Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Sep 2005, 11:18am by Aaron Schatz

Defenders Insist Ugly Stats Not a True Sign

I think this article from the San Diego Union-Tribune brings up something that people often forget when discussing preseason results. Yes, the Chargers defense seems to be struggling in the preseason, but there is no game planning. Nobody schemes the opposing quarterback, nobody studies film tendencies, they just throw guys out there and run vanilla strategies to see how they look on the field.

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15 comments, Last at 03 Sep 2005, 10:37pm by Pat

01 Sep 2005, 03:11pm by Michael David Smith

Owners Cancel Meeting, Cite CBA

I can't imagine an NFL labor stoppage. There's just too much money to be made for the sides not to come together on a deal. Having said that, it sure seems like the current collective bargaining agreement talks are hitting a lot of stumbling blocks. The latest is that the owners have cancelled their upcoming meeting because there's no CBA progress to discuss.

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36 comments, Last at 03 Sep 2005, 1:36am by IzzionSona

01 Sep 2005, 01:21am by Aaron Schatz

Corey Simon to Colts

Holy Perfect Match, Batman.

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81 comments, Last at 15 Sep 2005, 1:13pm by Jim A

31 Aug 2005, 05:30pm by P. Ryan Wilson

Pope Suspended Year for Violating NFL Drug Policy

Wow. LB Kendyll Pope can't practice or play with the Colts until August 2006 because he's tested positive for a banned substance at least three times. Considering he's a second-year player, it sounds like Pope's been pretty busy. The NFL's substance abuse policy is a wee bit more stringent than some of the other professional sports leagues.

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9 comments, Last at 01 Sep 2005, 12:38am by Harris

31 Aug 2005, 03:45pm by admin

SITE NEWS: Game Charters Needed

Many readers have asked about plans to chart games to gather stats not available from standard play-by-play. We've been experimenting in the preseason, we have a system that takes about four hours per game, and if we get enough volunteers we may split it by half so we would just be asking for two hours a week of your time. Everyone will get access to all the charting data from all 32 teams, plus access to game-by-game DVOA and other FO stuff. But we need more volunteers to make this work. If you are interested, please email Aaron using the contact form.

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31 Aug 2005, 12:25pm by Aaron Schatz

FO Fantasy Chat at AuctionPlayers.com

Here's the archive of the fantasy football chat I did last night for the website auctionplayers.com. Questions in here about Daunte Culpepper, Matt Hasselbeck, Tiki Barber, LaMont Jordan, and how to deal with our projections when everyone else in your league is using a more standard cheat sheet. Plus, Trent Green's low projection explained.

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2 comments, Last at 31 Aug 2005, 2:31pm by JasonK

30 Aug 2005, 07:52pm by P. Ryan Wilson

TMQ: The Lost Episode of NYPD Blue!

In this week's TMQ, Gregg Easterbrook wonders how soon until the 400-pound lineman becomes the norm (Bill Walsh has some ideas); gives us his annual thoughts on professional basketball (Boring); points us to a scientific study on the two-point conversion that basically says teams should go for one during the first three quarters, but then start going for two during the last quarter (Allegedly, this is the Belichickian strategy); and in between, the usual random observations we come to expect from TMQ during the preseason. (Thanks to reader RichC for reminding me that today is, uh, Tuesday ...

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102 comments, Last at 01 Sep 2005, 6:01pm by GBS

30 Aug 2005, 05:20pm by P. Ryan Wilson

"I Hate Y'all" -- Falcons Cut Peerless Price

Not to be confused with "He Hate Me." The Falcons have cut Peerless Price, the guy they acquired from the Bills for a first-round pick back in 2003. Peter Warrick, another big name wideout, was also given his walking papers today. I'm guessing both of these guys will end up in New England, where it seems washed up players go to revitalize their careers. (Free registration/Bugmenot required)

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18 comments, Last at 04 Sep 2005, 12:12pm by BillinNYC

29 Aug 2005, 11:02pm by P. Ryan Wilson

Preseason Stats That Can't be Ignored

Pat Kirwan of NFL.com isn't so concerned with wins and losses in the preseason, but he does think statistics like interceptions and sacks are more indicative of regular season success. He finds it a little troubling that the Colts have surrendered 20 sacks in four games and that Byron Leftwich has been taken down six times in three games. Kirwan also notes that Kyle Boller and Patrick Ramsey have both thrown four interceptions each while "Ben Roethlisberger hasn't picked up from where he left off as the starting quarterback of a 15-1 team in 2004, but he has no interceptions this summer.

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40 comments, Last at 02 Sep 2005, 10:55am by Pat

29 Aug 2005, 02:10pm by Aaron Schatz

Third Down, Red Zone Efficiency are Significant

No, really? Golly, John, if only one of those "sabermetric converts of baseball" could figure out a method of rating NFL team efficiency that really did judge teams by more than just total yardage. Maybe somebody could measure teams by yards per play, just like you suggest, and give more weight to third downs and red zone performance, and maybe adjust based on game situation and even opponent strength, so that they ended up with a statistic that did a better job of predicting future performance than wins or points or total yards.

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44 comments, Last at 01 Sep 2005, 5:53pm by Pat