Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

17 Nov 2011

DVOA-Based Fantasy Strength of Schedule (Updated)

A few weeks ago, I posted DVOA-based fantasy schedule strengths for Weeks 7 to 16. It was received reasonably well, and several readers asked if I'd update it later in the season. Well, I have good news! Ask, and ye shall receive.

Just to remind everyone, the table below shows the strength of schedule for each team based on the average pass defense DVOAs and run defense DVOAs of its opponents. I've ranked the strengths of schedule from toughest (first) to easiest (32nd). Finally, because we're quickly approaching the fantasy playoffs, this time I've separated the schedule strengths for Weeks 11 to 13 (i.e., the rest of the fantasy regularly season) and Weeks 14 to 16 (i.e., the fantasy playoffs). If your league playoffs run from Weeks 15 to 17, first, my condolences. Second, please have your commissioner resolve that egregious error.

One final note: Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh are on bye this week, so their schedule strengths for Weeks 11 to 13 are based on only two games. Therefore, I'd drop their rankings down a little bit for that time frame to account for the fact that owning their players puts you at a scoring disadvantage in relation to the rest of your league. Obviously, this is more so the case for the Texans, Saints, or Steelers you might have on your roster than for the Colts. Zero points is more like the upper bound of fantasy scoring for the latter. (Zing!)

OK, enjoy. Hope this info helps. For those of you fortunate enough to make the playoffs, I'll be updating this one more time during Week 14.

Weeks 11-13 Weeks 14-16
OFF PASS Rk RUN Rk PASS Rk RUN Rk
ARI 3.6% 9 -3.2% 18 4.4% 10 -9.8% 2
ATL 9.4% 16 -5.2% 9 10.9% 18 0.5% 25
BAL 4.4% 11 -9.8% 3 19.8% 29 6.3% 31
BUF 5.7% 12 -7.7% 6 21.5% 31 -0.9% 20
CAR 18.2% 27 0.1% 22 8.1% 14 -7.2% 6
CHI 20.6% 31 3.3% 26 16.4% 28 -2.6% 16
CIN -8.7% 2 -4.4% 15 7.6% 13 6.7% 32
CLE -8.9% 1 -14.9% 2 -2.3% 4 -3.5% 13
DAL 14.2% 24 -0.5% 21 14.1% 22 0.1% 22
DEN 7.6% 15 -3.9% 16 8.5% 16 0.6% 26
DET 18.3% 29 6.9% 31 20.2% 30 1.9% 28
GB 6.2% 13 -4.5% 14 9.8% 17 0.4% 24
HOU -3.5% 5 -18.0% 1 23.8% 32 5.9% 30
IND 20.5% 30 10.6% 32 -7.5% 3 -9.8% 3
JAC 3.8% 10 2.2% 24 16.4% 27 -7.9% 5
KC 2.0% 8 -0.6% 20 3.0% 8 -1.3% 19
MIA 10.4% 17 3.5% 27 14.8% 25 3.7% 29
MIN 12.8% 21 -4.9% 10 0.1% 6 -4.2% 11
NE 23.3% 32 4.2% 28 14.4% 24 -4.2% 12
NO -7.0% 3 -7.3% 7 13.2% 21 -9.9% 1
NYG 12.7% 20 2.6% 25 -9.1% 1 -4.8% 10
NYJ 13.3% 23 -1.5% 19 11.4% 19 -0.5% 21
OAK 11.6% 19 -4.8% 12 7.3% 12 -2.5% 17
PHI 11.5% 18 -3.5% 17 -1.1% 5 -5.0% 9
PIT 16.9% 25 -4.6% 13 5.6% 11 -1.8% 18
SD 0.0% 6 -7.9% 5 -7.8% 2 -8.1% 4
SEA 6.5% 14 5.3% 30 1.5% 7 -5.1% 8
SF 1.8% 7 2.0% 23 12.0% 20 0.3% 23
STL 12.8% 22 -8.4% 4 8.4% 15 -5.5% 7
TB 17.5% 26 4.5% 29 3.3% 9 0.8% 27
TEN 18.2% 27 -4.9% 11 15.6% 26 -3.0% 14
WAS -3.8% 4 -5.6% 8 14.2% 23 -2.7% 15
NFL 8.5% -- -2.5% -- 8.7% -- -2.3% --

Posted by: Danny Tuccitto on 17 Nov 2011

7 comments, Last at 18 Nov 2011, 10:16pm by Danny Tuccitto

Comments

1
by Sifter :: Thu, 11/17/2011 - 4:16pm

Thanks Danny, will go through these to see how they help me. Looks like my trade for Anquan Boldin will work well for the playoffs.

2
by NRG :: Thu, 11/17/2011 - 6:29pm

Holy Detroit!

3
by RickD :: Fri, 11/18/2011 - 1:20am

It's a good time to have Tom Brady.

4
by dcgushue :: Fri, 11/18/2011 - 1:10pm

Maybe P.Rivers can turn it around against some weaker opponents.

6
by c0rrections (not verified) :: Fri, 11/18/2011 - 4:56pm

I tried to unload him for pennies on the dollar (I've got Eli and picked up Cutler recently as a backup and so have no need for him) and still didn't get anyone to bite. Not even the dude who lost Schaub and Cassel.

5
by dw123 (not verified) :: Fri, 11/18/2011 - 4:36pm

After your first post, I ended up making my own spreadsheet and have been updating it weekly using FO's stats. I actually did the same exact thing you did - made one rankings for playoffs and one for the remaining regular season games. Glad my calculations are the same as yours!

7
by Danny Tuccitto :: Fri, 11/18/2011 - 10:16pm

Same here. If not, that would be...um...embarrassing for me.