the ticket windows.

2
by Lou :: Sun, 02/07/2010 - 6:21pm

i can't figure it out either. weren't they 6 point favorites over the Bears 3 years ago? With marvin harrison and tarik glenn, wasn't the playoff version of that Colts team better than this one?

And as much as i love my Bears, this Saints team is much better than they were. I look forward to a good game.

3
by Jeff Fogle :: Sun, 02/07/2010 - 6:47pm

Looks like DVOA has the Saints and Bears in a virtual dead heat in both normal and weighted. This year's Indy is worse in weighted than the prior squad from what I'm gathering from the pulldowns.

Indy won that won 29-17 (or 22-10 if you take out a kick return TD for Chi, and a pick six for Indy). Total yardage was 430-265, keyed by a 38-22 edge in time of possession.

4
by Jeff Fogle :: Sun, 02/07/2010 - 7:25pm

Looks like last second line is 4.5 most everywhere, total of 56.5. Moneylines in the 190-200 range. Best of luck everyone...

5
by RickD :: Mon, 02/08/2010 - 1:08am

Post-game thought:

The Colts were big favorites because they looked much better against the Jets than the Saints did against the Vikings.

What do we know now? The Vikings are a stronger team than the Jets.

6
by Marko :: Mon, 02/08/2010 - 1:18am

But didn't we already know that the Vikings were stronger than the Jets?

7
by DavidL :: Mon, 02/08/2010 - 2:14am

The thinking was never that the Vikings were a weaker (or even) team with the Jets, but that the Colts were a stronger team than the Vikings. Which is true, but shockingly, football teams sometimes play better or worse from week to week.

8
by Still Alive (not verified) :: Mon, 02/08/2010 - 2:35am

It absolutely amazes me how much analysis here, and particularly elsewhere, blatantly ignores that fact.

When playing hockey it would be very common in a tournament where were weren't the best team but won it all to say, "Wow we played great", or "Wow we got lucky", or "Wow our goalie really stepped it up". Very little of the time would we say "That just goes to show we were the best". Maybe we were super humble guys, but I always got the impression that athletes understand there is a lot of variation ind ay to day performance.

If we were number 15 in the state and beat number 2 we didn't suddenly think we were number 2, we were just happy we had won that particular day.

9
by Annie Nonymous (not verified) :: Mon, 02/08/2010 - 2:52am

But why on earth would anyone consider the Jets, a team that backed into the playoffs and only advanced to the AFC Championship Game because of a handful of lucky missed FGs by their opponents' kickers, equal to or better than the Vikings, a team that had clearly been one of the best in the league all season long? That's the problem I have with these lines - they're so overly focused on recent games and fluke outcomes like the Jets' run, and ignore a consistent pattern of dominance all season. That's why they overvalued the Colts, whose gaudy record belied luck in close games, and undervalued the Saints, the league's best team by point margin all season. The Saints won a victory for season-long dominance indicators tonight, because this was no upset, or at least shouldn't have been viewed as one.

10
by t.d. :: Mon, 02/08/2010 - 8:59am

While the Jets benefitted from the missed field goals, it's disingenuous to say that was the difference in the San Diego game. If things had been different, they would have been different. That game was 17-7 at one point. While I don't think they were a good team all season, at the end of the year, they were.

11
by B :: Mon, 02/08/2010 - 11:16am

The Colts were 5 points favorites cause they won every game they tried to, up to this point. What that analysis forgets is the Colts needed 5 4th quarter comebacks to keep that record, which suggests they weren't as good as their records indicates.

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