Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

21 Nov 2011

Texans Bye Week Report

Did a little Q&A with Steph Stradley over at the Houston Chronicle, topics include Matt Leinart, encouraging defensive statistics, and why the special teams tapered off after a hot start.

Posted by: Rivers McCown on 21 Nov 2011

8 comments, Last at 25 Nov 2011, 5:40pm by Admorey

Comments

1
by Mr Shush :: Mon, 11/21/2011 - 3:21pm

I'll be interested to see whether the negative impact on the running game of replacing Schaub with Leinart is greater or smaller than the positive impact of Johnson returning and forcing safeties out of the box. Johnson and Foster have yet to be simultaneously healthy this season.

2
by JIPanick :: Mon, 11/21/2011 - 4:29pm

They've "only" played three top-10 pass offenses?

There are ten top 10 pass offenses out of 32 teams. The Texans have played ten games. Therefore, they should have played

(10/32)*10 =

(drumroll)

3.125 top 10 passing attacks. Man, what a wusstastic schedule, being 1/8th of a game short of what could be reasonably expected as an average number of games against top offenses! If only Tennessee had taken them to overtime rather than getting smothered, then we'd really know what they were made of!

(Alternately, since the Texans themselves are in that top 10 and (9/31) * 10 = 2.903 implies they have faced a marginally *higher* than average number of top 10 passing attacks.)

4
by justme_cd :: Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:49pm

Meh ... He came in to that paragraph qualifying that any criticisms would be nitpicky. You definitely have a valid point but reading your comment first made me think he was hating, when even the criticism was sort of praising by faint criticism

5
by Mr Shush :: Tue, 11/22/2011 - 6:37am

He's a Texans fan - he's unlikely to be hating.

7
by justme_cd :: Wed, 11/23/2011 - 11:44am

Agreed... which is the reason I was confused why JIPanick wanted to make the criticism seem unreasonable.It wasn't unreasonable, just not expressed in the most delicate way to appease the stat minded nitpickers that make FO great.

6
by BucNasty :: Tue, 11/22/2011 - 6:32pm

Except that it doesn't matter that the Texans can't face themselves. Average implies the expected slate of every team in the league, the rest of whom theoretically could face the Texans offense. So perhaps they've faced a slightly higher than average rate of top ten passing offenses than other defenses whose teams also possess a top 10 passing attack, but I'm pretty sure they're still marginally below the expected average.

3
by Shattenjager :: Mon, 11/21/2011 - 4:57pm

I'm actually very interested to see Leinart play. I know the "bust" narrative has long since won out in describing him, but there's just not a lot behind it, so I'm fascinated to see how he actually performs.

8
by Admorey (not verified) :: Fri, 11/25/2011 - 5:40pm

It's the all the Texans fans on FO! (Except Rivers)

I expect Leinart to be above average - good enough to make opponents regret stacking the tackle box - especially with Johnson back.