05 Sep 2011
Well, it's official, folks. Peyton Manning is going to stop practicing due to slow recovery from his neck injury. He started experiencing extreme back pain this weekend; I don't know if that's because of the nerves or because of a cascade from altering his throwing motion because of the nerve recovery. He's listed as doubtful for this week's game.
This gives me the perfect opening to share with you some startling numbers that Danny Tuccitto discovered while putting together the AGL article we ran last week. As you may know, the AGL numbers are based on the likelihood that a player listed on the injury report with a certain designation will actually play. But the number of players listed as doubtful who have actually played has been steadily decreasing since 2002, to the point where last year no starter who was listed as doubtful on the final injury report of the week actually played in the game.
|Year||Starters Doubtful||% Played||Reserves Doubtful||% Played|
Danny and I will be looking at the implications of this as we look to improve our injury analysis over the next few months. But the short-term implication is that Peyton Manning is not playing Sunday. Another stat to back that up: Since 2004, the Colts have not had a single player who was listed as doubtful on the injury report and ended up actually playing.
38 comments, Last at 07 Sep 2011, 3:18pm by Theo
Thanks a lot, Dak Prescott. Now more people will think the fourth round is still a gold mine for quarterbacks, but the data says otherwise. The update to our quarterback draft study for 1994-2016 shows little has changed: finding a good QB is really hard.