Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

06 Oct 2011

Chad Henne Out for Year

The underrated Chad Henne will now be unrated because he will be un-playing. Henne will have shoulder surgery on his dislocated non-throwing shoulder and is done for the season. The 0-4 Dolphins now have Matt Moore as starting quarterback and may look to bring in one of any number of veterans who also won't really help things. Andrew Luck as Dan Marino's heir? Could happen.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 06 Oct 2011

30 comments, Last at 08 Oct 2011, 8:36am by BJR

Comments

1
by bubqr :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 12:20pm

It will sure make for an interesting offseason for the Dolphins.

2
by jklps :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 12:33pm

Looks like Indy officially has new competition.

11
by zlionsfan :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 2:54pm

Better tell the defense that. They didn't get the memo. (And Miami would appreciate it if you do, because then the competition might be between Miami on their own and Miami trading up into St. Louis' spot because even if Bradford isn't great, they still aren't drafting another QB.)

26
by jebmak :: Fri, 10/07/2011 - 10:00am

If you are talking about the Miami D, then there are no worries. It is terrible. 21.5%, 31st in the league. This gives them a real shot at last.

30
by BJR :: Sat, 10/08/2011 - 8:36am

Look at who they have played. NE, HOU and SD are likely to be top 5 offences. The Miami defence is not that bad. I mean, I'm not saying they are good, but wait for opponent adjustments to properly in before you dismiss them as terrible.

3
by Nathan :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 12:38pm

MUAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAH THE PENNINGTON CURSE STRIKES AGAIN

27
by jebmak :: Fri, 10/07/2011 - 11:21am

Damn you odd numbers years!

4
by Anonymous(not that one) (not verified) :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 1:07pm

The best part is how woefully unprepared the team is to go without Henne. They had opportunities to sign or trade for players before the season, but passed them up. Jeff Ireland is not a good GM, Bill Parcells is not a good football mind. This team is right back where it started. And never really climbed out.

7
by Drunkmonkey :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 1:32pm

I feel the best part is that they had a chance to sign Drew Brees, but opted instead to trade for Daunte Culpepper. That is by far better then any thing else they've done since that gaffe.

15
by RickD :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 3:48pm

"Bill Parcells is not a good football mind."

Bill Parcells is not longer associated with the Dolphins.

And he's got a good football mind. That really should be beyond contest at this point.

5
by Sergio :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 1:11pm

I'm actually glad for him. He's a FA after this season, let him go elsewhere where hopefully he gets a half decent OL and receivers that drop less than 50% of their targets (that's Marshall. Everyone else has done a fine job catching).

He is the best QB we've had since Marino (no offense to Pennington, but injuries did him in) and no one has been able to appreciate it because they expect Marino, nothing less. Well, you got your wish, Dolfans. Henne's gone.

/No, I'm not bitter. Why do you ask?

-- Go Phins!

6
by Drunkmonkey :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 1:30pm

So I'm not really a follower of the Dolphins, and I really only cheer for them when they play teams I don't like, but I thought they had a half decent offensive line the last few years. Again, I'm not a follower, so I don't really know anything special about the Dolphins. Is it just Long and a bunch of nobody's, or what?

8
by TayloreatsBrady (not verified) :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 1:40pm

Its a loooooong story.
1. Our coach is an o-line guy who can never stop tinkering with the o-line. None of the prospects ever panned out. The line never got a chance to gel. So yes, it was Jake Long plus a bunch of guys.
2. Chad Henne couldn't get it done in the red zone. His coaches taught him that FGs are worthy of celebration. He was great between the 20s.
3. Henne's potential game-winning drives always ended with an INT or a turnover on downs.
4. As a Dolphin fan, I am in full Suck for Luck mode.

12
by Sergio :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 2:58pm

Regarding 2: I would argue that supporting cast and playcalling played a big role there. Henne had a chance for about 5 extra TDs so far this season, dropped by his WRs. In other plays, Daboll apparently think we're the Lions and the play is a lousy fade in the endzone that Henne simply can't throw. Put that inability on Henne, sure, but as a coach I would expect someone would eventually wise up and disregard that option. We rarely (if ever, I don't recall a single instance all season) tried using Daniel Thomas in the endzone... in the couple of games he has been active.

But regarding the OL question... this season in particular, it's been an awful disaster. Which is a shame, because this season Henne had been showing tremendous improvement. Say what you want about the "between the 20s" performance, he moved the team downfield with relative ease. But this was the season that Sparano chose to show the world Marc Colombo was still a worthy starting RT, shoving previous starting RG Vernon Carey into RG (a position change he's still adjusting to). Factor in a rookie C, a gimpy elite LT (knee and back injuries that look like are still bothering him) and a LG that is great in run but lousy in pass blocking, and you're looking at a very bad situation for anyone. Henne didn't have a chance.

-- Go Phins!

9
by Anonymous1 (not verified) :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 1:40pm

Henne has a few solid games per year, but I'm not a fan of him in the least. He reminds me of myself, someone with enough natural ability to impress, but who wilts when the chips are down.

I'd take Jay Fiedler and Pennington over Henne in a heartbeat.

10
by MJK :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 2:24pm

You'd have to take both Fiedler and Pennington, because neither would make it through a season on their own.

13
by Sergio :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 2:59pm

Pennindler?

I don't think even putting both those arms together we'd get Henne's or close...

-- Go Phins!

14
by Nathan :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 3:19pm

Everyone always talks about Henne's cannon but I can't recall ever seeing him make a "wow" throw like I occasionally see from Cutler, or Vick, or Stafford, or any of the other "big armed" QBs in the league. Granted, I don't watch more than probably 4-5 Dolphins games a year, but I've already seen Newton make a few "wow" throws. Hell, I've even seen Mallett make a couple "wow" throws in the 1 preseason game I watched.

16
by JasonK :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 4:04pm

And welcome to Miami, Sage Rosenfels.

Seriously.

23
by andrew :: Fri, 10/07/2011 - 7:15am

Welcome back Sage... (Miami-Houston-Minnesota-New York-Miami)

17
by Thunderbolt of ... :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 4:51pm

Since Henne is a free agent, and public reaction in Miami seems to be against him, I can't see him re-signing with the Dolphins So where will Henne sign after this year? He hasn't lit the world on fire, but I don't think anyone would argue that Miami is a team that is currently built for the QB to succeed. Henne seems to have all the physical tools to be a good QB (assuming he recovers from his injury), but could get better at the mental aspect of the game.

In my opinion, his ideal situation would be to sign with a decent team with an aging or inconsistent QB and sit for a year or two to learn the system, then have another shot at being the starter. Indianapolis (assuming they don't get Luck)? Washington? San Francisco? (gulp) Oakland?

18
by Dan :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 5:26pm

FO stats have Henne as a very average QB. His passing DVOA has been between 4% and 8% in each of the past 3 seasons (2009-2011), and his rank in passing DYAR has ranged from 17th to 19th.

With so many rookie QBs drafted early this year, and another crop coming in next year, this might be a bad time for a QB like Henne to hit the market. Teams without a good QB mostly seem like they have a young starter who they aren't ready to give up on, or have their next QB waiting in the wings, or would prefer a rookie, or would stick with their current caretaker.

I'll guess Washington & San Francisco as the most likely destinations, since they aren't particularly attached to their QBs and could do too well to get a good rookie.

19
by tylerdolphin :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 10:22pm

Is Henne horrible? No. he is not the biggest problem on the team. Ill freely admit that. BUT...the NFL has changed. Its a passing league. The rules favor explosive offenses. Henne is a serviceable stopgap QB, but he will seldom take over a game. He lacks the ability to consistently beat defenses when it counts. He put up huge numbers vs. the Patriots because their D is horrible and they were playing a soft zone for a good chunk of the game. When do or die time comes, Henne folds up right on cue.

Basically the point here is that we will never win anything of major significance with Henne at QB. We will make the playoffs with a great supporting cast and promptly get bounced by a team with a legit QB. Average QBs dont cut it anymore. The days of winning a SB completely on the defense's back are gone. We need a good-great QB, not average.

SUCK FOR LUCK 2012!

20
by PerlStalker :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 10:58pm

Half serious, half joking: Could Miami be on the phone with Denver shopping for any of their QBs? Orton and Quinn are both in the last year of their contracts (trade 'em while you can) and Tebow playing in FL again would do fun things for Miami's attendance numbers (for a while).

I could see Denver trading any one of their QBs for the right price. Unfortunately, Miami's need just drove the price up.

21
by tylerdolphin :: Thu, 10/06/2011 - 11:35pm

With this regime, nothing surprises me anymore.

29
by Sifter :: Fri, 10/07/2011 - 5:25pm

Well they already tried that earlier in the year for Orton and that fell through. But...depends on the future plans. Sparano probably gets canned after this year, so it might just be better to tank the season and play for a rookie QB who a new coach and/or new GM can start afresh with.

22
by BigCheese :: Fri, 10/07/2011 - 2:23am

Why isn't David Garrard on this team already? Or on the Colts? Seriously, what am I missing?

- Alvaro

Phil Simms is to analysts what Ryan Leaf is to NFL QBs

24
by andrew :: Fri, 10/07/2011 - 7:16am

They apparently tried and failed to sign Garrard.

Apparently Garrard prefers unemployment to the Dolphins...

25
by Whatev :: Fri, 10/07/2011 - 9:35am

Dang, yo.

28
by DisplacedPackerFan :: Fri, 10/07/2011 - 11:58am

Garrad and Delhomme both turned down offers from Miami because Miami wouldn't guarantee the contract.

So yeah Garrard prefers unemployment to the Dolphins... Nevermind move along. :)