Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

07 Jul 2011

FO Mailbag: Three-and-Outs Forced

Jeremy Norris: Yahoo has introduced some new scoring categories for this year's fantasy football season. Among the new options for Team Defenses are Three-and-Outs and Tackles For Loss. I, at least, would be very interested in using these categories, but doing so would risk unbalancing the value of DEFs relative to the other positions unless you can look at the history of those numbers to see what the averages are, how much separates the good DEFs from the average ones, etc. Unfortunately, I can't seem to find either of those stats online (having checked espn, pfr, yahoo, and nfl.com). Are you guys able to grab those numbers from your DVOA database from last year? Not just for my sake: there are a lot of FF commissioners who read the site.

By the way, other new Yahoo categories this year include Pick Sixes Thrown, Fourth Down Stops on defense, and Defensive Yards Allowed per Game.

Aaron Schatz: Well, those are some interesting categories. I know KUBIAK already projects how many games a team will allow 100-199 yards, 200-299 yards, 300-399 yards, and so forth. We do track three-and-outs, as part of our drive stats, although the numbers don't fit on the drive stats page on the site. We usually run the top 10 and the bottom 10 in the statistical appendix of Football Outsiders Almanac. The rankings somewhat follow the rankings for the best defensive DVOA ratings, except that teams which get a lot of turnovers and sacks will rank lower on the frequency of three-and-outs. Pittsburgh, for example, was just average in three-and-outs per drive.

Here are the rates of three-and-outs per drive for 2010, along with defensive DVOA ratings for comparison purposes.

Team 3Outs 3Outs/Drive Rank DVOA Rank
NYJ 63 32.3% 1 -7.8% 5
SD 54 30.9% 2 -6.4% 7
CHI 57 29.8% 3 -7.7% 6
GB 51 28.0% 4 -10.8% 2
OAK 55 27.2% 5 1.5% 15
NYG 52 26.3% 6 -8.0% 3
SF 49 26.1% 7 1.4% 13
WAS 50 25.3% 8 9.2% 26
MIA 44 25.1% 9 -1.9% 10
SEA 47 25.1% 10 15.0% 29
STL 47 25.1% 11 6.0% 20
CIN 44 24.9% 12 4.8% 19
KC 46 24.7% 13 6.1% 21
PHI 46 24.5% 14 1.4% 14
MIN 44 24.4% 15 0.9% 11
JAC 41 24.4% 16 21.2% 32
Team 3Outs 3Outs/Drive Rank DVOA Rank
PIT 41 23.4% 17 -18.5% 1
IND 40 23.1% 18 8.2% 24
NO 38 22.9% 19 -2.6% 9
BAL 41 22.7% 20 -7.9% 4
CAR 42 22.3% 21 1.8% 16
DET 41 22.2% 22 6.6% 22
ATL 38 21.7% 23 1.2% 12
BUF 40 21.5% 24 10.1% 28
DEN 39 20.6% 25 19.6% 30
DAL 34 18.9% 26 9.9% 27
ARI 37 18.7% 27 8.2% 25
NE 32 18.3% 28 4.7% 18
TEN 32 17.7% 29 -4.0% 8
CLE 29 16.9% 30 4.1% 17
TB 29 16.8% 31 6.9% 23
HOU 28 16.7% 32 21.0% 31

Right now, the one new item we're trying to put into KUBIAK for 2011 is the ability to give different point values to receptions at different positions. Are people interested in projections of three-and-outs? Will you use those in your leagues? What other new stats would people like to see us try to project?

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 07 Jul 2011

8 comments, Last at 14 Jul 2011, 9:47am by Sha-blam-o

Comments

1
by Shyam (not verified) :: Thu, 07/07/2011 - 3:44pm

Projections of 3 and outs would be great.

2
by Aaron Brooks' Good Twin (not verified) :: Thu, 07/07/2011 - 4:37pm

Detroit and Philly perfectly correlated their DVOA and 3-out ratings. I'm guessing they were about average in turnover rate.

3
by spanky (not verified) :: Thu, 07/07/2011 - 5:06pm

varying PPR by position would be very helpful

6
by Anonymous1 (not verified) :: Sat, 07/09/2011 - 8:44pm

Agreed. We give 2 PPR to TE, and I've heard of some leagues that only give .5 PPR to WRs.

4
by parttimemovieguy :: Thu, 07/07/2011 - 9:50pm

Don't care, just need NFL to come back!

Go Raiders!

@ptmovieguy

5
by sam :: Fri, 07/08/2011 - 4:14pm

Curious: JAX being smack in the middle for 3/Out percentage, and absolutely bottom-of-the-NFL-bad in overall defense.

--
sam! or the original sam from the old FO

7
by Mike Elseroad (not verified) :: Mon, 07/11/2011 - 9:16pm

I can't believe that the Redskins (#8) are in the top 10 in any defensive category.

8
by Sha-blam-o (not verified) :: Thu, 07/14/2011 - 9:47am

I like how KUBIAK allows you to bump up the playoffs as more important but it assumes certain weeks are playoffs. Is there a way to make KUBIAK dictate which weeks are playoffs for the league settings? That would be helpful perhaps.